The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

The turn is off with D-Day 2.0. I am skeptical of my chances, but I do think there is a chance. It's a mighty interesting moment no matter what - will the bombardments go in properly, will the Helldivers dive, will the landings go well, will enemy combat ships interfere, will enemy subs strike again, is KB lurking, is enemy supply low, can the attack overcome six forts, etc. It's going to fascinating to watch the replay.

Unless, that is, John spoils the turn and lets the cat out of the bag by saying something like, "You'll have to bring more" or "You'll have to try again." He's really had trouble restraining himself of late, so if he spoils what promises to be an immensely entertaining movie, I'm probably going to let him have it.

[Canoerebel]

10/11/43

After two prolonged weeks of excruciating labor, delivery takes place smoothly (well, except for an oddity). This is a pleasant surprise (and John didn't comment in his email, so the movie had no spoilers).

Flying Trapeze: D-Day 2.0 gets off to an auspicious start with back-to-back bombardments that are strong but not nuclear. But then there's no sign of the amphibs, which began the day just one hex from Wake. Holy Cow! I'm thinking. Did I forget to set the TF correctly? During the afternoon phase, the divebombers flew correctly, adding to the damage. Then, finally, the amphibious assault begins at the end of the day (why? what the heck?) with more good bombardments by the embedded BB and CL. The resulting shock attack overwhelms the enemy garrison, which has an adjusted AV of 2. The adjusted Allied AV is 125. The Allies take the base.

Also on the day, Bowfin finishes off CL Sendai with three TTs. Bull Halsey led his combat TF in a charge to the north, but doesn't find his prey (perhaps it was Sendai). Fortunately, his TF isn't targeted by enemy aircraft.

Lots of good empty TFs at Wake will immediately load the combat engineers, tanks and US RCT for transport to Pearl. The Canadians will remain at Wake. TF carrying combat engineers and base force is with the carriers, so will move to Wake tomorrow. The carriers will remain close for at least one more turn to provide cover. But some of the depleted combat TFs will begin the journey to Pearl. With lots of enemy subs in the area, the op isn't over.

This is a pretty important conquest. It flanks the Marshalls and opens the door to places like Marcus, the Bonins and the Marianas. Points far to the SE become even less relevant. So I think John will turn his full attention to the places...while I'm looking elsewhere. But Wake was an enemy blockhouse situated on nearly any route of attack, so taking it is also important from that standpoint.

I have a few things underway intended to keep John focused on CenPac.

Big Tent: The sudden fall of Wake should allow Big Tent to proceed on its original schedule. It will take the carriers a good ten days to return to Pearl, where Enterprise, Hornet and South Dakota will likewise be ready in ten days. The last inbound troop TF is 42 hexes from Pearl - probably six or eight days. So embarkation date might well be in two weeks.

Elsewhere: Recon shows no troops (or next to none) at Koumac, Noumea, Efate, and Tanna, and just a small force at Luganville. I'm going to risk a small TF with a few assault troops to see if John is hoping to ambush me while I'm hoping to strike into what I think is a vacuum. I don't need SoPac in particular right now, so I don't want to risk good assets, but I also don't mind picking up bases on the cheap.

[Canoerebel]

John probably figures that I'm figuring out atoll invasions a bit. With the fall of Wake, he has to look at some of his island holdings and know that he has little chance to stop a determined Allied attack. Marcus, in particular, will worry him.

As his focus turns to Marcus, the Bonins, the Marianas, what does he think about all those troops he crammed into Tabituea, Kwajalein, Eniwetok, Ponape, Kusaie, etc? Does he value them as bulwarks or does he fear that they are now out on a limb?

[Lokasenna]

The reason the amphibs did not unload during the first phases is because they occur before the first movement phase. TFs that begin unloading in that first "TF Loading/Unloading" phase will continue to do so during the second one that follows the movement phase during the night. Because we know there are only 2 unload phases, and it shows 4 times during the replay, I've always assumed that instances 2 and 4 are just there to abstract continuous CD gunfire or some such.

There is then another chance for TFs to initiate unloading prior to the air phase, which I assume is what you saw. Or perhaps even at the end of the turn (I may be off on which of the daytime unloading phases is "real").

[Canoerebel]

Loka, comprehension of plainly written English totally failed me. I know you explained what happened in a logical way that sensible person should comprehend...

...but I have no idea what you just said!

My amphibious TF was just one hex from Wake but didn't unload during the early landings phase. It waited until a latter phase after nearly everything else (except combat) was finished. I can't figure out why. The only possibility could be that one or more ships slowed things down by refueling, but I don't think any were that low on fuel.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Loka, comprehension of plainly written English totally failed me. I know you explained what happened in a logical way that sensible person should comprehend...

