See you in Tokyo Bay - Apbarog(A) vs Walker(J) DBB-B Scen28

[apbarog]

No turn from Walker today. The drama in the South China Sea will have to wait until tomorrow.

In the meantime, troops at Port Hedland wait for the APAs that are currently loaded and on their next invasion mission. I won't be committing enough troops for Java to take the island. Maybe not enough to even land at Soerabaja, like I hope. At least, I'll gain a foothold on the eastern tip, and give Walker a reason to keep strong forces there. I'll be sending one US division for the landing at the eastern tip. The "B" team consists of two Indian divisions and one monster Chinese corp.

But first, Allied shipping nears Makassar, heading for the next set of landings.

And to be honest, the success that the US subs are having in the South China Sea could be a war winner by itself. Cargo ships can, and are, being used to ferry fuel back to Japan. But oil can only go on tankers, and we're steadily reducing their numbers. Some would argue that the US subs won the war in the Pacific historically. I can see how that could play out here. And it's just September 1943. Lots more subs (and everything else) in the pipeline.

[apbarog]

14 Sep 43

Sub Harder avoids 2 destroyers on ASW duty south of Formosa. Walker is raising his ASW defenses, near Formosa, and on the coast of Thailand/Vietnam.

Sub Escolar, taking a scenic route from Pearl Harbor to Darwin, spots an xAKL, an ARD, and a PB just west of Yap. One torpedo hits the xAKL, probably sinking it.

Enemy patrol boats immediately spot mines laid yesterday at Calapan, south of Manila.

Sub Billfish spots a huge tanker convoy south of Cam Ranh Bay, but misses with 2 torpedoes fired at a patrol boat.

Cleanup at Manado continues, with US forces attacking. 2 more enemy units disappear. Just one left.

The Fletchers came up empty in the South China Sea, and were spotted today. 3 of them split off, slowed by some damage, and will move 6 hexes south towards home. The other 5 can still move 8 hexes a day, and will do so, retiring towards home and fuel.

There was a large increase in sub detection levels south of Cam Ranh Bay. This could be due to land-based search, or there could be carriers.

Invasion forces continue to move toward staging areas.

I received my first AGC ship today in Panama. It will move to Pago Pago and then on to the front.

[apbarog]

15 Sep 43

Walker is certainly increasing his ASW efforts in the South China Sea. E-boats get a hit on Seahorse near the Vietnamese coast. D/L levels here are very high, so there's aircraft at work here too. This is where his tankers will eventually be sent. Along the coast.

Vals, escorted by Zeros and Oscars, fly out of Brunei (I think), and attack the 3 slower moving Fletchers as they withdraw from the South China Sea. Flak does pretty well considering there's just 3 ships. Renshaw is reportedly hit by a 250kg bomb, but it shows no damage from it. 30 Bettys then attack with torpedoes, flying all the way from Thailand or Vietnam. The 3 destroyers dodge all torpedoes, and flak damages some Bettys. In the afternoon, 16 Bettys return and try again, but the results are the same.

Judging by the detection levels of my subs in the South China Sea, I think that there are carriers out hunting my destroyers. Fortunately, I ran low on fuel and went south. Today is another problem though. I plot my Fletchers to move further south, but not to my closest base, which has some fuel but has no airfield yet. It is within easy range of Brunei. My ships will stay east of Borneo as they move south. If they move their full movement, the 3 destroyers will rendezvous with a light cruiser and destroyer, and take on some fuel. The other 5 destroyers will move a bit further south and rendezvous with an AO. This is risky. They could be hit by Bettys from just about anywhere. Jolo and Zamboanga are nearby, and divebombers could be based there. I send some Corsairs on extreme LRCAP from Goronatalo and Manado to guard the task forces. One more day in the danger zone.

A bit to the south of this activity, an armada is gathering for the next invasions. It'll take a couple more days to gather.

[apbarog]

16 Sep 43

Sub Cabrilla spots one of the big tanker convoys near Groot Natoena. No engagement.

Southwest of Formosa, sub Tinosa spots another tanker convoy and gets one torpedo hit on smallish tanker Takane Maru. It is not loaded but is burning. The sub then reattacks, but misses an E-boat with 2 torpedoes. Later, Tinosa attacks again, and gets a torpedo hit on PB Kaiun Maru.

Interesting. Just southwest of Bataan, sub Searaven spots BB Haruna, 4 cruisers and 4 destroyers. 4 torpedoes miss DD Kazegumo. A battleship in the Philippines. Searaven then reattacks, and misses DD Shiratsuyu with 4 torpedoes.

Jolo and Tarakan are both swept by P-38s and bombed by a mix of heavy and medium bombers. No CAP at either. Bombing results are excellent at Jolo, but poor at Tarakan, where the weather was poor.

