The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[bradfordkay]

If I had all my troops ashore at Merauke with enough supply to hold them a few days I would try to draw him into Big Tent where your LBA will come into play. Staying at Merauke seems like a setup to face both the KB and his LBA, which could be problematic for you. How up to date are your ship and carrier aircraft upgrades?

[Canoerebel]

The decision is made, but first I'll answer Brad's questions: the troops are ashore - 1st Australian Div. (70% prepped, 37% fatigue, low disablements), Aussie I Corps, US 147 Arty, plus a small engineer unit and light AA. However, they don't have much supply. 1st Div. needs 1.1k and has 1.5k. So they can't stand on their own for long. Merauke is actually tough for his LBA. The only field he has that is open and close (8 hexes) is Gove. The others (Wau, Nadzab, Lae) are distant 10 hexes or so. So I don't think he can work a KB + LBA trap in any meaningful sense. My carriers are all 100% sorties, all fighter squadrons are full strength, pilot fatigue is low. Upgrades are complete on half the carriers and BB; the other half are due the 10/43 upgrades.

I think I won't offer battle here. The higher priority is still (temporarily) security for Big Tent and Third Ring. If I did lose a lopsided battle (unlikely but possible), I probably wouldn't be able to finish off Ambon or Merauke. My LOC would not be secure. Everything could come to naught.

What will things look like if I do move west? First, the empty transports that carried 1st Aussie Div. will move to Dobo to embark 2nd Marine Div., which will serve as reinforcements at Ambon. Second, I have a bunch of TFs loaded with the reinforcing troops slated for the Babar/Saumlaki/Taberfane complex (engineers, some infantry) and additional base forces for Boela. Some of these could probably unload even as Death Star moves west. There is also a possibility of detaching a small amphibious TF to make for Wessel Island, which I think is vacant.

The setting is complicated - a mixture of opportunity and risk. It's just been a lot of fun working all the angles of Big Tent and Third Ring.

John's email with this last turn was filled with vexation over work, but I think the larger part of that was over the ship losses at Ambon (and possibly with KB's position being revealed for no good purpose, or so I think).

[BBfanboy]

Interesting situation. Some observations:

- The plethora of subs that were in Torres Strait seem to have gone into hiding. I thought they would be clustering at Merauke. One of the two subs that were at Gove the day previous ins not showing there any more.

- There is a TF of some kind next to the words "TIMOR SEA" - heavy ships perhaps?

- I think John has been waiting for you to get the DS pinned in place where he can reach with KB, LBA and perhaps SCTFs to use up all your strikes. Having to stay at Merauke does that. He will probably try to set up an eight-hex strike.
What he may not be paying attention to is that you have Portland Roads and Coen to support you and could easily move DS into the Gulf of Carpentaria behind Coen/Portland Roads and have LBA supporting you. Heck you could even use your Micro DS to nip at his heels and distract him.

The big question is when can you get some other kind of CAP over Merauke's invasion shipping?

EDIT: was typing up the above before your post about proceeding with your BT operation. I did not think you would be able to up anchor at Merauke so soon, but since you can - I concur with your priorities. Now the pressure will be on John to decide whether to pass through Torres Strait seeking battle.

[Canoerebel]

The TF in the Timor Sea looks like transports (and has been acting like that too). John may have a combat TF presence in the DEI, but I think the recent attrition at Ambon and the torpedoing of Nagato left him shy. At least, he's acting like he doesn't have anything there.

It does look like he was primed to pounce at the Torres Straits. I don't think he forces the straits, but I'll be watching raptly.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The TF in the Timor Sea looks like transports (and has been acting like that too). John may have a combat TF presence in the DEI, but I think the recent attrition at Ambon and the torpedoing of Nagato left him shy. At least, he's acting like he doesn't have anything there.

It does look like he was primed to pounce at the Torres Straits. I don't think he forces the straits, but I'll be watching raptly.

Looks like John gets a (belated) lump of coal for Christmas 1943!

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

CAP engaged:
Hiyo-1/B with A6M8 Zero (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(8 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Soryu-1 with A6M8 Zero (8 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(8 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
8 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Shokaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Ryukaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Taikaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead
Renkaku-1 with A6M8 Zero (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 16000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 16000.
Raid is overhead

So KB is lurking out somewhere near Tagula. John must've been waiting for a chance to engage, hoping that his defenses at Horn Island might create cripples.