...but I have no idea what you just said!

My amphibious TF was just one hex from Wake but didn't unload during the early landings phase. It waited until a latter phase after nearly everything else (except combat) was finished. I can't figure out why. The only possibility could be that one or more ships slowed things down by refueling, but I don't think any were that low on fuel.

I think in the first "unloading report" the AI is figuring out losses and disruption from getting into the boats and unloading in the surf and CD guns firing at transports. This is where preparation plays a big part in the calculations. The report will mention equipment dropped in the water and such. I think ship grounding is also announced in this period)

In the second report in the same phase (night or day) the AI is calculating losses from defensive fire on the beach. This will look like a normal combat report with losses for both sides. (I think this is where embedded fire support ships can cause some enemy casualties).

The process repeats in the afternoon naval session and at the very end of the day phase after the air phases are over.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Loka, comprehension of plainly written English totally failed me. I know you explained what happened in a logical way that sensible person should comprehend...

...but I have no idea what you just said!

My amphibious TF was just one hex from Wake but didn't unload during the early landings phase. It waited until a latter phase after nearly everything else (except combat) was finished. I can't figure out why. The only possibility could be that one or more ships slowed things down by refueling, but I don't think any were that low on fuel.

I think it's because, in order to unload in the first part of the day, you need to already be in the hex. Any movement at all means only one phase of unloading - in the afternoon.

I'm 90% sure.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Loka, comprehension of plainly written English totally failed me. I know you explained what happened in a logical way that sensible person should comprehend...

...but I have no idea what you just said!

My amphibious TF was just one hex from Wake but didn't unload during the early landings phase. It waited until a latter phase after nearly everything else (except combat) was finished. I can't figure out why. The only possibility could be that one or more ships slowed things down by refueling, but I don't think any were that low on fuel.

I think it's because, in order to unload in the first part of the day, you need to already be in the hex. Any movement at all means only one phase of unloading - in the afternoon.

I'm 90% sure.

I'm pretty sure that ships unload during the night phase if they reach destination during the night phase. Actually, thinking on it, I just had it happen from two hexes out and they unloaded at night and during the day. I'll be posting the CR in my AAR in a bit.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: obvert
I'm pretty sure that ships unload during the night phase if they reach destination during the night phase. Actually, thinking on it, I just had it happen from two hexes out and they unloaded at night and during the day. I'll be posting the CR in my AAR in a bit.

Unless something changed recently they will unload during the night even if moving.

[Canoerebel]

10/12/43

Flying Trapeze: A mostly quiet day as Allied TFs at Wake are busy loading units heading home to Pearl and unloading engineers and base force personnel. Thus far TFs that departed haven't encountered any enemy subs. The carriers have refueled and will begin the move to Pearl tomorrow.

There is a Lost Patrol out there. Halsey ignored orders and steamed five hexes closer to Marcus. Judys sortied, many were downed, but did manage one hit on CL Montpelier. I've converted the TF to "Escort" hoping that this will force Halsey's hand. He's been ordered back towards Wake, though he'll continue on towards Pearl.

Big Tent: The "last" of the troops transports inbound from West Coast is 37 hexes out from Pearl. I think things are on schedule to depart around October 25. I expect this armada to be away for the balance of the year and possibly into early '44. It's a big undertaking. A Big Tent undertaking.

Operation Carnival: I hope to have one more small surprise for John in a few days. I'll continue to monitor IJA garrison levels in and close to the islands to see if John is showing any signs of the "yips" as a result of Wake's fall, or is he firmly committed to defending this far out?

Operation Family Reunion: My family and I are heading to South Carolina today to attend a family reunion. I'll be away until next Saturday, though I will borrow my children's laptops from time to time to check in on the forums. I'm glad pre-vacation didn't end with the loss of Wasp and Casablanca. The fall of Wake Island softened the sting considerably.

Thanks for reading and giving tips. You can tell I employed quite a few recently. Two observations:

1. Amphibious TFs definitely will unload early even if moving several hexes. I have no idea what delayed the one moving the one hex to Wake. That was very odd.

