The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
He can run the carriers at flank from Manus and strike the Biak area on the same day. Beware.

Edit: Assuming 8-hex full speed for him, he can actually reach all the way to Sansapor with an 8-hex strike.

Yeah, he could, but I don't hink he will due to SYS damage. But even if he did it wouldn't have a material effect because nearly all ships are weighing anchor again as the herd will lumber NW to Morotai or SW to Ceram.

I'm not sure which to do yet. I think now I'm leaning just a bit towards Ceram, to take control of that region temporarily. Even if it turns out Ambon is strongly defended, I think Boela may be vacant and I think Namlea is fairly lightly defended. The latter (as another forumite - Cap? - mentioned yesterday offers a level two airfield.

You know your opponent better than I do, but if I were him and I could estimate with reasonable confidence that your CV fleet was heading west and couldn't cover Sansapor and east... if his Sys damage starts out low, like 0 to 3, then running at full speed for a single day will not burn him very badly in terms of additional Sys damage. In most cases - it's possible to get unlucky.

But netting some unprotected ships and the LCUs on them for VPs, potentially, as your herd thins out a bit? I would be sorely tempted, were I in his place.

Still, you said you're lumbering on this turn, so presumably almost everything will be out of range of that potential movement of his for this coming turn... but he can move at 8 hexes a day, while you can only go 4-6 depending on ship type and fuel status. Since he doesn't have much for airfields you're probably fine, but I just wanted to point out that if he decides to go fast with KB on this coming day you only have one day of KB-free movement rather than two.

[Canoerebel]

Oil will not be affected short term, except the little oil production at Babo and Boela. It will take awhile for the Allies to get bases up and running. John will recover from the initial shock and configure new defenses that will slow things down more than I expect.

Medium term, the Allies will pretty much shut down shipping lanes east of Borneo and could be in a position to bomb Balikpapan, Samarinda and Tarakan. That's a fairly decent concern for John.

But the oil from Sumatra and western Borneo won't be effected through the medium term, except via interdiction by subs in the South China Sea.

That's my forecast. I said this a week or so back: Big Tent is not a home run, but it is a triple or a long double in terms of unhing the Japanese position and threating the heartland.

[Canoerebel]

I have a complicating factor in planning for tomorrow.

Recall that Big Tent included some assault troops strategic loaded for efficiency. Well, those are the divisions slated for Ambon and Boela! (The plan was to unload them at Sorong and combat load them for Ceram; I didn't have enough assault shipping and, as noted before, this op is supposed to take a long time; but there's an opportunity now....)

I do have 5th Indian Div. combat loaded for Morotai. And I do have miscellaneous units combat loaded but not with the correct prep. So, if Babo and Boela are undefended and Ambon and Namlea are fairly lightly garrisoned, there is a chance I could take them...but it's hard to measure.

So, do I move to Morotai, which makes it more problematic if KB is coming, or do I move SW knowing I'm not in a position to really assault?

Very interesting dilemma.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I have a complicating factor in planning for tomorrow.

Recall that Big Tent included some assault troops strategic loaded for efficiency. Well, those are the divisions slated for Ambon and Boela! (The plan was to unload them at Sorong and combat load them for Ceram; I didn't have enough assault shipping and, as noted before, this op is supposed to take a long time; but there's an opportunity now....)

I do have 5th Indian Div. combat loaded for Morotai. And I do have miscellaneous units combat loaded but not with the correct prep. So, if Babo and Boela are undefended and Ambon and Namlea are fairly lightly garrisoned, there is a chance I could take them...but it's hard to measure.

So, do I move to Morotai, which makes it more problematic if KB is coming, or do I move SW knowing I'm not in a position to really assault?

Very interesting dilemma.

Send them to Darwin. They are a dangerous liability in transport mode. It would take a week to unload all the vehicles at Sorong. Send the empty AP's down to Darwin to pick them up. They might unload moderately efficiently at Ternate if you got a bunch of naval support ashore but you would have to capture it first.

[Lokasenna]

He'd have to capture Darwin, too. Is it defended?

[Andav]

So, if Babo and Boela are undefended and Ambon and Namlea are fairly lightly garrisoned,

Can you recon these bases with float planes from cruisers or BBs to get some general idea of enemy strength? It might to click intensive to fly over enough bases to keep him guessing but it would at least give you some clue. I might be spoiled to all the Jakes on the Japanese ships.

Wa

[Canoerebel]

Darwin is fairly well defended, so that's out for now.

So Morotai is it, with 5th Indian Div. landing. Three or four dot hexes will also be hit. I'm trying to take all of these for the usual reasons: deny them to John, gain them for what use I might make, and to add to the overall "shock and awe" effect in case that dampens John's enthusiasm for moving into a nest environment (it's not a nest yet, but will be).

I have long-range recon operating out of Normantown and Portland Roads. I'm also using some BB/CA float planes and even the PBYs at Nabire. But coverage has been spotty due to weather. I have good info on Ambon, but thus far none on Babo, Boela, Namlea and Morotai.

I'm playing a hunch that Morotai is vacant or essentially so. There's been no base development, no Sig Int, nor was it included in the periphery of John's "you're going to attack here" message. So no bombardment. The invasion TFs will be accompanied by a DD TF and by a small CA/DD TF, and the carriers will be posted two hexes SE.

As for Ambon, I'm hoping that the Jupiter raid and the proximity of my carriers persuades John that I'm coming so that he reluctantly pulls back his troop transports. It's possible that the SigInt that 2nd Guards is now bound for Soerabaja is a reflection of this. But I will send three Fletchers there. John may load up the airfield with Judys and clobber them, but I think it's a risk worth taking.

