The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Dirtnap86]

Ah so I finally got to the end of this. CR, this has been a delight for me to read. I don't own the game yet but I'll likely be picking it up. Seems to be something right up my alley.

[Canoerebel]

11/24/43

Dirtnap, welcome to the community and to the AAR, assuming you're a newbie, though you may not be. I've been playing WitP since about 2007 and it's predecessor, UV, since about 2002. For those of us into this kind of game and this theater or operations, the game is intoxicating.

Big Tent: Saury puts two TT into CV Junyo about seven hexes NW of Ulithi, doing critical but probably not mortal damage. (This, of course, is one of the reasons I've kept quite a few subs in the Marshalls-area sea lanes.) This is a helpful development as it will help me in keeping carrier superiority going forward. I have it at the moment, but there's always the prospect of suffering losses on my end. If John suffers losses too, Big Tent should be fine.

BBs Kirishima and Haruna and CAs Hagura, Atago and Tone were with Junyo. This plus yesterday's sightings of Nagato, Kumano, etc. is a very high percentage of John's remaining capital combat ships. Wherever this gaggle of geese is heading is a "high priority target" for John. I'd better watch out.

And Big Tent needs the occasional good luck since its CiC is prone to goofs from time to time. The amphibs bound for Namlea hit the beaches in good order and with little opposition. But the troops were 100% prepped for a far, far away beach (Eniwetok; these were last minute additions when I discovered I had some room aboard transports). The units just completely vaporized; I'm sure their lack of experience was the key factor. So this invasion is scrubbed.

John sortied some small DD TFs to sniff around; one tangled with CLAA Richmond TF at Namlea. I lost a DD. Later, Death Star strike aircraft scored hits on each DD, possibly sinking one.

All of the Ambon invasion force loaded in one day. D-Day could be the day after tomorrow. I'm inclined to proceed unless something goes awry tomorrow.

Two more dot hexes invaded today. There would have been a third, but John's DDs happened across a lone APD and sank her.

Big Tent has only be in theater for about 7-10 days now, so it's early yet. Lots to do. But I've got to get cracking on supply distribution.

[Flicker]

Pleased that y'all are back at it.

[bradfordkay]

I just wanted to mention that Steve (ChezDaJez) stuck it out in our game until mid-April of 1945 when he surrendered with almost no navy left. He had just purchased War in the West at the time and I think that he was looking forward to some new frontiers.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Anachro

You know one movie I hated? The Thin Red Line

Yes, a weak movie for him. "Days of Heaven" is a better watch. But of course, not a war film.

Love both this and the first one. Badlands with a young Sissy Spacek (!!!) and Martin Sheen.

I do like The Thin Red Line though. A fantastic portrayal of a reflective view of war from a character who is seeing the cost to his own psyche and those around him. It also really focuses on how the destruction makes the beauty that much more fantastic and wondrous. Top 20 film for me.

[Encircled]

Thin Red Line is one of those films in which first viewing I wasn't happy with it (my expectations probably) but second time I saw it I thought it was really good.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

There are two Thin Red line films. Do you guys talk about the one from 1964 or the 1998 film ?

[Canoerebel]

I believe we're all referring to the 1998 film starring Sean Penn.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Ah I see.

[Canoerebel]

11/25/43

Dangerous Waters: Some readers go far enough back to remember when the strait between Ambon and Boela played havoc in the match between Q-Ball and Cuttlefish. I remember that incident, but I nevertheless committed Death Star and a host of combat, transport, and support ships to transit that strait overnight.

I felt pretty good about the situation - Allied ships had already parked at Namlea without encountering mines. So I controlled the hex and therefore the strait. I figured the chances of a mishap were slight given the known disposition of enemy combat ships. Still, there was risk, so I didn't sleep well on this turn.

