See you in Tokyo Bay - Apbarog(A) vs Walker(J) DBB-B Scen28

[apbarog]

There may be no big reason why KB went to Babeldaop. I'm sure that it will refuel there regardless. I did send recon there today. I want Walker to know that I see it if it is there.

No turn from Walker today. Hopefully tomorrow, then I'll have all weekend to work on the turn, as Walker will be busy.

The plan is still to move on Timor as soon as possible. APAs are 2 days out of Darwin. They will unload supply then load for Lautern. Loading for Dili has already begun at Normanton. I'm really looking forward to the Timor campaign. It won't be quick. Koepang is a fortress with over 30,000 men. I want the eastern tip of the island, and the dot base adjacent to the north. That triangle of bases will have mutual air support, and the airbases can be built to a good size. From Timor, there's a dagger pointed to the heart of the enemy's oil production.

[apbarog]

23 May 43

Walker is unavailable for the weekend, so I watched the replay tonight and will plot the turn over the weekend.

My naval strike to Boela goes very badly. 30 SBDs fly from Babar first, before the sweep or the heavy bombers, and the fighter escort doesn't fly. Most bombers do drop their bombs on a cargo task force, but hit just 2 ships, and they are tiny xAKL. Both ships are sunk. Just about every SBD was shot down by 36 Oscars on CAP.

Next, of course, 17 Corsairs sweep Boela, and do very well. About a dozen Oscars are downed and no Corsairs are lost.

35 B-24s hit Boela's airfield, finding almost no CAP left. Excellent damage to the airfield, a couple of Lilys and about 8 Topsys are destroyed on the ground.

Another B-24 squadron hits, and a couple more Topsys and Lilys are destroyed.

A B-17 squadron hits Boela's port, doing minor damage, but one bomb hits an xAK. It may sink.

Other bombers hit Lautern, Dili, and in the Solomons, Shortlands.

US carriers moved to within range of Koepang, but spotted no shipping, so no strikes occurred. They'll head back to Darwin and wait for the invasion shipping to finish arriving and loading.

Multiple enemy task forces were seen at Babeldaop during the replay, but none are seen at the end of the turn. 75 ships are spotted in port.

The Marines try another attack in the jungle next to Buna, on the coast, and it goes badly, again. I had hoped that, over time, they'd be wearing down the enemy. And with no supply, I expected some progress after attacking and resting and repeating. But it isn't going well. My Marine Division will be tied down here indefinitely.

Ground combat at 99,128 (near Buna)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 14601 troops, 208 guns, 274 vehicles, Assault Value = 379

Defending force 14973 troops, 79 guns, 7 vehicles, Assault Value = 335

Allied adjusted assault: 128

Japanese adjusted defense: 637

Allied assault odds: 1 to 4

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
332 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1173 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 148 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 25 (4 destroyed, 21 disabled)
Vehicles lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)

Assaulting units:
3rd Marine Division
1st Tank Battalion
2/8th Armoured Regiment

Defending units:
9th Division
58th Construction Battalion
87th Naval Guard Unit
19th Army
14th Naval Construction Battalion
2nd Area Army /1

[apbarog]

23 May 43 (continued)

APAs reach Darwin tomorrow, and will start loading for Lautern when emptied of supply. Loading continues at Normanton for Dili. Will take a few days due to port size and the number of task forces loading.

I've started moving more heavy bombers to Fenton, just south of Darwin. The airbase is building, now a size 3, and is in range of all of the targets in Timor.

I did a thorough inspection of all of the Allied bases around the map, and found some units that could be used in offensive operations. Ships are on the way to pick them up and move them closer to the front.

I'm hoping to get a turn from Walker tomorrow.

[apbarog]

No turn from Walker today, but one is expected on Tuesday.

My first P-47 squadron is now filled out with very good pilots. There are no replacement planes yet, so I will be conservative with them. With a recent boost in enemy fighters and bombers at Rabaul and near Rabaul, I think I'll send the P-47s to New Guinea and fly CAP for awhile, hoping to surprise Walker if he gets adventurous here.

