The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Here's a recapitulation of how things have developed in light of the Great Naval Battle.

Before the naval battle took place, I was just winding up the big operation to deliver supplies to the Marshalls and to extract overstacked troops from several of the bases there. I had bogged down the invasion of Kwajalein. The plan was to "outflank" John's bases in the Mrshalls by invading Wake Island. Then I'd turn my attention fully to the reduction of Kwaj and then (probably) hit Roi-Namur and Eniwetok. There was also the option of switching over to the Aluetians, where I had a massive army prepped and shipping prepositioned. All of this with an eye towards orchestrating a "decisive" naval battle on the most favorable terms possible.

That naval battle came sooner than expected and the outcome was more favorable than expected. Immediately thereafter, I decided on a new course of action that meant standing down in NoPac, moving all those troops and ships to Pearl Harbor, and then embarking within a reasonable time (about a month) on a major invasion deep into enemy territory. Targets were chosen, the changes were made, and I'm now in the process of shifting the NoPac troops to Pearl.

While this was underway, I had a window to hit Wake. But John didn't cooperate, and the Allied troops were mauled during the landing. I had tanks and combat engineers prepping for Wake at Pearl and Tarawa, respectively, so I'm now in the process of getting them forward for "D-Day Version 2.0." I think the troops will be in position for the assault in five or six days.

The next big invasion should be ready to depart Pearl Harbor in about three weeks. I think my carriers might need two to four days in port to address minor SYS damage. But they won't do their 10/43 upgrades (except Enterprise and Honet, which are now in the process of upgrading after reporting to Pearl for repairs following the great battle).

So what's John doing? I think he sent KB back to Tokyo and vicinity for repairs. A respectable KB will be available for duty, but enough carriers have been sunk or heavily damaged to suggest that he won't attack Death Star unless conditions are very well to his liking (meaning, multiple big airfields to support). He's attending to defense in depth, though to this point it's early for him and I think he's focusing where I want him to focus.

That's where things stand at the moment.

[Canoerebel]

10/7/43

Flying Trapeze: The "operation within an operation" went well today. Tomorrow will be the key date, however, as all TFs reach the point closest to multiple enemy airfields. John has loaded up Eniwetok and also has a lot of strike aircraft at Roi-Namur, so he may be angling for a strike. Death Star has well over 500 fighters, so I don't think his strike aircraft will pick a fight, but I could be wrong.

The combat engineer TF moved north of Wotje while Death Star moved south from Wake's vicinity. Tomorrow they'll meet (almost) near the dot hex of Taongi. If that goes well, then the combined fleets move back towards Wake for D-Day 2.0 in about five days.

More than 100 Bettys from Eniwetok targeted the ground troops at Wake, doing little damage. PBY Liberators (just a handful) did the same from Wotje. John has an opening that should last two more days to airlief in supply plus reinforcements. All Allied BB TFs will be fully rearmed and on station for bombardment runs to coincide with D-Day 2.0.

CVE Sangamon continues to make four hexes per day. She's four days out of Pearl Harbor now.

Big Tent: 6th Division arrived at Pearl today; three more divisions are at sea - 41st will arrive tomorrow, 5th Indian will arrive in less than a week (this division was 100% prepped for Amchitka and sat at Prince Rupert for months); 1st Cavalry is split into two TFs, the first of which will arrive in a week, the second leaves San Fran tomorrow. That will be the last of the TFs from West Coast. Supply and fuel are pre-loaded at Pearl. BB South Dakota and CVs Enterprise and Hornet are 14 days from being ready. A new CVL is about five days out of Pearl.

[Canoerebel]

Map of Flying Trapeze, 10/7/43.

[Canoerebel]

10/8/43

A turn fraught with tension, danger, and impact on future moves goes smoothly but illustrates the incredible complexity of AE.

Flying Trapeze: TF carrying combat engineers toward Wake makes five hexes, almost meeting Death Star, which came south from Wake to provide CAP. The amphibious TF is only 11 hexes from Wake, so D-Day 2.0 could occur in three days. But I may wait a fourth. Bettys from Eniwetok are driving up tension among the Canadian infantry on Wake, so the unit may need a few days of rest once the Hellcats are in range to provide CAP.

Really, though, I'm very pleased that things went so well - that it was a quiet day. I deemed it necessary for the combat engineers to take the most direct route to Wake, rather than a safer circuitous route, because time is becoming an issue. This way I'll know if Wake is going to be doable in about four days. D-Day 2.0 will include the assaulting engineers and Sherman tanks, along with the Canadians attacking by land. There will be lots of bomardments and hopefully the divebombers will strike en masse once or twice.

Big Tent: Wake is becoming a time issue because today Pearl Harbor became overstacked, and two infantry divisions and lots of support troops are still inbound. In no more than ten days, I want to load the assault troops for the next big op. Lots of supply ships and fuel ships have been pre-loaded and are disbanded in port.