Obvert, take note. This is one enormous reason to not run range on your CAP, although the "Carrier support unable to supply air cover" message will still show up if you have groups set to 0% CAP and within their range setting (i.e., your carrier strike escorts). The key tell here is the "diverted to support" message - that shows up when CAP leaks over. I call it LeakyCAP [:'(].

[crsutton]

By late 43 you are pretty sure if zeros show up in a fight that KB is nearby. As a land based fighter they are more of a last ditch thing and I rarely find them in the front lines. As the Allies, you get about four reserve VF squadrons of Hellcats by late 43. I like to spread them around the map to keep my opponent guessing. Difference is that they are Hellcats and still pretty good for front line use so not uncommon. But Zeros-not as likely.

[Canoerebel]

John has a busy Saturday and has been courteous in giving notice of when turns aren't coming and when they are, which is much appreciated. I don't think I'll have a turn until late tonight or tomorrow morning.

His body language suggests that the events of the past few days might've taken some of the wind out of his sails - the debacle at Ambon, where he's lost so much shipping (partly he attributes this to oversight in giving orders to retire that he meant to give, but which he lost track of amidst a hectic work schedule) and the failure to spring the long-awaited ambush in the Torres Straits.

The next turn will have a large bearing on what happens next. If KB passes through the straits, Death Star will have its hand full for the foreseeable future. The order of the day will then be more defensive than offensive. But if KB stays east of the straits - and if SigInt continues to show that John has his heart set on creating a ring of steel around Big Tent extending as far as the Coral Sea...then Death Star will be in an offensive mode.

My preference remains to secure the Torres Straits, as it is the most efficient LOC from Death Star to friendly waters. But if John keeps lurking there, making passage risky, there is another option that I am evaluating. With KB out of the way, the Timor Sea offers a route of egress to southwestern Oz. Big bases at Darwin and Koepang (and probably a few on the Oz coast, as at Broome and Exmouth) are threats, but not grave ones without KB's assistance. I could move on several likely-vacant bases - Bathhurst Island, Roti, Waingapoe, and the Flores Island bases, and perhaps Wyndham. Doing so would further isolate Darwin and elevate the crisis in the DEI. Doing so would put KB further out of position and probably force John to react sharply in the DEI, where he'd have to risk the Kaigun to stop the infection.

As stated, my preference remains the Torres Strait, but this option is one worth considering.

There is also an "in between" - taking a few of these bases - Bathhurst chief among them - springing many of my empty transports into the Indian Ocean (where they could begin the long journey home to Pearl, where they'll be used for Fun House), and then keeping Death Star in the DEI for at least a month, maybe longer, before wrapping things up. And I can even see one possibility where DS remains in Big Tent until Fun House, keeping John focused here until DS was needed. It would be shorter to Fun House from Big Tent than from Hawaii.

The ultimate objective is to keep the pressure on, forcing John to react in less than favorable circumstances, so that the bleeding of his navy continues. I think the current situation - the lack of combat ships in the DEI - proves that his navy is in brittle condition.

[paullus99]

Taking a page out of Sherman's book - the defensive offensive...putting yourself in a position where your opponent has no choice but to attack you, which serves your ultimate purpose in bleeding him.

I don't understand why he's being so cavalier with his carriers, especially after what happened off Wake.

I swear, if John isn't the living embodiment of John Bell Hood, I don't know who is....

[JohnDillworth]

Taking a page out of Sherman's book - the defensive offensive...putting yourself in a position where your opponent has no choice but to attack you, which serves your ultimate purpose in bleeding him.

I don't understand why he's being so cavalier with his carriers, especially after what happened off Wake.

I swear, if John isn't the living embodiment of John Bell Hood, I don't know who is....

Even leading up to Wake he was jaunting all over the place burning up fuel and probably collecting some OP damage. Inside the DEI fule wont be an issue (for now) but the KB is all over the place and every drop of fuel is one less air-frame in 6 months

[Capt. Harlock]

I swear, if John isn't the living embodiment of John Bell Hood, I don't know who is....

A reasonable choice, but for that position I would nominate Jeff Lowpe, who is currently getting crushed after attempting to take Los Angeles and San Diego.

John strikes me more as akin to "Fighting Joe" Hooker, who could play a superb game of poker until it came time for the last raise, and then he would lose confidence. Where is that Christmas present?

