Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

I can't help but think this will even further reduce the willingness of Allied players to be aggressive in their early defense efforts in other areas of operations. Defense of the West Coast has to take priority over defense of Australia, India or anywhere else since it is a game changer.

Lurker here - I find this conversation insightful.

Wouldn't the "anti Brave Sir Robin" strategy also provide protection against this ? Buy time for inches as Japan's player may do at end game ?

Defense in depth as much as possible for every square inch / risk supply runs with lower value ships / actually re-enforce if possible - especially : 1) Bataan triangle 2) All in in Singapore 3) Fortress Palembang 4) Timor Umbrella North Australia

None of this would necessitate that the Allied player could hope to hold these spots.. not suggesting that... just consolidate , supply, hang on , re-enforce if possible and even counter attack if Japan brings too little to the party saving up for a US invasion ?

[JocMeister]

Agree with the poodle here.

By invading PH and then Alaska I was pretty much forced to spend a lot of effort on the WC. There are 3 "extra" division there that I don´t normally keep there. The 40th and 41st US division and the 3 USMC ID. With the threat to the WC and the loss of PH I decided to buy out restricted OZ divisions instead. I stated prepping the 3 divisions for retaking Coal Harbor instead.

Jeff mentioned in an email that he hadn´t looked into the WC reinforcement package because he didn´t want to spoil the surprise. This probably means he didn´t look into the available US forces either. I´m pretty sure that if he had done that he would have ruled out an invasion. Even without the "extra" 3 divisions I think I would be stronger by 1-2 division. With the advantage of interior lines, defensive terrain and forts...its too much to overcome.

That being said. If Nick had come straight for LA/SD instead of Alaska...I would have been very, very nervous. Not many divisions on the WC that early. Pilot quality horrendous, plane pools completely empty...no allied radar, no AA....the list can be made long.

To sum it up. Its way too late for a WC OP to be successful. Not unless the allied player is caught completely off guard. No forts, no planes, no troops ready in stratmode etc etc.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: richlove

Let's talk about the bitter end for a minute. Assume Lowpe loses all his troops - how catastrophic is that? I've never played Japan, so I don't have a sense of where they'd be deployed, or what they should be doing at this point of the game. How does that change if he gets half of the troops out? Is his fuel or supply use off the charts? What does that mean to the later game?

I have little to no insight into the Japanese economy but losing the troops would be a tremendous VP hit. And worse yet his highly experience divisions would rebuilt with the national EXP level. I think its 45 or 50 for Japan. A big hit as many of his division are in the 80s range. It also means he will have given up large portions of the map for free. And gotten nothing in return.

He will have spent a tremendous amount of fuel in this OP. Massively much with lots and lots of tankers being used to haul fuel to PH instead of hauling oil from the DEI. He does have a big buffer though as this is a SCEN 2 game.

[Bif1961]

I am always amazed how so many players have lightly defended key assets. The Mini-KB of 5 Carriers shouldn't be escorted by just 1 CA and 4 DDs. He was asking for trouble and trouble obliged.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Kudos to Lowpe for trying something bold and entertaining. But, as Ross points out, when the wheels come off on an operation like this one, things do get ugly. Lowpe's going to have to fight against the natural tendency to lose interest. Watching replays in which carrier TFs get battered by surface combat TFs, while an army is threatened with utter destruction, isn't conducive to gaming pleasure. If things were going well - if Lowpe had taken LA and San Diego - he'd be flipipng turns like crazy now, no matter what's going on in his other game and real life. But it's incredibly hard to watch those wheels come off and maintain a reasonable level of motivation.

Someday we're going to see an elite-level Japanese player implement this strategy against a veteran but not-alert-enough Allied player. I think this strategy could work for auto victory, especially in one of the scenarios in which the IJ player gets lots of extra troops and ships.

In John III's game vs. NYGiants, he got off to a good enough start to pursue a strategy like this one. He took Alaska and Hawaii early on. But he just wasn't interested in pushing a West Coast/auto-victory strategy.

But I doubt this is a viable strategy in late '42 or early '43 if the Allied player has been building forts and has kept a decent garrison on the West Coast. I think the IJ player has to plan this from the outset and should strike the West Coast by late spring or early summer '42.

A relatively inexperienced Allied player would be in big doo-doo.