Sure enough, John loaded the strait with subs and deployed at least one DD there. The subs sank two Allied supply xAK and damaged a DD. But that was it. Essentially the entire Allied fleet transited the strait and took station a hex east of Ambon, as ordered. There the rendezvoused with the main amphibious TF, which left Boela, rounded the opposite end of Ceram, and arrived two hexes east of Ambon.

So the Allied ships are in good position to commence with the invasion of Ambon tomorrow. The landing (33rd US Div. augmented by artillery and an HQ) will be preceeded by two BBs and a CA bombarding.

The one fly in the ointment was that CA Baltimore TF detached from following Death Star and diverted to north of Ceram, in open waters. John's strike aircraft at Ternate sortied in big numbers. Fortunately, the USN TF was close enough to draw bleed-over CAP, which savaged the enemy strike (excerpt at end). On the day, John lost 125 aircraft, the Allies 25.

Lots of enemy combat ships sighted over near Truk. I got a sighting of Shokaku somewhere, but I'm going to have to watch the replay again to verify. It looks like Allied ops won't be molested by major elements of the Kaigun or KB in the near term, which is very helpful.

Lots of base building progress today (see map). Too, barges are beginning to make much-need supply deliveries to distant outposts.

I think this was a very good day for the Allies. Let's see how things look at Ambon tomorrow. Then I'll focus on supply distribution. That and defense become the highest priorities.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Kofiau at 78,107

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 71 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M4 Zero x 33
B6N1 Jill x 51

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 5
F4F-3A Wildcat x 5
F4F-4 Wildcat x 35
FM-1 Wildcat x 12
F6F-3 Hellcat x 88

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M4 Zero: 10 destroyed
B6N1 Jill: 20 destroyed
B6N1 Jill: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
CL Leander
CA Baltimore

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x B6N1 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

[Canoerebel]

Crud. The Shokaku sighting was a coastwatcher report from Kaeving. Zero percent reliability.

Here's the Air Losses screen for the turn. In addition to the big raid described above, two other raids were roughed up.

[BBfanboy]

Looks like all the powerful ships are massing at Truk. That suggests a move eastward to try and cut your LOC, but he doesn't know you have already accumulated all the supply and fuel you need in Oz.
Still, losing some of those bases in the Marshalls and Gilberts would be a PITA.

[Canoerebel]

I don't want to lose any of my main bases in CenPac: Wake, Midway, Wotje, Malolap, Mili, Ailinglaplap, Jaluit and Tarawa being the main ones. He can gang up on an isolated outpost, primarily Wake or Midway, and overwhelm it. It won't be easy for him, but he can do it. If he does, I'll have to retake them later. But his taking them won't directly affect Big Tent. Any major deviation from that theater by him will be the equivalent of Hood marching off into Tennessee when Sherman took Atlanta. Surely John isn't going to give me free reign to march through Georgia?

As for the Marshalls and Gilberts, most of those bases are very strongly held by troops well supplied and well dug in. He'll have a tough time there.

But I think that's what he's going to do. That or raid the LOC between NE Oz and NZ/Suva. He sees all the shipping moving in and out of Townsville. He might think a strong hit on my LOC will disable what's going on in the DEI. What he doesn't know is that the DEI force brought with it 400k supply and something like 200k or 300k fuel. The Allied forces plan to stay in place for two months and don't need any supply or fuel to do so.

[Canoerebel]

Allied defenses in CenPac. There are no freebies here. Midway is the least strongly held; Tarawa most strongly. John is actively reconning many of these bases, at present Wake, Tarawa, Mili. He's shown decided interest in Tarawa in the past. Wake and Midway are obvious targets since they are isolated and would tighten his defensive line.

[Lokasenna]

I'm wondering if he's just positioning himself to hit you on an anticipated return trip east. Maybe he figures that you either have to go past Darwin or past Truk, back the way you came?

