The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Yeah. I mentioned a few pages back that Alistair MacLean always used "ululating," "threnody" and "eldritch" when describing storms at sea.

But you and Cap Mandrake are correct in point out that it also describes the sorrow (or glee, in the case of misfortune of their enemies) by Islamic women.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah. I mentioned a few pages back that Alistair MacLean always used "ululating," "threnody" and "eldritch" when describing storms at sea.

But you and Cap Mandrake are correct in point out that it also describes the sorrow (or glee, in the case of misfortune of their enemies) by Islamic women.

Right! Their version of "Banzai!" [:D]

[Canoerebel]

11/18/43

Big Tent: A productive fifth day, but John deploys KB forward. That's the move that disrupts me the most, so I think it's his best move.

Allied ASW sank an RO-boat at Sorong. That airfield goes to level one and gets Corsairs and Lightning from Oz. A big step forward. USN DDs replenish torps at the level one port solely because of naval support. That's a good development.

Boela auto-flips to the Allies. It has a good garrison now and can stand for awhile on its own if need be. John loses 25 oil production here.

Landings at Babo show the base very weakly held by a cadre of IJA 16th Div. Allies land about 60 AV, s this important base should fall soon. This base has 20 oil production, I think.

USN DDs mess up a large troop TF near Saumlauki, destroying 50 squads and 30 guns/vehicles. At this point I don't see any other troop transports near or heading towards bases I hope to take.

John doesn't yet have a naval present in the Ceram area. I'm sure he's working on that.

Allied 4EB and 2EB work over Horn Island and PM. The latter has 50 Franks on LRCAP from Lae, etc.

SigInt again shows lots going on here and yonder. An IJ regiment is inbound to very weakly defended Biak. John really seems to want that. I don't want to lose it, but won't risk ships in proximity to KB. If he fixates on Biak a turn or two then it's paid a handsome dividend.

Third Ring: Judys sortie from Tagula (near Milne) and sink to RN DDs that were feeling out defenses too efficiently.

Marhsalls: BB Washington is going to make her break for Pearl. She can make 8 knots. Recon shows Kwaj and Roi empty of strike aircraft (Big Tent serving as a vortex). Good DDs are embedded with Washington and leading her also.

[Canoerebel]

Thus far Big Tent has taken four major targets (all but Ambon), 11 minor targets, and has just landed at two more minor targets (though Babo is really pretty important). Tomorrow should four more landings - three of these bases (Dabo, Taberfane and Kai) really are significant. The fourth, Kaimana on the south side of New Guinea near Babo, can be important.

John is going to counter-invade in the vacuum I've left behind. He'll take Biak and probably take others. He'll bombard and bomb. But the key question is this: can he take control of the AAO before the herd can replenish, either at a base in the AOO or at Normanton? I don't think he can.

But I am out of amphibious troops after tomorrow's assaults. So I'm going to have to unload amphibious troops somewhere and then reload if I wish to move on Ambon, Namlea, Merauke, etc. The herd has three divisions strat loaded. There are also at many troops waiting in Normanton, Portland Roads, etc.

[Cap Mandrake]

Did you not bring some paras?

For undefended bases you can use the remnant attack method. Load up 1 or two LSI's with 100 troops.

[Canoerebel]

No paras. They all got marooned in the Marshalls. I do have some in Oz.

I will use LCIs and LSTs as soon as KB backs off or as soon as I have the airfields/replenished CV fighters to protect.

If KB loiters or moves in, I'll keep pulling back to Oz to replenish. If KB backs off and there's a shot to replenish at Boela, I'll do it and then invade Ambon and Namlea.

The carriers are only 28 hexes from Normanton, Oz, now, so it's pretty darned close.

[Lokasenna]

This thread got pretty purple for a while...

[JeffroK]

Is there any space for a Squadron or 2 of C-47's at your major base??

They can provide lift for reinforcing flights into your newly built airbases.

[Canoerebel]

Sorong is the only base in the AAO with an airfield. It just went to level one today. So no ability to fly transport missions nor anywhere to fly them to. Yet.

[JohnDillworth]

keep your eyes peeled for surface raiders. John loves to throw nighttime combat task forces in. nice to know here the KB is but it would also be nice to know where his CA's and BB's are (we know where his CL's are, sunk).

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Sorong is the only base in the AAO with an airfield. It just went to level one today. So no ability to fly transport missions nor anywhere to fly them to. Yet.

