Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

In order to capture a base the attacker needs combat odds greater than the fortification level. So the first Japanese attack would have to get to 10:1 odds to have a chance of capturing San Diego. Even if reduced to Lvl 6, which would take at least two "successful" attacks by the Japanese, they would need a 7:1 attack. I doubt they can get odds that high once you have gotten all of your emergency response air force units in place. You should have ample opportunity to launch ground strikes on his LCUs moving from Santa Ana to San Diego in clear terrain. The disruption levels for the Japanese should be sufficient to cause delays in his ability to attack with full effectiveness.

Yes, but they can reduce the forts one level per turn even with 1:47 billion odds as long as they have combat engineers in the attack.

On the plus side, unless he damages and keeps damaged the airfield or port the forts can be rebuilt.

All those low odds attacks cost men, materials and supplies. And the first casualties among the men will be many of the combat engineers needed to reduce the forts.

My concern from watching events is the inability to keep airpower in the region. The target rich environment is at its most vulnerable. There is a strong likelihood that LBA fighters will be making an appearance soon. If that happens then the role of the KB can convert from totally defensive to offensive. There are 5 airfields that would have been easy to secure that should all be Lvl 7 or larger. There should be literally hundreds of aircraft with strikes plotted on Japanese shipping and ground forces on a daily basis.

The AI does this to me quite frequently in China and believe it or not rarely suffers catastrophic losses as a result.

Often the losses are so minimal it has me crying foul.

Obviously my 1:47 billion odds reference was an exaggeration, but I swear I have seen 1:700 odds attacks lower a fort and suffer only minimal losses.

Not saying a player would attempt this as his apprehension over huge losses would likely preclude it ever being tried.

AI games can produce results one would never see in head to head games.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

What CD guns are in LA / SD... I've seen 16" battery fortifications at point Loma, and I can't imagine LA having less. My experience with those monsters is that you probably want him to bombard LA. Would it be so bad to keep flying from there? A few destroyed ac many damaged (that can be railed out), a bunch of sunk cruisers, destroyers and damaged battleships a loooooooong way from repair.

From my experience CD guns are completely useless against bombardments. They only really matter against landings.

Well, this depends on the armor of the attacking vessels and the minimum specified range of the bombardment plus the caliber of the CD guns, fatigue, commander..etc. etc. I have definitely seen DD's take damage or even a CA lose a main battery to damage. I you stand off 4000 yds or so and use BB's they are almost invulnerable.
It makes perfect sense that a maneuvering bombardment force is much less vulnerable than an amphibious force trying to disembark. I have seen mine sweeper TF's obliterated without a trace by CD guns.

I sent BBs & CAs to bombard Pescadores and from 26000 yards out they took hits from the shore batteries (20 and 15.5 cm). There were a couple of hits on belt armour which did not penetrate, but most hit superstructure or destroyed a secondary/AA gun before hitting deck or belt armour. I assume radar or lack of it has some effect on ability to target/hit bombarding ships.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Why shore batteries do not fire is a mystery to me. I would think that ships would have to alter their paths to avoid even harassing fire, and that would reduce the effectiveness of any shore bombardment. I think there might be a glitch that prevents the CD units from firing based on the shortest ranged weapon in each unit. As such a CD unit with 14" or 16" guns don't fire because the guns with less range can't reach the targets.

There are special narrow strait rules that are covered in one of the appendices. In AI experiments I've seen CD guns in narrow straits gut passing TFs.

But my experience with bombardments matches Jocke's. I don't even consider CD when doing a bombardment, even against a naval fortress such as Truk.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Obviously my 1:47 billion odds reference was an exaggeration, but I swear I have seen 1:700 odds attacks lower a fort and suffer only minimal losses.

Not saying a player would attempt this as his apprehension over huge losses would likely preclude it ever being tried.

AI games can produce results one would never see in head to head games.

Yes, these attacks can happen. "(side) Assault reduces fortifications to X" is a message that can occur on any attack, but obviously you'll see it more often with better attack odds. Note that it says Assault, not engineers. It's the attack itself that reduces the forts, and it doesn't have to be a good attack to drop the forts.

The casualty numbers are only loosely related to the attack odds. The firepower and condition of the opposing units, plus some luck, is taken into account here. Also, there is a heavy degree of FOW in ground combat results.

Lastly, AI games can have different circumstances simply because of the way the AI works, but the results themselves would be identical with a PBEM/HTH game if the circumstances were identical.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Obviously my 1:47 billion odds reference was an exaggeration, but I swear I have seen 1:700 odds attacks lower a fort and suffer only minimal losses.

