The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

If John has turned his army to attack, the question is whether he's chosen an effective strategy or a wasteful one. For those new to the game, here's a summary of what he could do that would hurt me.

It's difficult (but not impossible) for John to counterattack in a major way at this point in the game, at least against hardened Allied targets. So he should only target enemy territory in order to (1) draw valuable Allied assets into battle on terms advantageous to him; (2) slow down the Allied advance; and/or (3) destroy major Allied units if possible, knowing that Allied infantry took a blow in Sumatra in early 1943.

With regard to item one, Allied carriers, capital ships, and APA/AKA/AP/AK are about the only things that John can hit that might slow the Allied advance. He can't "control" whether I commit these assets by attacking me; he generally has to wait for me to commit them, then strike hard and efficiently.

With regard to item two, there are very few bases on the map that would slow me down at this point. I can make do without most bases, no matter how big or how important. Whether I hold all or part of Celebes, the Marshalls, New Caledonia, Ceylon, etc. really doesn't matter. The few bases that would slow me down: (a) Pearl Harbor (invulnerable); (b) Horn Island (very unlikely as it is strongly garrisoned and difficult for him to attack in strength), Normanton (ditto), and maybe (d) Midway.

With regard to item three, I do have the equivalent of nearly two divisions ashore on Celebes, but these units aren't part of Fun House. I don't want to see them destroyed, and I may act if necessary to defend them. John's main problem is that the Allied forces on Celebes are stout enough to hold out for quite some time. He's committed 19th Division forward in an offensive campaign at a late date. Does this mean he's adequately garrisoned all the key bases further back, in Java, Sumatra, Borneo, the Philippines, etc.? I don't think he has. I think Celebes could turn out to be Gove on a much grander scale. He detached two 16th Div. RCTs to defend that base while leaving Celebes largely undefended, ultimately costing him both. If he commits to Celebes on a large scale now, what happens if the Allies go deep and bases that might've been defended with 19th Div/A, 19th Div/B and 19th Div/C are open?

Let's see.

[BBfanboy]

You can use preparation to cause disinformation to the enemy, but AFAIK you can only get the info about a unit on ships bound for destination XXXX if you actually load them and give the ship that destination. You can of course turn it around again or not unload the TF, but that seems a poor way of using a potent tank division.

My take on the 2nd Tank Division is that Batavia was a waypoint/fuelling stop and Broome is indeed the destination. He wants to keep Darwin but doesn't dare bring the TF closer than Broome because of your bombers, so he lands the Tank Division at Broome and overlands to Darwin.

John may be thinking he can pull off another Sumatra in this area, but times and OOBs have changed!

[Canoerebel]

You can do some pretty clever things using waypoints - set the destination (Broome) but have a waypoint at, say, Pare Pare. Then, when the TF arrives at Pare Pare, unload the unit there. Then you've provided disinformation. One of the keys to disinformation is that it must be credible to some extent. It is not credible for John to send 2nd Tank Div. to Broome. If he does, he's nuts.

[Lokasenna]

That's exactly the sort of info I just disregard. It's either meaningless (what do you care if he's actually going to Broome?) or maskirovka.

[Canoerebel]

Some information is useless, but for reasons I won't go into, that information is meaningful.

[Canoerebel]

3/8/44

When information comes in bits and spurts, is contradictory or confusing, it can be difficult to "see through a glass darkly." By last turn, I was pretty sure that John was executing a "Bulge" style offensive. But John, being helpful, eliminated any uncertainty with this email message: "Convenient having a day at home when SOOOOOOO much is happening."

There is a lot happening: Burma, DEI, Marshalls, and Fun House. See map for exciting information and details about free shipping of Zamphir's Pan Flute Greatest Hits to the first person that accurately predicts what John is doing with 2nd Tank Division (see map for luscious clues).

[BBfanboy]

If that Chinese incursion is the first time an Allied unit has entered Vietnam, John will get a message in his Op Report saying the Viet Minh have activated. Five or six VM units will arrive over the next several days. They are weak and inexperienced.

[Canoerebel]

Unless there's been a rule change, entering China in '44 doesn't trigger the Viet Min. I'm not sure it does in 1943 either.

[Lokasenna]

Correct, they will not arrive and there will be no message.

[Flicker]

Section 8.3.5 Counter Invasion Forces states that "Allied entry of Indo-China by the Chinese" triggers reinforcements.

Tabiteuea is one of my favorite islands in the Gilberts - oops more later.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Flicker
Section 8.3.5 Counter Invasion Forces states that "Allied entry of Indo-China by the Chinese" triggers reinforcements.

