The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Keeping track of Big Tent/Third Ring Fuel and Supply:

1. Fuel: Boela ships have 105k to unload; 75k is aboard xAKs inbound from Cooktown; AOs with Death Star have 20k remaining; Boela itself has 7k; and Normanton will draw some from Oz in a pinch. Total reserves approximately 207k. Most combat and carrier TFs just topped off. There should be enough fuel to permit ops in Big Tent for another month, primarily dealing with Merauke and Ambon and then, during egress, with Horn Island. I'll need to leave some fuel behind for combat ships and other shipping that will remain with Big Tent. Conclusion: fuel stores are okay, but bear monitoring.

2. Supply: 240k remains aboard ships at Boela. Boela has 110k; Sorong 170k; Manokwari 38k; Morotai 48k; all other bases have lesser amounts (some - especially Ambon - will require a decent amount; Merauka-bound ships are carrying enough to stock that base, once taken). Sorong no longer has a supply limit, and Boela won't fairly soon. Once Death Star returns, supply distribution will recommence. I think it can be wrapped up in a week to ten days. I'll leave some supply aboard ships at Boela to meet emergency future needs. Conclusion: supply distribution won't take very long.

3. Bases: the primary remaining mission is to take Ambon.

4. Conclusion: if John doesn't slow down the tempo, Big Tent is definitely on schedule to wrap up in January; if he does attack, there's the opportunity to attrition Kaigun. How to entice him to attack? Planning is in progress.

[Lokasenna]

Man, talk about an Allied wet dream of a unit. 432 Naval Support!

[Crackaces]

I think earlier there was a posting discouraging shock attacks. Besides the mandatory conditions .. I can think of at least one reason to shock. Giving blood for time. Given an adequate firepower or AV advantage, Some certain advantage exists, especially combinations of disruption, supply, leadership, movement mode etc and those conditions might be fleeting.
So the idea is maximizing a shock(+) advantage against one or more disadvantages that will/might be changing with time. Certainly the casualties will be higher but with enough advantages it can be devastating turning a possibly defensible position with simple combat rolls into a rout ..with a higher loss to the attacker ..

One other observation at this point in this game .. I have no clue about the OOB for the I but it has been mentioned that the IJ get more "toys" in 1944 ... I might propose given John's ADHD and propensity to chase shiny objects .. this might be an ironic petard to fall on ...
My experience with just scenario ones toys (forget the IJN wet dream) is that the IJ begins to think about rationing fuel between production and using the navy to project power sometime in 1944 .. more toys means more fuel expenditure .. I might even suggest that CanoeRebel's push into the DEI sets an earlier date for this crucial decision.
More (naval) toys and less fuel what a sudden and I feel certain destiny very soon given this particular scenario ...

[Canoerebel]

12/26/43

Third Ring: Sometimes when I encounter reams of information in running a turn, I'm uncertain about what to do next and tentative in issuing orders. At other times, an inspiration strikes; a plan comes together; and issuing the orders is easy. That doesn't mean the plan is the right one, only that it seems "right" at the time. Such was the case with this turn. Tons of information. Lots to process. But I quickly happened upon a plan that I like.

The turn began with this email message from John: "Looks like Christmas (for one side or the other) might come just a day or two late. The truly sad part about this moment is that I have to work all day.  The next few turns might be quite fun Mr. Roper."

Fully alerted by John's playful comments, I sat up to watch the turn unfold. Little if anything came to light to confirm his intentions, so I deduced as best I could and, as stated, devised a plan of my own.

Horn Island is ringed by IJN subs. Death Star is posted just to the SW, Micro Death Star just to the SE. The natural thing for John would be to conclude that Horn Island is the immediate objective. Perhaps he'll flood the Torres Straits with combat ships. Maybe he's loading up his closest airfields. Perhaps KB is close enough to pounce.

That's the most likely scenario. I don't want to take undo risks in those tight waters with my CVEs and merchant ships, but I do want to force passage to test John's preparation. (Doing so will help me when DS egresses at the conclusion of Big Tent). So an RN DD TF will move out from Portland Roads, followed by a stronger USN cruiser TF. They will make for the Gulf of Carpentaria, aiming to rendezvous with Death Star. Micro Death Star, a combat TF, and merchantmen will remain at Portland Roads under a decent CAP umbrella, partly to serve as bait and to distract enemy strike aircraft if they're out there.

