Respectfully request Allied players abstain from viewing AAR.

[AllenK]

Sage advice. Looks like we need to think in terms of cutting losses and forming a defence in Spain while the army and Air Force recover.

[Jagdtiger14]

Once the US is in the war, I would not be surprised if the Allies DOW Portugal themselves. I would have a force that can peel off from the Spanish project to go over there to assist.

Get those Stuka's built and pummel northern Spain...you can flip everything.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

If CW has 4 hexes in northern Spain and Allies take Portugal, Axis are doomed in Spain.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

If CW has 4 hexes in northern Spain and Allies take Portugal, Axis are doomed in Spain.

That's correct. But if Uncle Joe DoW's you, your also doomed...

Thing is, you should indeed try to build out the Stuka's. But Stuka's alone isn't enough, you need FTR's too and you need to maintain the garrison ratio with the USSR at the same time... Now, that will not be easy at all...

[Jagdtiger14]

Stuka's alone isn't enough, you need FTR's too and you need to maintain the garrison ratio with the USSR at the same time... Now, that will not be easy at all...

The good news is that all these things will cost only 2BP's per. LND2's, FTR2's, and what ever 2BP cost land corps units still in your force pool. Focus on these in your next two builds.

I think the Stuka's would be safe from interception in northern Spain (other than perhaps carrier planes)?

[Centuur]

Well, if I were the CW player, I think I would send over Spitfires to Bilbao...

[Jagdtiger14]

Well, if I were the CW player, I think I would send over Spitfires to Bilbao...

If I were the Axis I would have ARTY (x2?) adjacent to Bilbao (hex SW).

[Mayhemizer_slith]

There is one CW fighter in northern Spain. More fighters are in BoB and they can RTB to Spain.

Germany has one artillery in north and another one in Gibraltar (it will move to north next turn).

[AllenK]

If we assume Allies will invade Portugal the question is when. For that we need to look at Amph, Trans builds and the Mar and Infs for the assault waves. How long to build and then assemble for D-Day? Allies will need to use CV's for fighter cover, which aren't the best. Can enough forces be assembled to throw invasion back into sea or at least contain it? If Allies break out, the next defence would be fortress Gib and the Pyrenees unless there are any decent river lines to defend. Need to start planning. Aim would be throw back but with contingency for the alternative. What forces do we need, besides air?

Any other thoughts?

[Klydon]

I believe the CW carrier planes and regular air have also taken a beating. It has been a real war of attrition with no really clear winner and honestly, the Allies should be content with that because they are winning the time battle.

I don't see how the Axis can have a viable defense of Spain with so many units tied down in the north.

Perhaps the thing to consider is call it good in the south and concentrate on clearing northern Spain, which should release quite a few forces, especially ground. While not the ideal situation in that it will leave the Allies Africa to spring back with, Gibraltar will be a tough nut to crack regardless and the Allies will be further out from the core of the Axis, time is of the essence and leaving the Allies with a foot hold in northern Spain is worse.

The Allied shipping situation has also taken a lot of attrition as well. I don't know that they have a lot of amphib capability in the pipeline yet because they have also been busy replacing losses and feeding the attrition monster as well in terms of ground units and aircraft.

My two cents. [:D]

[Jagdtiger14]

Klydon wrote:

Perhaps the thing to consider is call it good in the south and concentrate on clearing northern Spain, which should release quite a few forces, especially ground.

I was thinking about this as well...but was hoping one more turn might do it (S/O). I also would like to see a mountainous line from Tangier to the eastern most hex of Morocco and south...is this too late now?

I'm not aware of what assets the CW has available, but all they have to do concerning Portugal is take the minor port of Porto (invade with a CA+div) and stream in US units. I'm not sure if the US is ready to do this...they Allies will need some ARM/MECH to keep their foothold...so maybe there is more time than we think. I would say do what can be done through the end of this year and get ready for J/F'42.

All you need to do to throw back an invasion is be in range with at least a MECH div (plus other ground units for better ratio and soak off). This however assumes two things: 1. You are not facing an ARM Marine unit, which means you need more to call the blitz. 2. Enemy air has not successfully ground struck the would be blitzing unit(s). So the number of MECH/ARM div's/corps needed would depend on the areas you want to defend.

