The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Lecivius]

Good on both of you for being so civil, and for picking this up again. Press on!

[jwolf]

Hey, this is great news! Good luck to both of you as you continue this epic contest!

[Canoerebel]

Looks like we will have to deal with and resolve some sync issues. When I ran the turn, it didn't show any Allied air strikes on Japanese BBs. But when I open the next turn file and check the combat report, the strikes are there. So I do think they actually happened, which is a good thing.

More later.

[Canoerebel]

I opened the new turn, looked at the mass of Allied ships way, way out in the middle of Indian country, and my stomach flipped. For a few uncomfortable moments, I had to beat back the urge to send everything back towards Oz to regroup in friendly territory.

Then I remembered what the real objective is: Whittle the Japanese Navy. And this turn was a good instance. John sent two BBs and a handful of DDs to bombard Sabang, but his TF ended up a hex or two shy and within range of the Allied carriers. Strike aircraft sortied in large numbers. Sadly, all planes carrying torps (including Stringbags) missed. But Mutsu takes ten bombs, Ise 16, and three DDs went under. That's some decent whittling.

As we resume after this long hiatus, I think John will continue to feed ships, subs and aircraft into the fray. So Job 1 is to maintain my defenses to effectively ward off his strikes.

Even as I focus on defense, the offensive nature of the operation is unfolding this way: (1) secure the positions already taken, mainly by getting supply distributed; early on, Boela (on Ceram) is my hub; (2) if possible, move quickly and in overpowering strength against Ambon (the fifth of the five major targets, the Allies having already taken the other four: Boela, Morotai, Sorong and Manikwari); and (3) once things have been stabilized, retire in good order to Normantown, Australia, to replenish and then load the next wave of assault troops, which are bound for Merauke, Horn Island and Port Moresby.

This will take the better part of two months, I'd guess. That's two months with both sides in close proximity. There will be plenty of blood-letting. But the Allies have the ships, fuel, and bases to make it possible to stake out their perimeter and see the battle through.

[Capt. Harlock]

Sadly, all planes carrying torps (including Stringbags) missed.

Well, rats. How often in 1943 onwards do Stringbags get a shot at Japanese BB's without getting slaughtered by CAP? Time to upgrade the airframes (and court-martial the pilots).

[Canoerebel]

The Big Tent situation as we resume the game.

[Canoerebel]

I took a close look at my carrier fighters. The carriers have been involved in a lot of air missions (the three fleet CV TFs have 70% sorties, the two CVE TFs are at 97%). I recall, in particular, that Japanese fighters mixed it up with my carrier fighters in a tough and bloody affair two or three days back. I was concerned about attrition and fatigue, but careful examination shows the situation is pretty good.

The CVEs have 184 operational fighters (mostly FM1 and F4F). The CVs have 438 operational - 438 Hellcats, 53 Corsairs, 17 F4Fs. That's a total of 692 fighters. Some have fatigue levels in the 20s, but many are in the teens or single digits (all the CVE fighters are set at range one and have single-digit fatigue).

As stated above, the CVEs will move to Boela to replenish fuel and sorties (though they don't need the latter, except for some torpedoes) and to help cover the great amount of shipping there. The fleet carriers will take position a hex to the NE or E.

The biggest decision I have to make is whether to stand down my strike aircraft for a turn or two of rest, while setting my carrier fighters to range 1 or 2 to lower fatigue. The risk is that John might commit his carriers tomorrow. But I don't think he will. I think he'll dance around a bit looking for an opportunity. My carriers just moved NE from a position in the Ceram Sea, so he's more likely to think I might aggressively move forward.

Interesting decisions to be made, most of which I haven't touched on due to shear volume.

[Lokasenna]

Before you stand your strike aircraft down, look at their damage numbers in aircraft data. If you stand them down, many damaged planes may enter repair/maintenance periods and you may not have them available on the following day.

You could pseudo stand them down by reducing range to 0.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Lokasenna. I'd never have thought of that.

Sorong is now torpedo-enabled and has a 36-plane TBF group fresh in from Oz. Perhaps they'll get a crack at those damaged BBs.

[Canoerebel]

While reading "The Elephant Vanishes" (Obvert's) AAR yesterday, I noticed that his game is at 1/21/44, two months ahead of my game.

The point totals in the two games are wildly, dramatically different. This game has been much bloodier than his. That is a reflection of the nonstop action between the two sides. Since late spring of '42, neither side has been separated and there have been no lulls. We've constantly been at each other's throats from the Bay of Bengal to Sumatra to the Marshalls, Gilberts, Wake Island and now eastern DEI.

The real question is whether this is an effective way for an Allied player to wage war. I think it is. I think John's naval forces are teetering on collapse. If that's true, the payoff should become obvious in '44 as the Allies move forward from the ongoing DEI campaign.

We'll see.

[JohnDillworth]

It's been a while and I may be thinking of another game but didn't you get a bunch of AO's? Oh, I know you have responded to this but since I haven't bothered you in 3 months (not my fault you guys took a break ) but you really should have more subs hunting oil and resource ships. Bring some AS ships closer to do quick turn arounds

[Canoerebel]

John's lost some AOs, but I think he gets enough conversions that it isn't a major issue. Especially since he's now defending on an inside perimeter.

A lot of Allied subs are inbound, but they'll be patrolling the Big Tent AOO - the region where KB and combat ships are most likely to lurk - until Big Tent wraps up. Once the situation stabilizes, the subs can go hunting in the South China Sea using some of the new ports as forward bases. But at the moment, my subs are operating from Midway and Geraldton, mostly. Those bases are so far back that it's not efficient to push into the South China Sea.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It's been a while and I may be thinking of another game but didn't you get a bunch of AO's?

