Great Tides that Ebb and Flow: Apbarog (A) vs Walker (J) DBB-B Scen 28

[Walker84]

Timor Sea map position - 4 May 1943

[jwolf]

I hope you can beat off that infection for good. Thanks for the update as the game looks very interesting during this stage.

[Walker84]

Thanks jwolf, I'm trying something a bit more aggressive this time and the turn has been sent. Hope it pays off - or at least leads to a lively combat report next time [:)]

[Walker84]

5 May 1943


Timor Sea

Well, in short, today was an anticlimax. With Allied transports along with carriers and heavy support spotted heading north into the Timor Sea, the KB and supporting TFs took up an aggressive stance south of Ambon. Of the various possibilities considered, Apbarog could be sending reinforcements to Babar, or perhaps trying to grab more real estate at Lautern or Saumlaki. Arriving at its plotted position during the night would place KB 6 hexes equidistant of all three bases so, if the Allies came forward, a carrier battle would be likely to happen. Furthermore, KB would also supported by a network of torpedo-packing bases at Ambon and Boela.

In the event, the Allies simply withdrew leaving the shattered hulks of the APcs at Babar. Daytime search shows the carriers almost certainly hugging the coast near Gove with some other units likely in port at Darwin. So the KB deterrent has worked today. But for how long?


PNG

Less promising news from New Guinea reaches High Command : the fall of Lae is now imminent...

Ground combat at Lae (99,126)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 25566 troops, 433 guns, 708 vehicles, Assault Value = 807

Defending force 9382 troops, 116 guns, 98 vehicles, Assault Value = 150

Allied adjusted assault: 753

Japanese adjusted defense: 295

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1011 casualties reported
Squads: 45 destroyed, 51 disabled
Non Combat: 13 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 36 (15 destroyed, 21 disabled)
Vehicles lost 7 (6 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Units destroyed 2

Allied ground losses:
229 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 15 (2 destroyed, 13 disabled)
Vehicles lost 38 (2 destroyed, 36 disabled)

[Crackaces]

Just a little reminder . you are going to lost territory (in response to Lae comment) the key is the Allies have to catch up in VP's and then be 2:1 ..

So in the equation blood, space, and time .. I might offer that you want to balance this equation so you have not reached 2:1 March 1946 ..

Make the Allies pay a price for the most expensive terrain .. but maybe not invest in targets that do not move the VP's ...

[Walker84]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

Just a little reminder . you are going to lost territory (in response to Lae comment) the key is the Allies have to catch up in VP's and then be 2:1 ..

So in the equation blood, space, and time .. I might offer that you want to balance this equation so you have not reached 2:1 March 1946 ..

Make the Allies pay a price for the most expensive terrain .. but maybe not invest in targets that do not move the VP's ...

Thanks Crackaces, I probably don't pay enough attention in general to VP criteria so a timely reminder.
Lae was originally part of my much-vaunted "New Guinea defensive box" (along with Pt Moresby and Buna) but Apbarog was able to remove each bastion pretty forensically and I will need to think about my defensive strategy in the region even more carefully in the next game I play [:D]



6 May 1943


Timor Sea

KB moves closer to Babar, intercepting and shooting down a dozen or so OS2U-3 Kingfishers set to naval attack from that base.

Zeroes sweep Babar and find there is no CAP. A scheduled bombing raid fails to follow up and hit the base.



Lae...

..is attacked again. Forts dropped to zero - will fall tomorrow, or the next day.


Rare sub torpedo hit on a DD in ASW TF

South of Hiroshima on the way me home for an upgrade: DD Tsuta, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage and later sinks.

[Walker84]

The game slowed down for a week or so while I went to Scotland for some hill-walking and family events. I have also neglected the AAR so will provide a quick resume today to bring the war up to date (we are currently on 11 May 43).


DEI / Timor Sea

Most days you could virtually walk across the Timor Sea on the backs of Allied subs without getting your feet wet and I spend a lot of time dodging them with my naval patrols. My ASW rarely hits anything. Otherwise, its mostly been about airbase suppression as I keep hitting Babar and Timoeka while Apbarog keeps bombing Taberfane to keep it closed.

Due to the build-up around Darwin and Gove I had suspected a further Allied attack was coming soon in this theatre and sure enough a new armada materialised south of Saumlaki on May 11. Saumlaki is not a strategic hold for me and I decide not to risk KB until I know the direction of the attack and where the Allied carriers will be positioned. Too many subs in the way for one thing.

[Walker84]

Continuing the round-up...

Australia

The Allies continue to mop up my largely-abandoned bases in the north. A couple of armoured rgts managed to escape to the ports due west but its touch and go whether they will be evacuated. One AMC took a sub torp while standing by off Broome.