Not saying a player would attempt this as his apprehension over huge losses would likely preclude it ever being tried.

AI games can produce results one would never see in head to head games.

Yes, these attacks can happen. "(side) Assault reduces fortifications to X" is a message that can occur on any attack, but obviously you'll see it more often with better attack odds. Note that it says Assault, not engineers. It's the attack itself that reduces the forts, and it doesn't have to be a good attack to drop the forts.

The casualty numbers are only loosely related to the attack odds. The firepower and condition of the opposing units, plus some luck, is taken into account here. Also, there is a heavy degree of FOW in ground combat results.

Lastly, AI games can have different circumstances simply because of the way the AI works, but the results themselves would be identical with a PBEM/HTH game if the circumstances were identical.

Yes, an assault has to be made to drop forts, and the infantry are supposed to lead the assault with combat engineers using opportunities to demolish fortifications. But if there is not enough infantry to keep the enemy pinned down, the engineers will suffer greatly, and if there are not enough engineers to (with very good/aggressive leaders) to work on the forts, reduction of forts will be very slow or at high cost.

As many have said, the combat model seems to favour an attack at odds equal to or better than the fort level (infantry/tank assault values) before giving the engineers much chance of reducing the forts, with sustainable casualties.
There was a post a few months ago about an amphibious assault in which only combat engineers landed and shock attacked. They were wiped out.

[tiemanjw]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Why shore batteries do not fire is a mystery to me. I would think that ships would have to alter their paths to avoid even harassing fire, and that would reduce the effectiveness of any shore bombardment. I think there might be a glitch that prevents the CD units from firing based on the shortest ranged weapon in each unit. As such a CD unit with 14" or 16" guns don't fire because the guns with less range can't reach the targets.

There are special narrow strait rules that are covered in one of the appendices. In AI experiments I've seen CD guns in narrow straits gut passing TFs.

But my experience with bombardments matches Jocke's. I don't even consider CD when doing a bombardment, even against a naval fortress such as Truk.

hmmm... I've mostly seen them take a heavy toll on passing TFs and mine sweepers. I guess I've just been too timid to bombard. Perhaps I'll need to visit some love on Kobe and return the favor.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

hmmm... I've mostly seen them take a heavy toll on passing TFs and mine sweepers. I guess I've just been too timid to bombard. Perhaps I'll need to visit some love on Kobe and return the favor.

Minesweepers for sure, but they have to stay to work. Bombardments are in and out, usually in the dark.

I'm in the middle of an invasion of Truk in my Lokasenna game, which is why this is top of mind. My YMS TFs sent in were crushed, as expected. They're single-use minesweepers. But I have 4 IDs-plus ashore and not one mine strike, so it was worth it. I've bombarded either two or three times at this point, slow BBs mostly, and the shore reaction has been a non-factor. BBs embedded with the landings took a lot of hits; I think BB Valiant took 43 in one turn. Truk CD has over 900 guns.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: tiemanj

hmmm... I've mostly seen them take a heavy toll on passing TFs and mine sweepers. I guess I've just been too timid to bombard. Perhaps I'll need to visit some love on Kobe and return the favor.

Minesweepers for sure, but they have to stay to work. Bombardments are in and out, usually in the dark.

I'm in the middle of an invasion of Truk in my Lokasenna game, which is why this is top of mind. My YMS TFs sent in were crushed, as expected. They're single-use minesweepers. But I have 4 IDs-plus ashore and not one mine strike, so it was worth it. I've bombarded either two or three times at this point, slow BBs mostly, and the shore reaction has been a non-factor. BBs embedded with the landings took a lot of hits; I think BB Valiant took 43 in one turn. Truk CD has over 900 guns.

Well, they fired over 900 times. There definitely aren't 900 guns.

[Barb]

Primary purpose of CD unit in hex is that it is a primary target for Naval Bombardment INSTEAD of your combat Infantry units! You can see CD unit with DIS at 90s while your IDs are at low numbers. Without CD unit, you will see your Infantry with much higher DISruption...

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Well, they fired over 900 times. There definitely aren't 900 guns.

You're right. I looked back and each CR says "shots." Still a whole lot of guns.