Miscellaneous: CVE Sangamon is "crossing" French Frigate to what I think is the safer north side passage to Pearl. Three DEs from Pearl rendezvoused today and will provide ASW. Damage to the stricken CVE continues to drop.

SigInt: I'm not seeing any disturbing reports that John has spidey senses about Big Tent's targets.

[Canoerebel]

10/9/43

Another excellently quiet and productive day, but DefCon is skyrocketing as enemy activity increases and SigInt provides a rather remarkable tidbit.

Flying Trapeze: All TFs make good progress towards Wake. In particular, the combat engineers are just six hexes out. If the TF makes five hexes tomorrow (iffy, because two AMs need to refuel at sea), D-Day 2.0 will be day after tomorrow. If refueling slows things down, then the assault will be in three days.

All ships will be in place, but there are a host of enemy subs all around. Fortunately, no misadventures. But John is vectoring in his submarines.

More interesting is a SigInt report that an enemy CA is bound for Wake (but no indication, of course, as to how far away it is). What is this? Fast transport with supplies? Combat TF to engage Allied amphibious TFs? Something else?
I'm still weighing options for tomorrow, but will probably post two combat TFs at Wake along with some ASW and AMs (to check for mining activity). I could detach Death Star to move a few hexes west of Wake, but I'm not sure I want to leave the amphibs uncovered. Perhaps leave the CVEs to cover the amphibs with the fleet carriers to move forward more boldly? Hmm. Not sure yet.

CVE Sangamon's speed is up to six hexes a day and she's just seven hexes from Pearl. So close! Fingers crossed.

SoPac: Recon seems to indicate John is involved in a fullscale retreat from New Caledonia, Luganville, etc.

[Canoerebel]

Several times today, John's email have indicated that he has a heightened interest in flipping turns. I think he has something in the works. I'll probably find out soon.

[BillBrown]

Considering that much of his KB should be in repair yards, I would think that moving the DS to the West of Wake would be interesting. Your CVEs should be able to protect the amphib TFs.
But, that is my uneducated guess.

[Canoerebel]

My guess is that John saw my TFs moving away from Wake over the past few days and wanted to shoot in supply or reinforcements via fast transport. If that hunch is right, he'll withdraw the TF. But it could be something more menacing.

I've erred on the side of keeping all my ships together, except a few combat TFs and minesweepers that will probe Wake. I feel like there's a risk of getting too fancy - of separating my TFs and then John being able to attack in detail. Until I know what's going on, I'll play conservatively while give careful attention to setting up D-Day 2.0.

[HansBolter]

Have you considered going after his air concentration on either of the two islands with a BB bombardment?

I know this is harder for the Allies than the Japanese because you can never start your bombardment runs outside of the range of anti-shipping air, but your carriers could be used to cover the start point of the run in.

Completely trashing his LBA threat would hugely tilt the balance in your favor.

[ny59giants]

Not flipping turns, but leaving Sunday for vacation. I got an extra yesterday.

[Canoerebel]

10/10/43

Flying Trapeze: Japanese subs in wolfpack concentrations effectively attack the Allied fleet, inflicting damage that will warm John's heart deep into the weekend. The day opens with a sub sinking a DE at Wake Island. Another sub puts one TT into CVE Casablance (the sub is then sunk by ASW). Then another subs puts two more fish into the CVE, sending her under. Then subs put a total of four TTs into Wasp, sinking her. There are many ASW attacks during this fray, but only the one that was sunk suffered serious damage. As a result of these attacks, the Allies also lose 100 aircraft aboard ship. (This is a signal day - the first fleet carrier I've lost in many years. John has done a good job vectoring in his subs - and I bet they have very good commanders, darn it.)

SigInt was correct that a Japanese CA was inbound to Wake, though it turned out to be CL Sendai and some DDs bringing in troops. This TF is turned away by CL Phoenix TF, which damages Sendai, slowing her so that Helldivers hit her in the afternoon, apparently sinking her. Another strike claims a Japanese DD. As best I can tell, Wake wasn't reinforced (Sendai showed additional troop losses when she was sunk while retiring).

The Allied invasion TFs end up a hex south of Wake, so that D-Day 2.0 will take place tomorrow. The invasion will feature at least three bombardments. Another slow BB will be embedded with the assault ships. The landings will be combat engineers and Sherman tanks. The Canadian brigade already ashore has recovered from disruption and will deliberate attack. (I left the American RCT ashore because it's recovering rapidly and has a great deal of supply; I've set it to reserve and hope this prevents it from attacking; if not, the disabled troops will be killed, leading to high losses.) I hope that Helldivers set to alternate ground attack will also help disrupt the enemy garrison.

