In the case of Italy I went back to old saves and the one I took just after the fall of Poland exhibits this issue. For Germany I didn't save at Poland's fall but the one I have from December 30 39 has the problem too. I remember that my prior turn's MPP production was suspiciously low so this also happened right after or soon after the fall of Poland (I usually need 3 player turns for that).
I have the mentioned saves and happy to send them over if that helps. It definitely seems like (at least in my case) this happens in the early game and Poland's defeat events seem suspiciously related. I always played it nice with the soviets and honored the pact, then offered Lithuania - maybe it's those events...
Please let me know if I can assist in diagnosing... right now unfortunately it's not a rare occurence (2 for 2) and it's not really possible to play the game once this happens.
