Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Rio Bravo

Joc-

*clapping hands and motioning out the dancing girls*

Regarding Auto Victory, great job putting the Allies in a position to fight the war to the bitter end.

Best Regards,

-Terry

Thank you Terry. [:)]

This is my first game against a SCEN 2 Japan and I have done better then I expected. Its an unorthodox opening though that hasn´t been tried before. With some Japanese fine tuning it can possibly be turned into something really, really dangerous.

Not the path I would chose as Japan though.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Surface battle![/font]
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I got the replay back within a few hours. Almost lazily ran it not expecting much...[X(]

JACKPOT!

Night Time Surface Combat, near San Francisco at 209,89, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 11 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CVL Ryujo
CVL Shoho, Shell hits 1
CVL Zuiho, Shell hits 43, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
CVL Ryuho, Shell hits 13, heavy fires
CVE Hosho, Shell hits 11, on fire
CA Chikuma
DD Mutsuki, Shell hits 3
DD Mikazuki
DD Kamikaze
DD Hatakaze, Shell hits 13, heavy fires

Allied Ships
CL Richmond
CL Raleigh
CL Detroit, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Strong
DD McCalla, Shell hits 1
DD Phelps, Shell hits 1
DD Farragut
DD Aylwin
DD Litchfield, Shell hits 1

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Sub attack![/font]
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I guess this would have been a little bit too much to ask after the opening...

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Surface battle![/font]
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Daybreak see another attack by the Allied CL force! This time though the Chikuma and escorts do a better job of screening the baby carriers. Still some good hits were landed!

Day Time Surface Combat, near San Francisco at 210,88, Range 7,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CVL Ryujo
CVL Shoho, Shell hits 10, heavy fires
CVL Ryuho, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
CVE Hosho, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CA Chikuma, Shell hits 7, on fire
DD Mutsuki, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Mikazuki
DD Kamikaze, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
CL Richmond, Shell hits 3, on fire
CL Raleigh, Shell hits 3, on fire
CL Detroit, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Strong, Shell hits 1
DD McCalla
DD Phelps, Shell hits 1
DD Farragut
DD Aylwin, Shell hits 1
DD Litchfield, Shell hits 2, on fire

Detroit took several 20cm hits and looks in very bad shape.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Sub attack![/font]
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[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]LA[/font]
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An allied bombardment here. Mostly to burn supply...Several Japanese divisions look really beat up.

[poodlebrain]

I know its often futile to hope for Japanese pools to run out but he has lost 343 planes during the last 6 days.

You will never exhaust Japanese pools against competent opposition. However, you can, and should, wreck every fighter unit, and benefit from the limitations on their ability to take replacements. Japan either has to fly depleted units, and those units will have high pilot fatigue and low morale, or concede air space. Since concession is to admit, and permit, defeat you can expect the Japanese to contest most air spaces, and this will ensure very few Japanese pilots will survive to gain high experience and skill levels as they will be in constant use flying from degraded units. Meanwhile, your pilots will be getting huge bumps in skills and experience which will just make the situation worse for the Japanese as the game progresses. Applying constant pressure will break the Japanese air forces, but it won't eliminate them. Quantitatively, the reduction will be limited to the replacement rate for aircraft, but qualitatively the reduction in effectiveness is where you will benefit most.

[crsutton]

The thing is that when the Japanese players pulls a bold stunt like this in an attempt at auto victory and does not get it, then the game usually turns on them very quickly and defeat comes fast. Lowpe is overstretched and exposed at so many points now. Scen 2 gives the Japanese player more toys but is also extremely draining on resources. It is so easy to just burn through your resources so that come 1945 there is nothing left in the well. This was my experience in my last campaign-also a scen 2 game.

It was fun to watch him going for the West Coast. But I think he already knows that this one is over.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Mopping up[/font]
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Port Blair is cleared out and more mopping up in India net me more VPs.

Ground combat at Port Blair (46,58)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 9864 troops, 62 guns, 94 vehicles, Assault Value = 679

Defending force 1605 troops, 13 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 11

Allied adjusted assault: 849

Japanese adjusted defense: 1

Allied assault odds: 849 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2311 casualties reported
Squads: 21 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 159 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 16 (16 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
33 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Ground combat at Kohima (61,39)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 10625 troops, 126 guns, 30 vehicles, Assault Value = 333

Defending force 3877 troops, 38 guns, 6 vehicles, Assault Value = 83

Allied adjusted assault: 151

Japanese adjusted defense: 64

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)

Allied forces CAPTURE Kohima !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1385 casualties reported
Squads: 25 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 41 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 11 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 13 (8 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (4 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 5

Allied ground losses:
78 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

[HansBolter]

Hip Hip Hooray for the Omaha's!