I'd like to see that "one of these days."

Yep, I have had a tendency to move out all of my divisions as soon as possible and take a slow bell on building up defenses. This has go my attention for future campaigns.

[poodlebrain]

Another impact that probably merits discussion is use of Allied units with engineers. Spamming remote islands won't be a viable strategy as the engineers will be needed for fort building. All those "spare" BFs will be better used digging on the West Coast than Flyspeck Island. The Allies will have to choose their bases in the Pacific with more care, and put serious effort into developing the few thay select. The bad news is that those bases will be very attractive targets for the Japanese, but the Allies will definitely know where they will be fighting.

As I perceive things, the Allies will have to identify defensive positions as worth fighting to the death for, die in place to buy time, token resistence and abandon completely. There are very few fight to the death sites for the Allies. There are many places where the Allies would like to die in place while causing significant delays to the Japanes. Unfortunately, the Allies are not in good position to do so effectively at very many of them. The "entertainment" value of the early stages of the game will be determined by the battles for these types of locations since these are actually worth committing valuable assets to.

Another thing that will be likely is a significant Allied offensive operation in the Summer/Fall of 1942 with the forces from the West Coast once they consider it secured from invasion. The Japanese will have reached just about full extension without time to develop proper defenses. So there should be ample targets of opportunity for the Allies to mount an operation involving about a Corps worth of LCUs.

Have I said how much I love this game for its ability to reveal new possibilities based on accumulated knowledge?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

I can't help but think this will even further reduce the willingness of Allied players to be aggressive in their early defense efforts in other areas of operations. Defense of the West Coast has to take priority over defense of Australia, India or anywhere else since it is a game changer.

The problem with that--and you're right--is that Oz or India can also provide an auto-vic. At this point in the game's life the top Japanese players have hyper-optimized the first months. The devs never imagined some things that are "normal" now. The amphib bonus is there to allow historical moves in the DEI, etc., not a San Diego landing. DBB in particular assumes, with its very historical Aussie OOB, that Japan doesn't go huge in an invasion.

I don't know the answer. But as an Allied player I sometimes feel as if I'm standing in mud while Japanese players are flying overhead.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Kudos to Lowpe for trying something bold and entertaining. But, as Ross points out, when the wheels come off on an operation like this one, things do get ugly. Lowpe's going to have to fight against the natural tendency to lose interest. Watching replays in which carrier TFs get battered by surface combat TFs, while an army is threatened with utter destruction, isn't conducive to gaming pleasure. If things were going well - if Lowpe had taken LA and San Diego - he'd be flipipng turns like crazy now, no matter what's going on in his other game and real life. But it's incredibly hard to watch those wheels come off and maintain a reasonable level of motivation.

Someday we're going to see an elite-level Japanese player implement this strategy against a veteran but not-alert-enough Allied player. I think this strategy could work for auto victory, especially in one of the scenarios in which the IJ player gets lots of extra troops and ships.

In John III's game vs. NYGiants, he got off to a good enough start to pursue a strategy like this one. He took Alaska and Hawaii early on. But he just wasn't interested in pushing a West Coast/auto-victory strategy.

But I doubt this is a viable strategy in late '42 or early '43 if the Allied player has been building forts and has kept a decent garrison on the West Coast. I think the IJ player has to plan this from the outset and should strike the West Coast by late spring or early summer '42.

A relatively inexperienced Allied player would be in big doo-doo.

I'd like to see that "one of these days."

As you say I don´t think its doable this late. But an early landing in say March/April when the Allies are at their weakest and perhaps only level 3-4 forts...scary scary!

But personally I don´t think a move on the WC is the best use of Japanese assets. I´m not going to expand too much of that in case I ever get around to playing Japan.. [;)] But I think with a competent Japanese player in a SCEN 2 environment and the right opening achieving AV could be done with a pretty big degree of certainty.

Not so sure about this if the opponent is just as competent. Would have to be vs a weaker opponent to pull it off. But I never really play or allow play for auto victory. Weather it can be done in game life it was not possible in the real world. The two cultures were just too extremely opposite to think that they would have remained at peace. Even if totally knocked about the US would have eventually prevailed. Even if it took them a decade. I think auto victory makes for short violent games which do not appeal to me. If my Japanese opponents takes me to 8/45 then he has a minor victory in my book. At least.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: richlove

Let's talk about the bitter end for a minute. Assume Lowpe loses all his troops - how catastrophic is that? I've never played Japan, so I don't have a sense of where they'd be deployed, or what they should be doing at this point of the game. How does that change if he gets half of the troops out? Is his fuel or supply use off the charts? What does that mean to the later game?

