The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[bradfordkay]

What do you estimate that he can bring up in the way of number of fleet carriers? How does that compare to what you have in the Death Star?

[Canoerebel]

Death Star has 1,260 aircraft. I don't think KB can have that many - probably somewhere around 70% to 80% - but John will try to augment with LBA if possible. That's just a guess, as he has had time for some carriers to repair after the great Naval Battle of Wake Island in September, but less Junyo, which ate two torpedoes a week ago.

I think he's a bit tentative after KB lost lots of strike aircraft two weeks back. But I still try to keep him guessing by taking unexpected turns, like tomorrow. I'm not looking for a carrier battle right now - protection for supply distribution is a higher priority - but I'm not afraid of one either.

Allied carriers are fully replenished and flush with aircraft. The Hellcat and Corsair squadrons have high-experience pilots. Things can go wrong - weird weather, the 8-hex issue, bad luck - but I'm pretty willing to go to war with these fellas.

[Canoerebel]

12/5/43

Big Tent: Another day devoted to logistics - mainly supply distribution to the key forward bases (see map). Tomorrow (or, at latest, the day after), Death Star will be detached from this duty. At that point, all the highest value ships (APA, AKA, AK) will have completed their parts in this mission. I'll still be delivery supply by xAK (and a few troops by xAP), but those ships will be left mostly unprotected, relying on John's uncertainty. He'll probably strike at them eventually, sinking a handful. But time is more critical than mostly empty xAKs at this point.

Allied ASW sank a IJ sub at Morotai (confirmed sinking sounds). This port is fully mined now.

I'm anxious to wrap up supply delivery so that Death Star and troops can resume offensive missions to secure the LOC to Oz. That's the next op.

[Flicker]

Consistent with your ploy of consuming IJN fuel, targets like New Guineau / Rabaul / New Caledonia / Saipan / Alaska or others are 'far away with no fuel supply generating' areas. Would John sortie KB for those areas?

Soerabaja, Balikpapan, and Tarakan should be major targets in a blood for oil strategy, and until taken, those bases provide refueling for the IJN. However there are other bases that provide refueling in that theater (which kind of shorten his LOC - Soerabaja, North Borneo, Singers). So, it seems you are limited in your running him around options to South Pacific, Central Pacific, and North Pacific. My guess is that your next operation could be named 'Rabbit Hole' - and it will be someplace where KB will be compelled to sortie (and suffer losses); someplace with limited LBA; and perhaps even someplace of questionable value except for getting KB to sortie.

That said, I hope you're preparing for Soerabaja / Balikpapan / Tarakan. Or Formosa.

[Canoerebel]

Everything from NoPac to Java is on the table. I already have preferences, but I haven't begun prepping troops yet. There's too much time before such an op could conceivably begin; too many elements of information yet to be gathered. The soonest that operation could begin is probably April '44. My short-term planning is definite; medium-term planning is underway; long-term planning is in the earliest stages:

I. Short Term
1. finish supply distribution and base building
2. take Dobo, Saumlauki, Damar and other unoccupied bases on my LOC
3. Pick up reinforcing troops (and certain amphibious troops) at Normanton
4. amphibious op to take Merauke (and possibly Horn Island during this phase)
5. complete conquest of Ambon
6. select combat ships and supply ships to remain in the DEI to "protect my turf"
7. the balance of the herd retires to Oz (possibly Horn Island is invaded during this phase; possibly PM also)

II. Medium Term
1. the herd replenishes at a friendly port
2. the herd begins the move to return to Pearl Harbor
3. possible amphibious ops en route to help start a new LOC - Luganville is likely; Milne Bay is possible; a dot hex or two for float planes
4. if KB shows up somewhere far, far away, amphibious ops to take Eniwetok and Taongi (dot hex nearby)
5. final selection of next big op should be taking place about the time the herd heads for Pearl as I don't want to tarry there too long - I'll need to create pressure as soon as possible in the interest of not letting John focus too long on the Big Tent area; also, troop preparation should be advancing
6. selection of ships and transports for next big op; do I need to leave any carriers behind to upgrade or to repair damage; how quickly can the herd turn around and head out again (I'm guessing less than a month); Pearl is serving as a rendezvous point for reinforcements inbound; currently there are six carriers and three BBs there; Intrepid will be on hand in a month; etc.
7. the next op will carry more supply, and much more fuel, than Big Tent; do I have enough in stock at Pearl to handle this? (at the moment, no, so I'm working on that)

III. Long Term
1. The next big op (yet to be named) gets underway
2. Certain targets will be invaded en route (just as Big Tent involved the invasion of Satawal as a PBY base and contemplated the invasion of Wolei); nav search in Indian country is necessary
3. The next big op arrives at targets
a. to what extent are those targets within range of LBA from Big Tent or Midway or China?
b. will B29s be available then? If so, am I within range of Japanese Home Island industry? If not, what are the primary targets?
4. the next big op will probably take into the autumn months; what comes after that; what is the end game?

