The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There are problems with nearly any target: Hokkaido is now well defended, Shokaku and Kyushu are within the umbrella of Home Island airfields, Okinawa is within the main perimeter, the various Philippines groups have major interlocking arifields and will have the Marianas to their back unless I first attend to those, the Marianas are tough nuts and I don't have a good port to replenish from (as I did in the campaign vs. Wake, which limits bombardments, so that's a big concern), and so it goes as I continue to evaluate potential targets. Some of those are still high-priority targets under consideration, but there are others out there also, ranging as far away as Timor and Java.

The thing is they are all by appearances deadly looking but the reality is that the Japanese player does not have the luxury of building every potential target to the max. There are just too many shortages for every point to be well defended. Japan can roll out aircraft like crazy but the amount of air support, service units and construction units is limited-not to mention the supply costs for developing major strong points. The key for the Allies in the later part of the war is to identify what points the Japanese player has neglected and then go for them.

The LST changes everything because the Allied player can grab any old zero port base that has good airfield potential and build them up. Something the Japanese player can not do. I love Siboret Island (and surrounding bases) as a target. Hard for Japan to defend or reinforce and it provides a level 9 airfield right in the gut of Japanese oil production. You won't even need B29s for most targets there, and you don't even need to invade Sumatra or Java just bomb out the oil and move on.

[Canoerebel]

10/13/43

Flying Trapeze: John surprises by sending KB (or part thereof) on a raid midway between Midway and Wake Island. No action occurs even though his carriers are just eight hexes from one BB TF.

This was a good idea on John's part, but I had feared it and thus took precautions. My shuttling of bombardment TFs to and from Midway to replenish was a tempting target. I halted that before D-Day 2.0, partly out of fear that John had had enough time to orchestrate a countermeasure. I also had beefed up Midway's CAP and just inserted CAP at Wake.

I think John will retire KB now that it's been spotted, but I can't be sure. Death Star will move a few hexes east and many exposed TFs will seek refuge under it's wings. Some TFs will remain at Wake under augmented CAP.

I'm glad John didn't go after the CA Baltimore "Lone Patrol" TF that got hung up way out near Marcus under Bull Halsey's reckless command. Last turn, I changed it to Escort duty. Halsey obeyed and the TF is almost back to Wake.

Big Tent: The "furthest away" troop TF is now 32 hexes from Pearl. So embarkation day should be in about two weeks.

[1275psi]

Johns back then?

buggar, empty in tray and got the day off.

[Canoerebel]

10/14/43

Flying Trapeze: KB pulls back to the NW while Death Star and all her chicks moves slowly east. Lots of enemy subs in the vicinity, but no major action today. Tomorrow, Death Star will move more quickly. If things go well, the day after she'll retire to Pearl. She's 38 hexes away today, so figure about a week.

All troops to be extracted from Wake have loaded and/or left the island now. Remaining behind are the Canadian brigade, a large Aussie base force, and an American engineer regiment. A long-range recon squadron has staged forward and will recon Marcus tomorrow. This is "push polling," meant to lead John to certain conclusions.

Big Tent: SigInt and other activity suggests John is focusing on the wrong places. In particular, he's continuing to reinforce in the Marshalls and vicinity. He's also attending to some of his rear areas, but no sign that he's locked in on the target.

Elsewhere: Tomorrow or the day after, a fast transport TF will arrive at a dot hex on John's forward main line of defense. This is more push polling. Down in SoPac, some amphibious TFs are sniffing around New Caledonia. I think John withdrew most or all of the garrison troops, but that doesn't mean he didn't leave behind a base force sufficient to handle aircraft that could ambush any Allied amphbious TF. So I'm not risking much out here.

[poodlebrain]

I like the idea of poking him all along his front lines. No use letting those troops get comfortable, or John complacent with his defenses. Deception and misdirection are your friends now since you have the initiative. Anything you can do to make sure he does not have the right stuff in the right location at the right time is beneficial.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: crsutton
...The key for the Allies in the later part of the war is to identify what points the Japanese player has neglected and then go for them....

Right on!

[Canoerebel]

10/15/43

Flying Trapeze: DD Bush runs afoul of sub-laid mines at Wake, hits one, and promptly sinks. This is unfortunate because two AM are on patrol there but don't seem to be "seeing" the mines. Other than that, egress from Wake continues without serious incident. A transport TF with an embedded SC tangled with and sank and IJN sub. The carriers are 31 hexes NW of Pearl. No sign of KB today.

Big Tent: The TF consisting of transports damaged by shore guns during the Wake landings reached Pearl. There were roughly six, all with light damage. All will be repaired within ten days and will take part in Big Tent. The last big transport TF is 20 hexes out. Lots of DEs have arrived, so ASW will be beefed up for this operation.