New Guinea

Lae has fallen and several sizeable Japanese units are still bottled up in the interior with no real escape unless they can fight their way out with limited supply.


Burma

No Allied movement here whatsoever and I have been redeploying what forces I can spare to shore up the long coastlines of Malaya and DEI while retaining my fortified position intact.


Movement of oil and resources

Huge convoys of tankers and merchantmen still work flat out to bring oil and resources back to the Home Islands. The odd US sub has started appearing around Hokkaido but there has been next to no disruption and sinking of merchant vessels on my main supply routes. We can expect this to change of course.


Aleutians

Subs report more ships unloading around Attu and adjacent islands. It may take a while for any major threat to develop from this angle as Apbarog seems heavily committed to the DEI offensive right now.


Solomons / Marshalls

Apbarog has been mounting nuisance raids on bases like Tarawa but there has been no sign of more significant encroachments - yet.

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: Walker84

Subs report more ships unloading around Attu and adjacent islands. It may take a while for any major threat to develop from this angle as Apbarog seems heavily committed to the DEI offensive right now.

This makes sense to me since although Apbarog has been successful with his offensives in NG, Darwin, etc, he has taken heavy ship losses in support of those operations. I would think he doesn't and won't have enough assets for a second heavy offensive anywhere until, say, 1944 (??) when he gets a tremendous amount of reinforcements.

[Walker84]

Thanks for the thoughts jwolf, I'm not sure in aggregate that Apbarog has suffered many heavy ship losses, although I have managed to damage several Allied carriers and sink several weak cruisers in recent operations.

I'm basing my observations on the overall flow of activity in recent months; Apbarog has devoted a lot of capital in the areas mentioned, but I guess he could still switch forces to other theatres to keep me off balance if he so chooses. Basically, for now, its a case of following where the Allied carrier force goes next.

[Walker84]

11 - 13 May 1943


DEI Round-up

As expected, the Allies invaded Saumlaki which fell pretty easily. The base was defended by a single Naval Guard and Apbarog inserted the right amount of troops to take it on the second day. After being pounded by several naval bombardments and air attacks and a preceding ground attack, Saumlaki fell on 13 May.
The Allies suffered possible one naval loss, DD Cony, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage. Japan also lost two subs to ASW attacks.
One other positive was when a unit of Oscars flying LRCAP shot down 1/2 dozen B-25s over the base.

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 7061 troops, 27 guns, 69 vehicles, Assault Value = 170

Defending force 1424 troops, 12 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 21

Allied adjusted assault: 57

Japanese adjusted defense: 7

Allied assault odds: 8 to 1 (fort level 1)

Allied forces CAPTURE Saumlaki !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
237 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 23 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 5 (4 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
66 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Assaulting units:
77th LRP Brigade
7th Air Advn Base Force
17th Base Maint Engineer Battalion
6th USN Naval Construction Regiment

Defending units:
83rd Naval Guard Unit

A point of interest was that the Allied shipping managed to unload in a day so I would have struggled to intervene effectively, even had I elected to send the KB south through shark-infested waters. Any moves towards Ambon, Babar, Koepang etc will be a different matter however.

Elsewhere in the air, Apbarog widened his 4e base attacks to include Lautern and Boela as well as Taberfane.


Derby, Broome - Australia

A combination of air transports and naval Fast transport TFs managed to extract elements of 4th Tank rgt and 16th Recon rgt from both bases. On the 13th an Allied TF turned up at Broome to find that the birds had already flown. A small but satisfying operation. Just a shame that the AMC hit earlier by a torpedo is unlikely to make it home.

[Walker84]

14-15 May 1943

DEI

Operations are still focused around the Timor Sea. On 14 May P-38s sweep Dili in force, getting the better of the defending fighters which were set to 15k CAP. Next day we are flying at 20k but there is no follow-up attack.

Meanwhile, the Allied carriers move north towards Taberfane. Initial intel of the TF composition indicates that this is more likely to be a raid than an invasion so I delay committing KB until I can see what is going on. By the 15th, the Allied TFs are positioned just east of Dobo and only a couple of APDs are spotted so I think this might be a move to reinforce Timoeka rather than invade Dobo and Taberfane, both of which have divisional-sized elements defending them.

A small supply convoy is surprised and sunk at Dobo. Not a big deal until you clock the fighter escorts...

Morning Air attack on TF, near Dobo at 83,116

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 36
SBD-3 Dauntless x 36

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
PB Kaisho Maru, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
xAKL Buyo Maru, Bomb hits 7, and is sunk

With the arrival of Hellcats in force we will need to take extra care in any carrier encounters from now on, especially as we are not at full strength, with several carriers still upgrading in the yard. Nevertheless, I decide to move KB a little closer to the war zone tomorrow, in case there are any opportunities to attack.