I think you're thinking of CR's game with Chez.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

While reading "The Elephant Vanishes" (Obvert's) AAR yesterday, I noticed that his game is at 1/21/44, two months ahead of my game.

Without checking I might be wrong, but I think a lot of the difference is in the mod. Japan here knows it's flush with extra carriers and big-gun skimmers versus stock, so John could afford to join a grind. If your game were Scenario I, and the carrier battle had happened the same, he'd be cooked now. I mean cooked worse than he is.

[Canoerebel]

Look at the difference in points for bases. John has nearly as many bases as Obvert, but only half the points! I don't think Obvert's perimeter is bigger, so my assumption is that he's worked hard building high-value bases while John's neglected doing so.

[Canoerebel]

I probably spent 10 hours reviewing the map and units and clicking new orders. It was tedious, but it helped a lot in refreshing my memory about what's going on. The scrutiny also found the usual multitude of things that had fallen between the cracks while we were flipping turns. Lots of new orders issued to subs, new supply convoys set up, TFs to move some ground units around, etc.

The heart of the war is the DEI, where KB, combat ships, and LBA are close to all the Allied assets involved in Big Tent. In the week (game time) since landings began, both sides have suffered quite a few air losses, John moreso than me. I did lose a few score naval aircraft in an wasteful strike against minor shipping at Ternate a few days back. On the plus side, John's LBA has taken several big hits in trying to strike Death Star, and he lost close to 200 carrier strike aircraft (something like 130 Judys and 40 Jills) two days back.

I don't think John commits KB to a major attack, at least not yet. He's more likely to await an opportunity and/or try for a CAP trap. My carrier aircraft are in better shape than I had expected, but I don't want them accruing additional fatigue or expending sorties against small fry or any CAP traps. So range is reduced for most carrier air to keep them away from Ternate and dangling bait at long range. Hopefully that will give the fighters at least one day reprieve even while the CVEs move into port, where I hope I can begin replacing carrier air in a process that will likely take three to four days overall (allowing one or two carrier TFs per day to move into port).

While carrier replenishing is going on, lots of ships are unloading and/or loading on missions of varying types, including the next generation of amphibious assaults.

Turn off to John. I don't look for him to send it back until tomorrow, at soonest.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Look at the difference in points for bases. John has nearly as many bases as Obvert, but only half the points! I don't think Obvert's perimeter is bigger, so my assumption is that he's worked hard building high-value bases while John's neglected doing so.

It would be a surprise John wouldn't do things that don't involve blowing stuff up? [8|]There's also a huge VP penalty for not attending to supplying the base up to snuff. I sometimes see 100+ VP swings in Tracker for one turn when Lokasenna gets a convoy somewhere.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The real question is whether this is an effective way for an Allied player to wage war. I think it is. I think John's naval forces are teetering on collapse. If that's true, the payoff should become obvious in '44 as the Allies move forward from the ongoing DEI campaign.

It depends on the specifics. In your case, I think your analysis is correct. In other cases... perhaps not. It depends on what's being lost on both sides. For example, IJA LCU points are largely irrelevant beyond their VP value. Same with aircraft. Ships on the other hand...

And then for the Allies, LCU losses can be really tough to deal with. Ships - it depends on the class, quantity and what you traded them for, but most losses can be absorbed. Aircraft... same as ships. Depends on what, how much, and what you got out of it.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Look at the difference in points for bases. John has nearly as many bases as Obvert, but only half the points! I don't think Obvert's perimeter is bigger, so my assumption is that he's worked hard building high-value bases while John's neglected doing so.

It also depends on which bases... Chungking and Chengtu are worth many thousand, for example, when fully built out.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John's lost some AOs, but I think he gets enough conversions that it isn't a major issue. Especially since he's now defending on an inside perimeter.

A lot of Allied subs are inbound, but they'll be patrolling the Big Tent AOO - the region where KB and combat ships are most likely to lurk - until Big Tent wraps up. Once the situation stabilizes, the subs can go hunting in the South China Sea using some of the new ports as forward bases. But at the moment, my subs are operating from Midway and Geraldton, mostly. Those bases are so far back that it's not efficient to push into the South China Sea.

For the record... I've barely used my AOs. Maybe 3 times total in 3 years of turns. I've had them available more times than that, but needing to actually refuel hasn't occurred each time. They aren't as important for Japan as for the Allies, despite the smaller ship bunkers/Endurance (overall) for Japan.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Look at the difference in points for bases. John has nearly as many bases as Obvert, but only half the points! I don't think Obvert's perimeter is bigger, so my assumption is that he's worked hard building high-value bases while John's neglected doing so.

It would be a surprise John wouldn't do things that don't involve blowing stuff up? [8|]There's also a huge VP penalty for not attending to supplying the base up to snuff. I sometimes see 100+ VP swings in Tracker for one turn when Lokasenna gets a convoy somewhere.

The specifics are that the base is worth 100% VPs if it has 100+% required supply. If it has 0% required supply (leftover, NOT in LCUs) then it is worth 25% VPs. I believe it has been stated by devs or someone in the know before that it is in fact a linear relationship. E.g., having only 50% required supply would mean the base was worth 62.5% of its VPs.

I use these supply swings to puzzle out which bases must be running short on supply at times, and what that means for my opponent;'s logistics, but that's all I'm going to say about that right now [:'(]. Except that in our game, it's not convoys changing the math.