[jwolf]

That failed attack in New Guinea is surprising and disappointing as the Japanese have a supply penalty but still seem to have no trouble defending well.

[apbarog]

I haven't expected to "win" the battle by Buna, but with the defenders out of supply, and approximately equal forces, and I have armor, I expect to make some attritional progress. This attack was hampered by the Allies being fatigued. This wasn't expected, as I've been resting for a couple of weeks since attacking last.

I'm weighing options here. One possibility is to just pull out of the hex and be able to use the Marines elsewhere. Maybe bring in a smaller unit to keep the hexside control from Buna. Or not. I don't think the enemy could take Buna or Salamaua with forces out of supply. Walker may want to try to rescue them with a counter-invasion. I have seen a division prepping for Buna. Regardless, this isn't an important area for me any longer. I'll hold here, and maybe make small advanced, like taking Munda in the fairly near future. My primary area of attack is north of Australia now. Everything else is secondary.

[apbarog]

24 May 43

Subchaser E boat Kiji finds S-39 near Kendari, and gets good hits on her. S-39 has FLOT damage in the 70's, and may not make it to Babar.

Also near Kendari, sub Haddo finds a huge task force. 7 PBs, 1 SC, 1 AD, 1AV, 5 TKs, 7 xAKs, 7 xAKLs, 1 DD, and 2 E's. Either an oddly formed resupply task force, or these ships are evacuating Kendari. I think the ships are inbound to Kendari, though. Haddo does get one hit on an xAKL but it is a dud.

Corsairs sweep Boela but find no CAP.

Bombers hit Dili's airfield, doing moderate damage. There is no CAP.

South of Boela, SBDs from Babar find a destroyer and an xAK. Escorts don't fly with the bombers, but no CAP is found. xAK Shofuku Maru is sunk, as is destroyer Hayashio. The xAK did not have troops on it. I'm guessing that it had supply trying to sneak south to Saumlauki. I also spot patrol boats in this area.

The 30th Australian Brigade clears Daly Waters. Remnants of the 14th Garrison Unit are eliminated. This clears the land supply route all the way to Darwin, for all that is worth.

Recon of Babeldaop shows 20 some ships in port, when yesterday there were 77. I get a heavy activity SigInt for something about 4 hexes NNW of Babeldaop. KB going to Japan? I have no idea. Maybe it needs neglected repairs. Or upgrades. All I know is that I don't see KB near Kendari any longer.

US carriers refuel at Darwin and move slightly NE of Darwin today. Invasion loading at Normanton is complete, and ships leave headed north. At Darwin, invasion loading begins. Hornet is approaching Horn Island, on its way to Gove.

P-47s are now based at Buna. I have a feeling that Walker has something going on in the Solomons. There's a noticable increase in aircraft at Rabaul, now 90 fighters, 128 bombers, and 129 other. Adjacent Namatanai has 54 fighters. KB could be headed this way and I just haven't spotted them yet.

With Timor about to get invaded, I can stand a little pain in the Solomons. Getting a foothold on Timor will be a huge step to taking the island and projecting airpower from big airbases. The Solomons is a sideshow.

At the contested hex near Buna, I start to withdraw the Marine Division to Buna. No point in leaving them there if I can't clean up the enemy units there. I'll defend my bases and let the enemy rot with no supply.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

That failed attack in New Guinea is surprising and disappointing as the Japanese have a supply penalty but still seem to have no trouble defending well.

I think the "supply -" will show up if only one of the enemy units is out of supply. The others may have some.

[apbarog]

25 May 43

Sub Rasher spots a cruiser task force SE of Kendari. Destination unknown, and not spotted during daylight.

Near Ternate, already smoking destroyer Usugumo is spotted by Dutch sub O21, and is hit by one torpedo. Reportedly sunk.

Northwest of Babeldaop, sub Pogy spots a carrier task force, with CV Hiyo, BB Hyuga and BB Ise, and a bunch of destroyers. 6 torpedoes are fired at Hiyo. 2 torpedoes hit. One is a dud. No fires or damage is spotted. Always nice to get a hit on a carrier. Hoping that it has to go back to Japan now.

Up in the Aleutians, a destroyer ASW task force finds I-3 and sinks it.

