Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Operation Pencil[/font]
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Critical day tomorrow...I don´t expect too much Japanese resistance but surely he will do something. D day -2. I really have too little CV support but a huge Surface fleet. I´m hoping it can make up for the lack of airpower.

[paullus99]

This is going to be very interesting - I hope this is part of a larger move against Malaya / Sabang / etc.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

This is going to be very interesting - I hope this is part of a larger move against Malaya / Sabang / etc.

Its just the first phase. Don´t worry. Didn´t have enough lift to do both at the same time. [:)]

[paullus99]

I am so looking forward to what happens next.....

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Rabaul[/font]
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Somewhat of a milestone in the war the first recon flight returns with intel from the Japanese stronghold in SOPAC. As expected there is very little here. I expect most of SOPAC to be more or less empty.

If Jeff doesn´t make AV soon he will be in big problems. Although I´m not sure he can make AV even if he manages to capture SD and the troop VPs from Chungking.

VP ratio is hovering around 3,1:1 as it has been for the last year or so. If allied VPs freeze at the current level he needs 10051 VPs for AV.

I don´t think that is possible.

[JocMeister]

Turn off to Jeff.

Lets see what happens. Mostly worried about Pencil tbh.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Invasion Day 8[/font]
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Anyone curious how P47s do when available in 1/43?

Morning Air attack on Santa Ana , at 226,76

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 30 NM, estimated altitude 29,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 29
E13A1 Jake x 1
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 4
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 30

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
E13A1 Jake: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 5 destroyed

No Allied losses

Morning Air attack on Santa Ana , at 226,76

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 30 NM, estimated altitude 27,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 20
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 2
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 16

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 5 destroyed
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

Morning Air attack on Santa Ana , at 226,76

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 12 NM, estimated altitude 27,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 7
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 6

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

[paradigmblue]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"]Invasion Day 8[/font]
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Anyone curious how P47s do when available in 1/43?

Morning Air attack on Santa Ana , at 226,76

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 30 NM, estimated altitude 29,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 29
E13A1 Jake x 1
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 4
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 30

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
E13A1 Jake: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 5 destroyed

No Allied losses

Morning Air attack on Santa Ana , at 226,76

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 30 NM, estimated altitude 27,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 20
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 2
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 16

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 5 destroyed
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

Morning Air attack on Santa Ana , at 226,76

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 12 NM, estimated altitude 27,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 7
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 6

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

oh shit

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Battle of LA.[/font]
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Not stellar. But not too bad either. I just need to keep grinding! Looking at earlier attacks I either got a bad roll on this attack or the previous two was good ones.

Hoping the former....

Ground combat at Los Angeles (225,76)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 62571 troops, 1189 guns, 2894 vehicles, Assault Value = 3814

Defending force 36412 troops, 450 guns, 576 vehicles, Assault Value = 1003

Allied adjusted assault: 1416

Japanese adjusted defense: 2409

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2341 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 130 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 28 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 23 disabled
Guns lost 52 (7 destroyed, 45 disabled)
Vehicles lost 31 (5 destroyed, 26 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1975 casualties reported
Squads: 23 destroyed, 150 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 67 disabled
Engineers: 13 destroyed, 34 disabled
Guns lost 116 (3 destroyed, 113 disabled)
Vehicles lost 119 (17 destroyed, 102 disabled)

Assaulting units:
4th Motorized Division
2nd Armored Division
41st Infantry Division
8th Motorized Division
5th Armoured Division
13th Armoured Division
6th Armoured Division
7th Motorized Division
LA Harbor Defense
40th Infantry Division
641st Towed Tank Destroyer Battalion
3rd Marine Division
Provisional Tank Brigade
503rd Coast AA Regiment
183rd Field Artillery Battalion
352nd Construction Regiment
Los Angeles USN Base Force
204th Coast AA Regiment
165th Field Artillery Battalion
I US Corps
214th Coast AA Regiment
37th US Naval Construction Battalion
19th Base Maint Engineer Battalion
511th Coast AA Regiment
603rd Coast AA Regiment
24th MAG
188th Field Artillery Battalion
21st US Naval Construction Battalion
II USA Corps

Defending units:
1st Division
9th Division
2nd Tank Division
2nd Air Defense AA Regiment
22nd Fld AA Gun Co
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
3rd Air Defense AA Regiment
15th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Pencil[/font]
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No attacks on any of the TFs. Happy days! [:)]

[IJV]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"]Battle of LA.[/font]
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Not stellar. But not too bad either. I just need to keep grinding! Looking at earlier attacks I either got a bad roll on this attack or the previous two was good ones.

Hoping the former....

- Yeah, it'll be important to keep at it even if outcomes aren't ideal just in that if you leave the Japanese alone they'll start to accumulate (per-unit) forts - forts alone you can probably deal with at present numbers, crap terrain alone you can probably deal with at present numbers...both, and it starts to get a bit more questionable!