[Canoerebel]

Kudos to Lowpe for trying something bold and entertaining. But, as Ross points out, when the wheels come off on an operation like this one, things do get ugly. Lowpe's going to have to fight against the natural tendency to lose interest. Watching replays in which carrier TFs get battered by surface combat TFs, while an army is threatened with utter destruction, isn't conducive to gaming pleasure. If things were going well - if Lowpe had taken LA and San Diego - he'd be flipipng turns like crazy now, no matter what's going on in his other game and real life. But it's incredibly hard to watch those wheels come off and maintain a reasonable level of motivation.

Someday we're going to see an elite-level Japanese player implement this strategy against a veteran but not-alert-enough Allied player. I think this strategy could work for auto victory, especially in one of the scenarios in which the IJ player gets lots of extra troops and ships.

In John III's game vs. NYGiants, he got off to a good enough start to pursue a strategy like this one. He took Alaska and Hawaii early on. But he just wasn't interested in pushing a West Coast/auto-victory strategy.

But I doubt this is a viable strategy in late '42 or early '43 if the Allied player has been building forts and has kept a decent garrison on the West Coast. I think the IJ player has to plan this from the outset and should strike the West Coast by late spring or early summer '42.

A relatively inexperienced Allied player would be in big doo-doo.

I'd like to see that "one of these days."

[HansBolter]

That door swings both ways.

Consider how demoralized and disinterested an Allied player is likely to become once he loses San Diego.

While extreme go for broke strategies make for great entertainment for the peanut gallery, they rarely contribute to a an enjoyable gaming experience.

[JocMeister]

To be honest losing SD wouldn´t trouble me THAT much. I would lose my patrols but that can to some extent be mitigated by using allied 4Es as patrols. In fact the moment he landed I switched around 60 allied pilots over from NavB to NavS. Its a blow but not much more.

Losing LA on the other hand with be...catastrophic. But again not crippling IMO. You would lose most (all?) of the P38 and and P51 production which would be a tremendous blow. But I think the allies could manage without it playing more defensively. P47s would still be around and so would Corsairs and Hellcats...

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Kudos to Lowpe for trying something bold and entertaining. But, as Ross points out, when the wheels come off on an operation like this one, things do get ugly. Lowpe's going to have to fight against the natural tendency to lose interest. Watching replays in which carrier TFs get battered by surface combat TFs, while an army is threatened with utter destruction, isn't conducive to gaming pleasure. If things were going well - if Lowpe had taken LA and San Diego - he'd be flipipng turns like crazy now, no matter what's going on in his other game and real life. But it's incredibly hard to watch those wheels come off and maintain a reasonable level of motivation.

Someday we're going to see an elite-level Japanese player implement this strategy against a veteran but not-alert-enough Allied player. I think this strategy could work for auto victory, especially in one of the scenarios in which the IJ player gets lots of extra troops and ships.

In John III's game vs. NYGiants, he got off to a good enough start to pursue a strategy like this one. He took Alaska and Hawaii early on. But he just wasn't interested in pushing a West Coast/auto-victory strategy.

But I doubt this is a viable strategy in late '42 or early '43 if the Allied player has been building forts and has kept a decent garrison on the West Coast. I think the IJ player has to plan this from the outset and should strike the West Coast by late spring or early summer '42.

A relatively inexperienced Allied player would be in big doo-doo.

I'd like to see that "one of these days."

As you say I don´t think its doable this late. But an early landing in say March/April when the Allies are at their weakest and perhaps only level 3-4 forts...scary scary!

But personally I don´t think a move on the WC is the best use of Japanese assets. I´m not going to expand too much of that in case I ever get around to playing Japan.. [;)] But I think with a competent Japanese player in a SCEN 2 environment and the right opening achieving AV could be done with a pretty big degree of certainty.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter
Hip Hip Hooray for the Omaha's!

