The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
Depending on the 'dice gods' I could see 2nd Marines getting totally trashed landing without any prep and being useless for the next few months. Just a warning "IF" it happens.

My money is on 2nd Marines doing their assigned job commendably.

[Simonsez]

Didn't you just trash some other Marines at Noumea with a zero or low prep landing? You know the saying, doing the same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity.... Good Luck! [X(]

[Canoerebel]

Very different conditions at Namlea. I had two Marine regiments with 40% experience and severe disruption. At Dobo, the Marines have pretty good experience and no disruption.

I could be wrong about this, but I'm playing a hunch. More importantly, this unit isn't slated for some other op right now (and wouldn't have the prep needed for anything else anyway - it's prepped for Truk), so I'm not wasting an asset on a useless mission. I'm pretty confident that the combination of the Canadian brigade, the Marines, and a strong bombardment or two will be sufficient for the task.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Very different conditions at Namlea. I had two Marine regiments with 40% experience and severe disruption. At Dobo, the Marines have pretty good experience and no disruption.

I could be wrong about this, but I'm playing a hunch. More importantly, this unit isn't slated for some other op right now (and wouldn't have the prep needed for anything else anyway - it's prepped for Truk), so I'm not wasting an asset on a useless mission. I'm pretty confident that the combination of the Canadian brigade, the Marines, and a strong bombardment or two will be sufficient for the task.

The fact that you already have troops ashore gives you a bridgehead which will minimize the effects of enemy fire against the invasion. The big question is the losses in the surf. May the weather gods and the die rolls be with you!

BTW - that bombing raid on Townsville makes me wonder if John is planning a counter-invasion somewhere down there ...

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Darwin has about 8k troops; it's a level four airfield; it's been fairly strongly garrisoned since John took it, so I'd expect forts to be high. I don't have any intentions of taking the base in the near or even medium turn. I think it'll be outflanked and fairly useless to John.

Gove, the mainland Oz base SE of Darin (about eight hexes distant) is an interesting base. It's a level five field but a level zero port. It is located in a place that could make it problematic. I don't think it's strongly garrisoned. I do plan to sniff it out and take it by force.

Wessel, the island-base near Gove, isn't strongly garrisoned, I think.

Merauke has 12k troops, but I think it's out of supply. I don't think John built the forts big before Big Tent arrived at his doorstep. A division is prepping for the base and I am somewhat confident of my ability to reduce this base pretty quickly.

Horn Island has more than 10k troops. I think this was a linchpin of John's defenses. I think it has a coastal defense unit and probably lots of forts. I've been bombing it daily for a month now, and I think John is having supply problems there. I have a division fully prepped for it. I hope that by the time I'm ready to move on this base (probably three or four weeks away), it's supply situation will be so bad that it will no longer be a tough not to crack. Once Merauke falls it will be essentially impossible for John to get supply to Horn except by sup or air transport.

In these circumstances, Wessel is the superior base.

[Canoerebel]

John has been actively reconning bases in NE Oz. In particular, he's been reconning Coen, and landlocked base between Portland Roads and Cooktown. I don't know why that base would interest him.

There's no way John would invade NE Oz. I mean: why? He could gang up on a base and take it, I suppose, but he'd be landing amidst multiple very large Allied airfields. Cairns and Townsville are very heavily garrisoned.

But there is one thing that makes sense: a paratroop assault on Cooktown, which has just 6 AV behind three forts. I have 70 aircraft there, many of them 4EB. So, if John doesn't para-assault next run, I need to move the aircraft out until getting a few more troops there.

I've left some decent ships at Townsville hoping to draw KB on a raid. At the moment, the base is not adequately defended by fighters to bleed KB enough to make the sacrifice worthwhile for me. (I've just moved out a bunch of fighters to Big Tent, with three big fighter groups about to come in as replacements). Townsville currently has about 100 fighters, with 25 to arrive day after tomorrow and 25 more the day after.

[Canoerebel]

I'm awaiting the next turn anxiously. It's late enough now that I don't expect it until tomorrow. So I want to share with you ahead of time, before the results are in, about two decisions I made: one good, one bad.

1. Good decision: No matter what happens with the reinforcing landings at Dobo tomorrow, I'm satisfied that sending in an completely unprepped Marine division was a good call. Even if it turns out bad, I think it was a good decision.

