The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Here's a breakdown of the 19 primary targets by code name.

Key:
Importance of objective on scale of 1 (least importance) to 3 (most important)
Size: Small, Medium or Large
Anticipated Difficulty in taking on a scale of 1 (no opposition expected) to 5 (potentially heavily defended)

1. Augur: 2M3
2. Drill: 1S1
3. Mace: 2L1
4. Router: 2L1
5. Eldorado: 1S0
6. Scroll: 1M1
7. Band: 3L2
8. Awl: 1M1
9. Wedge: 3L2
10. Mattock: 1M1
11. Dibble: 2M3
12. Hoe: 3L3
13. Rake: 3L4
14. Shovel: 1S1
15. Ax: 1S1
16. Crosscut:2M2
17. Pick: 3L4
18. Tiller: 2M3
19. Tractor: 2M2

The five targets beginning with "3" are the major targets. Of these, the first two are the keys to the entire operation. If those are taken and built up, anything else is gravy. But there should be gravy given the number of small bases in which little or no opposition is expected.

Judging by John's most recent post title ("Incoming!") he recognizes (or strongly suspects) that the TF concentration his Glen spotted is the real thing. So he will have his defenses configured.

There is one stretch of ocean - roughly 15 hexes - that should be the most fraught with peril. If I make it safely through that zone, the approach to the beachheads should be less tense.

The question is whether John pulls the trigger when he has a chances (or chances) to combine KB and LBA.

[savelius2]

At this point in the war risk taking seems like it's in your favor. If you have a bad outcome you end up delayed a few months and end up pushing more under LBA. If he has another bad day at sea you can start really pushing at a high rate. No matter what outcome you can keep the initiative somewhere.

[Reg]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

I've noticed that John has been surprisingly engaged over the past few weeks. I say "surprised," because I had expected demoralization after the Great Naval Battle of Wake Island. At first, I attributed his energy his carrier raid against the LOC between Wake and Midway (which drilled a dry hole). Now I wonder if he's received carrier replacements and feels like he is ready to stand up to Death Star. That's what rattles my nerves.

Historically, one Midway debacle doomed the IJ fleet. In this mod, it looks like it will take 2 or maybe even 3 such defeats to do the job.

Also though the MiniKB was decimated, the big boys were not hit nearly so hard. John probably believes he still has the muscle. I can't believe how many flight decks there are in this mod.

[Canoerebel]

I think John lost the about 550 in flight-deck capacity. That's a lot, but it's not fatal.

Since the great naval battle, I've lost about 190 - Wasp (sunk), Sangamon (damaged), Victorious (withdrawn), Corregidor (sunk). But I've picked up Bunker Hill, two or three CVL, and two or three CVE. So I'm probably up a tad bit while John is probably down a bit (even with newly arrived carriers).

The big difference is that now the tables are turned: at Wake he was in my territory, I had good intel on him, and he had no intel on me. Now I'll be in his territory; he'll have good intel on me, I probably won't have good intel on him.

Am I a strong bull moving against a wounded and timid panther, or am I a cow ambling into a kill zone?

[Flicker]

Or, with all those saws, are you the lumberjack?

Cutting down trees, shopping, pressing wild flowers, hanging around in bars...

[Flicker]

BTW have you read 'Failure in the Saddle'. I'm guessing you've been to Chickamauga a few times...

[Canoerebel]

10/24/43

Big Tent: John is really giving the game his full attention. He knows I'm coming. And he's acting like he's ready and eager to give battle. He must have gotten a bunch more carriers.

The Allied armada is strung out for 18 hexes as many of the slower TFs are out front and some of the fast ones (combat, carrier) are still at Pearl. But there are still a bunch of big supply TFs at Pearl. All of them will depart tonight. They'll catch up, either because the lead TFs have to go slow enough for the slow guys or, if necessary, I'll pause to let all ships rendezvous.

Originally I had expected real loading to begin around the 25th, so this op is ahead of schedule.