For Japan, losing troops is the norm-especially as 1944 rolls around. It is ships and resources than cannot be replaced.

The thing is that the Japanese player has to reveal his choices early on. If he has not pushed into India and Australia then two things happen. One the Allies need no longer worry about India and Australia, and this should be an indication that there is something else big afoot. The Allies have to be careful, but with careful reading of the tea leaves a good Allied player should suspect where Japan is going. They just have to move so many resources to escape Allied notice.

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

I can't help but think this will even further reduce the willingness of Allied players to be aggressive in their early defense efforts in other areas of operations. Defense of the West Coast has to take priority over defense of Australia, India or anywhere else since it is a game changer.

The problem with that--and you're right--is that Oz or India can also provide an auto-vic. At this point in the game's life the top Japanese players have hyper-optimized the first months. The devs never imagined some things that are "normal" now. The amphib bonus is there to allow historical moves in the DEI, etc., not a San Diego landing. DBB in particular assumes, with its very historical Aussie OOB, that Japan doesn't go huge in an invasion.

I don't know the answer. But as an Allied player I sometimes feel as if I'm standing in mud while Japanese players are flying overhead.

And then they get mad when the Allied does some kind of Sir Robin Defense.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

And then they get mad when the Allied does some kind of Sir Robin Defense.

I played a DBB game this past winter with a gent who doesn't hang around here. I didn't know him beforehand, and he was a top player with a hyper-optimized (four games that didn't go beyond 1942) opening. It was the game I have alluded to where he sank Saratoga at the pier before I had entered orders for my first turn. It was my first DBB game and first with SLs.

I didn't play great, but I played at what the forum would probably judge average to advanced average. When I resigned in 1942 he had, from memory, 12 IDs in Oz plus massive tank formations. Almost no strat VPs yet, so he had 6k-10k more on the table easy. Perth and Brisbane fell the same week. In DBB Oz can't form full divisions, and their armor arrives 80% disabled. The hyper-optimized DEI route got him to three sides of Oz very quickly. I'm sure there are folks here who could have done better, but not me.

I can hear Symon snorting about 12 IDs in Oz.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

And then they get mad when the Allied does some kind of Sir Robin Defense.

I played a DBB game this past winter with a gent who doesn't hang around here. I didn't know him beforehand, and he was a top player with a hyper-optimized (four games that didn't go beyond 1942) opening. It was the game I have alluded to where he sank Saratoga at the pier before I had entered orders for my first turn. It was my first DBB game and first with SLs.

I didn't play great, but I played at what the forum would probably judge average to advanced average. When I resigned in 1942 he had, from memory, 12 IDs in Oz plus massive tank formations. Almost no strat VPs yet, so he had 6k-10k more on the table easy. Perth and Brisbane fell the same week. In DBB Oz can't form full divisions, and their armor arrives 80% disabled. The hyper-optimized DEI route got him to three sides of Oz very quickly. I'm sure there are folks here who could have done better, but not me.

I can hear Symon snorting about 12 IDs in Oz.

I would term him a gamer (and a damn good one) but not necessarily a wargamer. For some the simulation does not matter-it just comes down to beating someone. Nothing wrong with this but it is not my cup of tea.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: richlove

Let's talk about the bitter end for a minute. Assume Lowpe loses all his troops - how catastrophic is that? I've never played Japan, so I don't have a sense of where they'd be deployed, or what they should be doing at this point of the game. How does that change if he gets half of the troops out? Is his fuel or supply use off the charts? What does that mean to the later game?

The troops aren't an issue, really. The issue is multifaceted, but a big part of it is that Joc has just taken the Andamans with every major IJN ship way off at CONUS, which is going to hasten the end of this game even if Joc just sits on them for 6 months (he won't).

Add to that an anticipation of more shipping losses off CONUS... were I Lowpe, I would strongly consider just leaving the troops to die and not bother getting most of them out.

