Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Lowpe (J)

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]17th February -43[/font]
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Quick update before I head out.

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West Coast
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Looks like the Japanese fleet is indeed pulling out. 12 allied subs are hunting them. Some scattered CAP up over Santa Ana. My sweeps did pretty poorly due to fatigue. Swapped them out for fresh squadrons.


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SOPAC
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Unloading at Milne. A bit risky but I have some P-38s flying CAP from PM.

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Andamans
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Japanese sweep for a 3rd day. Decided to pull my CAP out as I have plenty of AA in both bases and my CAP wasn´t performing as I had wished. No need to give him free kills.

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China
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Jeff has stated pushing here heavily again. No supply means I can only watch while he does. Chungking will fall shortly. Our plan here is simply to try and save remnants of the Chinese army so I can use them once I can get them into supply again.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: JocMeister




Not sure I follow? [:)] The troops arriving from LA took part in the attack so their AV is accounted for?

Flak is still strong so I doubt supply is an issue right now for him. Losing 2-4 bombers per turn.

I've never been too sure that all the AV of troops in move mode is counted in the raw AV of a combat. It seemed to me that enemy AV next round always seems better than it was prior despite losses. Just an impression - I don't catch enemy troops in the wrong mode often enough to be sure. Usually the Japanese are hunkered down behind forts and my troops are the ones moving in.

AFAIK the full AV of the troops in other than Combat mode is counted. But, what I think you are hot on the trail of is that there adjusted AV will suffer the penalties of their mode, plus more vulnerability during various combat phases (artillery, etc.).

I think one concept not being discussed is that combat results are from firepower not AV. It is my understanding AV simply determines if a retest occurs. I'm on my cell phone but I believe a good example is in my first AAR .. I caught the IJ trying to rail forces to Rangoon and I broke the rail line .. and then entered the hex with units in strategic mode .. the AV was around 1:5 as I remember but the results were 5 digits of IJ casulties armor. He strat mode

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy



I've never been too sure that all the AV of troops in move mode is counted in the raw AV of a combat. It seemed to me that enemy AV next round always seems better than it was prior despite losses. Just an impression - I don't catch enemy troops in the wrong mode often enough to be sure. Usually the Japanese are hunkered down behind forts and my troops are the ones moving in.

AFAIK the full AV of the troops in other than Combat mode is counted. But, what I think you are hot on the trail of is that there adjusted AV will suffer the penalties of their mode, plus more vulnerability during various combat phases (artillery, etc.).

I think one concept not being discussed is that combat results are from firepower not AV. It is my understanding AV simply determines if a retest occurs. I'm on my cell phone but I believe a good example is in my first AAR .. I caught the IJ trying to rail forces to Rangoon and I broke the rail line .. and then entered the hex with units in strategic mode .. the AV was around 1:5 as I remember but the results were 5 digits of IJ casulties armor. He strat mode

I believe you are right (it looks like auto-spell on your phone made "retreat" into "retest" [:D]). The final AV odds are good for 1) "who owns the base?", and 2) "is a retreat tested for?"

[Crackaces]

I believe you are right (it looks like auto-spell on your phone made "retreat" into "retest" ). The final AV odds are good for 1) "who owns the base?", and 2) "is a retreat tested for?"

Yes .. auto spell check at its worse .. [:'(]

I think how combat is resolved is a brilliant complexity in the ground game. In the ol' AH (Avilon Hill)
days one lined up strengths to ensure 3-1 and make "soak off attacks" in a very calculated set of motions with the outcome limited to a known CRT.
In this game you might have a clue of Attack Value at one level and gauge your operations based on that knowledge
.. a very industrious player knows the units and firepower potential .. then there are variables some of which cannot be known like enemy disruption but also includes variables like leadership that you can see a (+) (-)
what ever that means [8D] and supply (-) . which is pretty clear you are getting the advantage or are in deep trouble ..but you can't calculate how much (for the enemy) ..

So .. it is clear that units got caught in move mode and firepower effects were enhanced (see the casualties) as well as firepower reduced
now these units are out of move mode they still have X% disruption .. the disabled squads can be reasonably calculated...

Now the bold move is to shock![X(] the safe move is to bombard .. rest some troops .. and reassess but not so much calculating AV but doing research in your units and the other guys understanding firepower matches ..then all the variables like experience fatigue leadership supply etc..
Is this not a great game ...

[JocMeister]

Another attack ordered at Santa Ana. Waiting for the turn...hopefully I will get it today!

[JohnDillworth]

BTW, are the additional units that you received as an invasion bonus restricted? What is their experience level? Is it growing?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

BTW, are the additional units that you received as an invasion bonus restricted? What is their experience level? Is it growing?

Almost everything that arrived was perma restricted sadly. One nice Canadian Tank BDE could be bought out though! 100 Mediums and 50 lights. Not too bad. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]19th February -43[/font]
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Turn starts with a nice sub attack. I rarely get anything off and even less rarely hit something and it explodes. So this was a nice surprise.

Is this the KB oilers?