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't want to lose any of my main bases in CenPac: Wake, Midway, Wotje, Malolap, Mili, Ailinglaplap, Jaluit and Tarawa being the main ones. He can gang up on an isolated outpost, primarily Wake or Midway, and overwhelm it. It won't be easy for him, but he can do it. If he does, I'll have to retake them later. But his taking them won't directly affect Big Tent. Any major deviation from that theater by him will be the equivalent of Hood marching off into Tennessee when Sherman took Atlanta. Surely John isn't going to give me free reign to march through Georgia?

As for the Marshalls and Gilberts, most of those bases are very strongly held by troops well supplied and well dug in. He'll have a tough time there.

But I think that's what he's going to do. That or raid the LOC between NE Oz and NZ/Suva. He sees all the shipping moving in and out of Townsville. He might think a strong hit on my LOC will disable what's going on in the DEI. What he doesn't know is that the DEI force brought with it 400k supply and something like 200k or 300k fuel. The Allied forces plan to stay in place for two months and don't need any supply or fuel to do so.

I am always amazed at how well you prepare. Chances are John III cannot imagine what you have done either! [:)]

[Anachro]

Yah...I build spreadsheets to tally up my invasion forces for specific islands, etc. Troop numbers, load cost, etc...but have yet to do it on such a scale in terms of supply and fuel.

EDIT

Well, "spreadsheet" is probably a glorified term for simple calculations in excel.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Yah...I build spreadsheets to tally up my invasion forces for specific islands, etc. Troop numbers, load cost, etc...but have yet to do it on such a scale in terms of supply and fuel.

EDIT

Well, "spreadsheet" is probably a glorified term for simple calculations in excel.

I do this, mostly to keep track of stacking levels and such before the units are actually there. That way I don't waste prep time or accidentally overstack.

[Canoerebel]

I do all my figuring on yellow legal pads. It can get pretty tedious, and I make a fair number of miscalculations. I'll probably get more and more careful, and eventually go to a spreadsheet, as time goes on.

[Canoerebel]

So what is John doing? I'm getting enough information via SigInt and NavSearch, augmented by my familiarity with my longtime opponent's proclivities, to hazard a few guesses.

1. It appears that he is moving troops en masse from the Solomons (and probably from the Gilberts, Marshalls, New Guinea, etc.). It does not look like he's committing them to a counter-invasion in the Big Tent AOO. At least, not yet. It looks like Mindanao is his highest priority at the moment.

2. KB is off the radar at the moment, but was last seen as part of the movement of powerful elements of the Kaigun to the Truk area. I do not think John is biding his time looking for a chance to pounce on the retiring Allied ships (if, indeed, he assumes they are going to retire soon). I think he'll consider picking off key bases. To me, Midway and Wake are the only ones that make sense. Those will help him going forward, though not directly in connection with Big Tent. They are irrelevant to the ongoing invasion at this point. So retaking either or both would instead assist him in future operations and by reconstituting a buffer between Hawaii and the Home Islands. Invasions of the Gilberts or Marshalls would be a complete waste of assets. I don't need them any more and probably would ignore any base or bases lost. They are now 2,000 miles behind the front lines and not necessary to future operations.

3. He might pounce on the LOC between Oz and NZ/Fiji. This would appeal to John's raiding mentality. There are Allied ships out there, including a few CVEs and combat ships.

4. Of all these options, only invasions of Wake or Pearl would accomplish anything materially beneficial to Japan, to my way of thinking. And even that wouldn't affect the ongoing operations in the DEI, meaning they would be a misallocation of assets.

5. John's best two options would be (1) to conserve his carriers until more are available and until he refreshes his air corps, or (2) to place them somewhere near the DEI to keep me honest, slow me down, limit how efficient I can be in delivering supply and moving my ships around. He probably doesn't want to take on Death Star, but just position KB near Ternate or Talaud-Eilenden or Wolei would force me to slow down and keep my assets well protected. If he doesn't choose this course of operation, I'll expedite supply delivery. And if KB goes off too far, I'll look for chances to spread the perimeter by additional invasions in the DEI.