Indeed. I love those little buggers. Lots of TTs! Sadly I think the Detroit might be done for. She took a LOT of 20cm shells in that day engagement.

It certainly won´t be in vain though. If Shoho, Ryuho and Hosho is anything like Allied CVEs they are in a world of problems right now. Its a loooong way to PH and I´d be surprised if none of them joins Zuiho at the bottom of the sea. [:)]

Also very glad to report that the reign of Japanese DDs are now over. With the exception of poor Lichtfield (an old Clemson) our DDs did very well. Granted I cheated a little bit by throwing in DD Strong in the mix. A Fletcher with 74 EXP...

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Rio Bravo

Joc-

*clapping hands and motioning out the dancing girls*

Regarding Auto Victory, great job putting the Allies in a position to fight the war to the bitter end.

Best Regards,

-Terry

I was just thinking the opposite - this is going to end rather quickly, IMO.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I was just thinking the opposite - this is going to end rather quickly, IMO.

In my favor or Jeffs? [X(]

[Canoerebel]

He means in your favor.

For the Peanut Gallery reading both AARs (I was one of them) it was fascinating to watch this develop. Lowpe put alot of thought into this. He got alot of input from good players. But your fort building made it pretty clear that he was about to pick up a "tar baby" (something you pick up that you can't shake hold of). And it was really interesting to see your reaction: watching you monitor the intel, discount the possibility because it was such a crazy idea mainly because you were so well prepared and thus had very little concern, and then adjust your thinking as the impossible became reality.

I think all of us wish it could be a nip-and-tuck battle for the pure spectating fun, but not this time. It won't be fun to watch Lowpe reap the harvest he sewed, because it's going to be an ugly one (if I'm reading what's going on correctly).

[richlove]

Let's talk about the bitter end for a minute. Assume Lowpe loses all his troops - how catastrophic is that? I've never played Japan, so I don't have a sense of where they'd be deployed, or what they should be doing at this point of the game. How does that change if he gets half of the troops out? Is his fuel or supply use off the charts? What does that mean to the later game?

[poodlebrain]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Kudos to Lowpe for trying something bold and entertaining. But, as Ross points out, when the wheels come off on an operation like this one, things do get ugly. Lowpe's going to have to fight against the natural tendency to lose interest. Watching replays in which carrier TFs get battered by surface combat TFs, while an army is threatened with utter destruction, isn't conducive to gaming pleasure. If things were going well - if Lowpe had taken LA and San Diego - he'd be flipipng turns like crazy now, no matter what's going on in his other game and real life. But it's incredibly hard to watch those wheels come off and maintain a reasonable level of motivation.

Someday we're going to see an elite-level Japanese player implement this strategy against a veteran but not-alert-enough Allied player. I think this strategy could work for auto victory, especially in one of the scenarios in which the IJ player gets lots of extra troops and ships.

In John III's game vs. NYGiants, he got off to a good enough start to pursue a strategy like this one. He took Alaska and Hawaii early on. But he just wasn't interested in pushing a West Coast/auto-victory strategy.

But I doubt this is a viable strategy in late '42 or early '43 if the Allied player has been building forts and has kept a decent garrison on the West Coast. I think the IJ player has to plan this from the outset and should strike the West Coast by late spring or early summer '42.

A relatively inexperienced Allied player would be in big doo-doo.

I'd like to see that "one of these days."

The lesson I've taken away from this game is that the West Coast, particularly L.A. and S.D., are extremely vulnerable in 1942. It takes a focused effort for the Allies to prepare an adequate defense. Jocke is fortunate that the Japanese invaded Hawaii instead of the West Coast. The follow on operations in Alaska and Canada gave Jocke sufficient warning, and more importantly time, to prepare his defenses in anticipation of an auto-victory VP grab.

I think the next adventurous Japanese player is going to go straight for L.A. and S.D. while he has the no prep amphib benefits. The goal being to wreck the aircraft factories and shipbuilding in both bases. The goal being a hit and run attack to destroy the aircraft factories and shipbuilding capacities of those bases. The likelihood of the Japanese doing this will have a serious impact on how the allies use their political points since buying out restricted units assigned to the west Coast will be a much lower priority.

I can't help but think this will even further reduce the willingness of Allied players to be aggressive in their early defense efforts in other areas of operations. Defense of the West Coast has to take priority over defense of Australia, India or anywhere else since it is a game changer.