Boela is swept by Corsairs again. No CAP.

B-17s bomb Boela's airfield, doing moderate damage and hitting a few planes on the ground, mostly Topsys.

In the Solomons, P-40Ks from Vangunu sweep Buin, finding lots of Zeros and some Oscars. Losses are even, with 10 planes lost from each side.

A small task force is unloading engineers at Exemouth, on the northwest corner of Australia. Time to build up this base. I'll probably use it as a sub base, as it was used historically.

Most of the ships loading for Lautern leave Darwin today, and will get into position to invade tomorrow. Carriers cover. Fletchers cover. Bombardment task force escorts. Subchasers cover. Airpower at Darwin rests today. A bombardment task force, and a minesweeper, will move further west and get into position for a bombardment of Koepang. Would be risky, considering mines, but I'll probably do it.

Dili invasion shipping is approaching Gove.

Ships head to ports to start loading for an invasion of Dobo.

With the movement of KB near Babeldaop, and with multiple task forces still being in the area to the northwest of the island, it looks like KB did a rendezvous with other task forces. Maybe for fuel, unknown really. If something is up, I should see it in the next few days.

But Timor will be invaded with KB not in the area. Good news.

[jwolf]

I'm puzzled about the Japanese deployments here. For a long time they kept the KB near Timor, presumably to defend it, and now as you say with the KB gone you have a great opportunity to invade there. There must be some really important reason why the KB was moved but I have no idea what it is. At least the KB will be thinned a bit with Hiyo out of action (??) for a little while.

[apbarog]

26 May 43

Only combat activity today was sub Shad spotting a big tanker convoy in the straits east of Balikpapan. Today was the calm before the next storm.

Lautern will be invaded. A small cruiser task force will bombard. DMSs will look for mines. A big Fletcher task force will cover. Subchasers escort.

Enemy troop strength is small. I expect Lautern to fall quickly.

US carriers will set up just to the south and cover the invasion with ranged CAP. Some LR CAP will be provided from Babar.

Battleships are spotted at Kendari today. The recon wasn't great, though, so it could be one of those bad spottings. Cruisers are seen north of Ambon. No enemy carriers are spotted but they could be with the cruisers.

Dili and Lautern's airfields are not operable, but Koepang is, and is a big base, with about 100 fighters today. I decide to risk 2 cruisers and 3 destroyers on a bombardment run to Koepang. A DMS will run into Koepang looking for mines.

During the day, Koepang will be swept by 4 P-38 squadrons, and the airbase will be bombed by as many heavy squadrons that I could fly without overstacking Darwin, Fenton, and Katherine. Mediums will bomb troops at Lautern.

The base hex just northwest of Ambon will be mined tonight.

The division prepping for Dobo will arrive at Darwin today. It will reload for Dobo as soon as possible.

I do think that Walker is planning something in the Solomons. It could be an elaborate fake, but there are a lot of planes at Rabaul. I spot 117 fighters, 149 bombers, and 123 other aircraft there. Something is up. Just striking one of my bases wouldn't accomplish a lot, although the bases, other than Milne Bay, don't have lots of CAP. A counter-landing somewhere could be upcoming. Walker may be just wanting to do something, somewhere.

The Solomons, or southern New Guinea, could be an attempt at cutting the sea lanes to Darwin. It would take a huge effort, with multiple infantry divisions, but that is still possible for the Japanese.

I just don't think it could succeed though.

Who knows, maybe Walker saw something I was doing and thought that Rabaul was threatened. I am doing recon of Umboi Island now.

Regardless, Timor is the focus, and the action is tomorrow. However, Walker will be traveling again, starting Saturday, so turns will be just occasional for the next week. Weeks of buildup with regular turns, and now a big invasion and we just have to wait!

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

The only other question is if he has decided to move out of theater to deliver a blow on Northern New Guinea... it would be hard to race around the south end to spot position to the KB... no updates from you over there but I assume you have lots of LB airframes RAAF / USAAF providing support.

