Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[JocMeister]

Page 2...ooops. [:D]

Anyway. We are approaching the end of 42. If things go to plan I will try and do a year report during the weekend and then I´ll try to return to somewhat regular updates. Regular everyday updates with screens and stuff might not happen until after summer though. Hectic schedule during the last 4 weeks before vacation and then...vacation. [:)]

Stay tuned for the weekend update. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Invasion Canada?[/font]
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This just popped up via SIGINT....

6/12th Division is planning for an attack on Victoria.
11/1st Division is planning for an attack on Victoria.

1st Division was confirmed at Adak less then a month ago.
12th Division is completely unknown to me. I have some SIGINT several months old from Mukhden(?). Since its aboard ships its 100% confirmed bought out now at least.

We now have a full army prepping for Victoria including an Army HQ, 3 divisions, 1 tank RGT, 1 raiding RGTs several BFs and arty units.

This continues to make no sense.

[BillBrown]

Do you think he might land somewhere else on the West Coast and attack with low prep? If he is at 100 now for
Victoria, he can change at the last minute and have 25 prep.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

Do you think he might land somewhere else on the West Coast and attack with low prep? If he is at 100 now for
Victoria, he can change at the last minute and have 25 prep.

And suffer a gazillion casualties on the beach. I've lost 50% of a division to an undefended beach before, because of lack of prep. If the landing site is defended and he goes in with only 25% prep - may the God-Emperor help his troops, 'cause they're gonna be dead in a week.

[JocMeister]

Yeah, as Loka says trying to land somewhere without 100% prepp is pretty much suicide. So that is highly unlikely. Not really sure what Jeff is up for but something is definitively happening right now.

12/6th Guards Division is loaded on xAK Liverpool Maru at Pearl Harbor (180,107).
13/4th Division is loaded on xAK Yasukawa Maru at Pearl Harbor (180,107).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Pearl Harbor (180,107).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Dutch Harbor (171,50).

Funny thing is 6th Guards were planning for Noumea less then a month ago. The planning is obviously fake or sloppiness. Why move them to PH if he intends to try and take Noumea?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Yeah, as Loka says trying to land somewhere without 100% prepp is pretty much suicide. So that is highly unlikely. Not really sure what Jeff is up for but something is definitively happening right now.

12/6th Guards Division is loaded on xAK Liverpool Maru at Pearl Harbor (180,107).
13/4th Division is loaded on xAK Yasukawa Maru at Pearl Harbor (180,107).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Pearl Harbor (180,107).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Dutch Harbor (171,50).

Funny thing is 6th Guards were planning for Noumea less then a month ago. The planning is obviously fake or sloppiness. Why move them to PH if he intends to try and take Noumea?

Hypothetically, a mega convoy with multiple purposes to save on fuel? It's not actually that far out of the way, assuming an origin point of somewhere in Japan.

[tiemanjw]

And suffer a gazillion casualties on the beach. I've lost 50% of a division to an undefended beach before, because of lack of prep. If the landing site is defended and he goes in with only 25% prep - may the God-Emperor help his troops, 'cause they're gonna be dead in a week.

There are a few things he can do with limited / no prep. If the base is undefended, anything can take it (even at 0 prep), then land what ever you want behind it. Even a defended base can be attacked, though at much higher cost. Still may be worth it though to have you out of position.
Also, you can reduce landing casualties by landing with 1 unit (prep or no with the applicable penalties) than sliding ships with other units into the unloading TF. It takes an extra day, but can be useful when you want to land a floating area reserve as the allies (for example if assaulting 3 bases in the Gilberts you bring along an extra division with 100% prep for anything... when you find that one base being a pain in the neck switch prep to that base (getting 25-33% points), than merge the ships carrying that unit into the unit unloading on the beach you want to hit. It will still take a hit when landing, but no where near as bad as if you just landed it directly).

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Hypothetically, a mega convoy with multiple purposes to save on fuel? It's not actually that far out of the way, assuming an origin point of somewhere in Japan.

Too lazy to look it up but if I remember correctly the 6th Guards show up at Cam Rahn Bay? If so going via PH is a quite a strange route?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Hypothetically, a mega convoy with multiple purposes to save on fuel? It's not actually that far out of the way, assuming an origin point of somewhere in Japan.

Too lazy to look it up but if I remember correctly the 6th Guards show up at Cam Rahn Bay? If so going via PH is a quite a strange route?

The Guards Tank arrives in CRB. I'm not sure about the 6th Guards. I know that some Guards units arrive in Japan, but you are correct in thinking that several arrive in SE Asia (because they do).

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Invasion Canada?[/font]
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I don´t really think there can be much more doubt.

3/2nd Division is loaded on AK Tenshinsan Maru moving to Victoria.
4/48th/B Division is planning for an attack on Prince Rupert.
5/2nd Division is loaded on AK Onoe Maru moving to Victoria.
4/16th Division is planning for an attack on Prince Rupert.
2/9th Division is planning for an attack on Vancouver.