I am not confident about this attack. The six forts and the immense disruption during original D-Day were sobering, even though the enemy AV was adjusted to just 45. My expereince with follow-on invasions and bombardments is that the adjusted AV doesn't seem to drop nearly as much. On the other hand, I don't think John's been able to reinforce and supply might be an issue. If the landings experience any success (such as reducing forts), it'll probably be because of the bombardments and bombings. If I don't get forts to drop, though, I may just pull out my troops. Because if this fresh attack doesn't drop forts, I don't have time to replenish and try again.

I think. I'll weigh all options in a few days. Further sub encounters and exactly how D-Day 2.0 goes will determine what's next.

Death Star will move west, towards Eniwetok, hoping that John will be thinking "Wake" or "east of Wake."

So, on the day, I lose CV Wasp and CVE Casablance. John loses CL Sendai, a DD and a sub. Confirmation also comes in that CVL Chiyoda went down during the late September naval battle (bringing the confirmed total to 2 CV, 2 CVL, and 8 CVE). I think there's one additional CVL confirmation yet to come and there is some hope that another fleet carrier or two might have gone down.

Tough fighting! War. In. The. Pacific. Reluctant Admiral's Edition.

[BillBrown]

I have never seen John III be reluctant.

I am sure there are many "Bonsai" shouts in his thread.

[Canoerebel]

No doubt! Those are well-earned and most appropriate to his AAR. I'm glad he didn't use them in his emails to me, though he did exhibit some gusto typical of him after victory.

Here's two things I'm wrestling with as I begin to issue orders for the next turn:
1. Should I set the Canadian brigade to deliberate attack or shock attack? Fatigue and disruption are low; prep is 100%; and the unit has 111 AV. (The combat engineers and Sherman tanks will auto-shock attack as they land, of course.) I'm leaning towards deliberate attack, but I'm open to your thoughts.

2. How bad does John want to contest this invasion? Would he send in combat ships or even carriers? I don't think so, as he'll fear high losses. But I'll need to mix some combat TFs with the bombardment TFs just in case John does commit a powerful CA TF.

[poodlebrain]

Should I set the Canadian brigade to deliberate attack or shock attack? Fatigue and disruption are low; prep is 100%; and the unit has 111 AV. (The combat engineers and Sherman tanks will auto-shock attack as they land, of course.) I'm leaning towards deliberate attack, but I'm open to your thoughts.

My understanding is that if one unit makes a shock attack then all units make a shock attack. This is done to justify the (+) combat modifier for a shock attack. I base this on observations of combat involving units that entered a defenders hex without crossing a river being treated as making shock attacks when they are joined in combat by ground units crossing a river into the defender's hex. The combat is resolved as a single event, and it is reported as a shock attack.

[Canoerebel]

Okay, I can live with that.

But I hope that US RCT set to "reserve" and "do not pursue" won't get involved. If it does, I'll have learned an ugly lesson.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Okay, I can live with that.

But I hope that US RCT set to "reserve" and "do not pursue" won't get involved. If it does, I'll have learned an ugly lesson.

I honestly do not remember ever trying to put units in reserve when attacking an atoll. I know that units in reserve do not attack when river crossing shock attacks occur.

If you think the U.S. RCT can make a positive contribution to the combat, then I'd recommend including it in the attack applying the adage better safe than sorry. You will want to withdraw it to a major base for recovery in any event.

[Canoerebel]

I'm going to try it in reserve, based upon a post Hans Bolter made a page or two back. I got the impression. that putting it into reserve mode will accomplish keeping it out of combat (if I misinterpreted Hans's comment, that's on me).

If the attack fails, I probably won't withdraw the Canadians or the combat engineers. I probably will withdraw the Americans and the tank unit.

I intend to pull the trigger on Big Tent in about three weeks (two if things go really well). But there is a fallback plan. If something happens to make Big Tent untenable, then I have lots of units prepping for Roi-Namur, Eniwetok and Marcus. In that case, I would focus on these bases (plus Wake) closer to home.

But that's only if things go seriously awry. My strong preference is to strike deep.

[HansBolter]

Reserve has always worked to keep units out of combat in large land locked sieges in China.

I have to admit that I have never tried it on an atoll to hold a unit back from a mandatory shock triggered by more landing units.

Its a great technique in sieges. If, on the turn you decide to pull the trigger on a deliberate attack to test the waters, the attack fails, the alpha attacking unit takes the brunt of the losses.

You can then shuffle it to reserve while the remainder of your troops recover fatigue and disruption while bombarding, the reserve unit will recover more quickly than it would participating in the bombardments.

That way, after bombarding for 3-5-7 days and you're ready to try another assault, the unit put in reserve may actually be ready to participate again.

[Lokasenna]

Putting a unit into reserve will stop it from attacking during a subsequent landing on an atoll, unless you are landing more AV from that unit. Then it will be switched back to combat mode (I think) and participate.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Hans and Lokasena. It sounds it will work. I'll know for sure soon. This is sometimes the best way to learn and have the learning stick.