And yes, to add on to what poodlebrain said, if I were to do this as Japan, it wouldn't be in December 1942. It would be as early as possible. Potentially March or April. I'd likely skip Hawaii but probably grab some Alaskan coastline on the way.

[Mike McCreery]

These specialized attacks are interesting but I think ultimately the reason they are not done often is that strategically they really dont gain much.

There is no significant infrastructure or resources at Hawaii that merits the taking of this island group. It is far out from Japan and it's fuel resources and needs to be defended with extra logistics.

Australia seems to be much the same. There is some industry at Perth but little to no oil and resources can be gained much closer to the Japanese homeland.

Australia, the PH and the WC are just too far for Japan to hold late into the game and base points are only calculated at the end.

Lowpe pulled all his forces to the right side of the map and Joc is making a logical move to attack the weak area.

My take on the specialized moves is if they are not used in a coordinated way to diminish the allied Naval and carrier power then they are largely wasted efforts.

[JocMeister]

Hi guys. Busy day renovating the laundry room. No turn from Jeff I´m afraid so no update.

Interesting discussion though. I´ll add my thought later! [:)]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

These specialized attacks are interesting but I think ultimately the reason they are not done often is that strategically they really dont gain much.

There is no significant infrastructure or resources at Hawaii that merits the taking of this island group. It is far out from Japan and it's fuel resources and needs to be defended with extra logistics.

Australia seems to be much the same. There is some industry at Perth but little to no oil and resources can be gained much closer to the Japanese homeland.

Australia, the PH and the WC are just too far for Japan to hold late into the game and base points are only calculated at the end.

Lowpe pulled all his forces to the right side of the map and Joc is making a logical move to attack the weak area.

My take on the specialized moves is if they are not used in a coordinated way to diminish the allied Naval and carrier power then they are largely wasted efforts.

Well, I think a quick stab to take SD or LA if it can be done is well worth it. But then I would cut and run, or even as Lokasenna suggests just abandon the troops if the American fleet is around. Taking out even one of these two aircraft production centers would be a brutal blow to the Allied player and help set the Japanese player up for a good endgame. LA would probably be fatal. Seattle would hurt but the Allies can win without the superfort. Next game I will focus on building these bases up first. That said. This tactic is a gaming tactic and has no connection to reality. The Americans would have recovered quickly enough and moved production to other safer locations and still pounded the hell out of Japan. So if my Japanese opponent pulled it off, I would probably resign, give them a hearty "good game" and never play them again. [;)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Wargmr

These specialized attacks are interesting but I think ultimately the reason they are not done often is that strategically they really dont gain much.

There is no significant infrastructure or resources at Hawaii that merits the taking of this island group. It is far out from Japan and it's fuel resources and needs to be defended with extra logistics.

Australia seems to be much the same. There is some industry at Perth but little to no oil and resources can be gained much closer to the Japanese homeland.

Australia, the PH and the WC are just too far for Japan to hold late into the game and base points are only calculated at the end.

Lowpe pulled all his forces to the right side of the map and Joc is making a logical move to attack the weak area.

My take on the specialized moves is if they are not used in a coordinated way to diminish the allied Naval and carrier power then they are largely wasted efforts.

Well, I think a quick stab to take SD or LA if it can be done is well worth it. But then I would cut and run, or even as Lokasenna suggests just abandon the troops if the American fleet is around. Taking out even one of these two aircraft production centers would be a brutal blow to the Allied player and help set the Japanese player up for a good endgame. LA would probably be fatal. Seattle would hurt but the Allies can win without the superfort. Next game I will focus on building these bases up first. That said. This tactic is a gaming tactic and has no connection to reality. The Americans would have recovered quickly enough and moved production to other safer locations and still pounded the hell out of Japan. So if my Japanese opponent pulled it off, I would probably resign, give them a hearty "good game" and never play them again. [;)]

What, you wouldn't return the favor by landing at some coastal hex in Japan in June 1943 to destroy a bunch of factories?

[poodlebrain]

What, you wouldn't return the favor by landing at some coastal hex in Japan in June 1943 to destroy a bunch of factories?

I think I'm detecting critical levels of sarcasm here. What Pacific Coast cities of Japan have major aircraft factories that are not Heavy Urban terrain? The Allies can only contemplate a mad dash for a specific city, a quick dump of the ground forces and hope they brought enough for a quick capture. There won't be any USN hanging around to provide air support.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

What, you wouldn't return the favor by landing at some coastal hex in Japan in June 1943 to destroy a bunch of factories?