Its makes sense in a way. It explains all the odd things Jeff has been doing for the last few months. But it doesn´t make sense because it doesn´t make any sense whatsoever. There is simply no point in taking Victory and/or Vancouver at this point. It doesn´t give him anything. I can´t stop him from grabbing Victory as I purposely didn´t reinforce it very much. Just added a Canadian BDE and built some forts. So he will gain a few VPs from the troops and industry there.

But in exchange he will trigger the Emergency reinforcements...and Vancouver. Not much there even if he can take it. A few VPs and 3 Catalina factories. He is not going to trigger the reinforcements for this little gain. And where are the remaining 10 divisions?

Interesting turns ahead I think!

[Lokasenna]

I like how you keep calling it "Victory" [;)]

[JocMeister]

Haha, missed that! An omen perhaps? [:D]

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"]Invasion Canada?[/font]
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I don´t really think there can be much more doubt.

3/2nd Division is loaded on AK Tenshinsan Maru moving to Victoria.
4/48th/B Division is planning for an attack on Prince Rupert.
5/2nd Division is loaded on AK Onoe Maru moving to Victoria.
4/16th Division is planning for an attack on Prince Rupert.
2/9th Division is planning for an attack on Vancouver.

Its makes sense in a way. It explains all the odd things Jeff has been doing for the last few months. But it doesn´t make sense because it doesn´t make any sense whatsoever. There is simply no point in taking Victory and/or Vancouver at this point. It doesn´t give him anything. I can´t stop him from grabbing Victory as I purposely didn´t reinforce it very much. Just added a Canadian BDE and built some forts. So he will gain a few VPs from the troops and industry there.

But in exchange he will trigger the Emergency reinforcements...and Vancouver. Not much there even if he can take it. A few VPs and 3 Catalina factories. He is not going to trigger the reinforcements for this little gain. And where are the remaining 10 divisions?

Interesting turns ahead I think!

Some observations:

I don't know your opponent's cost v. benefit analysis with respect to Victoria, but there is real benefit to capturing Victoria for the Japanese. Possession of Victoria would be beneficial to the Japanese because it would limit your ability to use the major ports at Vancouver, Seattle and Tacoma. If the Japanese take it and maximize its garrison, then you will need to launch a major operation to liberate Victoria that will require unrestricted LCUs. There are only two sources of unrestricted LCUs, withdrawing them from other areas or spending Political Points. Neither of those is an attractive option as they will disrupt any plans you might have.

The SIGINT reports all show LCUs being transported by xAK's. The slow unload rate means he will have to use a large number of them if he wants to limit their exposure during an amphibious assault.

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"]Invasion Canada?[/font]
_____________________________________________________________________________

I don´t really think there can be much more doubt.

3/2nd Division is loaded on AK Tenshinsan Maru moving to Victoria.
4/48th/B Division is planning for an attack on Prince Rupert.
5/2nd Division is loaded on AK Onoe Maru moving to Victoria.
4/16th Division is planning for an attack on Prince Rupert.
2/9th Division is planning for an attack on Vancouver.

Its makes sense in a way. It explains all the odd things Jeff has been doing for the last few months. But it doesn´t make sense because it doesn´t make any sense whatsoever. There is simply no point in taking Victory and/or Vancouver at this point. It doesn´t give him anything. I can´t stop him from grabbing Victory as I purposely didn´t reinforce it very much. Just added a Canadian BDE and built some forts. So he will gain a few VPs from the troops and industry there.

But in exchange he will trigger the Emergency reinforcements...and Vancouver. Not much there even if he can take it. A few VPs and 3 Catalina factories. He is not going to trigger the reinforcements for this little gain. And where are the remaining 10 divisions?

Interesting turns ahead I think!

How does Tacoma look? I'm guessing Seattle would be a near impossibility for him, but could he be trying to open Puget sound to hit Tacoma. You get a lot of ships there and he could be trying to kill them off for their VPs?

Also, faint? Poodlebrain gives a good point about the xAKs... where are the military and amphib ships?

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]1942[/font]
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The year past
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An interesting year in many aspects. A somewhat unique opening where Nick (Olorin) started out by invading Peal Harbor. From a VP perspective this wasn´t a very effective opening as the Japanese losses in shipping and aircraft nullified the Allied losses. The net gain was basically the VPs from troop losses at PH. Given the assets involved I believe this wasn´t a very effective opening. Then again I´m a pretty firm believer that the slow BB are pretty much useless in the first 2 years. The allies lost 6 slow BBs at PH which to some might be a hefty price.

This opening was followed up by a quick and successful invasion of Alaska and Canada where the Japanese stopped just after Coal Harbor.

