The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

Re: Sabang. Risking and losing approx. 7 divisions and supporting forces (most of which can be rebuilt) reduced the period of IJ initiative by at least 6 months. Huge win.

I think Alfred's point was that John III turned it into a win by not appropriately exploiting the Allied weakness in LCUs during the period the destroyed units were rebuilding.
I'm not sure I completely understand Alfred's expectations for the IJA after Sabang - they could go after China and Burma/Assam or even press further in SOPAC, but CR has shown that his current moves make all those areas irrelevant.

Except for VP harvesting purposes... don't underestimate LCU VPs. Also, I wonder if it would have been possible to bleed the Allied army device pools even more. That would be a gamebreaker if it got far enough.

[Canoerebel]

John Dillworth, you're right about the subs.

You know, I don't often mention sub warfare. Sub warfare is an important part of my game, but I just don't talk about results very often. It's not part of my DNA, as it would be for the Moose, and it isn't dear to me, as I think it is for John. I work sub warfare pretty hard, but I seldom report results unless it's a major target or confirmation of a trend in enemy shipping or movement.

Since Big Tent left Pearl Harbor, alot of attention was focused on that crazy couple of days when John's subs were alarmingly, startlingly effective. It rattled my cage! In that time, he damaged CL Birmingham (it's now one hex from Pearl), and sank probably a dozen xAK, xAP, one LCI and a TK or two.

But you know what? I think Allied subs have been almost as effective over that period of time (except for the CL) - my subs have gotten a bunch of xAK, a few xAP, a TK or two, plus damaged an AO. Nothing earthshaking, but consistent with my idea that shifting my subs to a slot between Truk and the Marianas, and then between the Marianas and the Philippines, was on target. I think that's where John's combat ships and commerce ships are likely to be over the coming weeks.

If (always "if") Big Tent is successful, it will pretty much close down Japanese commerce this side of Borneo. Everthing's going to have to go via the South China Sea. So it should become much easier to select sub patrol zones.

[Flicker]

John Dillworth - concur with ensuring sub commanders have high naval and aggression. I read some posts by the Moose that really made a difference in my sub play: commanders and recognizing subs as offensive platforms.

I wonder if CR's Operation Third Ring will provide a link to the current New Guinea Operation by taking Port Moresby and Rabaul or if Luzon is the target?

Thanks for the China info CR.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Except for VP harvesting purposes... don't underestimate LCU VPs. Also, I wonder if it would have been possible to bleed the Allied army device pools even more. That would be a gamebreaker if it got far enough.

John harvested 3k VPs for Allied LCUs wiped out at Sabang. That hurt and will be a factor in auto victory ratios, once that comes into serious play.

But the 3k was worth it if it allowed me to penetrate deeply into the soft, unprotected vitals of John's DEI underbelly by late 1943.

Look at it this way. If I had managed to hold Sabang in strength, I'd now be pushing foward in a ground campaign in jungle terrain. I'd be making headway and by 1944 would be able to target Singapore, Palembang, and vicinity with strategic bombing. The cost might (or might not) have been high, but the Allies would have a strong position.

But, in effect, the Allies have traded Sabang for a promising operation that should seize the northeastern, eastern, and southeastern DEI. Babo and Boela should be shut down in the near term. By 1944, Balikpapan, Samrinda and Tarakan should be within range of 4EB, sea lanes east of Borneo will be closed, and subs will be within range of the South China Sea. Too, John's entire defense seems to be unhinged so that he may be scrambling now to attend to bases in Borneo and vicinity.

John had flooded Sumatra with an army. My going would have been slow there. I traded a standoff for a dynamic campaign that's made massive incursions into the empire.

Sabang was worth it.

[1275psi]

You know what i think
Banzia time is over and john will shortly
Quit

Hope i am wrong though

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: 1275psi

You know what i think
Banzia time is over and john will shortly
Quit

Hope i am wrong though

I hope not, but you might be right. I originally planned to only post in John's AAR after the naval battle of Wake Island, but he hasn't posted that often or at any extended length, making this hard to do. So I'm back to reading either when they are updated. There have been no real updates from John's side for awhile.