[Canoerebel]

Do AEs replenish at sea commencing in 1944, or is it 1945?

That will be an important consideration for the next big op.

[Flicker]

1 JAN 1945

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[bradfordkay]

Another question for you Dan: you have brought a lot of fighters into those forward bases. Did you bring the same amount of air support or are you running more a/c in each base than you have air support available? If the latter, how well has that been working out for you (do you have lots of a/c down waiting to be maintained)?

[Canoerebel]

That's a balancing act, isn't it? I want as many fighters as possible, but drastically overloading bases isn't efficient. (I've been waging that war in the Marshalls for months, rather unsuccessfully.)

At the moment, I think I'm going to have an adequate amount of base force av support once the main airfields (especially Boela and Sorong) reach level five or six.

Sorong has 400 av support and 240 aircraft, so it's overloaded as a level four field (it'll go to level five in less than a week). Boela is a level three field at the moment with 150 av support and 213 aircraft. So it's overloaded too. Morotai and Manikwari have smaller base forces and far less aircraft - neither is currently over stacked.

Waiting at Normanton, Australia, are a lot of base forces; 714 av support, in fact; at least 500 of that is available to reinforce Big Tent, either to beef up existing bases or for new fields that I plan to acquire in the near future.

Right now, most of the aircraft in Big Tent are defensive - fighters, ASW, and patrols to yell, "Watch out! Here comes KB!" But I have enough dive bombers and Beauforts to do some damage if John gets careless.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

All the places you guys are mentioning, and many others too, have merit as targets. Any Allied player could take the current situation and develop a whole new focuses of attack that would work (or at least have the promise of success). But because of my current force dispositions, it would take months to prepare to move en masse on major targets (like Burma) far away.

In in early '43, I began shifting everything that floats to the Pacific - everything. That's continuing - LSTs, DDs, CVE - everything immediately gets transferred from IO to the Pacific. For instance, HMS Battler CVE just arrived at Pearl Harbor from Aden via the Canal. That's the kind of force needed for Big Tent (and its eventual successors), both to carry the immense amount of supply and fuel needed and to beef up a fleet depleted by all the losses taken to date (both sides have lost a heckuva lot of shipping).

I am confident that Focus Pacific is a sound strategy, under the circumstances in this game, as long as I retain carrier superiority and as long as I'm able to pull off Big Tent like operations that create new fronts - not "second" fronts but rather Fronts 360.

There may come a time when places like Cocos, Port Blair, Rabaul, etc. are helpful, and I have enough assets to move on them without subtracting from the main forces, but that'll be awhile.

P.S. India and Burma are strongly defended by a very stout air force and decent armies. There will come a day when these will be used offensively.

Agree. With carrier superiority, why avoid the central Pacific when his only real option there is to use his fleet? Of course the PI is soooo close by. I bypassed the PI in my last campaign. Now, I think it would be fun to try it. Just to see what happens.

[Canoerebel]

12/6/43

Big Tent: No incursions by the enemy, so logistical progress continues. I think the map covers most of the key developments, so I'll leave it to that for now.

[Canoerebel]

12/7/43

Big Tent: The operation to attend to supply to Morotai and Manokwari is complete. I had anticipated encountering resistance in the form of enemy DD TFs or other perils, but everything went smoothly. Supply levels are sufficient to allow Death Star to stand down from defensive missions, as I'll now move on to a series of offensive ops in the Banda Sea and Gulf of Carpenteria.

See map for further details.

[Crackaces]

I believe He has to guard against you taking Davao or you will have one half of the DEI sealed .. "big cancerous tumor" is a great metaphor in my opinion for Big Tent
Any thoughts for some pressure in Burma? At least building up the dot bases on the boarder for a future assault?

[Canoerebel]

I've built up all my bases in the Assam and vicinity, from Ramree Island to Ledo. I have lots of big airfields, lots of base forces, and lots of fighters and bombers with highly trained pilots. They will go into action sooner rather than later.

