TOP SECRET ORMSTER + WARSPITE ONLY

[warspite1]

Ormster - do you have any further moves to make or can I end the impulse?

[Orm]

Good that you asked. I forgot that I have rebases to do. Give me one minute or two and I post them here.


Edit: I assume that you would tell me if I missed a land move. [:)]

[Orm]

Spitfire to Gibraltar. F2A to Suez. Blenheim bomber from Malta to Oran.

Edit: And US can rebase the naval bomber to Pago Pago.

[warspite1]

What do you think about Finland Ormster? I think the Finns look very strong. Realistically I don't think I will be in a position to launch an attack until Sep/Oct.

What do you reckon? See how their attack on Spain goes and then review - and in the meantime keep building for claiming the borderlands?

[Orm]

I think Finland looks fairly strong but at the same time they do not have the power to defend more than, initially, to defend more than one front. So USSR should be able to advance into Finland 'proper' and avoid a early end of the war. The main Soviet concern is that China can eat up so many land moves.

Here are some of my thoughts about USSR vs Finland in our game.

1) US entry is decent so I rather not lose any chits for Finland.
2) USSR should produce for a war with Germany. A war with Finland will have to be fought with what is needed to defend against Germany.
3) Latest date to demand borderlands during 1940 is first Allied impulse in July.
4) Perfect time to do it is the impulse after Germany DOW Spain. Germany will then find it harder to do a combined in order to reinforce Finland.
5) If you think that Germany will attack USSR in '41 then I think the operation should be postponed. Perhaps abandoned altogether. Focus should then be shifted to prepare to defend against Germany. Lost US entry chits means delayed help to USSR. A German attack on USSR during '41 with Gibraltar in Axis control is to be feared.
6) If you go for the borderlands you need to decide if you want the war or not. If you want the war you should not be in a to strong position to scare Germany from the war. (Although you should be in a position to stop the forced peace and that you already are)
7) Once Zhukov is reorganized, the cavalry division in position to be used as a loss, and the bomber force in position for ground striking during the surprise then you are as good as you ever get. One can always improve the situation some more but time counts as well. The bad weather arrives early and rain is not your friend in Finland.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

I think Finland looks fairly strong but at the same time they do not have the power to defend more than, initially, to defend more than one front. So USSR should be able to advance into Finland 'proper' and avoid a early end of the war.

Yes the intended Soviet set up should ensure there is no early peace

The main Soviet concern is that China can eat up so many land moves.

That could be a big problem, depending on where the Japanese are concentrating.

Here are some of my thoughts about USSR vs Finland in our game.

1) US entry is decent so I rather not lose any chits for Finland.
2) USSR should produce for a war with Germany. A war with Finland will have to be fought with what is needed to defend against Germany.
3) Latest date to demand borderlands during 1940 is first Allied impulse in July.
Mmmm. If that is the case then suspect that is the answer right there
4) Perfect time to do it is the impulse after Germany DOW Spain. Germany will then find it harder to do a combined in order to reinforce Finland.
The Soviets won't be ready by then
5) If you think that Germany will attack USSR in '41 then I think the operation should be postponed. Perhaps abandoned altogether. Focus should then be shifted to prepare to defend against Germany. Lost US entry chits means delayed help to USSR. A German attack on USSR during '41 with Gibraltar in Axis control is to be feared.
We can only wait and see how Spain develops but yes, we have to assume the worst here.
6) If you go for the borderlands you need to decide if you want the war or not. If you want the war you should not be in a to strong position to scare Germany from the war. (Although you should be in a position to stop the forced peace and that you already are)
Agreed, which is why I cannot see a request happening before Sep/Oct.
7) Once Zhukov is reorganized, the cavalry division in position to be used as a loss, and the bomber force in position for ground striking during the surprise then you are as good as you ever get. One can always improve the situation some more but time counts as well. The bad weather arrives early and rain is not your friend in Finland.
Okay - this helps confirm my thinking. I will continue to reinforce the area and will make the request if I think the position is Spain/China warrants the risk. But right now, it ain't looking at all likely.....

warspite1

As above.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

6) If you go for the borderlands you need to decide if you want the war or not. If you want the war you should not be in a to strong position to scare Germany from the war. (Although you should be in a position to stop the forced peace and that you already are)
Agreed, which is why I cannot see a request happening before Sep/Oct.

If we wait for Autumn then the possibility bad weather (60% risk of rain or worse and that is without die modifier) might increase the possibility of a war with Finland. The turns are also shorter so it will take longer and increase the risk that USSR is not ready for a '41 Barbarossa.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: warspite1

6) If you go for the borderlands you need to decide if you want the war or not. If you want the war you should not be in a to strong position to scare Germany from the war. (Although you should be in a position to stop the forced peace and that you already are)
Agreed, which is why I cannot see a request happening before Sep/Oct.

If we wait for Autumn then the possibility bad weather (60% risk of rain or worse and that is without die modifier) might increase the possibility of a war with Finland. The turns are also shorter so it will take longer and increase the risk that USSR is not ready for a '41 Barbarossa.

warspite1

Indeedly - hence my closing remark.

Okay - this helps confirm my thinking. I will continue to reinforce the area and will make the request if I think the position is Spain/China warrants the risk. But right now, it ain't looking at all likely.....