2. Bad decision: Even if KB doesn't show up and launch a massive attack against unprotected CVEs and BBs at Townsville tomorrow, I misplayed this situation. I have anticipated the possibility of a carrier strike (as noted repeatedly in here) and hoped to entice John a bit by leaving some juicy bate out there. I don't mind losing some of the bate if, in doing so, Allied CAP takes a heavy toll on John's strike aircraft, leaving KB weaker and way out of position to intervene in the DEI for at least 10 days. So far, so good. But over the last few days, I've had tunnel vision. I've been concerned foremost about the security of all the ships delivering supply to the most exposed bases in the DEI. So I drew down NE Oz CAP to reinforce those bases. I beefed up Townsville's CAP this morning with what I had in range; it now has 130 fighters with 25 P47s a day away. But now that Big Tent's supply missions have been completed, I should have drawn down some of the Big Tent fighter squadrons to beef up northern Oz again.

I don't think KB will actually show up tomorrow. If it doesn't, I'll be able to rectify my tunnel vision. But this was nevertheless a mistake on my part. I just hope I don't pay for it.

But Dobo? I'm all in.

[JohnDillworth]

Holy crap! You still own Ramree Island!!!

(For those that are new to this game .. Ramree Island, an alligator infested swamp, propagates supply through to Rangoon up through the Irrawaddy Valley ..
No need to have multiple border bases built to propagate supply though the jungle ..)

Can you supply China from Ramree valley if you clear the rest of the valley or do you need the bigger ports around Rangoon?

[Canoerebel]

If I clear the valley, I have some hope that Ramree and Akyab supply will flow to China. Both bases are built very large and have sizeable stockpiles of supply awaiting a chance to send it inland.

In a month, I plan to used massed bombers to take out Magwe's oil production and (hopefully) bludgeon enemy troops in upper Burma. I do not plan to make a campaign for Rangoon. At this point, I don't care about lower Burma, Thailand, etc. because I don't have the resources to make a move in that direction. But I do want to send supply and some troops to China in preparation for offensive activity in 1944.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If I clear the valley, I have some hope that Ramree and Akyab supply will flow to China. Both bases are built very large and have sizeable stockpiles of supply awaiting a chance to send it inland.

In a month, I plan to used massed bombers to take out Magwe's oil production and (hopefully) bludgeon enemy troops in upper Burma. I do not plan to make a campaign for Rangoon. At this point, I don't care about lower Burma, Thailand, etc. because I don't have the resources to make a move in that direction. But I do want to send supply and some troops to China in preparation for offensive activity in 1944.

Ramree should flow very well. Akyab, not really so well. Ramree seemed to be the key for me last game.

[Canoerebel]

12/09/43

Big Tent: The thing I most worried about didn't happen; the thing I had a good hunch about turned out not as good as I had "hunched."

Your instincts were closer to the target than were mine. 2nd Marine Division landed at Dabo in a single phase (lots of APA and AK, because those ships, now empty, will be used to haul reinforcements from Oz). The pre-landing BB bombardment didn't have a marked effect. Disablements were high (about 45%, I think). Fatigue and disruption are minimal. The division has about 210 AV and will shock attack tomorrow, as will 16th Canadian Brigade (it was already ashore) with 70 AV. The defense has less than 50 AV and few if any forts, so the attack should succeed.

With the Marines pretty disabled, I'm going to opt out of the plan of awaiting the fall of Dobo, splitting the unit, and then invading nearby vacant bases. Instead, Death Star and plentiful transports are moving immediately to Normanton, Oz, to pick up reinforcing troops (including a good infantry unit with high prep for Saumlaki).

The heart of the Big Tent AOO wasn't molested today. Base building continues to go well.

John is focused on NE Oz in a big way. Massed Helens and Bettys from New Guinea hammered Portland Roads airfield, destroying 18 Banshees and a handful of reconnaissance aircraft. I'm giving him some open targets for a few more days while I concentrate on beefing up Townsville's CAP. John's patrols are working Townsville pretty hard. He knows what's there (three CVE, two BBs, a few cruisers). I now have about 225 fighters at the base (include carrier compliments). Seventy more will arrive day after tomorrow. Once I feel like the ships are secure from a KB raid, I'll work on contesting his sudden air raids.

The air raids themselves aren't a real threat to Allied security. What I think would be a clever plan is if John is trying to draw my CAP north out of Townsville so that he can hit the capital ships there.

And I do want him to strike! I'm offering him some legit bait - I know he has to be salivating over a chance to whittle down my carrier numbers a bit, to make the carrier disparity a bit lower. I would willingly sacrifice the carriers if, in return, he lost 150+ carrier aircraft, neutering KB for awhile and leaving it out of position. I don't think he'll take the bait, but let's see.