[Crackaces]

I'm not sure what general or admiral is likened to who ... but .. CanoeRebel has a big tumor in the middle of the DEI and it will be very interesting the strategies adopted to expand this enclave ...

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I'm not sure what general or admiral is likened to who ... but .. CanoeRebel has a big tumor in the middle of the DEI and it will be very interesting the strategies adopted to expand this enclave ...

He propounds to be a Southern boy but he is the most U.S. Grant like admiral that I know. He brings everything to the party and does not fret too much over losses as long as it get the win in the end.

"If he can't skin, he can at least hold a leg."

[Canoerebel]

John has dropped off the grid a bit this weekend, the earmark of a player not eager to dive back in. He's not jazzed about anything at the moment. He probably doesn't have anything in the works. I think the trap sprung at Torres Strait was probably what had generated a great deal of interest on his part. His level of interest probably won't increase until he comes up with a new plan or luck smiles on him (a sub attack or the like).

So he's almost certainly not committing KB past the Torres Strait. He'll retire to the Coral Sea or the Solomon Sea. I don't want it there, complicating Death Star's eventual egress. So I'm working on a plan to ramp up things in the DEI so that he has to respond.

The Civil War analogy is Sherman in Georgia. After he takes Atlanta, the Rebels conclude that they can sever his supply line and force him to retreat. So Hood moves north. But Sherman doesn't retreat. There's nothing to prevent him from moving on Augusta or Macon or Columbus or Selma.

At the moment, John is sitting on my "LOC" to Oz. But there's probably nothing that can stop Death Star and the Herd from moving deeper into the DEI. LBA will always be a concern, but probably only subs, combat ships or KB can really stop DS. I'd like to draw KB to Big Tent, so moving forward, deeper into the DEI, is under consideration. The situation is fluid and will morph depending on what John does with KB. But for now, the plan is to flex some muscle and make some noise in the DEI.

[bradfordkay]

I don't know, Dan. I see a significant difference between your situation and that of Sherman's army. In his day an army truly did march on its stomach and thus could get by on "liberated" supply. Your fleet needs fuel, and unless you move on and capture Balikpapan, you are sooner or later going to have an issue with the Death Star being cut off from your supply sources. Are you able to get enough fuel up to Normantown to indefinitely supply the Death Star?

[Canoerebel]

I didn't do a good job of explaining the analogy. I don't intend to stay in DEI indefinitely. I have enough fuel for another month or so of operations (and can extend that, if necessary, by refueling from xAK fuel tanks). That should be enough time to complete the remaining Big Tent and Third Ring objectives. If John commits KB to the DEI, that will clear the route of egress through the Torres Strait. So I'm working on ideas to motivate him to commit KB. Ramping up offensive operations to include Bathurst Island, Flores Island, Waingapoe, etc. are some of the possibilities.

[Canoerebel]

No word from John III since he Saturday morning, when he apologized for not sending a turn and said he'd send one that afternoon. He was last seen fleeing into the wilderness, tossing aside his garments one by one, muttering oaths about the Torres Strait. I'm a little concerned about his state of mind. If I don't hear from him by tomorrow, I'll send him an email.

[Mike McCreery]

When was the last time John finished a game as either the Japanese or Allies?

[Capt. Harlock]

I have enough fuel for another month or so of operations (and can extend that, if necessary, by refueling from xAK fuel tanks). That should be enough time to complete the remaining Big Tent and Third Ring objectives. If John commits KB to the DEI, that will clear the route of egress through the Torres Strait. So I'm working on ideas to motivate him to commit KB.

On the other hand, it seems to me that if the KB simply stays where it is for a month, you should be able to open up a new route elsewhere. (Grant re-establishing his supply line at Vicksburg.[;)] )

[ny59giants]

Dan, You do realize that John has other priorities than flipping turns? Father of two young men, manager of a small restaurant which can always throw a monkey wrench into things, a wife that seems to always have a 'honey to do list' for him, deacon at church, local historical society, and now plans to remodel the kitchen. I usually get surprise phone calls when he is mobile (going to get more supplies for his Subway store). He often promises to call me later in the day or the next day, but usually doesn't do so. I spoke with him late last week and I didn't get any comments or sense that he wasn't jazzed to continue playing on. We did discuss your game and my two at length along with prez politics. Tuesday is inventory night for him, so he should have time to send you one today, but be proactive and drop him a quick email right now.