Sub attack near Dadjangas at 79,94

Japanese Ships
AO Shiriya, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AO Shiretoko
AO Hayamoto
TK San Ramon Maru
TK Ogura Maru #2
TK Nitiei Maru
PB Nishho Maru

Allied Ships
SS Tambor

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Santa Ana[/font]
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Some DDs have been bombarding with pretty good results considering they are...well DDs!

Night Naval bombardment of Santa Ana at 226,76

Allied Ships
DD Chew
DD Ward
DD Hull
DD Dewey
DD Worden
DD Monaghan
DD Phelps
DD Strong

Japanese ground losses:
304 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Second attack goes well. Getting units destroyed is never a good sign. Also not the h

Ground combat at Santa Ana (226,76)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 93368 troops, 1755 guns, 4353 vehicles, Assault Value = 3786

Defending force 118821 troops, 1525 guns, 1436 vehicles, Assault Value = 2861

Allied adjusted assault: 1329

Japanese adjusted defense: 923

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3259 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 176 disabled
Non Combat: 94 destroyed, 90 disabled
Engineers: 6 destroyed, 29 disabled
Guns lost 181 (16 destroyed, 165 disabled)
Vehicles lost 240 (106 destroyed, 134 disabled)
Units destroyed 2

Allied ground losses:
2079 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 248 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 46 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 31 disabled
Guns lost 97 (16 destroyed, 81 disabled)
Vehicles lost 268 (50 destroyed, 218 disabled)

Troops will need to rest for 2-3 turns to recover disruption. In the meantime the arty that just arrived will keep the defenders occupied.

Have to stand down the bombers now though. Flak is just absolutely murderous. Losing 5-15 bombers per turn now. Can´t afford that. Better to save them for somewhere else. In fact many of them will start shipping out to SOPAC and India now.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"]19th February -43[/font]
_____________________________________________________________________________

Turn starts with a nice sub attack. I rarely get anything off and even less rarely hit something and it explodes. So this was a nice surprise.

Is this the KB oilers?

Sub attack near Dadjangas at 79,94

Japanese Ships
AO Shiriya, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
AO Shiretoko
AO Hayamoto
TK San Ramon Maru
TK Ogura Maru #2
TK Nitiei Maru
PB Nishho Maru

Allied Ships
SS Tambor

The slow and weak escort and the tankers suggest this is just a fuel convoy for the HI. Not fast enough to stay near KB.

[Lokasenna]

With a PB in the TF (max speed 14), no that is not the KB oiler TF.

[BattleMoose]

Just caught up with this AAR and what a treat it was! It was really cool to see a Japanese player to attempt it and make a serious bid at it too. It makes me wonder if a WC gambit is even possible, he seemed seriously dedicated to it and still couldn't get through.

[Anachro]

I think it's possible in '42. Also perhaps possible in early '43, but would require surprise and an Allied player who fails to build up defenses on the WC.

[Crackaces]

The WC attack added a lot of drama to this game .. but in my opinion the previous players assault on Pearl Harbor sealed the IJ's fate in 1945
want an example? .. PzB's AAR vs Andy Mac

Now that the IJ have much of their ground units that would be counterattacking in 1943 -1944 in an enclave set to die ...
the stage is set for Allies to own he IJ .

The winning strategy is a defense in depth ...

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

With a PB in the TF (max speed 14), no that is not the KB oiler TF.

Ah, well that is a shame...1 AO down though! [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BattleMoose

Just caught up with this AAR and what a treat it was! It was really cool to see a Japanese player to attempt it and make a serious bid at it too. It makes me wonder if a WC gambit is even possible, he seemed seriously dedicated to it and still couldn't get through.

Thanks! Glad you enjoy it. [:)]

IMO I don´t think its possible. Even if Nick had gone straight for the WC after he took Coal Harbor the emergency reinforcements are just too strong to overcome. Maybe a raid to sack some of the industry might work but I´m not sure it would work.

I share Crackaces thoughts on this. Going for PH and/or WC is IMO not the best of moves. The investments just doesn´t pay enough. Especially considering it will be on the expense of pretty much everything else. Even if Jeff had successfully raided SD or even LA for that matter he would still have to deal with the fact that the Allies are on the doorstep to the DEI in early 43.

Also worth to note here is that the Japanese losses suffered in taking PH is not insignificant from a AV perspective. Ship and plane losses added up to a LOT of allied VPs.

[Canoerebel]

Pearl Harbor may not have been worth it for Jeff, but that doesn't mean it's never worth it. I've seen experienced Japanese players take it quickly, efficiently and at modest cost. (I'm going from very old memory here, but John III vs. NYGiants is a good example, IIRC.)

Taken the right way and under the right conditions, an early Japanese conquest of Hawaii might well be beneficial in a campaign to achieve AV through an early attack on the West Coast.

Some very bright Forumites have discussed, at length and many years ago, ways in which a West Coast gambit, or modified versions, could harvest the points necessary to achieve AV. Also, there have been other ideas, such as attacking industry to ruin CVE production (Portland!) or 4EB production, which may have merit on their own, apart from auto victory considerations.

Unless an Alied player is very, very negligent, I do think a West Coast gambit needs to happen early, before forts are built up.