[Walker84]

16 - 31 May, 1943

Have fallen behind with this AAR due to a combination of travelling and never quite getting round to writing it up after sending the turn. Here's a summary of the events of the last 1/2 month.

Aleutians

Sent a surprise CA TF to stir the pot but all they bagged was a measly AM at Attu.


New Guinea

Apbarog pushed north as far as Nadzab which he captured from the remnants of the Lae garrison. I'm building a defence line at Madang but there is little movement at the moment - focus seems to be on Timor (see below).

The remnants of the Buna garrison are still defending well in the jungle. A US marine division attacks every once in a while but comes off worse despite the supply situation being dire for the Japanese.


Solomons and Marshalls

Apbarog is mounting the odd sweep to keep me honest here but little sign of activity otherwise.


Burma

Ditto.


Timor Sea

This is where most of the action has been found over the last fortnight as Apbarog continues to commit an impressive amount of force to take bases. I'll include a map of the current situation but wanted to describe how Japan has lost the operational initiative in this area for the time being.

1. Japanese submarines are proving ineffective against superior Allied ASW in these shallow waters: several have been sunk while attempting to interdict Allied landings or intercept the carriers; many others have been heavily damaged and forced to limp home for repairs (many receiving 50 float damage in a single ASW attack).

2. Japanese airpower is unable to keep major airbases open under concentrated air attacks. Example would be Koepang, with 90+ fighters on CAP. P-38 sweeps, followed by large scale heavy 4e bombing raids on successive days were enough to shut the field down. A CA bombardment TF evading the defensive minefield finished the job.

3. The KB is unable to intervene effectively in the DEI presently. Allied subs are managing to penetrate the KB's weaker ASW screen more effectively. SS Drum launched 6 torpedoes at CV Kaga on 21 May but missed fortunately; Hiyo took a torp on 25 May and has had to retire for repair. KB is therefore down 4 carriers and I am loathe to expose it to additional risk even in defence of Timor.

So, for the time being we are going to have to trade bases to buy time and hope to counterattack on the run if Apbarog over-extends himself. Pretty soon, Soerabaja and Balikpapan will be in US bomber range so I have withdrawn all non-essential naval units. The oil will likely be impeded however.


Production

All indicators still looking good. A tanker was hit recently by a sub torpedo near Borneo but made it to port: so at least while most Allied subs are in the Timor Sea trying to sink the KB they are not harrying my convoys.

[Walker84]

1 - 4 June, 1943

The game restarts after a three week hiatus due to a family trip to Japan. I'll write about Japan another time - suffice to say that it was one of the most fascinating and rewarding holidays we have ever been on.


New Guinea - Salamaua raid

This action was a pleasant surprise as I totally forgot ordering the TF three weeks ago to attack shipping that was spotted north of Buna.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Salamaua at 98,127, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Atago
CL Agano
DD Onami
DD Nagatsuki
DD Sawakaze

Allied Ships
KV Wetaskiwin, Shell hits 19, and is sunk
xAKL Marudu, Shell hits 14, and is sunk
xAKL Kaiping, Shell hits 26, and is sunk
xAKL Prominent, Shell hits 17, and is sunk
xAKL De Klerk, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
xAKL De Haan, Shell hits 20, and is sunk
xAKL Patras, Shell hits 14, and is sunk

On the way back the cruisers sink 5 PT boats close to Lae.

A few days later however, I lose about 20 planes over Lae when a squadron of Lillies escorted by Ki-45 fighters decides to attack more shipping... and runs into a lot of CAP. It was not a coordinated attack as I moved the Lillies in range the previous turn but forgot to adjust their mission type and radius.


DEI

The Allied focus remains on Timor at the moment. Allied forces which reached Dili on 3 June launch a direct attack on the 4th preceded by a cruiser bombardment. Japanese forces hold up pretty well in the jungle terrain but are likely to be ground down pretty soon by more bombing and naval bombardments.

Ground combat at Dili (71,115)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 12668 troops, 217 guns, 179 vehicles, Assault Value = 403

Defending force 14208 troops, 110 guns, 26 vehicles, Assault Value = 420

Allied adjusted assault: 564

Japanese adjusted defense: 969

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
245 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 19 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
801 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 108 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 25 (1 destroyed, 24 disabled)
Vehicles lost 35 (2 destroyed, 33 disabled)

Assaulting units:
32nd Infantry Division
640th Tank Destroyer Battalion
XIV US Corps
1st RAA Jungle Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
11th Garrison Unit
14th Garrison Unit
24th Infantry Regiment
9th RF Gun Battalion
56th Construction Battalion
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
86th JAAF AF Bn

Koepang remains a pretty strong bulwark at the moment and its unlikely that it can be taken by land after Dili falls. Shame I can't keep the airfield open though.