I think I'm detecting critical levels of sarcasm here. What Pacific Coast cities of Japan have major aircraft factories that are not Heavy Urban terrain? The Allies can only contemplate a mad dash for a specific city, a quick dump of the ground forces and hope they brought enough for a quick capture. There won't be any USN hanging around to provide air support.

There are a few, perhaps more in Scen 2 than Scen 1. Utsonomiya for one, which is clear terrain.

Tsu, west of Nagoya, has 7 factories in Scen 2. It's clear terrain.

Sendai has 1 factory.


Any of those would go poof. Japan doesn't really get a lot of reinforcement LCUs until 1944. If you know the Japanese OOB and what units start where, as well as which units are where, you can know about what your opponent left back in Japan. If you really had your eyes on a prize like this, you could do it. I'd wait for Hellcats on the CVs, but it could definitely be done - much in the same way as a negligent Allied player vis-a-vis CONUS, a Japan player can easily be negligent of these particular hexes. Tunnel Vision Syndrome.

[JocMeister]

I don´t think taking PH is the best opening to be honest. As Japan you need to try and get the "most bang for buck" in 42 and there are IMO more effective options then PH/WC. When I looked at the PH operation VP wise the only net gain for Japan was the troop VPs. I did not include the base VPs in the calculation as these are not permanent. The rest was eaten up by Japanese losses in planes and mostly ships. Even in 43 I still get 1-2 confirmations per week on ships sunk in the landing by CD guns. In all my games I have never had so many ship VPs as this one.

When you consider the commitment for this OP there are clearly more effective opening. Granted if PH was the first step on something bigger it might still be a viable opening. Not so sure an OP against the WC is a very good idea either. I still think there are more effective ways for Japan to go about. Any OP on the WC gives the allies a free hand on the rest of the map. This will never be a good idea regardless of what a WC operation yields. And lets face it. Nothing that Japan can do on the WC will prevent the allies from winning the war in the end. Not even losing LA. You still get Corsairs, Hellcats and most importantly P47s. I´m 100% confident I could do just as well without them with a more defensive tactics in the air during 44-45. Especially in a PDU on environment.

To be honest I´m a little bit disappointed Jeff/Nick went this route. Its a novelty for sure and the "fun factor" is there. But by doing this he has potentially shortened the war considerably. Its clear now that Japan has failed the WC OP despite focusing all their power in one place. But in doing so the rest of the map is left completely wide open. I know you all want me to go for the throat and end this is as quickly as possible. As I said earlier I could probably end this within 6 months. That is the cost of the WC OP. That would still be the cost even if the WC was successful. So if you weigh the cost vs. reward even at the best (for Japan) possible outcome you trade some Allied fighter production in 44-45 for the DEI. If you lost the DEI or even just PB there won´t be a game in 44. I´m 90% sure I could take PB within 3-4 month if I set myself to it and Jeff lingers on the WC. But if I´m successful it means the game is pretty much over. Not sure I want that. I invested a lot of time and effort into this game and it would suck to see it end like that.

To be Frank. A WC OP was and is a bad idea for Japan. Especially in late 42/43. This is the main reason I was so skeptical about it. Looking at the forces available and the allied preparation due to the Japanese presence in Canada and PH it looked impossible. And I think it is. And regardless of the possibility of success or not its still a bad idea for the reasons I specified above. Japan can not land on the WC while keeping the Allies at bay in India/Burma/SOPAC/DEI. Its just impossible. A lightning attack at SD in early 42 might have its merits but I still don´t think its worth the investment.

So what now? I still have to ponder this. I´m going to go ahead with Pencil II and Paper. They are already in motion and I´m not going to reprepp them for a move on PB. After that? Now sure yet. I have an idea though that I don´t think you will like. But I don´t care. [;)]

In the end its actually about my own enjoyment. In my game with Erik I didn´t need to take the Marianas. I did anyway after Moose persuaded me and it turned out to be one of the most fun things I have done in AE. [:)]

So I´m probably going to do the same thing here. Do what I think will be most fun and give me the most enjoyment and that is not ending the game in 43 by raiding PB.

And that is that. [:)]

PS. No turn yet so no update.