Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

This is the state of the P47 squadrons. Their value can certainly not be understated. To any JFB thinking about invading the WC in early 42: Remember that these arrive...

Kills: 107
Losses: 6

I still have 69 of these guys available. I can probably keep 1-2 squadrons operational until production start in July.

Pretty impressive. Are these early squadrons some sort of prototype? Maybe an alpha or beta test as we might say now?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: jwolf
Pretty impressive. Are these early squadrons some sort of prototype? Maybe an alpha or beta test as we might say now?

I think they normally arrive in July but I´m not sure. It was pretty much the only positive thing arriving in the air via the emergency reinforcements. All the other squadrons that arrived was more or less empty.

Not these guys thankfully! [:)]

[AcePylut]

I’m really curious as to your thoughts….

Tactically – this is shaping up to be a defeat for Japan.

Strategically, however, with the loss of all those aircraft factories in LA, how do you see that affecting the US Aircraft pools long term? Will your airforce be ground to nothing in 43,44,45 as you don’t get all those planes that are most desperately needed?
It’s well documented that Japan can lose it’s high quality pilots and planes, and have a “new batch” of high quality pilots and planes up and running in a few months.

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: jwolf
Pretty impressive. Are these early squadrons some sort of prototype? Maybe an alpha or beta test as we might say now?

I think they normally arrive in July but I´m not sure. It was pretty much the only positive thing arriving in the air via the emergency reinforcements. All the other squadrons that arrived was more or less empty.

Not these guys thankfully! [:)]

We probably need a database guru to be definitive.

I don't think the P47 would show up in 1942 at all and not in those numbers even by July 1943 ~ albeit I am a newbie.

They probably are some sort of emergency reserve upgrade that were not transferred to ETO / North Africa given you are playing in January 1943.

Simply the P47 is / was a hugely competitive advantage. Not only in game but in real life IIRC.

Mustangs / Corsairs / and to a lesser degree Hellcats have a lot of sex appeal in this game and in books / miniatures / films.

But I recall reading in a variety of books the Thunderbolt actually had the "least amount of losses per sortie" of all fighter types in all theaters of WW2. The last models circa 1945 were literally so big so heavy and so steady they were 2X and 3X the size weight of most other fighter types. Damage resistant to say the least.

I think Wikipedia also suggests this. Some folk are uncertain of wiki but I have no proof either way to what I recall reading etc.

[HansBolter]

I'm confused. What aircraft factories did he lose in LA?

How did he lose them?

I don't recall seeing LA fall to the Japanese.

If you're referring to damage from strategic bombing rather than destruction caused by losing control of the hex, can't the damage be repaired?

I thought the only way to "lose" a factory was by losing the hex, otherwise it's only damage that can be repaired and unlike the Japanese, the Americans have all the supply they need for the repair work.

I am wrong in my understanding?

Can strategic bombing permanently destroy factories?

[Canoerebel]

I'll step in before the confusion grows amuck.

No aircraft factories have been damaged or lost, at L.A. or anywhere else. Acepylut misread something.

So this situation is just totaly victory - strategic, operational, tactical - for Jocke. The question is whether Jeff pulls himself together enough to soldier on. He has a good record of standing against despair, but this situation will really test his resolve. Encouraging words from the Peanut Gallery will be most appreciated, I think.

As for the P-47s, they do arrive in the summer of '43. Here we're already at January '43, so they're not ridiculously early. But Jocke is pointing out that an IJ invasion in early '42 would encounter Thunderbolts more than a year early.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll step in before the confusion grows amuck.

No aircraft factories have been damaged or lost, at L.A. or anywhere else. Acepylut misread something.

So this situation is just totaly victory - strategic, operational, tactical - for Jocke. The question is whether Jeff pulls himself together enough to soldier on. He has a good record of standing against despair, but this situation will really test his resolve. Encouraging words from the Peanut Gallery will be most appreciated, I think.

As for the P-47s, they do arrive in the summer of '43. Here we're already at January '43, so they're not ridiculously early. But Jocke is pointing out that an IJ invasion in early '42 would encounter Thunderbolts more than a year early.

