The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

A quick look at the Celebes, primary target for Carousel.

[Lokasenna]

That stupid dot base that stays green all game I think is the result of a PWHEX error. You can't unload amphibs there at all - I think maybe the game thinks there's no coast. So it doesn't get auto-occupied via rowboats. Or something.

[BBfanboy]

With Horn Island in your hands (unexpectedly for John, I think) he will be wanting to shore up his New Guinea defences in case you are going for an envelopment from the south. Accordingly, I think the troops just moved out of Rabaul are going to Buna to march over to Port Moresby. Your Carousel could mean a roulette wheel so I am betting red 13 on my guess. [8D]

[Canoerebel]

While walking Lavender Mountain, the thought that occurred to me was that John might (not will, but might) use KB to circumnavigate Oz, interdicting my supply lines, seeing what prey he might snare, and then winding up in the DEI. I think that would hurt him more than help him, but the aggressive, offensive nature of a raid might entice him.

Surely, surely to goodness he won't use all those troops to reinforce eastern New Guinea. That would be shocking, to me.

It would be like the Confederates using the Army of Tennessee to fortify Macon and Milledgeville after Sherman took Savannah. The front had long passed those points, and Sherman was moving into South Carolina. There was no looking back.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
That stupid dot base that stays green all game I think is the result of a PWHEX error. You can't unload amphibs there at all - I think maybe the game thinks there's no coast. So it doesn't get auto-occupied via rowboats. Or something.

That's interesting. No wonder I couldn't get SSTs to land supply there back in the late spring of '43. I had wanted to base some PBYs there to see where John deployed his carriers as the Sumatra campaign wound down.

I've transported in supply via Dakotas flying from Ambon. The base force personnel came in via flying boat.

So, for Japan, is the only option to take the base via paratroop fragment assault? It would probably be worth it, just to avoid the Allies using the base stealthily at some inopportune (for Japan) moment.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
That stupid dot base that stays green all game I think is the result of a PWHEX error. You can't unload amphibs there at all - I think maybe the game thinks there's no coast. So it doesn't get auto-occupied via rowboats. Or something.

That's interesting. No wonder I couldn't get SSTs to land supply there back in the late spring of '43. I had wanted to base some PBYs there to see where John deployed his carriers as the Sumatra campaign wound down.

I've transported in supply via Dakotas flying from Ambon. The base force personnel came in via flying boat.

So, for Japan, is the only option to take the base via paratroop fragment assault? It would probably be worth it, just to avoid the Allies using the base stealthily at some inopportune (for Japan) moment.

So far as I know, yes.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

That stupid dot base that stays green all game I think is the result of a PWHEX error. You can't unload amphibs there at all - I think maybe the game thinks there's no coast. So it doesn't get auto-occupied via rowboats. Or something.

It looks like you are referring to Kalao. In the game using the F6 key it shows a red line at the reef (as it should) but dark blue lines for the other sides. The "W" key does not show any anomalies either.

I looked at the base in the editor in both Scenario 1 (stock) and 28 (DBB). Both show the islet as Type 01 (Port) , with a port SPS of 0 and starting at 0. The AF is SPS 4, start 0. No apparent anomalies there.

So if the Pwhex map file is corrupted it would not show anything on the hex border displays?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

That stupid dot base that stays green all game I think is the result of a PWHEX error. You can't unload amphibs there at all - I think maybe the game thinks there's no coast. So it doesn't get auto-occupied via rowboats. Or something.

It looks like you are referring to Kalao. In the game using the F6 key it shows a red line at the reef (as it should) but dark blue lines for the other sides. The "W" key does not show any anomalies either.

I looked at the base in the editor in both Scenario 1 (stock) and 28 (DBB). Both show the islet as Type 01 (Port) , with a port SPS of 0 and starting at 0. The AF is SPS 4, start 0. No apparent anomalies there.

So if the Pwhex map file is corrupted it would not show anything on the hex border displays?

There is something about it that prevents ships and SSTs from unloading there. The game even gives you a message. This should probably not be the case.

[Canoerebel]

1/29/44

Carousel: Death Star and the Herd continue steaming west, making their way to Celebes. The transition from Horn Island to Carousel has gone smoothly thus far, with no untoward incidents today. Tomorrow things will heat up quickly as DS nears Celebes. Invasion targets have not all been finalized, yet, but Palapo and Watampone will be included.

John is beginning to show a shift of focus. More ships and reinforcements are landing at Pare Pare, on Celebes's west coast. I want that base. Thus far, recon shows the three units ashore have no guns. Perhaps they are just engineers. SigInt had three separate reports of 56th Div. fragments on marus bound for Catoblan in the Philippines.

The only thing that can really slow me down right now (other than the usual logistical friction) is KB. I think it's still down in the Solomons. John has a bit of a dilemma. There are some juicy targets out nearby - Allied merchants hugging the Oz coast and even Horn Island itself, which is only modestly defended. But I think he has or will soon conclude that he needs KB in the DEI.

Or he may remain stubbornly on the offensive.