I do not foresee any ground offensive in Burma in the short term. But once the bombing campaign is under way, I'll re-evaluate. If John doesn't shift enough fighters over hear, I may be able to pummel my way through his defenses. If that kind of environment develops, I'll consider going on the offensive.

As for China, I don't want to do anything to arouse John's curiosity right now. His troops are where I want them.

In the DEI, I don't think John will interfere with the Dobo/Saumlauki/Babar operations upcoming - I think (just THINK) that he won't have his forces configured yet. But, by the time I return to attend to Ambon, I think he will have his forces configured to attack. This is okay by me. I'd really, really, really like a crack at further whittling the Kaigun in a neutral or friendly area before Death Star retires back into the Pacific.

[Canoerebel]

I just completed a more thorough inventory of the supply and fuel remaining aboard transports:
1. Supply = 380,000
2. Fuel = 250,000

Most TFs are refueled. All combat vessels and carriers are 100% ready for battle. Most of my carriers have no more than 1 SYS damage. All carrier aircraft squadrons have 100% aircraft.

Meaning, Death Star can remain in theater for a long time - long enough to attend to business (taking new bases) while hoping to lure/entice/persuade John to give battle under somewhat favorable conditions.

[Crackaces]

I've built up all my bases in the Assam and vicinity, from Ramree Island to Ledo

Holy crap! You still own Ramree Island!!![X(][&o][&o]

(For those that are new to this game .. Ramree Island, an alligator infested swamp, propagates supply through to Rangoon up through the Irrawaddy Valley ..
No need to have multiple border bases built to propagate supply though the jungle ..)

I supposed anytime John over-reacts you can press this front ... [;)]

[Canoerebel]

12/8/43

Big Tent: The reinforcing invasion of Dobo will take place tomorrow, as the amphibs and Death Star took their respective positions nearby. The landings will be preceded by a large bombardment. I already have 70 AV ashore (Canadian brigade) and John has about an equal amount in fragments. I'm landing with 2nd Marine Div. 0% prepped on the belief that it will be sufficient to overwhelm the enemy force there, removing an obstacle. (I noted Lokasenna's comment in another AAR that he would NEVER land a Marine division at less than 50% prep; I understand what he means, but I definitely think there are situations where it's worth doing so; 2nd Marine Div. has an unusual role in Big Tent, both now and later, that makes this use worthwhile, IMO).

Death Star bleedover CAP handled some Helens inbound to Dobo from Darwin. This is the only indication John got as to Death Star's locations, as NavSearch for both sides essentially didn't exist this turn; bad weather, I suppose.

John massed Helens and Bettys escorted by Georges, I think from Milne Bay, to hit Cooktown airfield. He did minimal damage while Allied CAP effectively protected the base.

Boela airfield to level four today; Morotai's to level two.

[Flicker]

Pleased that y'all are (seemingly) flipping turns.

What does John have at Darwin? PM Curtin wants to know

[ny59giants]

Depending on the 'dice gods' I could see 2nd Marines getting totally trashed landing without any prep and being useless for the next few months. Just a warning "IF" it happens.

[Canoerebel]

Darwin has about 8k troops; it's a level four airfield; it's been fairly strongly garrisoned since John took it, so I'd expect forts to be high. I don't have any intentions of taking the base in the near or even medium turn. I think it'll be outflanked and fairly useless to John.

Gove, the mainland Oz base SE of Darin (about eight hexes distant) is an interesting base. It's a level five field but a level zero port. It is located in a place that could make it problematic. I don't think it's strongly garrisoned. I do plan to sniff it out and take it by force.

Wessel, the island-base near Gove, isn't strongly garrisoned, I think.

Merauke has 12k troops, but I think it's out of supply. I don't think John built the forts big before Big Tent arrived at his doorstep. A division is prepping for the base and I am somewhat confident of my ability to reduce this base pretty quickly.

Horn Island has more than 10k troops. I think this was a linchpin of John's defenses. I think it has a coastal defense unit and probably lots of forts. I've been bombing it daily for a month now, and I think John is having supply problems there. I have a division fully prepped for it. I hope that by the time I'm ready to move on this base (probably three or four weeks away), it's supply situation will be so bad that it will no longer be a tough not to crack. Once Merauke falls it will be essentially impossible for John to get supply to Horn except by sup or air transport.