While all this is going on, a mighty fleet, army and supply depot is in the early stages of gathering at Pearl Harbor. This concentration isn't moving forward until Death Star returns, but planning is underway.

[Canoerebel]

Here are the troops attacking at Dobo tomorrow (just a tad bit stronger than stated in preceding post).

[Canoerebel]

2nd Marine Division after unloading in one phase without any real opposition. The only thing the unit didn't have going for it was its lack of preparation. But I think it's strong enough to overwhelm the enemy garrison.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Holy crap! You still own Ramree Island!!!

(For those that are new to this game .. Ramree Island, an alligator infested swamp, propagates supply through to Rangoon up through the Irrawaddy Valley ..
No need to have multiple border bases built to propagate supply though the jungle ..)

Can you supply China from Ramree valley if you clear the rest of the valley or do you need the bigger ports around Rangoon?

Rangoon and a clear path along the Burma Road gives China the extra 500 supply daily (which does not come out of your stocks), but all other supply flow to China is normal.

The Rangoon - Kunming route is the best supply flow because of the rail line and good road the entire distance and because Rangoon is a major port that can accumulate a lot of supply. IMO the big problem is clearing the Burma Road in the mountains, if the IJA wants to contest it.

The other routes from Ramree and from India- Imphal area to central Burma take some time to accumulate supply but once it reaches central Burma there are good road and rail links to move it around.

So if the aim is to get supply to flow to China, you can't get away with just taking Rangoon or Ramree and everything will be cool - you need a clear path all the way to Kunming and beyond. If you have moved some of the Chinese corps to India and let them upgrade, train and build large they can grind out the path to China with just a bit of armour/FA/AAA help. The Chinese losses can be made up much more easily than British and Indian ones.

[Canoerebel]

Burma '44 has two objectives: (1) Begin an air war strong enough to draw some of John's air force; and (2) open the supply line to China to get some troops and some supply overland.

I think the Allies have enough air power to make John uncomfortable in Burma. If that's true, opening the road to China should be a reasonable objective. My troops are massing in the jungle hexes just inland from Ramree/Akyab. They'll move into the valley. If my air force can protect them from enemy bombers while my bombers mess up John's ground troops, then his line in middle and upper Burma should become vulnerable.

[Canoerebel]

Ignore this post. It was posted entirely in error. It was a major gaffe on the part of the rear echelon. It devolved into ignoble enterprises best reserved for the ministry of the flamboyant. It was not designed to pontificate, stultify or make the draconian simple. Do not fear that you have missed something pusillanimous yet soothing. It is not yet fungible.

[Canoerebel]

I think John's mostly stood down his NavSearch, having grown tired of losing 5 to 10 search aircraft to Allied CAP every day. Nevertheless, he has a solid idea as to Death Star's location, since my bleedover CAP keeps responding to enemy raids in the Dobo region.

By tomorrow, he should be aware that Death Star is suddenly moving towards the Gulf of Carpenteria or Horn Island. How does he react? Does he ramp up operations in the Big Tent Area of Operations? Does he get frisky there? And does he see an opportunity to strike at Death Star, using his fields at Gove, Darwin and (if they have any supply left) Merauke and Horn Island? Is KB loitering in the Milne Bay area? (I have not idea if it is, but that's where I'd predict John would have it given the bait dangling at Townsville.)

I'm expecting a nice, placid voyage to Normanton to pick up troops. But that doesn't necessarily mean it will be placid.

Turn off to John.

[BBfanboy]

Interesting situation - this is John's golden opportunity to use massive LBA Nettie/Jill/Kate/Judy strikes in combination with KB's own aircraft to try and neutralize DS. At the beginning of this game I am sure he would have jumped at this opportunity, but he has been burned a few times by your thorough countermeasures so I am betting he demurs.

[Crackaces]

One thing also .. build up Alice Springs and start marching toward Darwin building up bases using transport planes does eventually work.
In the end supplies will propagate toward Darwin and in significant amounts once the bases in between are built ..

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

One thing also .. build up Alice Springs and start marching toward Darwin building up bases using transport planes does eventually work.
In the end supplies will propagate toward Darwin and in significant amounts once the bases in between are built ..

Moving a command HQ to the base after the rail head...Daly Waters, I believe, will also help to pull more supply from the rail head.