India/Burma: Massed Allied air raids muss up 33rd Div. at Lashio a bit. John has decent fighter squadrons there, at Schwebe, and at Rangoon (and possibly other locales). Thus far, though, the January air campaign has gone pretty well.

[Canoerebel]

1/30/44

KB: Recon got good sightings of both carrier TFs (including a "spotted enemy carriers" announcement), sans fighters, at Buin. Their location is critical, both for Carousel and for the hush-hush Bumper Car.

One guess is that John has moved all his carrier fighters to the DEI to bolster his ability to attack. That would be a sensible arrangement. Under that scenario, he might then hope to shift them back to the carriers, which are positioned to raid into the Coral Sea. There, John is doing some sniffing around. He knows I have lots of vulnerable shipping. He's probably struggling with his instinct to "Attack!"

But I think things are about to come to a head. I think that in two or three days, things are going to happen that will convince John that he cannot afford to be dallying in the Coral Sea or Solomon Sea or anywhere else but his heartland.

Map of KB's location below. One of Carousel to follow.

The next week should be eventful.

[Canoerebel]

Carousel

[crsutton]

I think I would have ignored the Celebes but gone for Manado and Talaud island. Manado is a great port and threatens not only his oil but the PI. Move up to North Borneo from there and his oil is going to be cut off regardless. But six of one.....

[BBfanboy]

Rather than being stubborn, I think John's inaction is indecision since he wants to play his own hand but knows he should be stopping you from playing yours.
It seems to fit with his inability to prioritize on a strategic scale.

What kind of D/L does John have on DS? It seems foolish of him to leave the CL/DD TF and the one with "2 CVs" (probably tankers) that close to your approach unless he is not sure where DS is.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: crsutton
I think I would have ignored the Celebes but gone for Manado and Talaud island. Manado is a great port and threatens not only his oil but the PI. Move up to North Borneo from there and his oil is going to be cut off regardless. But six of one.....

Ross, there's a reason I didn't choose that vector. It's something I haven't touched on and won't. But if you keep reading into the spring of '44 months, you'll see why I chose to move west rather than to the NW.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Rather than being stubborn, I think John's inaction is indecision since he wants to play his own hand but knows he should be stopping you from playing yours.
It seems to fit with his inability to prioritize on a strategic scale.

What kind of D/L does John have on DS? It seems foolish of him to leave the CL/DD TF and the one with "2 CVs" (probably tankers) that close to your approach unless he is not sure where DS is.

John knows Death Star's location. Detection has been low, sporadic, and sometimes completely absent, but almost every turn he loses patrol aircraft to my CAP. Too, my TFs have basically moved on a straight line between Horn Island and the Celebes. He knows where DS is.

I hope my commentary isn't too critical of John. I'm trying to convey what's going on in my head right now - what information I have, what conjectures I'm making, what fears I have, and the opportunities I see.

Right now, all of this revolves around the location of KB (some of this you readers aren't privy to, but will know more soon). I'm pretty flummoxed that John has let me "see" KB for at least the past ten days. I'm even more flummoxed that he's chosen to leave KB so far out of position.

The absurdity of KB's deployment makes me wonder if I am missing key information or making flawed deductions. I've gone through this before. Usually, when I feel confident in the information I have it turns out that my guesswork is on target (Sumatra being wide open, NoPac being wide open, KB acting nuts when John had zero detection on my carriers, Big Tent being wide open). I am pretty confident I'm making the right deductions here.

But here's the thing: I might be wrong. John might have come up with something that devastating. My TFs may be steaming into disaster. That kind of uncertainty - that kind of tension - makes the game intoxicating.

[Canoerebel]

1/31/44

KB: Let's start with the current location of the Japanese carriers.

[Canoerebel]

1/31/44

Carousel: Death Star and the Carousel Herd continue on their westward journey without mishap. By tomorrow, DS should be close enough to the Celebes to "take control" of some of the bases. Some of my ASW ships had to refuel today, which may slow things down just a bit.

42 Jills sortied from Koepang without escort. DS CAP downed 39 of them. The other three limped home, I guess.

In addition to this Herd, several Big Tent TFs are moving forward to Ambon. From there, some can replenish Carousel combat ships. One of the TFs has a BB, the other is flagged by CA Baltimore. I plan to use these to bombard, if they aren't needed to fight off enemy combat ships.

With KB apparently down in the Solomons, I moved some strike aircraft off my carriers and replaced them with more fighters.

Bumper Car: This super-secret op will soon get underway.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

1/31/44

KB: Let's start with the current location of the Japanese carriers.

Both those TFs missing their fighters .... makes me think he landed them at an air base and has lots of LBA fighters to make a super CAP trap there.
He will be calling you stubborn for not taking the bait! [:D]

[Canoerebel]

I'm working on the turn now. A CAP trap is worrisome. On the one hand, I want my carriers to take control of the seas around Celebes. On the other, any TFs John leaves in harm's way may be for CAP trap purposes. I'm weighing whether to limit my fighter's range to avoid a CAP trap and to make sure my own CAP is maximized.

[T Rav]

Heavily loaded CAP trap bases scream for bombardment attention. However, it is hard to pick where those targets might be.

Watching this unfold has been great fun.

T-Rav