Death Star and the Herd will veer strongly northwest and make for Merauke. I'm hoping this will leave the subs behind at Horn, temporarily providing a clear route of ingress. It still looks to me like Merauke is shut down and hasn't been reinforced. D-Day will be the day after tomorrow.

Big Tent: It is possible that John is decoying the Torres Strait while preparing to move in Big Tent (or, far less likely, in the Marshalls, which would be a misallocation of force beyond my wildest dreams). John is persistently reconning Manokwari and Sorong, while mostly ignoring Boela and other bases. So my hunch is that those would be the targets for lightning strikes - bombardments and attacks by KB strike aircraft being most likely. He might also invade Biak or other smaller bases (I can't imagine he'd try to take on the bigger ones). My chief concern is the shipping at Boela, where 300+ ships are in port. So I'm beefing up CAP and leaving the major combat TFs in place.

Today, four USN DDs raided Ambon (again), sinking a PB at Namlea and then tangling with CL Nagara and three DD at the target hex. DD Oite is set afire. No other ships on either side take serious damage. This behavior is a little odd - John's not ganging up on my little TFs and he's risking what seem to me to be high-value assets. Hmm.

SigInt continues to provide plentiful information as to where John's reinforcements are going; what he deems important.

Let's see what tomorrow holds.

[dave sindel]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/26/43

Third Ring: Sometimes when I encounter reams of information in running a turn, I'm uncertain about what to do next and tentative in issuing orders. At other times, an inspiration strikes; a plan comes together; and issuing the orders is easy. That doesn't mean the plan is the right one, only that it seems "right" at the time. Such was the case with this turn. Tons of information. Lots to process. But I quickly happened upon a plan that I like.

I can certainly relate to this sentiment. After watching the combat replay, usually I will stare at the strategic map and say to myself "now what do I do?". That's the norm - inspirations are more rare. Plus a couple of my inspirations turned into unmitigated disasters, so I am a lot less inclined to follow them... [8|]

[ny59giants]

Horn Island - Maybe its too late, but I would have used fast DM, subs, and other minelaying warships to mine both shallow hexes to NE and SW. With the reef hexsides to west of base, you would make it hazardous for John to send anything through the area. I would have placed DBs at Portland Roads set to cover any attempts by John to sweep them away since your B-24s have closed the AF.

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Horn Island - Maybe its too late, but I would have used fast DM, subs, and other minelaying warships to mine both shallow hexes to NE and SW. With the reef hexsides to west of base, you would make it hazardous for John to send anything through the area.

Isn't it likely that the Japanese have already done the exact same thing? I'm wondering if Allied ships can get through there very easily, or get through at all.

[Canoerebel]

You wouldn't if you were me. If you were me, you would have already depleted your mine stocks trying to protect Boela, Sorong and Morotai (and, before that, the bases in the Marshalls). But even if I did have mines, I wouldn't sew them in ocean waters unless I had plenty in stock or was fairly certain that John would send combat ships that way. I do have DMs at Boela, but they are currently drumming their fingers, hoping U.S. production will generate new stockpiles of mines.

I rotate dive bombers, Beauforts, reconnaissance aircraft, and PBYs out of Portland Roads for the reason you mention.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: jwolf
Isn't it likely that the Japanese have already done the exact same thing? I'm wondering if Allied ships can get through there very easily, or get through at all.

Yes! That's one reason I wanted to force a passage through the Torres Strait - to see how John has configured his defenses there. So I'm risking some USN combat ships (DDs plus a CL and a CA or two) to make the passage this turn. That will help me know how to approach the Strait a month from now, when the Herd prepares to egress into the Coral Sea. (I hope, in the meantime, that John has shot his wad early, mistaking the current deployment as a move on Horn Island).

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You wouldn't if you were me. If you were me, you would have already depleted your mine stocks trying to protect Boela, Sorong and Morotai (and, before that, the bases in the Marshalls). But even if I did have mines, I wouldn't sew them in ocean waters unless I had plenty in stock or was fairly certain that John would send combat ships that way. I do have DMs at Boela, but they are currently drumming their fingers, hoping U.S. production will generate new stockpiles of mines.

I rotate dive bombers, Beauforts, reconnaissance aircraft, and PBYs out of Portland Roads for the reason you mention.

You should also be able to drop aerial mines as of 44.

[Canoerebel]

Only if you know what you're doing. I don't.