Even if you give up on Tangier, I would continue to vigorously challenge CSV. If the US/Allies land in Morocco, it will be difficult for them to go anywhere if they are OOS.

[Centuur]

Do the Axis have enough units available to accomplish the capture of Northern Spain? I doubt it. One thing is certain: only make attacks which have a 50% or more chance that you take the hex. If not, an attack is of no use at all, since the Axis cannot affort further attrittion of their forces, since almost all reinforcements have to go to the east, to pacify Uncle Joe. Avoiding a Soviet DoW on Germany is top priority now...

[Jagdtiger14]

Do the Axis have enough units available to accomplish the capture of Northern Spain? I doubt it. One thing is certain: only make attacks which have a 50% or more chance that you take the hex.

If an entire stack is flipped?

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

Do the Axis have enough units available to accomplish the capture of Northern Spain? I doubt it. One thing is certain: only make attacks which have a 50% or more chance that you take the hex.

If an entire stack is flipped?

That depends. The 1D10 table is used. With two units in a hex in mountains and in supply, they still defend with 16+ factors. You need a 2-1 with two enemy units flipped and in the hex to get a 50% chance of emptying the hex, when the Allies call for the Assault table (which they do, since they can't retreat).
The Spanish are always in supply, because they hold Bilbao. The Home Fleet isn't so easily scared away out of the Bay of Biscay, because it has air from the UK defending it. Add to this defensive shore bombardment and the Axis have real problems getting good enough odds to take the hex. And if the Axis succeed, there's only a 20% chance that they stay organised to take on the next hex.
The situation in Spain looks to me that the Allies can hold out on the coast. Perhaps the one hex not on the coast can be taken by the Axis. After that, Bayonne can be attacked out of four hexes. After that it's Bilbao and Santander. But for all attacks to be succesfull? No way. Losses will occur, disorganisation of units will occur again and again and losses will be there. Losses which can't be replaced from the Ostfront anymore, because of Uncle Joe's pressure...

Problem is only: the Axis can't affort not to try to get those 50% chance to empty these hexes... This is what one calls an impossible situation. Luck is needed and an awful lot of it...

[Jagdtiger14]

Ok, then take out Bayonne, and that interior hex, hem in the remaining two hexes with cheap units + ARTY. They will find it just as difficult to expand from there.

[Centuur]

Apparently, Germany can break the pact with the USSR. I'm not convinced that you do so and DoW the Soviets, but on the other end: if you can lift the pressure on Germany by aligning Rumania and securing the oil against a Soviet DoW on Germany? It's a real dilemma, since how the garrison s now in place, I don't think you can stop a Soviet DoW in J/F 1942...

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Here is the situation at the start of S/O 1941.

Germany is close to be able to break the pact, USSR needs 18,5 more garrison to do that.

Germany will bring more troops to USSR border during S/O and N/D. USSR can't break the pact during 1941, let's see how things are when 1942 arrives.

EDIT: I thought offensive markers are hidden from opponent. Looks like they are not hidden, maybe it has something to do with game mode (Solitaire)? Earlier I though USSR can easily break the pact, but I realized they can't after I counted all units on border.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Germany can align Finland. In 1941 that would give 8 garrison and 3 garrison arriving next turn. In 1942 Germany gets 10+1 garrison.

I would like to align it after being in war with USSR but can Align earlier if needed.

German plan for S/O 1941:

1) Bring troops to USSR border.

2) Send planes to northern Spain and have naval combats in CSV and BoB.

3) If Morocco goes OOS on first turn, Germany will ground strike Tangier and attack if units flip (CW has only one CP in CSV and 8 CPs in BoB). Next impulse there will be massive fleets and there is reason even to try. If ground strikes are made, units will be reorganized and moved to northern Spain later this turn.

4) If Germany gets goods odds in northern Spain, Germany will attack.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Can Italy place forts only to Italian controlled hexes or also to German controlled hexes (Gibraltar)?

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Germany ground strikes Santander by artillery.

Any ground strikes or strategic bombing for Japan?

EDIT: Does Italy ground strike Algiers? Germany does not need SB in Morocco this turn.