Operation Bearded Lady: I dub the fast transport assault on Rongelap (dot hex near Roi-Namur) accordingly, because it turned ugly today. Four APDs and an AMC were sunk by Judys from Roi. LRCAP from Wotje did a decent job, downing 40 Georges and Helens and a handful of Judys. This was an ugly affair - I didn't plan this well (shouldn't have mixed slower AMCs with the APDs) and John was ready. The remaining APDs are in position and will continue to the island tonight. They ground force will be very weak, but it's still worth the additional attention it should draw from John. He'll counter invade, and perhaps all this will give him reason to keep some focus in the Marshalls. Any attention he keeps there will be a benefit. (Any future operations in the Marshalls will carry this name.)

Operation Lion Tamer: All operations in SoPac will carry this name, including the invasion of La Foa, which takes place tomorrow. I only have a few AV aboard a single xAP, but I'm not expecting opposition. The Allies will continue to attach single xAP TFs to invade other targets that appear to be ungarrisoned.

[BillBrown]

We are still waiting for the BIG announcement. [8D]

[Canoerebel]

10/16/43

Naval Battle of Wake Island: Hiyo added to the confirmed sunk list today, bringing the total to eight CVE, two CVL, and three CV (including Zuikaku and Kaga). I am nearly positive one more CVL was sunk, and there's a small chance an additional fleet carrier was sunk.

Carrier Balance: Since the big battle, I've lost CV Wasp and CVE Casablance, with CVE Sangamon heavily damaged and unavailable for Operation Big Tent. But I've also been reinforced by CV Bunker Hill, a CVL and a CVE. So Death Star should be larger than it was during the great naval battle (barring any attrition in the meantime). KB is still a force to be reckoned with, but I don't think it can take on Death Star one-on-one.

Flying Trapeze: An IJN sub scores one hit on an AO, doing moderate damage. Lots of enemy subs between Wake and the Hawaian chain. John did a good job of vectoring them in, and they've done agood job of attriting Allied shipping. Other than that, a quiet day. Death Star is now 25 hexes from Pearl. All other combat TFs (except Baltimore) are closer than that.

Big Tent: The last TF bringing ground troops to Pearl is now 14 hexes away. There are some housekeeping details - getting a zillion troops and supply loaded, replenising and cosmetic repairs to combat ships that have been at sea for two months, and awaiting a few remaining ships (for instance, two DE and a PF arrived at Mare Island today - with IJN subs so active, I'm glad to have these available). But I am optimistic that Big Tent will depart Pearl in less than two weeks. SigInt continues to look good.

Bearded Lady: My fast transport TF recalculated its course due to threat of enemy air, so won't go in until tonight.

Lion Tamer: Landings at La Foa on New Caledonia go without a hitch. The Allies should have this base tomorrow, allowing for PBYs to stage forward. Recon shows that Luganville, Efata, Tamma and Koumac are vacant and Noumea basically so. I think John probably withdrew all troops forward of Lunga, though I haven't check Ndeni yet.

Comparison of Positions: One viable vector of attack in the spring was to commence in the New Caledonia region. Had that vector been selected, heavy fighting would have taken place there or in the Luganville area. The Allies might've done just as well or better. But there's no question that the surprise move on the Marshalls unhinged the entire Japanese forward defenses. John can take satisfaction from successfully vacating his forward bases since they are now irrelevant. I can take satisfaction in working the map in such a way that these islands became irrelevant and can now be taken cheaply. But these rear areas are no longer signficiant to the outcome of the war. The question is whether the Allies will be able to move forward in strength or whether John has configured (or is configuring) his defenses effectively. We'll know when Big Tent fully develops in November.

[Canoerebel]

10/17/43

John is reasserting himself offensively and it paid off handsomely today. I'll detail the lumps, but the underlying theme is whether he's focusing forward (he may not be - he may be fighting forward while attending expeditiously to his second line of defenses).

Flying Trapeze: BB Haruna leads a combat TF to Wake, sinking two DD and damaging another. I'm withdrawing the remaining TF (minesweepers) and will leave Wake to stand on its own for a few weeks. Events to come should relieve any pressure John chooses to apply here. IJN subs east of Wake sank the AO damaged yesterday and then sank another. That hurts with fuel supply and is the most significant loss of the day.

Big Tent: Ships continue to converge at Pearl, where there are 525 ships. That last transport TF (with part of 1st Cav. Div.) is seven hexes out. The carriers are 17 hexes out. None of the fleet carriers has more than 1 SYS damage. Copwens, with 4 SYS and 3 FLT (none major) will need the most time in port - probably just a few days. So Big Tent transports will begin loading in earnest as soon as the rest of 1st Cav. arrives (probably two days). As usual with major Allied operations in late '43, this one will be massive - roughly 750 ships. The hard part is loading efficiently - I'm not a spreadsheet guy. I probably don't have enough lift capacity - there are roughly six major targets and 10 minor targets. I'm also weighing whether to take slow BBs, which require refueling often. But this show may get on the road in 10 days or less. The fleet should be in theater for two months, providing cover while the supply unloads and ports and airfields are built.