Just keep in mind, in case you don't already pay attention to these things, that you can only do "combat drops" out to the normal range of the aircraft - but that you can do troop transport missions out to half of the range of the aircraft (so 15 for DC-3/C-47, and much farther for C-87, etc.). This is why I keep looking back at Gove and Merauke - absolutely crucial in order to easily leverage your transport aircraft. It sounds like this is already in your plans.

Of course, PA-type planes will do in a pinch.

[Canoerebel]

11/19/43

Big Tent: A good day as Allied landings at Dobo, Taberfane and Kaimana are unopposed. The latter two will fall tomorrow. Dobo has 2k enemy troops - probably a division fragment. I have most of a Canadian brigade that will rest a few days. Most importantly, John can't build these bases to create a blocking position directly on my route of egress.

KB is posted up near Biak, I think to control that area. His LBA - lots of Franks - swept Sorong and handled the small CAP there. So I think John is mainly focused defensively - or counteroffensively - and doesn't mean to seek a carrier battle short term.

But Death Star will suddenly change direction tomorrow and return to the Ceram Sea. This may catch him by surprise. If he moves KB that way, a carrier battle occurs although neither side was actively looking for one yet.

For me, it's either return (having secured my egress route) and reassert my "you'll have to come and root me out) position" or I have to retire to Normanton to replenish. Those were really my two options. Dawdlings around Taberfane or vicinity, indecisive in no-man's-land, wasn't a good option, to my way of thinking.

Third Ring: Allied bombing missions have closed Horn Island and have roughed up PM's airfield. All troops are in position. Fighters are making the hops to Big Tent. P47s don't have legs to reach Sorong, so a squadron flew to Manikwari today. That field just went to level one.

Bearded Lady: Way over in the Marshalls, Washington made a good exit from Maloelap today, en route to Pearl for repairs. Subs will be a concern, but after tomorrow planes should be out of range. I think the Big Tent vortex is sucking in all of John's assets (mine too). The Marshalls no longer feel like the front lines.

[Canoerebel]

John's email message with last turn: "I am pretty certain you are done with prepped targets now. Better be careful..."

Thus far during Big Tent he's sent messages to the following effect:

1. "I told my AAR readers that I needed until November 1" (suggesting as the op rolled west from Pearl Harbor that I given him enough time after the Naval Battle of Wake Island to refresh his navy).
2. "You better not come to the Marianas or Truk BABY!"
3. "I told my AAR readers that you'd be coming for Biak and vicinity..."
4. "...Better be careful..."

I want to ask, but won't:

1. Did your foresight extend to Morotai, Boela, Babo, Taberfane, and Dobo?
2. Why was this region undefended and unprepared? Is it because you kept sending your entire military to the latest hotspots (the "send everything to the center of the map and have an all-out fight" gambit) like Sumatra, the Aleutians and the Marshalls, choosing solely to focus on near term while completely ignoring the medium and long term.

John prevailed in the Sumatra campaign, but at consequences like this.

[crsutton]

Nice back door job. More bases snapped up that I would have thought possible. I don't think you need any more. Allies don't need everything to dominate an area. He can't build bases as fast as you can. That is the key now.

[AcePylut]

I see three outcomes for a CV Clash:
1) You “get the die rolls” and wipe out the rest of his CV’s. What happens then – will John have the will to fight on to the bitter end?
2) You don’t “get the die rolls” and lose badly – if this happens, the whole OP could be put in jeopardy as you’ve lost control of the sloc.
3) You split the battle, which makes the next few months interesting as you are both going to struggle for control of the supply lanes.

I think honestly, the best possible outcome for you would be #3 – as that way, the fight is back to a slugfest. If 1 happens, not sure if the match will last much longer. If 2 happens… it’s banzai time.

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John prevailed in the Sumatra campaign, but at consequences like this.

I think you are reading too much into the effects of Sumatra. That was a real victory for him; it had no bearing on the situation now.

[Canoerebel]

Ross (crsutton, for those who don't know the Birkestock wearing dude from the Old Line State), I agree. The Allies don't need everything. With a few exceptions the expansion era of Big Tent is finished. The exceptions are Namlea and Ambon, which I'd like to take for the aifields and to give myself broad enough shoulders that John has real difficulty penetrating into my "heartland," which is the Ceram Sea (Ceram to Sorong and Manikwari).