[:)]

[Bearcat2]

After 43, Aircraft must have city attack chosen, [bottom left] mine port button

[crsutton]

One day, I want to play in a game of poker with John. He has more "tells" than any player that I have seen. [:D]

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

One day, I want to play in a game of poker with John. He has more "tells" than any player that I have seen. [:D]

John I think would be the kind of player all in before the flop .. thus not much opportunity for play ..
Pair over pair ..(5-1) 2 high cards over lower pair ..(about 50/50) 1 high card high over 2 cards... 2 high cards over 2 high cards ..
Pretty much every poker hand with the exceptions of the flushes and straights ...[8D]

Maybe a tell which one of the above and whether to call the all in .. [;)]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

One day, I want to play in a game of poker with John. He has more "tells" than any player that I have seen. [:D]

You don't need the quote marks. He would say "I have three jacks. Banzai!"

And mean it.

[Canoerebel]

12/24/43

Third Ring: John's email comment: "This was a fun turn." That gave me heartburn, suggesting he liked what he saw. But the turn was quiet, favorably so for the Allies. Most of the details are on the map, but the important things:

1. Death Star and the Herd arrive safely and unmolested near Merauke. Invasion tomorrow.
2. Reinforcing TFs (four RN DDs and a USN CA/CL/DD TF) run the straits without incident and join Death Star. These are much needed, very welcome reinforcements. Go, boys, go!
3. John is trying to push reinforcements into Ambon, but they were turned back today by four USN DDs. CA Baltimore goes back to Ambon tonight.

What's John doing? Where? When?

[Canoerebel]

In flipping the turn back to John, I belatedly thought of something I wish I'd considered earlier.

My 4EB strikes at Tagula Island encountered 23 A6M8 Zero fighters. But the recon still reports no fighters there. I wonder if that's bleed-over CAP from KB? I checked, and here's what I found on the combat report:

CAP engaged:
Hiyo-1/B with A6M8 Zero (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(8 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Soryu-1 with A6M8 Zero (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(8 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Shokaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Ryukaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Taikaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Renkaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead

So KB is lurking out somewhere near Tagula. John must've been waiting for a chance to engage, hoping that his defenses at Horn Island might create cripples.

I think it might take him a high speed run to close on Death Star (not certain, but probably). He's pretty jazzed right now, so he might do something like that. But I'm guessing he won't. Perhaps he'll gang up on Micro Death Star.

I'm just guessing now. I don't know how desperate John is. But I am glad to know that KB is way out there. It won't be in position to interfere when the Ambon operation takes place.

[jwolf]

Perhaps he'll gang up on Micro Death Star.

This appears the most likely to me. Do you have enough fighter support around there to make it painful for him?

[Canoerebel]

If Micro DS makes it to Cooktown (no reason to think it won't), it'll have CAP of 177 fighters. That's not enough to withstand KB, of course. I'd probably lose those carriers and some combat ships. But KB would pay a toll in aircraft. It would be painful to have good ships sunk, but ultimately it might well be worth it.

John is probably operating on the assumption that the Allies were about to leave Big Tent. After all, the ships have been there for six weeks now. He's probably salivating at the prospects, both in the DEI and in the Coral Sea. But I think ops in Big Tent will take another three weeks or so. He might grow weary of waiting out there, bereft as an amorous husband hoping that his irritated wife will come to bed...eventually.

[Canoerebel]

12/28/43

Third Ring: A fine day for the Allies. See the map for many details. I haven't begun issuing orders yet, as I still have decisions to make. KB is near Milne Bay. John may be pursuing battle. Do I accept battle or retire to Big Tent waters?

Big Tent: John lost at least 20 merchantmen today at Namlea and Ambon. I am puzzled at his willingness to take punishment without (to this point) using it as an ambush generator. He's lost a heckuva lot of shipping without gain, as best I can tell. (The map reference to a tank unit attack took place at Ambon.)

Fun House: Many, many units are prepping now for the next big thing, just in case Big Tent/Third Ring continue to go well and then end well. Lots of fighting to come first, but a "best case scenario" isn't out of the question.

India: Both sides are moving a bit and feeling a bit. I've used my bombers to get John's attention a bit. Rather than wait and hope for an overwhelming sneak attack vs. Magwe on January 1, I wanted to tip John off. I do want to destroy his fuel, but I prefer for it to drag out and draw plenty of his air force this way.