The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

I think so. This strategy depends on the opponent. John is prone to shoving all of his assets forward when responding to emergencies (as at Sumatra and NoPac), leaving other areas open, and then having to repeat the process repeatedly as the next emergency arises. I think that's what I'm seeing now.

Other IJ players wouldn't be given to this kind of play, so it wouldn't work against them.

[DRF99]

I see you still have some units in the wilderness of Borneo. Do they have any AV left? If John forgets to garrison a base you may be able to walk into one on the cheap.

Great game, great read, glad you restarted it.

[BBfanboy]

Canoerebel: I don't think his temerity, if that's what it is, will last much longer.

Methinks your were intending to say "timidity" . "Temerity" is a brash, daring action. Thus the use of the French version of it in the ship name "Temeraire" (there was a British ship by this name too).

[Canoerebel]

You're right, I did mean to use "timidity." Yet another reminder of why I'm glad I don't rely on word skills to make a living. [X(]

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: DRF99

I see you still have some units in the wilderness of Borneo. Do they have any AV left? If John forgets to garrison a base you may be able to walk into one on the cheap.

Great game, great read, glad you restarted it.

None of them have any power left, but they are useful in providing info as to the number of units in adjacent hexes.

A number of months back, I did have a cut-off Dutch unit in southeastern Borneo. It had a bit of combat power. So it moved to vacant Bandjermasin and took it. Thereafter, Allied subs used fuel captured at the base to replenish. John finally took it back after a couple of weeks. It wasn't a major operation, but it was fun while it lasted.

[Canoerebel]

The current strategic map shows that Big Tent is like a massive tumor in the vitals. It also shows the long line of subs moving to and from Midway from the DEI.

Allied subs are beginning to use bases closer to the DEI, and several AS are moving into position to "migrate" to the DEI when the LOC is open and "safe" for transit. Fuel may be a limiting factor, though. So Midway will continue to serve as an important sub base for a long time to come.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're right, I did mean to use "timidity." Yet another reminder of why I'm glad I don't rely on word skills to make a living. [X(]

You just have too many in your noggin, that's all. I think whiskey might cure that particular problem.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The current strategic map shows that Big Tent is like a massive tumor in the vitals. It also shows the long line of subs moving to and from Midway from the DEI.

Allied subs are beginning to use bases closer to the DEI, and several AS are moving into position to "migrate" to the DEI when the LOC is open and "safe" for transit. Fuel may be a limiting factor, though. So Midway will continue to serve as an important sub base for a long time to come.

Interesting that you put the yellow box in the upper right. I've always done the lower left.

Couldn't you move your subs to the Marshalls sometime soon? They're a hair closer than Midway... Or, with Big Tent doing its thing, Hollandia may be an option soon? Given how much he seems to be pulling out of SOPAC/SWPAC... maybe even Rabaul, which you may want to take anyway for the VPs (it would drop his denominator by several hundred)? I know you're "beyond" that point now on the map, but they're still useful places so that your subs don't get bombed at the pier.

[Mike Dubost]

If you are still thinking about future moves, let me ask if you have considered Rangoon and vicinity. If you recall, way back when, I had suggested that as a destination for "peanut", when the destination was still open for speculation.
The reasons still have some validity, I think. Admittedly, I only know what I see here, so maybe I'm missing something. However, the bonuses for success could be significant. You could trap part of the IJA in Burma, and reopen the Burma Road to reinvigorate China. You could threaten a "pincher attack" on the oil fields in the SRA.
On the other hand, we know John III still has the bases he built up for the successful effort to evict you from the DEI before. You would have to be strong enough to withstand the counterattack with the entrapped LCUs and air power brought in.
On the gripping hand, if you want to sink some of his navy, you have to bring it to battle, and invading an area where he is potentially strong, with a big prize for a victory if you win would likely do it.

EDIT: "on the gripping hand" is a reference to a science fiction novel of that name that involves aliens with 2 hands designed for fine manipulation and one real strong one for grasping items. Kind of an in-joke.

[Lokasenna]

A move on Cocos Island could be interesting [;)].

[Capt. Harlock]

I don't think his temerity, if that's what it is, will last much longer.

Actually, "temerity" means something like rashness or gall. I think that's the opposite of what's going on at the moment. Possibly you were thinking of "timorous"?

[Canoerebel]

All the places you guys are mentioning, and many others too, have merit as targets. Any Allied player could take the current situation and develop a whole new focuses of attack that would work (or at least have the promise of success). But because of my current force dispositions, it would take months to prepare to move en masse on major targets (like Burma) far away.

In in early '43, I began shifting everything that floats to the Pacific - everything. That's continuing - LSTs, DDs, CVE - everything immediately gets transferred from IO to the Pacific. For instance, HMS Battler CVE just arrived at Pearl Harbor from Aden via the Canal. That's the kind of force needed for Big Tent (and its eventual successors), both to carry the immense amount of supply and fuel needed and to beef up a fleet depleted by all the losses taken to date (both sides have lost a heckuva lot of shipping).