Now, what does John do with KB? (1) Sprint: if so, my situation gets very complicated tomorrow; (2) move at regular speed: this will allow me to spend two days at Morotai if needed or to weigh anchor and move towards Ceram; (3) dawdle to cover his own ships: unlikely now that he knows I'm not coming down the New Guinea coastline towards Hollandia/Manus.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

He'd have to capture Darwin, too. Is it defended?

Oh, wow. I thought he owned Darwin. [:)] A port is needed quickly. Ternate is level 3 with an AF, Ditto Davao. Both are vlunerable to the current posotion of the KB.

Perhaps Jolo or Manado or Ambon or Kendari.

Maybe you could land an unprepped amphibious unit at Ambon and still have the strength to take it? take Namlea at the same time.

[JeffroK]

What is JIII's mind like, embarrassed after the Wake debacle and either too cautious (cant let CR ambush me again!!) or out for revenge (ant let CR get away with this!!!!, Banzai!!!)

Which approach do you want him to take and what can you do to encourage him.

Sorong/Morotai is a good central position, you can go South/West/North so JIII will have to cover over 270deg and there are lots of dot bases in this region to defend/target.

[Canoerebel]

Namlea and Ambon are possibilities in a few days if I get good intel that they are weakly defended and if KB isn't breathing down my neck.

But the heart of this op is Sorong. It's port size one, can be built to five, and I already have two Army engineer regiments ashore with two more (strat loaded) to follow. I also have two Navy base forces with 208 combined naval support already ashore (to facilitate with strat unloading and loading).

I think those regiments can build that port pretty fast, though John will contest. So the op is premised on taking lots of bases over a wide area to rattle John, to give him many targets, and to perhaps persuade him to defend in the PI rather than in Ceram or Timor or Merauke, etc.

Very complicated. Many wheels in motion. But it's a good plan and it's off to a great start.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

What is JIII's mind like, embarrassed after the Wake debacle and either too cautious (cant let CR ambush me again!!) or out for revenge (ant let CR get away with this!!!!, Banzai!!!)

Which approach do you want him to take and what can you do to encourage him.

Sorong/Morotai is a good central position, you can go South/West/North so JIII will have to cover over 270deg and there are lots of dot bases in this region to defend/target.

Exactly, Jeff. I think he's both. He's cautious with his carriers 'cause if he loses them there's nothing to stop me from going anywhere on the map at my leisure.

Yet he's chagrined, a bit embarrassed, and probably increasingly desperate as he watches base after base fall to Big Tent.

I need a couple more days to take bases and get a very strong network of PBYs running so that he doesn't sneak up and somehow slip a big combat TF into my ships. That can happen at any moment.

[JohnDillworth]

This is weird but in my experience 2 Fletchers have a lower chance of being detected than 3. I've had 2 Fletcher go a long way into Indian country before they were spotted. Probably makes no difference. Send something and maybe not just there, maybe the other places he might want to reinforce. In any event the Jupiter raid also was a bit of a game changer. Transports will have to now be defended with real warships, something in somewhat short supply (DD & CL's). BTW you are now in tight waters and John is quite good at sending warships in for night time raids. This is CA country and I expect there are going to be some nighttime surface battles. Your ships should be pretty god at night now so watch your TF compositions. Good radar, good night fighting, good skippers

[Canoerebel]

I'll try it your way, John. Thanks.

[JohnDillworth]

Ninjas Dan, you now have Ninjas. an endless supply of Ninjas

[Canoerebel]

Attached map shows orders for the herd.

I nearly scrubbed this twice to instead move to Ceram, but ultimately decided to proceed. There is danger of LBA and enemy combat TFs. It'll be a tense wait for the replay.

John's email comments, force disposition (reinforcing Aitape) and AAR title ("Sumatra 1943") leads me to wonder if he think he has me in a tight spot instead of the other way around. I anticipated that he'd abandon plans to fortify forward and begin to move expeditiously to the rear. I'll know more shortly.

The most interesting thing will be what he does with his carriers tomorrow. That should tell me everything. I don't think he'll use full speed, but I do think he'll send them.

[Cap Mandrake]

On this issue of "gloaming"...I had to go look it up, which hasn't happened in a while. One time I was reading a Ray Bradbury story and he used the word "susurration"

I had to look it up and was slightly annoyed but soon found myself trying to work it in to everyday conversation.."The sink is running. I hear a susurration".

I have a feeling this whole thing is the gloaming of the Empire of Japan.

[Canoerebel]

Sometimes writers have favorite obscure words that they sprinkle into their works. I remember three that Alistair MacLean used occasionally in nearly every book he wrote: threnody, ululating and eldritch. I think all three were used when describing storms and their effects on ships and ship rigging.

One time my business had a college intern (smartest guy I've ever known in Georgia - speaks about 10 languages fluently, including Chinese). He'd never heard of the Bismarck or Pickett's Charge. He had an incredible vocabulary but raised a "that word is too obscure!" objection to my use of "ephemeral." I was shocked. I thought ephemeral was a word that basically everybody knew. Turns out it isn't - that it's a word I picked up in forestry school. It's used to describe an "intermittent" stream that doesn't flow year around, only during wet weather. That creek is said to be "ephemeral." But I typically use it in describing Georgia snowfalls.

Thanks for the story Cap.

[Anachro]

Although I've never heard it used in the way you describe (though it makes sense), ephemeral is a common-enough word. Certainly not an obscure oddity that no one ever uses.

[Canoerebel]

It's probably a word commonly used in many circles (mine included) but not in a typical rural Georgia high school. It's a great word though, no?

[Anachro]

Yes, I love that word. Have often used in in formal writing and essays. Quit beautiful...and philosophical. [:)]