ORIGINAL: jwolf

I'm puzzled about the Japanese deployments here. For a long time they kept the KB near Timor, presumably to defend it, and now as you say with the KB gone you have a great opportunity to invade there. There must be some really important reason why the KB was moved but I have no idea what it is. At least the KB will be thinned a bit with Hiyo out of action (??) for a little while.

I think your staged concise movements in the Timor Sea and north Coast have been managed excellently.

I do not think your opponent is fully aware you intend to make a larger commitment in the region. Each of the supply convoys are managed tightly with 'the correct amount' not overwhelming flotillas. A formidable Carrier Strike Force lurks but it is no allied death star; just something not to mess with. He would know other carriers are out there and coming on line - just not where or when.... and he can only speculate if other CVs are damaged or upgrading as we speculate.

And he hasn't seen any Allied carriers from the Bismark sea in quite a while.

An educated guess ?

I think your opponent is planning a counter blow at i.e. Buna - maybe Lae. SigInt and all those other factors you point too.

If I were in his boots - that is exactly where I would plan a 'rescue turned offensive action'.

You have some 70,000 (how many ?? do we know ??) IJN army units trapped without supply in New Guinea?? They will atrophy into zombie units over time and wont be much use in defending Rabul where he is strong - a valuable valuable prize to save ! Further more he has the LBA at Rabul to cover both the KB and an invasion force

In fact if resupplied those troops on the Ktrail become a significant threat.

He can speculate on your carrier status but it would be very difficult for you to run around the south coast and 'out position him'.

Notice any huge increase in sub activity Soloman Sea ? Increases in air based recon ? detection levels ?

[apbarog]

Good points Macclan5.

I got one bit of SigInt saying that a division was prepping for Buna. As for recon, I did notice increased recon of bases further down the Solomon chain, specifically KiraKira. Rabaul is loaded with planes now, as I said. Walker has to have figured out by now that most of my bases don't have divisions defending any longer. In fact, only Milne Bay has a division, and another is walking back south to Lae now.

So there is an opportunity, if Walker brings enough troops. My guess is Buna also, to try to rescue or make use of his troops that are stranded on New Guinea.

I would fight a battle here mainly in the air. I can bring a lot of airpower here, having many large bases. Worst case scenario is that Walker lands and takes Buna. I have retreat paths. This would isolate my troops to the north, at Salamaua, Lae, and Finschhafen. But not completely. Some supply would flow from Port Moresby, to the north of his troops in the mountains.

I'd welcome an enemy move here. If it doesn't cut off my shipping movement toward Horn Island, it doesn't accomplish much.

And the big show is Timor and beyond. And the Timor landing is "today", whenever I get the next turn back. Walker is traveling this week, so it is unknown when that next turn will arrive.

[jwolf]

And the big show is Timor and beyond.

Granted that, nevertheless Macclan's point about that big trapped IJ army in New Guineau makes sense. It would sure be nice to know that they are irretrievably trapped and cannot ever be saved to fight again another day in some more important theater.

But I admit I'm anxious to see the landings at Timor, too. [:)] Good luck.

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: apbarog

I got one bit of SigInt saying that a division was prepping for Buna. As for recon, I did notice increased recon of bases further down the Solomon chain, specifically KiraKira. ....

I would fight a battle here mainly in the air. I can bring a lot of airpower here, having many large bases. Worst case scenario is that Walker lands and takes Buna. I have retreat paths. This would isolate my troops to the north, at Salamaua, Lae, and Finschhafen. But not completely. Some supply would flow from Port Moresby, to the north of his troops in the mountains.

I'd welcome an enemy move here. If it doesn't cut off my shipping movement toward Horn Island, it doesn't accomplish much.

Yep I think we may be on to his plan [8D]

Its pure speculation on my part - but its what I would do to counter punch.

1) A Buna Invasion with 50K plus in supply would reenergize those cut off troops.

2) Buna with a good airstip would threaten you SLOC from Townsville / Charters Towers north !

3) The KB and LBA in Rabul are going to give you grief / Rabul LCUs can be re-purposed to punch you at Munda or even Noumea and try to cut off your SLOC and make you back pedal.

4) The BBS and CAs will try to manage Timor with 'fast nightly bombardment runs' to minimize their exposure to your Air strikes and disrupt supply.