And as good as the P-47 is versus against contemporary and accelerated Japanese fighters, put it up against much earlier fighters... [X(]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

I’m really curious as to your thoughts….

Tactically – this is shaping up to be a defeat for Japan.

Strategically, however, with the loss of all those aircraft factories in LA, how do you see that affecting the US Aircraft pools long term? Will your airforce be ground to nothing in 43,44,45 as you don’t get all those planes that are most desperately needed?
It’s well documented that Japan can lose it’s high quality pilots and planes, and have a “new batch” of high quality pilots and planes up and running in a few months.

I havn´t lost any aircraft factories either at LA or SD...[:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

I'm confused. What aircraft factories did he lose in LA?

How did he lose them?

I don't recall seeing LA fall to the Japanese.

If you're referring to damage from strategic bombing rather than destruction caused by losing control of the hex, can't the damage be repaired?

I thought the only way to "lose" a factory was by losing the hex, otherwise it's only damage that can be repaired and unlike the Japanese, the Americans have all the supply they need for the repair work.

I am wrong in my understanding?

Can strategic bombing permanently destroy factories?

I havn´t lost anything so your memory is correct. [:)]

Strategic bombing CAN permanently destroy a factory. This can be done by creating what is called a "firestorm". But to my knowledge it has never been done. I tried doing it in a self made scenario using thousands on B29s but it never happened.

Its in the manual somewhere but I think it mechanics of it has been broken somewhere along the line.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll step in before the confusion grows amuck.

No aircraft factories have been damaged or lost, at L.A. or anywhere else. Acepylut misread something.

So this situation is just totaly victory - strategic, operational, tactical - for Jocke. The question is whether Jeff pulls himself together enough to soldier on. He has a good record of standing against despair, but this situation will really test his resolve. Encouraging words from the Peanut Gallery will be most appreciated, I think.

As for the P-47s, they do arrive in the summer of '43. Here we're already at January '43, so they're not ridiculously early. But Jocke is pointing out that an IJ invasion in early '42 would encounter Thunderbolts more than a year early.

Exactly! [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
And as good as the P-47 is versus against contemporary and accelerated Japanese fighters, put it up against much earlier fighters... [X(]

Indeed. An early invasion of the WC would see mostly A6M2s, Oscars and possibly at best a few Tojos...but given an early invasion numbers would be low and losses would be tremendous.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

I'm confused. What aircraft factories did he lose in LA?

How did he lose them?

I don't recall seeing LA fall to the Japanese.

If you're referring to damage from strategic bombing rather than destruction caused by losing control of the hex, can't the damage be repaired?

I thought the only way to "lose" a factory was by losing the hex, otherwise it's only damage that can be repaired and unlike the Japanese, the Americans have all the supply they need for the repair work.

I am wrong in my understanding?

Can strategic bombing permanently destroy factories?

Factories can be permanently destroyed by fires, but it takes one tremendous fire level that burns for days and then the destruction of industry is random, so the aircraft factories might not be destroyed at all. And we all know how impossible it is for IJA two engined bombers to drop enough bombs to get a firestorm going!

[ny59giants]

What are the number of and quality of your DBs and TBs on the WC?? If Jeff has to try a Dunkirk like Greyjoy did, can you hurt him?

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I think they [P47] normally arrive in July but I´m not sure. It was pretty much the only positive thing arriving in the air via the emergency reinforcements. All the other squadrons that arrived were more or less empty.

Not these guys thankfully! [:)]

Is this a random thing? That is, which of the emergency squadrons are actually filled out as opposed to mere shells? I am wondering especially regarding Dan's comment a bit later that an early 1942 IJ invasion of the US could theoretically trigger activation of P47s more than a year early. Maybe the P47 units would just be empty shells? Definitely it would be unbalancing to have P47s that early, although admittedly in any game where the Japanese are seriously invading the US then "balance" was a casualty long beforehand.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

What are the number of and quality of your DBs and TBs on the WC?? If Jeff has to try a Dunkirk like Greyjoy did, can you hurt him?