I don't think John got any nav search on any of the TFs today. But one of his subs near Midway sank crippled DD Tenedos, which was badly damaged when Haruna led the bombardment of Wake Island a week or so back.
I'm very interested in seeing when he gets the next sighting. A lot of ships are closing in on Midway. A few picket YMS are moving out from Midway to the NW - to scout for the enemy shy of Marcus Island.

In addition to the massive logistics involved in this op, I've also been tending to other things: what happens if things go well and I want to build on Big Tent? What happens if things go badly? What are my future objectives? What are my viable options to retire? So I'm positioning lots of supply and fuel and some support ships where they can be useful. And if things do go well, I'll be ready to build on Big Tent quickly.

Lion Tamer: Koumac and Noumea fall to the Allies today. That's enough noise and employment of ships to get John's attention. I won't be going any further short term. There's a chance John could send carriers down this way, and I have plans for my CVEs. So they'll retire for now to a safe harbor.

Points: When we resumed the game on 1/3/1943, John was ahead by 17,000 points. It stayed right there until he conquered Sabang. The massive loss of troops bumped his lead to 20,000. The lead decreased to 18k after the Great Naval Battle of Wake Island. With the fall of Koumac and Noumea, his lead is down to 16.7k. That's the lowest its been since we resumed.

[Canoerebel]

Flickr, I have a forestry degree and worked in the industry for awhile, so you might say I'm a lumber jack.

I've been to Chickamauga many times. I've written quite a few stories and poems about the battle. I love the place.

One of the signal events of my life took place there about 17 years ago. When my oldest son was 3 or 4, I took him on a bike ride at Chickamauga. As I peddled along, I felt him tap my back (he was in a seat behind me). "Daddy?" he asked. "I always wanted a daddy like you."

When the time comes for an obituary, I'd rather the local paper mention that than any accomplishment or position.

[Canoerebel]

10/25/43

Big Tent: John didn't get any NavSearch detection on the TFs, but one of his subs did stumble across a TF that consists of an AE and three DDs. This happened near Layson Island. So he knows generally where the ships are.

The last TFs leave Pearl tonight.

John is probably focusing on the Bonins, Marcus and the Carolines. I've stationed subs and engaged in recon meant to lead him that way (a USN sub scored a hit on an xAK near Iwo today). And, of course, the TFs are moving in that direction. SigInt hasn't provided any worrisome reports.

[Canoerebel]

The Carolines under observation.

[Canoerebel]

This was a fun three minute diversion: period music, dancing, and movie stars.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2aqHGaSxRI

[Canoerebel]

10/26/43

Big Tent: John picked up low detection on at least one of the TFs, reinforcing the general movement towards Midway.

Reconnaissance shows that John is defending forward in strength. The intel is pretty interesting:

1. Marcus: garrison up to 11k, from just 4k a few days back. So he's scrambling to attend to this island.
2. Tabituea: 20k
3. Ocean: 6k
4. Nauru: 8k
5. Kusaie: 20k
6. Ponape: 18k
7. Kwaj: 14k
8. Roi-Namur: 11 units
9. Eniwetok: 15k
10. Truk: 23k
11. Saipan: 18k
12. Pagan: 10k

John is truly energized. This is not a good sign. He wants to give battle, so he's flipping turns fast. If he prevails in the coming contest, then defending forward will pay handsome dividends. If the Allies prevail, he's going to have all kinds of logistical issues on his hands.

The forward elements of the Big Tent armada are more than 25% to target. These TFs are moving slowly to allow the late-departing TFs to catch up. Depending on what happens over the next few days, I have the option of refueling TFs at Midway or even Wake. That would allow some TKs to return home. The downside is it slows everything down. But it would really help with the fuel situation.

The first landing should take place in two weeks or less. I wonder if a great naval battle takes place before then.

During Big Tent, John will have free reign to hit Wake. He ought to do so, because it's a key base. I don't want to lose it, and I'll have to retake it. This time, though, he won't have time to build six forts. The base currently has 2.63 forts with 125 AV 100% prepped, so he'll have to work for it.

Bearded Lady: John sent a DD TF to Maloelap to battle with PT boats and hunt merchants. He sunk two PTs, but one of his DD hit a mine and sank. That was not profitable.