Carrier update

I'm starting to get back up to operational strength in the carrier divisions. Zuikaku and Soryu have just finished repairs and are steaming to a prearranged rendezvous with the rest of the fleet.

The Allied carriers disappeared south of Horn Island a week or two ago but I'm pretty sure they will be back soon to support further offensive operations in the vicinity of Timor. That is unless Apbarog has planned something even more sneaky!

[Walker84]

5 - 9 June 1943

It's been a quiet few days in game terms. Apbarog performed a further bombardment attack at Dili on 5 June but the Allies came off worse and he hasn't attempted any more ground attacks for the last few days but has started employing 4e bombers to start disrupting my troops.


On the morning of 9 June my spotter planes identify several high-powered Allied TFs in the vicinity of Darwin (which itself is reported to contain 200+ disbanded ships in port). It's not clear how many carriers are present in the active TFs, but multiple AVs and BBs are reported which usually means CVs are close by. I guess the next Allied DEI op is gathering steam, but what will the target be this time?

Just as a footnote, I now have some Georges in the pool but playing with PDU off means I can only allocate them to a restricted squadron in Japan for now. I've been reduced to mousing over them from time to time to admire them in the training squadron they have been allocated to. [:D]

[Walker84]

Here's a quick map of the situation in the Timor Sea...

[Walker84]

June 10 - 11 1943

Timor / DEI

Apbarog has brought up a second division at Dili and wastes no time in attacking again. A good enough result for the Allies, dropping the forts to 2. Bombing and naval bombardments of the base continue.

Ground combat at Dili (71,115)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 25084 troops, 447 guns, 326 vehicles, Assault Value = 697

Defending force 13903 troops, 110 guns, 26 vehicles, Assault Value = 403

Allied adjusted assault: 1171

Japanese adjusted defense: 811

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
749 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 60 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 16 (1 destroyed, 15 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
641 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 37 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 27 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 11 (2 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 64 (10 destroyed, 54 disabled)

Assaulting units:
640th Tank Destroyer Battalion
32nd Infantry Division
18th British Division
XIV US Corps
1st RAA Jungle Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
11th Garrison Unit
14th Garrison Unit
24th Infantry Regiment
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
9th RF Gun Battalion
56th Construction Battalion
86th JAAF AF Bn

Allied TFs continue milling around the Timor Sea but there's no sign of any directional activity yet.

Taberfane and Dobo take massive 4e raids, the airfields are purely rubble but the main problem I face here is the dwindling supply situation. I have been steadily extricating ground troops by air but there is still a sizeable contingent dug in if Apbarog decides to attack.

However I actually expect the Allies to strike further north - towards Ambon and Boela, or west towards the island chain linking closer with Java. I'm trying to keep a decent-sized reaction force in place for when the hammer finally comes.


War at sea

Several tanker TFs have been intercepted by subs lately but the escorts seem to have done okay for now, for example:

ASW attack near Groot Natoena at 60,80

Japanese Ships
SC Ch 2
TK Teiyo Maru
TK Omurosan Maru
TK Huzisan Maru
SC Ch 3

Allied Ships
SS Pike, hits 5, heavy damage

SS Pike is sighted by escort
Pike diving deep ....
SC Ch 3 attacking submerged sub ....
SC Ch 3 fails to find sub, continues to search...
SC Ch 3 fails to find sub, continues to search...
SC Ch 3 fails to find sub, continues to search...
SC Ch 3 attacking submerged sub ....
Escort abandons search for sub

[jwolf]

Thanks for resuming your side of this great game and AAR! I really enjoy reading the viewpoint from both sides.

[Walker84]

Thanks jwolf,

My opponent's AAR probably reads a little more upbeat than mine these days but I'm still enjoying all the challenges at this stage in the war. [:D]

[Walker84]

June 12 - 13

Air battle over Hansa Bay

For several days, I have had a single xAK escorted by a solitary PB unloading supplies at Hansa Bay, 100% detection level. The temptation must have proved too much for Apbarog because on 12 June he sent in a massive multiple strike comprising Corsairs, Thunderbolts, P40Ks, B-17s and SBDs.

I had a pretty strong CAP operation protecting the base, comprising a big Tojo wing, plus Oscar IIb and Zero squadrons... and they acquitted themselves well, shooting down a reported 38 Allied planes for 30 lost. The P-47s and F4Us did quite well but lost several of their own number, while the P-40s were crucified. A couple of B-17s and SBDs were also shot down. Both ships were sunk as my CAP grew depleted after multiple waves flew in.


Dili falls

A final DA takes the base after multiple naval bombardments and bombing runs have softened up the defenders. Survivors retreat towards Koepang.



Darwin - trouble brewing


Many TFs are assembling at Darwin. No sign of any movement away from the base but it can only mean more attacks are in the offing.