I have a good strike package ready. Some 120 DBs and 60 TBs. Without CAP they can probably cause some mischief. [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: jwolf
Is this a random thing? That is, which of the emergency squadrons are actually filled out as opposed to mere shells? I am wondering especially regarding Dan's comment a bit later that an early 1942 IJ invasion of the US could theoretically trigger activation of P47s more than a year early. Maybe the P47 units would just be empty shells? Definitely it would be unbalancing to have P47s that early, although admittedly in any game where the Japanese are seriously invading the US then "balance" was a casualty long beforehand.

Nope, I think its the way the squadrons arrive on map. Some with planes and some without. Whoever designed the emergency reinforcements never bothered to look if they arrived with any planes or not. He just added squadrons assuming they would have a full complement of planes. This is why the air reinforcements (besides the P47s) were useless. They had no planes. I received something like 30 DB and TB squadrons. Mostly USMC. All without planes and 30/30 pilots.

So a Japanese invasion of the WC in January 42 would with 100% certainty give the allied player 75 P47s.

Keep in mind though that actual production still starts in July 43 regardless of planes arriving. So once you run out of the ones you get they are gone.

[Canoerebel]

And the question of whether a Japanese invasion of the West Coast can be an effective, perhaps even game-winning, strategy still hasn't been determined.

I think that it can. There are two possibilities: (1) that an invasion could give the Japanese the necessary VP to achieve auto victory; and (2) that an invasion could knock out enough aircraft factories (and perhaps ships, especially CVE) to allow Japan to fight more effectively during the late game.

In various posts through the years, I've seen smart and experienced Forumites proffer these strategies credibly. I don't think the first I mentioned has been discussed in detail in either this AAR or in Jeff's. But the combination of strategic bombing against West Coast targets and the taking and building of big, points-rich bases (especially in Alaska and Canada) is a sobering prospect. If a very good IJ player started the game planning to strike at CVE production at Portland/Tacoma (what a haul of VP!) and/or aircraft production at LA and/or San Diego, I think there is a fair chance he might achieve his objectives.

I don't think we've seen this happen yet. And I'm not sure it's possible against a good and experienced Allied player. But if you start out with an elite Japanese player against a relatively inexperienced Allied payer, I'd place all my money on Japan.

[BBfanboy]

If US CVs get sunk during the game a replacement CV is put in the reinforcement queue - but I wonder if the same applies to CVEs? So maybe taking Portland takes all those CVEs off the queue but puts them back on somewhat later. And you don't get points for all the ships. Those that are "Building" give something like half points but those that haven't started building might not give you any points.

[bomccarthy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll step in before the confusion grows amuck.

No aircraft factories have been damaged or lost, at L.A. or anywhere else. Acepylut misread something.

So this situation is just totaly victory - strategic, operational, tactical - for Jocke. The question is whether Jeff pulls himself together enough to soldier on. He has a good record of standing against despair, but this situation will really test his resolve. Encouraging words from the Peanut Gallery will be most appreciated, I think.

As for the P-47s, they do arrive in the summer of '43. Here we're already at January '43, so they're not ridiculously early. But Jocke is pointing out that an IJ invasion in early '42 would encounter Thunderbolts more than a year early.

Exactly! [:)]

Just checking some offline sources - IRL, approx 530 P-47s (Cs and Bs) were delivered between May and Dec 1942, equipping two fighter groups in the continental US. According to this source (Dean, America's One Hundred Thousand), the P-47D was the first model that could use external tanks in combat situations; production of the D didn't start until Feb 1943. Production of the C started in Oct 1942 and only 170 Bs were produced (most between June and Sept 1942). The first group to go operational with the P-47B was the 56th, in Nov 1942; it was sent to the UK in Jan 1943.

Having P-47s arrive before June 1942 would be unrealistic, but so would having masses of Ki-84s arrive before the middle of 1944.

[Canoerebel]

Allied CVEs lost in battle don't get replaced (as far as I know; but every time I make a definitive statement, somebody brighter than me comes along and points out I am mistaken).

As for the P47Bs arriving in May 1942, they'll undoubtedly face opposition from aircraft that weren't available then...and in this case it would be the IJ player that triggered their appearance into the game. So I wouldn't lose any sleep over their "miraculous" early advent.