--

You mentioned CV / CV Essex coming on line/ CVE's in and around Sydney.

Unless you have other plans I would be tempted to form another CV Task Force to threaten the Cargo Ships from Buna to Rabul; somewhere west of Port Moesby about 6 hexes from Buna and further protected by LBA Cap from Port M.

...and beef up your LBA all around the Soloman Sea. Consolidate positions etc etc

--

Anyway its still spec on my part.

Good Luck with Timor!

[apbarog]

27 May 43

Destroyers Craven, Gridley, and McCall speed into Kavieng looking for trouble. The destroyers were unseen on their approach, setting up to the ESE of Kavieng.

First they run into 2 subchasers, and sink both without being hit. The fight started at 2000 yards, with low visibility due to rain. Then, still at night, a small cargo task force is found. 3 patrol boats and 2 xAKs try to raise anchor and flee. An xAK and a PB each take a torpedo and many shell hits, and sink. The remaining xAK takes 7 five inch gun hits and is left burning. Another PB is sunk, while the other PB is hit just once. The ships were not loaded with troops.

The 3 US destroyers exit the area to the ESE, and are not spotted during the daylight. They did not take a single gun hit.

But that's not the main event for the day. Lautem, on the eastern tip of Timor, is invaded. 2 cruisers bombard the base and enemy troops. 2 DMS sweep a newly laid sub minefield. DMS Hamilton removes one mine by contact, and sinks.

South of Timor, I-169 finds a carrier task force, and fires 4 torpedoes at CA New Orleans, getting one torpedo hit. I'm fortunate that the cruiser detaches immediately and heads toward Darwin, finishing the day just 2 hexes from base. Moderate damage will require time in a shipyard, but the ship will survive.

RO-106 also finds a carrier task force, in the shallows on the south side of Timor. The sub takes a bunch of minor damage hits, and no direct hits. Very lucky for a sub in the shallows.

I did a maximum air effort at Koepang. CAP was very heavy, with 74 Oscars and 43 Tonys at start.

First a squadron of P-38s sweep, and take the worst of it. Then a bunch of fragmented bomber strikes occur. Damage is not great but some fighters are downed.

Another P-38 squadron sweeps, and benefits from the bomber sweeps. Then another P-38 group sweeps.

Total air losses for the day are 21 Oscars and 11 Tonys, versus 17 P-38s, 6 B-17s, and 3 B-24s. Somewhat costly but for a necessary mission. Koepang's airfield now shows 20 damage, and 30 some fighters. I sweep and strike again, but with limited numbers of aircraft today. A DMS did run into Koepang last night, and didn't find mines. I screwed up my bombardment of Koepang, and didn't order it. My cruisers stayed in place, and will bombard the base today instead.

Invasion shipping didn't get to Lautem during the night, but I'm very happy with how the APAs performed. The vast majority of the 18th British Division was unloaded. I created a new task force of APAs today, ones that should unload completely at night. These ships should leave the area by daylight. Other ships will still be unloading.

US carriers move slightly east to continue covering the landings. Troops will attack today, and should take the base. Invasion shipping for Wetar and Dili head north to be near the carriers.

I'm not sure if I will invade Dili directly or unload everything at Lautem and avoid the disruption. There is a trail between the bases, so movement wouldn't take too long. I'll decide tomorrow. Recon shows about a division's worth of troops at Dili, so it will be a tougher fight. Koepang, by the way, shows over 30,000 men.

[jwolf]

Nice raid at Kavieng, and looks like a good start at Timor although with some losses. Do you have any more intel or some sense of what the Japanese want to do in the Solomons area?

[apbarog]

No further SigInt on enemy forces in the Solomons. Just lots of planes at Rabaul.

I noticed that I kept referring to the eastern base of Timor as "Lautern" when it is actually "Lautem". My old eyes have been failing me!

[BBfanboy]

I have the same problem but wasn't sure which was correct so I made no comment. Kept forgetting to look it up on Google Earth too!

[jwolf]

[X(]!! I seriously had thought it really was Lautern all the time! Oops! [:o]