A later WC gambit might be successful against a less attentive or experienced player, but Jocke's commendable attention to fort-building and garrisoning doomed Jeff in this case, I believe.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Pearl Harbor may not have been worth it for Jeff, but that doesn't mean it's never worth it. I've seen experienced Japanese players take it quickly, efficiently and at modest cost. (I'm going from very old memory here, but John III vs. NYGiants is a good example, IIRC.)

Taken the right way and under the right conditions, an early Japanese conquest of Hawaii might well be beneficial in a campaign to achieve AV through an early attack on the West Coast.

Some very bright Forumites have discussed, at length and many years ago, ways in which a West Coast gambit, or modified versions, could harvest the points necessary to achieve AV. Also, there have been other ideas, such as attacking industry to ruin CVE production (Portland!) or 4EB production, which may have merit on their own, apart from auto victory considerations.

Unless an Alied player is very, very negligent, I do think a West Coast gambit needs to happen early, before forts are built up.

A later WC gambit might be successful against a less attentive or experienced player, but Jocke's commendable attention to fort-building and garrisoning doomed Jeff in this case, I believe.

I think the lesson is .. the AFB's must build up the west coast and protect very key landing points ..
especially with Scenario #2 .. and look alike options .. The other lesson is for the IJ .. if a DBB scenario
build up the DEI with supplies and build up a defensive line before foraying into the deep pits of allied controlled territory
else a quick taking of just a few key bases will endanger the lifeblood of the IJN ..

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Pearl Harbor may not have been worth it for Jeff, but that doesn't mean it's never worth it. I've seen experienced Japanese players take it quickly, efficiently and at modest cost. (I'm going from very old memory here, but John III vs. NYGiants is a good example, IIRC.)

Taken the right way and under the right conditions, an early Japanese conquest of Hawaii might well be beneficial in a campaign to achieve AV through an early attack on the West Coast.

Some very bright Forumites have discussed, at length and many years ago, ways in which a West Coast gambit, or modified versions, could harvest the points necessary to achieve AV. Also, there have been other ideas, such as attacking industry to ruin CVE production (Portland!) or 4EB production, which may have merit on their own, apart from auto victory considerations.

Unless an Alied player is very, very negligent, I do think a West Coast gambit needs to happen early, before forts are built up.

A later WC gambit might be successful against a less attentive or experienced player, but Jocke's commendable attention to fort-building and garrisoning doomed Jeff in this case, I believe.

If AV is the goal attacking Hawaii is (IMHO) definitely not the best opening. The math is somewhere in this AAR but I remember getting 1k+ VPs from the Japanese attack on PH. Ships sunk by CD fire and planes lost to Allied CAP and AA while suppressing the allies on Hawaii. I´m no Japanese player but I know Nick was a very good one and I have no doubt he set it up as optimal or close to as was possible.

1k+ VPs for the allies is HUGE that early. Its 4k VPs the Japanese would have to make up somewhere else which is no small task. The amount of VPs gained by Japan wasn´t that great and if I remember correctly the net VP gain for Japan was a measly 1500 VPs. For an operation of that size I would say its a very bad deal. So a PH attack would have to be followed up by something else for it to be meaningful.

I just don´t think there is something meaningful to follow up with. There are far better targets out there which would at the very least give at least the same VPs for far lesser risk.

Also worth keeping in mind is that Jeff/Nick pretty much went all in on this OP. SOPAC, OZ and Burma are completely neglected. China is still not conquered and there are no defensive lines in place whatsoever anywhere on the map. And despite all that the WC OP STILL failed. Going absolutely all in with SCEN2 and it still failed...

If I ever play Japan I know for sure what opening I would do. This is not the one. [:)]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Pearl Harbor may not have been worth it for Jeff, but that doesn't mean it's never worth it. I've seen experienced Japanese players take it quickly, efficiently and at modest cost. (I'm going from very old memory here, but John III vs. NYGiants is a good example, IIRC.)

Taken the right way and under the right conditions, an early Japanese conquest of Hawaii might well be beneficial in a campaign to achieve AV through an early attack on the West Coast.

Some very bright Forumites have discussed, at length and many years ago, ways in which a West Coast gambit, or modified versions, could harvest the points necessary to achieve AV. Also, there have been other ideas, such as attacking industry to ruin CVE production (Portland!) or 4EB production, which may have merit on their own, apart from auto victory considerations.

Unless an Alied player is very, very negligent, I do think a West Coast gambit needs to happen early, before forts are built up.

A later WC gambit might be successful against a less attentive or experienced player, but Jocke's commendable attention to fort-building and garrisoning doomed Jeff in this case, I believe.

In the end it really comes down to whether you want to win a game or play a WWII simulation. Although, a knock out of the Allies in the early months to gain Auto Victory is in itself an admirable achievement and deserves credit, it is not what I am looking for and not what I want to commit a few years of my life to see. The outcome relies on unrealistic factors and requires pushing the edge of the game mechanics and design to get the win. I hate to say it but I would probably just terminate the game and look for another opponent regardless of the outcome of the attempt. Nothing personal, it is just not what I am looking for in WITP.

Not to say I did not enjoy reading about it. But If I want a game, I will play some Doom or Monopoly.