I am confident that Focus Pacific is a sound strategy, under the circumstances in this game, as long as I retain carrier superiority and as long as I'm able to pull off Big Tent like operations that create new fronts - not "second" fronts but rather Fronts 360.

There may come a time when places like Cocos, Port Blair, Rabaul, etc. are helpful, and I have enough assets to move on them without subtracting from the main forces, but that'll be awhile.

P.S. India and Burma are strongly defended by a very stout air force and decent armies. There will come a day when these will be used offensively.

[BBfanboy]

Then I think you will already be considering the Marcus - Daito Shoto - Okinawa axis.
It would require a considerable dent in IJN assets to pull it off, but once there he is euchred!

[Canoerebel]

Yes, that's a prime target. At this point, everything from Hokkaido to Java is under consideration. Final target selection will probably take place after Third Ring, when I have a good feel for the number of available transports, combat ships and carriers...and when I have months of SigInt revealing where John has repositioned his troops.

[Canoerebel]

12/4/43

A very good (not sexy, but good) day for the Allies. Lots of logistics progress.

Big Tent: John doesn't know it, but the campaign is going to change markedly in two days if he doesn't do something in the meantime to stop these supply efforts to Manokwari and Morotai. In two more days, those important little ops will be complete, both bases will be as secure and self-sufficient as I can make then, and I can then send Death Star elsewhere without worrying about their vulnerability short- and medium term.

Manokwari: See map for details regarding supply and reinforcement delivery here. One more day and it's set for a long, long time.

Morotai: The effort to re-supply Morotai begins tomorrow. I don't think John will take a chance of encountering Death Star, so I don't expect opposition. But I've taken steps I hope are sufficient "just in case."

Sorong: With 130k supply, 41st Infantry Div. 90% prepped, and a huge number of engineers working on airfield (currently size 4) port and forts, this base is pretty secure.

Boela: With 90k supply, 40th Infantry Div. 63% prepared, and almost as many engineers as Sorong, this base is secure.

Once the carriers finish serving as security for the resupply efforts to Morotai and Manikwari, I'll resume offensive operations. Amphibious activities in the Dobo/Saumlauki area comes first; from there, I'll either move to complete the Ambon operation or go ahead and retire to northern Oz to pick up the next wave of troop (something I can do once all the major Big Tent bases have the supply necessary to ensure security into the medium term).

John is doing a lot of work to shore up his next line of defense. He's doing sensible things from his perspective.

Eventually he will recover his equilibrium enough, and marshal his forces sufficiently, to counter attack. This could be very soon now.

But he's been unusually cautious the past ten days. This, too, makes sense, because he can't afford to suffer attrition to his combat fleet except when absolutely necessary or when a success seems highly likely. I think we're seeing an early dividend to the focus on attritioning his navy. Ordinarily, he'd have had enough combat ships to commit lots of DDs and some CLs to raiding from the Java Sea while his main fleet was concentrated somewhere in the Babeldaob area. But the Java Sea and Banda Sea have been totally quiet. I don't dare leave ships without protection, thus far there has been a freedom to move about to an extent that is unusual, especially against an aggressive player like John.

Early on, he told me this would be "Sumatra '43." That was mainly bluster meant to intimidate (mind games), but it rang utterly hollow. And that's proven to be the case.

[Canoerebel]

Transports with 385k of supply are still waiting to be unloaded at Boela. Of that amount, probably 50k-100k will go to Boela. Smaller amounts (10k or so) will go to key secondary bases like Babo, Dobo, Lobaloto, and Sansaport. Biak should get 25k or so.

[BBfanboy]

I take it that you are still using LCT barges to move supply to smaller bases?

[Canoerebel]

I'm using LCI, LST and barges in the distribution effort, but the big bases have been getting lots of big ships.

Most of the 385K is aboard xAK disbanded in my big ports, waiting for the bases to grow enough to hold bigger quantities of supply. Obviously, protecting those ships and the ports they are in is a high priority. But I've made big progress in getting supply distributed the past few days. Lots to go, though.

[Crackaces]

I think the DEI situation is dramatically changed with the DBB base scenarios. Although I understand Canoerebel Festung Palembang was at the root of the production of supply from refining .. the whole supply situation in the DEI is changed,. In my opinion much more complicated for the IJ.
Personally I would not think of a DEI attack route as the Allies in a stock scenario .. but 3 recent blogs have shown me a subtle consequence of not devoting IJ shipping to bring supplies to the DEI in DBB rooted games.

What Canoerebel is doing in terms of supply is what the IJ needed to be doing rather than running around getting their capital ships a good inside washout .. [8D]

[Canoerebel]

John is chomping at the bit to get to this turn when he gets off from work. And he's been much more engaged the past few days. So I think something's up.

I'm scouring the map looking for signs of danger. Nothing is readily apparent, though KB can spring in from quite a distance.

My best guess is that he thinks Death Star is heading east along New Guinea's northern coast, into waters where he might think he has a crack at doing something.