Tabiteuea is one of my favorite islands in the Gilberts - oops more later.

If it says that it's either erroneous, out of date, or a recent change to the rules. My recollection from prior incursions into Vietnam by the Chinese is that it triggers the reinforcements in 1941 and 1942 but not 1943 or thereafter. I'm pretty sure about that, and it looks like Loka is very sure.

[Canoerebel]

3/9/44

This turn was like a modern air battle - lots of missiles filed, some mistakes made, some important hits scored, and some flashes and smoke as missiles take off after chaff. It was a tumultuous, confusing, noisy, and productive turn. So much so, in fact, that I think it'll be easier to follow without using a map. I'll begin with the minor, easier to understand events and move on from there.

Marshalls: I made two mistakes in this theater, though both amount to chaff more than substance. (1) I committed a small unit to invade Tabituea. Recon misled a bit and the landing force isn't enough to wrest the base from a small but more potent force ashore. I'll try again later; (2) I accidentally set a US RCT to deliberate attack instead of bombard at Roi-Namur. That didn't turn out well and the attack failed. The unit is slated to withdraw in 20 days, so I'll deal with this base later. I also had a little plan that didn't work out: I sent four DDs to Roi hoping John might also send a combat TF. He did, but I lost the only ship (a DD). None of his ships were wounded and slowed to draw attacks from strike aircraft. So it was an unsatisfactory day in the Marshalls, but this theater is pretty much irrelevant and the losses were minimal.

Burma: John didn't put up any CAP. Allied 2EB mauled unprotected 12th Div/D, which then got pushed back by Allied mechanized units. 4EB worked over 12th Div/B at Mandalay. Allied units continue to advance and I think, but I'm not quite sure, that the Japanese are withdrawing more expeditiously. John has to commit fighters here or he's going to have 3 to 5 divisions really messed up. He may be in a position to do so given what happened in the DEI.

Celebes: John scored an important and strong victory at Pare Pare, pushing back a stout Allied force and doing considerable damage. This resulted from two big bombardment TFs, several air attacks, and then a shock attack by fresh 19th Div. The Allied positions on Celebes are in peril. But what really has my attention is the speed, which resulted mainly from his use of his BBs. I don't want Celebes to collapse too soon, so I'm working on a way to address this. This was an important victory for John. He has at least three BBs and at least part of KB committed.

Fun House: All preparations in CenPac are on schedule to make that March 20 departure. Death Star Junior is still in Shangri-La. In SoPac, Death Star was en route from Normanton to Townsville. I didn't really like the feel of this as it seemed to be taking the carriers out of the impact zone for a bit too long. The situation in Celebes made me reconsider. I'll probably recommit Death Star to the DEI (two carriers need one more day in port, so I have until tomorrow to finalize the plan). The carriers and their aircraft are refreshed and replenished and ready to go. Two good units 100% prepped for Taulaud-Eilanden have been ordered to load aboard good transports. This op was slated for later, but if Death Star is heading back to the DEI, I want the option of moving on Talaud, which is still lightly garrisoned.

What happened in Celebes is the big news of the day. The German army is smashing through the Ardennes. I'm concerned, but I think I know what to do and when and where to do it. Let's see what happens.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Flicker
Section 8.3.5 Counter Invasion Forces states that "Allied entry of Indo-China by the Chinese" triggers reinforcements.

Tabiteuea is one of my favorite islands in the Gilberts - oops more later.

If it says that it's either erroneous, out of date, or a recent change to the rules. My recollection from prior incursions into Vietnam by the Chinese is that it triggers the reinforcements in 1941 and 1942 but not 1943 or thereafter. I'm pretty sure about that, and it looks like Loka is very sure.

I'm sure you are correct - I forgot about the date part. I have just triggered the VM in my game but in 1942, so it was on my mind and I had to dump it! [:D]

[Canoerebel]

On Halloween Day, a friend and I hiked 14 miles in the Cohutta Wilderness Area of north Georgia. At the end of a 1,800-foot climb, we topped out on Cowpen Mountain. Smoke was boiling up from Rough Ridge, just to the east. The next day, the U.S. Forest Service closed the trail we had hiked up. Three days later it closed the entire Wilderness Area, which remained closed until December 6. In total, the Rough Ridge Fire burned 28,000 acres. We're returning to the Wilderness Area today to hike that same route. I want to see how the forest looks post-burn as compared to Halloween, when the fall colors were spectacular. I'm hoping I'll get the inspiration to finish a story about the Rough Ridge Fire, because thus far the words just aren't coming.