Bearded Lady: My fast transport TF did what they aren't supposed to do but do all to often: arrived at the invasion beach and stayed there throughout the turn, thus drawing massed enemy air attacks. The landing at Rongalap is unopposed (the base should fall tomorrow). I lose two APD and a DD. John loses 31 aircraft to CAP. There is a barge TF bearing down on Allied-held Ailinglaplap, so John may be contemplating some counterinvasions. He'll have a hard time against any of these bases, but more importantly I'd like to see John remain offensive-minded.

Lion Tamer: La Foa falls to the Allies. It looks like Luganville has 2k troops - probably a base force. But it's only a level one airfield (can divebombers fly from those, or is it limited to CAP and recon?).

[BBfanboy]

No offensive operations from a level 1 AF. Search and Recon only and local CAP.

[Canoerebel]

10/18/43

Flying Trapeze: Haruna (no escorts bigger than a DD) returns to Wake to bombard, doing modest damage. Some ASW TFs have contact with subs while covering the retirement to Pearl, but no ships damaged today.

Big Tent: Transport TF carrying balance of 1st Cav. Div. arrives at Pearl today. Death Star is nine hexes out. Loading commences tomorrow. The invasion armada should depart within the week.

The invasion will include five major targets - each with a division - and 12 lesser targets - each with more modest assault forces. Many of these targets will be unoccupied or lightly occupied, but some will surprise me with stronger garrisons. So I doubt I'll take all of them. The heart of the invasion will be two key bases and many of the lesser ones (which are dot hexes or otherwise show no sign of enemy troops or base-building activity).

Four other divisions will remain at Pearl, prepping for Eniwetok, Marcus, Truk and Peleliu. John is working now to reinforce Marcus (it's under reconnaissance from Wake). It's somewhat tempting to take it on now, but I won't. I don't need it for Big Tent, and it's more important to get the show on the road.

Bearded Lady: The Allies take dot-hex Rongalap (three hexes north of Roi-Namur) with a small force. I think John may counter invade tomorrow.

Lion Tamer: Landings at Efate, which I believe to be ungarrisoned, tomorrow.

[HansBolter]

Have we learned yet what the target of Big Tent is?

17 targets seems like too many for the Marianas.

Sounds about right for the Solomons though.

Sounds even more right for the PI....but that's a pretty big leap beyond current holdings.

[Canoerebel]

Big Tent will unfold (reveal itself) as the operation moves along.

Loading began this turn for about five of the "minor" targets, using xAP and xAK (and a few APD) while saving the APA, AKA and the like for the major targets (one "lesser but important" target will also get them).

[jwolf]

Hans: exactly what I was thinking, with that number of targets. I'll put my money on the Solomons. Canoerebel could make a fortune as a bookie in his AAR! [:D]

[Canoerebel]

It was challenging to select the targets for Big Tent. On the one hand, the Allies now have clear carrier superiority and could pretty much go anywhere in strength. Now isn't the time to be conservative and aim for something that would contribute little towards ultimate victory. Thus, for instance, a massive amphibious assault on Tabituea/Ocean/Nauru, Luganville/Ndeni, Port Moresby/Milne Bay, or Exmouth/Port Headland would probably be a waste of resources, opportunity and time.

On the other hand it is possible to go too far while establsihing bases that would then have trouble sustaining themselves once Death Star leaves, as the bases would be too close to John's ports and big airfields. I think Okinawa and Formose would be good examples.

In between there are many good options, some leaning towards "pretty far out there" and some leaning towards "am I being bold enough, decisive enough." The selection was made more than a month ago. Since then I've wavered both ways - "it's not bold enough" to "it's too bold!" But the plan has been made and I'm going to stick with it unless something way, way unexepcted happens (in that event, I'd turn my focus on Marcus, Eniwetok and Roi-Namur, but that's not going to happen).

[DW]

In between there are many good options, some leaning towards "pretty far out there" and some leaning towards "am I being bold enough, decisive enough." The selection was made more than a month ago. Since then I've wavered both ways - "it's not bold enough" to "it's too bold!" But the plan has been made and I'm going to stick with it unless something way, way unexepcted happens (in that event, I'd turn my focus on Marcus, Eniwetok and Roi-Namur, but that's not going to happen).

Herodotus once wrote of the Persians that when deciding a plan for war, they would discuss it once when drunk to make sure it wasn't too timid, and once while sober to make sure it wasn't too bold.

Perhaps you need to break out the bottle.

Or, put it away... What ever the case might be.

[Canoerebel]

Great quote, DW.

I don't need a bottle, though. Right now, I'm worried that it's too bold.

[ny59giants]

Mindanao and some of the islands in the Philippine Archipelago area. Dan is saying he needs to keep the fleet on station for two months. Lots of potential size 9 AFs here.

[DW]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Great quote, DW.

I don't need a bottle, though. Right now, I'm worried that it's too bold.

If that's the case then, per Lincoln, a barrel of whatever Grant was drinking! [;)]