For anyone contemplating landing at Truk, this is from one turn. Nineteen rounds of CD fire. As I said to Loka, them's SOME ops points:

1. Night Naval bombardment of Truk at 112,108 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

518 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB Valiant, Shell hits 43, on fire
BB Mississippi, Shell hits 2
BB New Mexico, Shell hits 27, on fire
BB Idaho
BB Colorado, Shell hits 14

2. 703 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB California, Shell hits 29, on fire
BB Oklahoma, Shell hits 26, on fire
DD Hughes, Shell hits 2, on fire
AP Gen. T.H.Bliss, Shell hits 1
AKA Centarus, Shell hits 2
APA Storm King
APA La Salle, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Mustin
APA Sumter, Shell hits 1
APA Cambria

3. Pre-Invasion action off Truk (112,108) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

889 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB Maryland, Shell hits 28, on fire
DD Eaton
DD Converse, Shell hits 1, on fire
AP Gen. G.O.Squier, Shell hits 5
AP William Ward Burrows, Shell hits 14, heavy fires, heavy damage
SC PC-1078
SC PC-1077
APA Knox

4. Pre-Invasion action off Truk (112,108)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

402 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
YMS-130, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
AM Katoomba
AM Kapunda
AM Bowen
YMS-148
YMS-150
LST-30
LST-27
LST-31
LST-40
LST-34

5. Pre-Invasion action off Truk (112,108)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

412 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
LCI(G)-77, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
LCI(G)-79
SC PC-789
SC PC-779
LCI(G)-80
SC PC-782
SC PC-579
LCI(G)-78
LST-217
LST-471
LST-214
LST-218

6. Pre-Invasion action off Truk (112,108) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

993 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
CLAA San Diego, Shell hits 5, on fire
DD Miller, Shell hits 1
DD Fullam, Shell hits 1
LCI-330
DD Haraden
LCI-83
LCI-75
LCI-216, Shell hits 1, heavy damage
SC PC-790
LCI-84
LCI-85


7. Pre-Invasion action off Truk (112,108)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

389 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DMS Emmons
DMS Zane
APD Rathburne
APD Belknap
APD Overton
APD Goldsborough
APD Little
APD Manley

8. Invasion Support action off Truk (112,108)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

254 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DD Mustin
AP Gen. T.H.Bliss, Shell hits 8, heavy fires
BB California, on fire
BB Oklahoma, on fire
APA La Salle, Shell hits 5, on fire
AKA Centarus, Shell hits 11, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Hughes, on fire
DE Neuendorf
APA Callaway
APA Cambri

9. Invasion Support action off Truk (112,108) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

235 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DD Eaton, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Chauncey, Shell hits 1, on fire
SC PC-1078
SC PC-1077
APA Knox

10. Invasion Support action off Truk (112,108)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

375 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
YMS-148, Shell hits 11, heavy fires, heavy damage
YMS-150
AM Katoomba
AM Kapunda
AM Bowen
LST-31
LST-30
LST-27

11. Invasion Support action off Truk (112,108)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

205 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
LCI(G)-78, Shell hits 13, heavy fires, heavy damage
SC PC-779
SC PC-789
SC PC-782
SC PC-579
LCI(G)-79
LCI(G)-80
LST-217
LST-214

12. Invasion Support action off Truk (112,108) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

382 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DD Miller, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Haraden, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Fullam, Shell hits 8, heavy fires
LCI-85, Shell hits 2, heavy damage
CLAA San Diego, on fire
LCI-219, Shell hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
DE Duffy
LCI-75, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
LCI-84, Shell hits 2
SC PC-790
LCI-83

13. Invasion Support action off Truk (112,108)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

205 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DMS Emmons
DMS Zane
APD Rathburne
APD Belknap
APD Overton
APD Goldsborough
APD Little
APD Manley

14. nvasion Support action off Truk (112,108)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

39 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
AP Gen. T.H.Bliss
BB Oklahoma
APA La Salle
BB California
DD Hughes
AKA Centarus, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
APA Bolivar, Shell hits 3, on fire
APA Cambria

15. Invasion Support action off Truk (112,108)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

19 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
YMS-150, Shell hits 13, heavy fires, heavy damage
LST-85
LST-82
LST-34
LST-31
LST-27
LST-30

16. Invasion Support action off Truk (112,108)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

42 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
LCI(G)-79, Shell hits 11, heavy fires, heavy damage
SC PC-579
LST-477
LST-470
LST-338
LST-217
LST-214
LST-218

17. Invasion Support action off Truk (112,108)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

18 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
LCI-217, Shell hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Haraden, heavy damage
LCI-84
CLAA San Diego
LCI-446
SC PC-790
LCI-526
LCI-402
LCI-333
LCI-330
LCI-83
LCI-218

19. Invasion Support action off Truk (112,108)
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

48 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
LSD White Marsh
AKA Andromeda, Shell hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
APD Manley
DMS Emmons
DMS Zane
APD Rathburne, Shell hits 3, on fire
APD Belknap
APD Overton
APD Goldsborough
APD Little

[Lokasenna]

Just remember that some of those "Coastal gun shots" are from non-CD guns firing at the abstracted landing craft.