2. The RCT in reserve at Wake did not participate in the attack. (Thanks, Hans!) That's a handy thing to know.

[crsutton]

Pity about the loss of your two carriers to subs but "war is heck" and even the Japanese deserve a good day now and then. You probably should be sinking more of his subs but perhaps John is more crafty about their use than I have experienced. Years ago, I think it was The Elf who recommended setting one bomber air group on 90% ASW and set the range to zero. This results in multiple air attacks in your carrier's hex and a super high DL which limits the subs ability to attack. It also causes both your escorts and neighboring ASW TFs to react and attack. I have used it many times to good effect. The downside is that you are taking a strike group out of action but at this stage I don't think you will see enemy carriers. Any squadron with good to average ASW skills will work.

[SuluSea]

Good job with Wake. I was believing it would give you a little bit more trouble. I'm thinking with the additional
bonuses the Japanese player gets with this mod your experiences attacking atolls will serve you well going forward
with both this game and futures. My comments have been limited because I've been looking at the other side but
again, been enjoying your progress and writing!

ORIGINAL: crsutton


Years ago, I think it was The Elf who recommended setting one bomber air group on 90% ASW
and set the range to zero. This results in multiple air attacks in your carrier's hex and a super high DL which
limits the subs ability to attack. It also causes both your escorts and neighboring ASW TFs to react and attack.
I have used it many times to good effect. The downside is that you are taking a strike group out of action but
at this stage I don't think you will see enemy carriers. Any squadron with good to average ASW skills will work.

This definitely works...

I've used this technique on more than one occasion when the Japan player has an area saturated
I used all bombers when I was certain KB wasn't around. Do that occasionally and he'll more than likely thin the
herd.

I'm dying to see big tent....[:)]

Have a great vacation!

[Crackaces]

In the early years the US Torps are borked so I found pilots with the better ASW skills to man the torpedo bombers
but at range of 2 (meaning 1 when the ASW modifiers were applied) .. the zero range idea makes sense ..especially how the turn sequence works ..

ORIGINAL: SuluSea

Good job with Wake. I was believing it would give you a little bit more trouble. I'm thinking with the additional
bonuses the Japanese player gets with this mod your experiences attacking atolls will serve you well going forward
with both this game and futures. My comments have been limited because I've been looking at the other side but
again, been enjoying your progress and writing!

ORIGINAL: crsutton


Years ago, I think it was The Elf who recommended setting one bomber air group on 90% ASW
and set the range to zero. This results in multiple air attacks in your carrier's hex and a super high DL which
limits the subs ability to attack. It also causes both your escorts and neighboring ASW TFs to react and attack.
I have used it many times to good effect. The downside is that you are taking a strike group out of action but
at this stage I don't think you will see enemy carriers. Any squadron with good to average ASW skills will work.

This definitely works...

I've used this technique on more than one occasion when the Japan player has an area saturated
I used all bombers when I was certain KB wasn't around. Do that occasionally and he'll more than likely thin the
herd.

I'm dying to see big tent....[:)]

Have a great vacation!

Years ago, I think it was The Elf who recommended setting one bomber air group on 90% ASW and set the range to zero. This results in multiple air attacks in your carrier's hex and a super high DL which limits the subs ability to attack. It also causes both your escorts and neighboring ASW TFs to react and attack. I have used it many times to good effect. The downside is that you are taking a strike group out

[Cap Mandrake]

I missed a few pages. I'm guessing only one person knows what "Big Tent" is. [:)]

The easiest early approach to the HI for the Allies is via the Kuriles and Sakhalin in my opinion. You can get to within 12 hexes before being spotted (usually). With the right materiel you can smash Paramashiro AF on day 1 of your attack and there are lots of places to land that are usually not well garrisoned.

[BillBrown]

I think Big Tent is Raboul. But I have been wrong every time so far.

[Flicker]

Thanks for the big picture map. OK, so your next target may not be Luzon. However Guam and the Marianas seem to fit the timeline, with a little attention also being paid to Marcus Island. Taking the Marianas leaves much of the Empire's holdings from New Guinea east hanging out.

[JeffroK]

Iwo Jima, I've seen CR at work before!

[JohnDillworth]

Iwo Jima, I've seen CR at work before!

makes sense. The advantage now can be exploited by staying away from interlocking airfields. I like Truk. not as close or as daring as Iwo, but more useful. Truk, with Allied engineers and support ships is a prize and it's capture makes the entire SW pacific a large POW camp

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Iwo Jima, I've seen CR at work before!

makes sense. The advantage now can be exploited by staying away from interlocking airfields. I like Truk. not as close or as daring as Iwo, but more useful. Truk, with Allied engineers and support ships is a prize and it's capture makes the entire SW pacific a large POW camp

Truk is such a hard nut to crack though... The high fort levels make LBA attacks on the infantry ineffective.

[BillBrown]

I like Raboul because he can spread out in all directions and clear up his sea lanes.