[Canoerebel]

In equal and opposite reaction to John's energy, the AAR has suddenly gone quiet. It's Friday night, so you guys might be wooing lovely women or watching a baseball game.

But I think you're conscientiously avoiding any chance of an OpSec issue and waiting to see what happens. Or maybe everybody's tuned in to Lowpe vs. Jocke. "Beer made me do it 2.0!"

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In equal and opposite reaction to John's energy, the AAR has suddenly gone quiet. It's Friday night, so you guys might be wooing lovely women or watching a baseball game.

But I think you're conscientiously avoiding any chance of an OpSec issue and waiting to see what happens. Or maybe everybody's tuned in to Lowpe vs. Jocke. "Beer made me do it 2.0!"

OK, you asked for it!

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

...so you might say I'm a lumber jack.

And you're OK! [:D]

BTW:
"One of the signal events of my life took place there about 17 years ago. When my oldest son was 3 or 4, I took him on a bike ride at Chickamauga. As I peddled along, I felt him tap my back (he was in a seat behind me). "Daddy?" he asked. "I always wanted a daddy like you."

When the time comes for an obituary, I'd rather the local paper mention that than any accomplishment or position."

Awesome story! And no better epitaph.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In equal and opposite reaction to John's energy, the AAR has suddenly gone quiet. It's Friday night, so you guys might be wooing lovely women or watching a baseball game.

But I think you're conscientiously avoiding any chance of an OpSec issue and waiting to see what happens. Or maybe everybody's tuned in to Lowpe vs. Jocke. "Beer made me do it 2.0!"

The forum is holding its breath for both AARs right now! You seem to show that you are antsy by the constant stream of posts![:D]
Waiting is hard and you want to see how it turns out, but doing things right means you can't really flip three turns a day and handle a massive invasion prep at the same time!
I'm pretty confident all will be well. If he suddenly hardens all of your targets you can do what you did in NorPac - change direction and this time invade Honshu! That would be a nice counterpoint to Jocke/Lowpe's game!

[Canoerebel]

I can flip turns now since all the TFs are at see. It's the loading and checking and changing captains and attending to aircraft and pilots and on and on and on that requires the zillion clicks. Now it's just a matter of herding the cattle along the Chisholm Trail.

I'm not seeing any signs of a Just in Time Reinforcements. In fact, quite the opposite. I think John is looking where I had hoped he'd look. I could be wrong. Or I could be right but he could win a naval battle.

Hey, BB, shouldn't you be wooing a lovely lass?

[BBfanboy]

At my age, I wouldn't know what to do with her if I caught her! I certainly can't boogie to "In the Mood" like the people in the video clip!

[T Rav]

CR,

I don't check the opposing side, so no chance of HUMINT here.

From what I can see, you are aggressive and deliberate. I wouldn't want you as my opponent. That is about as dangerous as it can get. That's also why I read your post.

Good Hunting!
T Rav

[Canoerebel]

Email from John accompanying latest turn, which I'm about to run: "Month is nearly done. Now WHERE did that invasion force disappear to? I have my invasion sniffer on FULL AUTO!"

[Canoerebel]

10/27/43

Big Tent: A pleasantly uneventful day as the thundering herd lumbers forward. The lead group of TFs, which has grown very large, is 1/3rd of the way to the first target. The TFs are still strong out, but the gap between the head and the tail closed from 18 hexes to 14 hexes today.

There are enemy subs amidst the TFs, but John seemed to get a sighting on only one small SC TF. I don't like sending my carriers right through known sub concentrations, but better to keep them in place, trailing multiple ASW TFs, than send them around the flank where more subs might lurk.

If John is inclined to be focusing on the Marianas and Marcus, then today was another good day of feeding this idea. Sunfish and Flying Fish sank xAKs right in front of Saipan while Gato missed a shot at another nearby. SigInt reports an arty regiment inbound to Saipan. These are favorable signs. I could be making the mistake of interpreting everything in a too favorable light, but I don't think so.

While enemy subs are always a threat, I don't think there's a serious chance of an altercation with enemy LBA, combat ships or carriers until the armada is about 2/3rds of the way to the target. That should be in about six or seven days. The first landing should take place in 13-15 days.