[Canoerebel]

The herd closing on New Guinea.

[Lokasenna]

Quick! Find those Aussie paras and drop them at Manus!

[BBfanboy]

Do you have any intel on that enemy TF between Wewak and Manus?

Re: Satawal - he doesn't have to counter-invade if he just bombs the heck out of it from Truk.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Quick! Find those Aussie paras and drop them at Manus!

[:D]
Wishing there was a way to launch them from a CV!

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, the paras can't reach Manus.

The TF near Wewak is merchant ships - probably the TF that SigInt reported was carrying a CD unit to Manikwari.

[BBfanboy]

Well let's hope he doesn't drop it at Hollandia when your herd cuts him off from Manokwari.
Couple of Fletchers could deal with those merchies nicely!

[Canoerebel]

No, I'm not dispersing significant assets to go "backwards," at least not yet. I don't know where KB and the BBs are. And the real prizes lie ahead, as will be seen more clearly over the next few weeks. Better to focus forward while I can. Then I'll work backwards, on the north side of New Guinea or the south side or both.

[JohnDillworth]

Heh, got me there.....Did not think you would go that far. Bold move sir

[richlove]

What's that green-looking unit to the west of Balikpapan?

[Canoerebel]

That's a remnant Dutch unit from 1941. It doesn't have combat power, but it does keep tabs on the number of units at Balikpapan.

[Flicker]

My OCD would've kicked in and forced me to eliminate that Dutch unit and probably take Eldorado, too.

Just like I doubt that I could go out on a limb for north New Guinea and the Moluccas. I couldn't stand having all that red and green mixed up...

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Flicker

My OCD would've kicked in and forced me to eliminate that Dutch unit and probably take Eldorado, too.

Just like I doubt that I could go out on a limb for north New Guinea and the Moluccas. I couldn't stand having all that red and green mixed up...

Just think of it like spilling green paint in the middle of a red spot. Eventually, it will spill over.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Flicker

Alfred - I enjoy reading your impressions of CR's game; after all, it was CR, Nemo, and you writing about the game that led to my buying the game.

What would your proposed course of action after Sabang look like? Personally I may have used the land LCUs to take China (if possible given CRs defense). Ceylon or parts of India might have been targets. Nemo would've invaded the US East Coast

Nemo would have made you THINK he was invading the East Coast, then run around picking up all the bases you stripped to defend NYC!!

[Canoerebel]

11/13/43

Big Tent: The herd rolls forward unmolested and is in position to initiate landings tomorrow.

In general, assaults will commence from south to north (east to west on a real map). Three are scheduled for tomorrow: Biak, Noemfoor, and Manikwari.

This next turn is key. I'll find out if John is ready to commit ships to defend and if my intel is on target. If Manik (one of my five major targets) is surprisingly defended, or if John attacks disrupting or damaging my ships, a devolving gum up may be unfolding; but if Manikwari is lightly defended and the initial invasions go well, Big Tent is going to be tough for John to stop.

The other two targets are "minor" and should be undefended. So both get small assault forces. But I can reinforce if necessary. But I don't want to reinforce assaults of dot hexes that should be undefended. I'd rather use the reserves against more toothsome targets later on.

SigInt that 16th Div. is aboard ships bound for Ambon. I have no idea where this TF is, but I hope it's at least three days out. I'd prefer that John not land there. My carriers could be in position to contest landings in three days, though that depends on what happens next. But if tomorrow and the day after go well, then my inclination is to leave behind the troops on the first beaches and move deeper to really disrupt the heart of the target area.

All DDs replenished fuel today. If things are in good shape, all CA and CL will do so tomorrow.

Third Ring troops, ships, and refueling TKs and xAKs are flooding into the Oz area.

I think tomorrow is the key. If John's configured defenses that really mess with me tomorrow this is going to be a tough campaign; if things go well tomorrow, Big Tent is going to deliver.