If the Germans get a dream campaign in Spain then Finland isn't happening no matter what. If they get a bad one (combat rolls, weather, turn length) then even a late start in Finland may be possible. And of course there are a billion permutations in between [;)]

[Orm]

Since the neutrality of Spain is honoured by all parties it is unlikely that they will be drawn into the war.

But if the unexpected should happen, how would you place the Spanish units?

[warspite1]

I think first and foremost, I agree, the Axis are a friendly, often mis-understood bunch, and will be unlikely to attack their fellow fascists. After all, who ever heard of a jumped up little corporal-cum-dictator deciding to stab his friend Spain in the back? [:D]

[warspite1]

.....however, assuming history repeats itself, the first thing I would do is dress the Spanish in a more appropriate colour. Pink? For fighting? I don't think so......

[warspite1]

I see the dastardly Boche have a paratrooper - what is the likely destination for that I wonder? Somewhere fleet support can assist perhaps?

Do we assume the Germans will only attack once the British are removed? Or are they going to attack anyway? Makes a big difference to the set-up as in the latter case we can concentrate less on the northwest front.

My guess is they won't want to delay but may do so for one impulse as they have not got their mountain troops in place - in fact scrub that - one is on the Eastern Front so nor is von Rundstedt in position either?

[Orm]

I see the dastardly Boche have a paratrooper - what is the likely destination for that I wonder? Somewhere fleet support can assist perhaps?

Somewhere where they will put the defenders out of supply. Or cut their retreat. During the surprise they land automatically on most hexes out of ZOC. Otherwise air support should be enough to make it an automatic attack.

[Orm]

Since the RN is out in strength I would avoid attacking Bayonne until after attacking Spain. When CW has so much shore bombardment available it will drain both air and land resources to clear Bayonne. And if CW lose one unit in the hex then there is the possibility that CW reinforce the hex. And then they have just wasted time for a militia or garrison.

I think it is better for Axis to bypass it for now.

[Orm]

My guess is they won't want to delay but may do so for one impulse as they have not got their mountain troops in place - in fact scrub that - one is on the Eastern Front so nor is von Rundstedt in position either?

Yes. I've been surprised with their slow build-up once Vichy was invaded. They must have been really annoyed with that British motorized Corps. I am glad we retreated it to the cost. [:)]

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

My guess is they won't want to delay but may do so for one impulse as they have not got their mountain troops in place - in fact scrub that - one is on the Eastern Front so nor is von Rundstedt in position either?

Yes. I've been surprised with their slow build-up once Vichy was invaded. They must have been really annoyed with that British motorized Corps. I am glad we retreated it to the cost. [:)]

warspite1

The trouble is of course, as we know to our cost in France, it only takes a few key dice throws to go right and even with the units they have, they can still go through Spain like a dose of salts.

I agree with your summary of the Bayonne situation. So that could assist us greatly in defending northwest Spain....

[brian brian]

A lot of ways to defend Spain. The passes of the Pyrnenees, the Ebro, the mountain citadels, the Mediterranean ports, Er Rif.

I think you have some good things going in multiple ways

1 - the Axis don't have many divisions on the Med coast. But with even one available, you might want to defend the hex adjacent to Tangier with a ZoC generating unit. Franco, perhaps? (This lack of divisions is also a good thing for Wavell's vulnerable position)

2 - the position in Bayonne - the Germans are still possibly an impulse short of getting a solid 3-hex attack on it, depending on if they have 4 mover infantry or 6 mover armor in Toulouse or under the Ju-52 (I don't think so?). This could play in to a decision to tie down a lot of Germans around Bilbao, along with

3 - Defensive Shore Bombardment

Keep in mind that to use advantage #3 very much, you will need to align the Spanish to the CW, and they get tied down with Naval and Combined impulses. A mobile defense is then more challenging. If you align them to the French, they have more freedom of movement but can't call on the guns of Home Fleet or Force H at Bilbao or Barcelona. The French could supply some DSB but the Royal Navy is bigger. A mobile defense can frustrate the Luftwaffe though, very short legs on those Stukas. The most firepower the Germans can generate against the mountain hexes is on the surprise impulse. So first I would pick a strategy/operational theme for the defense.

Ultimately I would make the final tactical decisions based on the fine points of their deployment @ Axis DoW, because they might not DoW this impulse, preferring to batter a nice juicy 8 BP target -

I was surprised the RAF fighter groups in Bayonne didn't fly out to sea when they had the chance.

[Courtenay]

I repeat that I am very dubious about Finland, simply because the two US entry chits are worth more than everything in Finland. And that doesn't even count the cost to the Russians, who can't expect a bloodless victory; indeed, they can't even count on a victory, depending on how strongly the Germans reinforce Finland.

[Courtenay]

If the CW still holds Bayonne when the Axis declares war on Spain, that makes the Spanish defense much easier. I always defend Barcelona and Bilbao strongly, both being mountain coastal hexes. Once the Germans get past those places, there is not much stopping them in the rest of Spain.

[warspite1]

To be fair, I do not want to criticise my Allied partner but I think Orm has already compromised the Spanish defence. I mean seriously, how do the Spanish troops conceal themselves in the mountains wearing this?