Third Ring is ready to go. It includes many support troops for Big Tent venues - base forces, engineers and AAs for islands like Taberfane, Dobo, Kai-Ellenden, etc. These islands weren't part of the original Big Tent, but were added when it became clear John was trying to garrison them strongly. I had extra troops amphibious loaded, fortunately. These were the troops I decided not to use against Wolei, plus troops bound for places like Vanimo and Hansa Bay, which are no longer targets through the short term and probably into the medium term.

Third Ring is also tasked with securing the balance of the LOC between Big Tent and Oz: Merauke, Horn Island, Port Moresby being the major targets.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

I see three outcomes for a CV Clash:
1) You “get the die rolls” and wipe out the rest of his CV’s. What happens then – will John have the will to fight on to the bitter end?
2) You don’t “get the die rolls” and lose badly – if this happens, the whole OP could be put in jeopardy as you’ve lost control of the sloc.
3) You split the battle, which makes the next few months interesting as you are both going to struggle for control of the supply lanes.

I think honestly, the best possible outcome for you would be #3 – as that way, the fight is back to a slugfest. If 1 happens, not sure if the match will last much longer. If 2 happens… it’s banzai time.

Option 1 is to be avoided. You don't want the war to be over when everything is going so well.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Anachro
I think you are reading too much into the effects of Sumatra. That was a real victory for him; it had no bearing on the situation now.

Sumatra was a huge victory for John and it was a huge defeat for him. It was a huge defeat for me and a huge victory for me.

What happened in Sumatra has had a direct effect on everything that's happened since then, mostly because John had tunnel vision. He focused way too much on near-term objectives, thus forgetting to attend to potential longterm objectives. His tunnel vision on Sumatra cost him the Aleutians. His tunnel vision on Sumatra and NoPac cost him the Marshalls. His tunnel vision on the Marshalls and Marianas cost him the Big Tent region (at least to this point). He keeps getting whipsawed from one energency to the next, from one region to another. He focuses totally on the emergency at hand forgetting to do his house chores in other regions. And the emergencies commenced with Sumatra and have never stopped.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John's email message with last turn: "I am pretty certain you are done with prepped targets now. Better be careful..."

Thus far during Big Tent he's sent messages to the following effect:

1. "I told my AAR readers that I needed until November 1" (suggesting as the op rolled west from Pearl Harbor that I given him enough time after the Naval Battle of Wake Island to refresh his navy).
2. "You better not come to the Marianas or Truk BABY!"
3. "I told my AAR readers that you'd be coming for Biak and vicinity..."
4. "...Better be careful..."

I want to ask, but won't:

1. Did your foresight extend to Morotai, Boela, Babo, Taberfane, and Dobo?
2. Why was this region undefended and unprepared? Is it because you kept sending your entire military to the latest hotspots (the "send everything to the center of the map and have an all-out fight" gambit) like Sumatra, the Aleutians and the Marshalls, choosing solely to focus on near term while completely ignoring the medium and long term.

John prevailed in the Sumatra campaign, but at consequences like this.

I know taunting isn't your style, but maybe something along the lines of ...

"So what am I supposed to be careful of again?"

"Take em back, BABY! Go ahead, make my DAY!"

"Nice to see SIGINT about your eight divisions on boats roaming the Pacific looking for a place to land. Send em this way please!"

"I bet the Marianas and Truk are crowded and hot this time of year. Looks like the beaches in Sorong are empty, and the water is nice! Bring the KB. Come for a swim!"

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Anachro
I think you are reading too much into the effects of Sumatra. That was a real victory for him; it had no bearing on the situation now.

Sumatra was a huge victory for John and it was a huge defeat for him. It was a huge defeat for me and a huge victory for me.

What happened in Sumatra has had a direct effect on everything that's happeend since then, mostly because John had tunnel vision. He focused way too much on near-term objectives, thus forgetting to attend to potential longterm objectives. His tunnel vision on Sumatra cost him the Aleutians. His tunnel vision on Sumatra and NoPac cost him the Marshalls. His tunnel vision on the Marshalls and Marians cost him the Big Tent region (at least to this point). He kept getting whip-sawed from one region to another. He focused totally on the emergency at hand forgetting to do his house chores. And the emergencies commenced with Sumatra and have never stopped coming.

You're killing him now because he didn't modify his play AFTER Sumatra to shift to defense. He could have, but didn't.

Sumatra was not effective, it was a massive defeat for the Allies. John's play after that has been misguided to say the least and yours has been stellar, but these results are not because of Sumatra. They are in spite of Sumatra. This doesn't take away from anything you've done since, but that is since. Wars hinge on a few changes in strategy and tactics. You've adapted and your opponent has not.