During the day, I'll also be giving a lot of thought to the game. I think the Ardennes comparison is a good one - John's on the counteroffensive in the DEI. I'm going to have to do some good thinking and hope that the thoughts will come, unlike the words for that story.

I have mutually exclusive, incompatible needs short-term. On the one hand, I can't abandon Celebes to its fate. John's BBs are too much of a threat. He might overwhelm the outposts over two or three weeks if I don't stop him from using his battleships. But, for reasons I can't go into yet, my carriers have an equally important mission elsewhere - actually considerably more important, though I'm not minimizing Celebes, but rather maximizing the other. I think I can get to Celebes in about seven to ten days but I want to go now. So I need time to weigh those things and make the best decision I can.

Into the medium term, having the carriers in the DEI again will dovetail well with Fun House. If, by chance, I can stabilize Celebes and also pick of Talaud-Eilanden, then I'll be that much further ahead. But John isn't static here. He's moving. He has plans. The situation will continue to evolve.

A lot to think about on a long hike.

[Flicker]

I haven't used Chinese units to take Indo-China (because I read the manual) so I don't know when the triggering ends.

Tabiteuea is a relatively good port 1 air 3 atoll with max 60,000 stacking, which in that area of the South Pacific is yuge.

[BBfanboy]

In the various write-ups about the Ardennes battle most writers seem to think the Allies made a mistake by pushing the Germans back on a broad front rather than slicing in from North and South to cut off the salient. Would be interesting if you could cut off John's retreat path and have his ships and troops in the bag - but I understand that is still secondary to getting your next op into the heartland.
Enjoy the hike. For now I am content to stay in my apartment and check out the animal tracks on the river with my binoculars. A good year for rabbits, apparently.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

In the various write-ups about the Ardennes battle most writers seem to think the Allies made a mistake by pushing the Germans back on a broad front rather than slicing in from North and South to cut off the salient. Would be interesting if you could cut off John's retreat path and have his ships and troops in the bag - but I understand that is still secondary to getting your next op into the heartland.
Enjoy the hike. For now I am content to stay in my apartment and check out the animal tracks on the river with my binoculars. A good year for rabbits, apparently.

Ridgeway was furious with Monty. After the 82nd airborne held for so long in the 'fortified goose egg' Monty ordered him to withdraw and 'straighten out the line'.
Had Ridgeway and Patton been given their head they could have sliced the bulge right off encircling the krauts.
Both were flabbergasted that Monty chose a frontal assault to push the bulge back in.

sorry for derailing the thread...I am a huge student of the bulge and have played just about very game of it ever created.
My beta AAR of Pieper's dash was stickied on the old and now defunct Battles from the Bulge forum.
Just love the bulge analogy.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Flicker
Section 8.3.5 Counter Invasion Forces states that "Allied entry of Indo-China by the Chinese" triggers reinforcements.

Tabiteuea is one of my favorite islands in the Gilberts - oops more later.

If it says that it's either erroneous, out of date, or a recent change to the rules. My recollection from prior incursions into Vietnam by the Chinese is that it triggers the reinforcements in 1941 and 1942 but not 1943 or thereafter. I'm pretty sure about that, and it looks like Loka is very sure.

This is correct. China and Vietnam have been historic enemies for a very long time and the Viet Minh would have been alarmed if Chinese troops entered the country early in the war. But by 1943, the Viet Minh were solidly in the Allied camp, so there would have been no activation. If I am not mistaken there were Chinese troops in Northern Vietnam for a while after the war to help disarm the Japanese. The Chinese were responsible for territory north of the 16th parallel, the British south of the line.

[Lokasenna]

Why can't they just say "north of 16 degrees"?

[Canoerebel]

3/10/44

Long, long, long, difficult day hiking in the mountains. Long day.

DEI: KB (or part thereof) is retiring to Soerabaja. Enemy troops are advancing. Allied positios are three: Makassar, Watampone, Polapo. I'm going to leave each garrisoned rather than combining. I need to buy some time, even if it means defeat in detail. It'll take John's troops time to get from one base to another. The situation in Celebes is critical. I don't want to lose these units. The bases are important, but fungible. It matters little whether I have them now or later. But the troops...

Death Star: After much thought and a gulp or two, Death Star will commit to the "higher priority" mission. This is going to take it away from Celebes for 7 to 10 days. I'll explain more at a later date.

Fun House: On schedule still.

Burma: John's got a mess on his hands here. Once again, Allied 2EB evaporated an enemy unit (3rd Raiding Force) in open terrain. Good Allied units are penetrating to the main bases. John has got to bring fighters in, but his airfields have problems too. If he doesn't, his army is going to be pretty battered.