The 3rd phase of Japanese activity saw an ill conceived (IMO) invasion of India. The forces used was far to weak for the task and India was never in any serious danger. Instead the Allies where able to gain some VPs from Japanese ground and air losses. Instead the Allies have now turned the table and have driven the Japanese out of India and is putting a real threat on Burma.

In SOPAC Japanese expansion never went beyond smaller garrisons and invasions. The real Allied strong positions have never been under threat.

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Allied position
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We are in a strong position for the coming offensives on 1942. We have avoided any crippling losses although 3 Fleet CVs have been lost to Japanese subs. [8|] Auto Victory is pretty much off the table with the ratio sitting firm at around 3,2:1. Japanese VPs are mostly tied into base VPs which will be stripped away in the coming years.

Overall I feel confident. This might change in the coming days as Japan now have at least 5 divisions at sea.

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VPs
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Here is a screen of the VP situation. A few things stand out IMO. One is Japanese ship losses which around half was suffered landing at PH. The other is Japanese plane losses which are extremely heavy. This is also in part on the PH assault but also a consequence of the strategic bombing on the WC. I´m doing reasonably well in the air. I think I´m a little bit worse off then I usually am in this game though. I suffered a lot of losses defending PH early on which might explain a bit.

[BillBrown]

Question, if he has TFs with destinations set for Victoria, etc, but has a patrol hex at his invasion base, then you would not see where he was really going?
Is this right?

[Canoerebel]

You can use waypoints to confuse SigInt, if I remember correctly. IE, if a Japanese player sets Noumea as the target of a TF, but has a waypoint at Suva (which happens to be the real invasion destination), then SigInt will report the Noumea destination but won't pick up on Suva. I think that's how it works anyhow.

So there are ways to manipulate invaison target reports to confuse the Allied player.

Do you think Lowpe would give away free intel as to targeted bases this early? If so, why?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"]Invasion Canada?[/font]
_____________________________________________________________________________

I don´t really think there can be much more doubt.

3/2nd Division is loaded on AK Tenshinsan Maru moving to Victoria.
4/48th/B Division is planning for an attack on Prince Rupert.
5/2nd Division is loaded on AK Onoe Maru moving to Victoria.
4/16th Division is planning for an attack on Prince Rupert.
2/9th Division is planning for an attack on Vancouver.

Its makes sense in a way. It explains all the odd things Jeff has been doing for the last few months. But it doesn´t make sense because it doesn´t make any sense whatsoever. There is simply no point in taking Victory and/or Vancouver at this point. It doesn´t give him anything. I can´t stop him from grabbing Victory as I purposely didn´t reinforce it very much. Just added a Canadian BDE and built some forts. So he will gain a few VPs from the troops and industry there.

But in exchange he will trigger the Emergency reinforcements...and Vancouver. Not much there even if he can take it. A few VPs and 3 Catalina factories. He is not going to trigger the reinforcements for this little gain. And where are the remaining 10 divisions?

Interesting turns ahead I think!

How does Tacoma look? I'm guessing Seattle would be a near impossibility for him, but could he be trying to open Puget sound to hit Tacoma. You get a lot of ships there and he could be trying to kill them off for their VPs?

Also, faint? Poodlebrain gives a good point about the xAKs... where are the military and amphib ships?

Those are AKs. They unload at more than double the rate of xAKs.

He only gets a couple of "true amphibs" in the 4 or so LSDs. After that, Japan has AK and AMC type ships that unload at an OK pace. Also keep in mind that Japanese load costs are usually much lower than Allied load costs.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: tiemanj
How does Tacoma look? I'm guessing Seattle would be a near impossibility for him, but could he be trying to open Puget sound to hit Tacoma. You get a lot of ships there and he could be trying to kill them off for their VPs?

Also, faint? Poodlebrain gives a good point about the xAKs... where are the military and amphib ships?

Tacoma itself is not heavily defended although the forts are pretty high. I have the mobile reserve ready though. 2200 AV is sitting in stratmode 1 day out.

I can´t defend everything so I have to rely on the reserves to get there in time.

Regarding SIGINT I´m pretty sure Jeff is playing with me using waypoints and all other tricks in the book. But he can´t trick the system when it comes for prepp. And besides Noumea and targets in China everything has been in Canada and Norther WC.

Then again I don´t have any prepp intel on most of the divisions he brought to NORPAC and PH. What I do have is solid intel that he shipped them to NORPAC and Pearl. So I know they are there and I know that at least 4 of them are now aboard ships. Moving 4 divisions at the same time means he plans to invade somewhere. Since he brought them to Pearl and Adak the only logical target is Canada and/or the WC.

To me it makes no sense though. That is what makes me worried. What am I missing?

[Canoerebel]

Maybe he's targeting the Gulf Coast? How do Mobile, Tampa Bay and Houston look?