Also, I saw something in my other game where more hits were reported on ships than shots were fired. I found that odd. If I can remember when/where it happened I'll try to track it down.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Just remember that some of those "Coastal gun shots" are from non-CD guns firing at the abstracted landing craft.

Also, I saw something in my other game where more hits were reported on ships than shots were fired. I found that odd. If I can remember when/where it happened I'll try to track it down.

I've seen the same kind of over-reporting of hits too. IIRC I once had flak damage more aircraft than were in a raid. I put it all down to FOW - different positions reporting the same incident and Intel boys adding all the reports up.

[JocMeister]

Alexander sick. Probably chickenpox.

No turn or update tonight. Sorry guys.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Just remember that some of those "Coastal gun shots" are from non-CD guns firing at the abstracted landing craft.

Also, I saw something in my other game where more hits were reported on ships than shots were fired. I found that odd. If I can remember when/where it happened I'll try to track it down.

I've seen the same kind of over-reporting of hits too. IIRC I once had flak damage more aircraft than were in a raid. I put it all down to FOW - different positions reporting the same incident and Intel boys adding all the reports up.

Aircraft damage reports are different. Each time a plane is damaged, it's reported. Flak gets to fire twice at aircraft - once before they drop, and once after.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Well, they fired over 900 times. There definitely aren't 900 guns.

You're right. I looked back and each CR says "shots." Still a whole lot of guns.

For anyone contemplating landing at Truk, this is from one turn. Nineteen rounds of CD fire. As I said to Loka, them's SOME ops points:

-edit for brevity-

Hmm, I'm actually kinda disappointed in that result.

Considering that Truk has the same number of naval guns as a bunch of cruisers and destroyers, I'd have hoped to have seen CD fire damage the smaller amphibious ships rather that pour shell after shell into the BB's.

Still, I take it that the CD guns performed their function in that the CD unit ate all the disruption and the ships off-shore are out of rounds?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Well, they fired over 900 times. There definitely aren't 900 guns.

You're right. I looked back and each CR says "shots." Still a whole lot of guns.

For anyone contemplating landing at Truk, this is from one turn. Nineteen rounds of CD fire. As I said to Loka, them's SOME ops points:

-edit for brevity-

Hmm, I'm actually kinda disappointed in that result.

Considering that Truk has the same number of naval guns as a bunch of cruisers and destroyers, I'd have hoped to have seen CD fire damage the smaller amphibious ships rather that pour shell after shell into the BB's.

Still, I take it that the CD guns performed their function in that the CD unit ate all the disruption and the ships off-shore are out of rounds?

Umm . . . no. [8D]

[JocMeister]

Told Jeff I needed the turn during the day today if I were to finish it before I leave for the midsummer celebration.

Didnt get it so I told Jeff to hang on to it until Saturday. Now I´m off to drink snaps and beer and eat sill and potato.

Happy midsummer fellas!

[Grollub]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Told Jeff I needed the turn during the day today if I were to finish it before I leave for the midsummer celebration.

Didnt get it so I told Jeff to hang on to it until Saturday. Now I´m off to drink snaps and beer and eat sill and potato.

Happy midsummer fellas!

What a coincidence. I have the same agenda. [:D][;)]

Oh, and have a good midsummer celebration!

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Told Jeff I needed the turn during the day today if I were to finish it before I leave for the midsummer celebration.

Didnt get it so I told Jeff to hang on to it until Saturday. Now I´m off to drink snaps and beer and eat sill and potato.

Happy midsummer fellas!

I hope your celebration won't be spoiled by the poor performance of the Swedish futbol team in France. They were, sorry to say, underwhelming.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Told Jeff I needed the turn during the day today if I were to finish it before I leave for the midsummer celebration.

Didnt get it so I told Jeff to hang on to it until Saturday. Now I´m off to drink snaps and beer and eat sill and potato.

Happy midsummer fellas!

Over twenty years ago I was lucky enough to experience midsummer in Whitehorse, Yukon. I had never been that far north on that day. Kegs at many intersections downtown. At 0200 it was still light enough to read a book outside.