I do have some armchair strategist questions for you:

- Your guys ought to recover disablements more effectively than the Japanese; that said, what sort of an available reserve force do you have beyond the stuff that's at LA right now? Is your ability to swap out used-up infantry divisions etc limited, or do you have a pool of units you can cycle through? I imagine you'll continue to see Japanese trickling in to LA, so I feel like you should be planning to fight at at least current odds on the ground in the short term...

- Do you have an estimate of the total size of the force landed by the Japanese? X many divisions, Y many artillery regiments etc;

- Following on from that, do you have an estimate of the total shipping the Japanese have committed to this? 100, 250, 500 merchants? Keeping a large force in combat will require a fair amount of supply; I hope your artillery (at least at LA) will keep busy on any 'off' days; depending on how generously supplied they are, this might be a race to see who can beat each other's army up first, or it might be a race of your supplies at San Diego against the Japanese supplies period...

- Following on from that - do you have any mobile coastal artillery on the West Coast? Thinking ahead a step or two here; given you have an opportunity to zap some merchants, you will probably continue to have difficulty getting naval attack aircraft to function without severe losses (just in that that seems to be the way things always go...), but you should, I suppose, end up with a situation where the Japanese are forced to either land in or evacuate from a hex with your troops in it; I'd probably make sure that any advance out of LA has at least some coast guns (if you have any free)...

- Do you have any sort of naval force at Panama? How tight is the blockade around LA/SD etc? (I mean - as far as you know)

e: where do you have the West Coast army HQ? Is it in range of the LA/etc battle area? Might be a useful quick boost to effectiveness there if it's not...

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: IJV
I do have some armchair strategist questions for you:

- Your guys ought to recover disablements more effectively than the Japanese; that said, what sort of an available reserve force do you have beyond the stuff that's at LA right now? Is your ability to swap out used-up infantry divisions etc limited, or do you have a pool of units you can cycle through? I imagine you'll continue to see Japanese trickling in to LA, so I feel like you should be planning to fight at at least current odds on the ground in the short term...

I have 4 divisions ready in reserve. 3 up north (Seattle, Portland and Tacoma). 1 at SF. If needed I will cycle troops out from LA and let the reserve divisions take their place.

ORIGINAL: IJV
- Do you have an estimate of the total size of the force landed by the Japanese? X many divisions, Y many artillery regiments etc;

Going a bit by memory here I think Jeff had 12 divisions prepping for targets in the North. Some of them have been seen in this OP so I think its safe to assume most if not all of them are on the WC right now.

ORIGINAL: IJV
- Following on from that, do you have an estimate of the total shipping the Japanese have committed to this? 100, 250, 500 merchants? Keeping a large force in combat will require a fair amount of supply; I hope your artillery (at least at LA) will keep busy on any 'off' days; depending on how generously supplied they are, this might be a race to see who can beat each other's army up first, or it might be a race of your supplies at San Diego against the Japanese supplies period...

I have absolutely no idea tbh. [:)] But its a large chunk of the merchant fleet. Then again Japanese IDs are a lot lighter then US/USMC ones so it might be less then I think. But I bet he is burning through hell of a lot of fuel! There are a lot of ships moving around.

Not too worried about supplies at SD tbh. I think this will be decided long before it will run out. Jeff can´t afford a stalemate here. Even if he starts loading troops today it will be months before they will be in position in the DEI, SOPAC and Burma. I might be a bit cocky here but I think he will attack SD once. See the forts and then start packing up.

ORIGINAL: IJV
- Following on from that - do you have any mobile coastal artillery on the West Coast? Thinking ahead a step or two here; given you have an opportunity to zap some merchants, you will probably continue to have difficulty getting naval attack aircraft to function without severe losses (just in that that seems to be the way things always go...), but you should, I suppose, end up with a situation where the Japanese are forced to either land in or evacuate from a hex with your troops in it; I'd probably make sure that any advance out of LA has at least some coast guns (if you have any free)...

- Do you have any sort of naval force at Panama? How tight is the blockade around LA/SD etc? (I mean - as far as you know)

e: where do you have the West Coast army HQ? Is it in range of the LA/etc battle area? Might be a useful quick boost to effectiveness there if it's not...

I have some CD guns available. 2 USMC defense battalions, 1 US CD battalion and a big US CD regiment. The former two were held up at a paradrop but are unloading in LA now. They won´t hit anything but they will absorb a lot of the bombardments.

I have a lot of stuff at Panama including some slow BBs. But I´m not going to send anything towards the WC. I would say 80% of the IJN is there including KB and MKB. No point in throwing VPs at him. [:)]

WC HQ and NORPAC HQ are both at Bakersfield I think. They are prepping for LA and SD. Corps HQ are prepping too but I will have to fly one in to SD for it to have effect. Range is only 1 or 3 if I remember correctly.

[Capt. Harlock]

Anyone curious how P47s do when available in 1/43?

Why, yes -- yes I am!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Vacation[/font]
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I´ll be leaving town for at least a week starting Saturday night. Have a fun 450km drive alone with 2 kids in the car. Figured it was better to go during the night so they will sleep. And with no traffic I can usually do the trip in 3,5-4 hours.

I´m hoping we can squeeze two turn in before I leave but its up to Jeff. I still havn´t gotten the turn file from last turn. I fear Jeff is suffering a bit of AE burnout as pace have slowed to a crawl lately. I think a week rest will do him good.

If we can get two turns in I hope at least I´ll be able to see the start of Pencil.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Pencil[/font]
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Pencil will be divided into 2 parts. First we will land at Port Blair and Little Andaman. BFs and engineers will go with the first wave. I hope to establish an airbase very quickly. I have a small 2nd wave on more BFs and engineers that are unprepped for any target. These will either be landed at PB or Little Andaman.

2nd part will see the invasion of the lower parts of the Andamans. Japanese resistance on the ground is expected to be minimal. There are Japanese surface assets in the area. Or at least were 2 months back where both CAs and BBs where spotted outside Chittagong.

The Allies have brought overwhelming force though including 8 BBs, 6 CAs, 8 CLs and 30+ DDs. What worried me are air strikes and subs. Until I can get LBA up at Port Blair we will be quite vulnerable. Port Blair will be bombarded next turn though and hopefully the airfield will be closed. That means 11-13 hexes from Rangoon. A long trip even for Nells/Betties.

I have intentionally taken a big risk here by leaving my merchants pretty much unprotected. Instead of embedding ASW/SCTFs we have several roaming ASW TFs and SCTFs instead. All with react "1". I hope radar and nights search will pick any approaching ships up and the SCTF will react into them before they can reach the merchants. We shall see how that works out.

I´ll also be putting some smaller CL/DD forces between Japanese LBA and the Andamans. I hope they will draw any strikes away from merchants, CVs and BBs.

As can be seen in the screen below I´m going in extremely heavy compared to the defenses. But I started prepping for this long before SIGINT started pointing towards a Japanese WC invasion. This was to be THE Allied OP of 42. Japanese invasion of India put that temporarily on hold. But now its time to go.

I have personally always felt that the importance of the Andamans are underestimated. Allied presence here puts a tremendous amount of pressure both on Burma but also on Sumatra, Thailand and Malaysia. Jeff now has a very, very long coast to guard. With bad infrastructure and good defensive terrain...

This is just the 1st part with lower quality troops. The 2nd part (Pencil II) will follow. As I said Jeff now has a lot of ground to cover with the few troops he has available stuck in the jungle in Northern Burma.

To sum things up. Jeff is in big doodoo. And it will get a lot worse in about a month.

[Cap Mandrake]

Oh, man, the P-47 alone is why nobody is ever going to try this again.[:)]

[Lokasenna]

Why land full divisions on the dot bases with so much Japanese stuff elsewhere?

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Oh, man, the P-47 alone is why nobody is ever going to try this again.[:)]

I expect an enterprising Japanese player will do a cost benefit analysis of a mid-1942 invasion of L.A. and S.D. before the forts can be built to Lvl 9. The decision to invade will be whether the permanent cost in VP from the sacrificial LCUs is worth the benefits of destroying aircraft factories and shipbuilding at those locations. They produce much of the top end fighters and nearly all search planes. Destruction of either would be a massive change in the airwar since the U.S. economy has no way to reallocate its priorities or capacities.

S.D. isn't so critical as a shipbuilding site, but L.A. would be problematic since a large number of APA, LSD and other specialty shipping is built there.

If successful the Japanese have plenty of time to rebuild the LCUs lost before the Allies can take advantage of any shortage of LCUs available for the defense.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Why land full divisions on the dot bases with so much Japanese stuff elsewhere?

I,m actually just going to land 1/3rd of divisions at everything beside PB and LA. Only 1 BDE will land at Great Nicobar.

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Why land full divisions on the dot bases with so much Japanese stuff elsewhere?

It does seem an inefficient use of shipping, but it will certainly discourage any counter-invasions. Seeing how little the Allies have elsewhere, their entire naval power must be in the theater. Might as well use it when you know the Japanese are elsewhere, and won't be coming anytime soon.

I kind of wish Jocke would have been slightly more aggressive and used regiments for the lesser targets then followed up with an invasion of Moulmein using the freed up divisions. Control of Moulmein allows the isolation of Burma, and Moulmein is an excellent defensive position.