In the morning, 9 Jills escorted by 22 Zeros, flying from carriers on the north coast of Borneo, find my replenishment rescue force near Tawi Tawi. 3 torpedoes hit AO Enoree, and 1 hits AM Force. Both ships are sunk. LR CAP did not show.

In the afternoon, 18 Nells and 13 Bettys, escorted by 15 Zeros and 13 Nicks, fly from somewhere on Mindanao, and attack the 2 task forces consisting of a CL and DD and the 3 DDs low on fuel. 30 torpedoes miss. Some targetted the CL.

Then 18 Jills escorted by 41 Zeros, flying from carriers, find the CL task force. CL Raleigh is torpedoed once, and DD McCalla is also torpedoed once. Both ships have a decent chance at surviving. Raleigh is 23 SYS/38-30 FLOT/1 ENG/0 FIRE, and McCalla is 12 SYS/57-40 FLOT/4 ENG/0 FIRE. Raleigh was able to refuel the other 3 DDs, so those destroyers will move south. Raleigh and a DD will move slower south, but I'm moving my fleet carriers north to cover them tomorrow. The carriers are also the vanguard of the coming invasions.

I'm hoping for a turn on Thursday or Friday. Then Walker is headed out traveling, and there won't be another turn for about a week.

[apbarog]

I chatted a bit with Walker about my destroyer move into the South China Sea. It turns out that his convoys reacted away from the surface threat, so he knew that something was out there, even though he didn't get a spotting during the day. I didn't know that I was spotted, since the detection level never went up. Bad luck for me. Good luck for me, though, that I left when I did, since my suspicions that there were carriers out there were correct.

I didn't get away without loss, but I'd try it again. And I will.

[apbarog]

17 Sep 43

Medium bombers hit Tarakan's airfield. Fairly poor results, again, with severe storms. No CAP.

Fighting at Manado has ended. The last enemy unit, the 16th Army HQ, has been eliminated. All bases on Celebes are now Allied. Troops at Manado begin to rest while they prepare for future actions elsewhere.

The only other action was ASW aircraft from Allied carriers hitting a RO sub east of Borneo. Lots of enemy subs here. And lots of Allied shipping will run the gauntlet of subs to the next set of invasion beaches.

But that will have to wait. Walker is now out of town for a week. I will take the next week to slowly do my turn, and pass the time micromanaging every little bit of the war. I'll do some region summaries during the week also.

[apbarog]

17 Sep 43 - The Solomons

I've spent some time looking at everything from New Guinea to the east, and have marked units for redeployment. I expected to move the major units in the Solomons that took Torokina and Buin, but I was surprised to find so many support units that can be pulled out. If I'm not going to advance further here, I don't need all of the support that I have here. Besides the 3 divisions, I have 45 other units that will be redeployed. They are currently in locations stretching from the eastern side of New Guinea, through the Solomons, Noumea, Suva, Pago Pago, and up to Christmas Island. Everything will go to Darwin. Just a few of them are prepping for future operations. Most will be assigned later.

[Dirtnap86]

It's been fun to read this Ap, hope you keep fighting the good fight. I'm still learning the game so it's interesting to see what all the allies can do in '42-43. You've really handed him some nasty body blows, especially considering this is 43. [&o]

[apbarog]

17 Sep 43 - Where the Action Is

Thanks Dirtnap86. Glad you are reading. I do wonder sometimes if this war is a bit boring for the reader. I'm certainly happy with my current position, but Walker hasn't really contested any of my landings from Timor onwards to the north. Even at Boela, where I didn't land enough to take the base, he hasn't tried to reinforce and win the fight. Not that I recommend this, but I'm just saying that lately my winnings have been too easy. Some of that may be from my preparation and going places that Walker may not have expected, but it has not been opposed by his fleet or airpower, for the most part.

I do think that is about to change. With Japanese carriers hovering off the north coast of Borneo, and my imminent invasions not that far away, we may see some major action soon.

I haven't been bored. I love managing the logistics. I do better at that than the actual fighting. I'm no expert playing as the Allies, so I'm learning that part as I go, but with a really good understanding of what the Japanese are going through now.

Where will Walker draw the line? I think it is at Mindanao, and northern Borneo.

I've taken a number of days working on this turn. As I had said, I started the transfer of many units in the South Pacific. Every unit identified now has shipping headed to it. And I was able to start prepping over half of the units. Most are support, being engineers and base units, but they have become a part of the plan.

No turn from Walker until at least Friday. He'll get back from his travels sometime then or on the weekend, I'm guessing.

The only notable combat today was eliminating the last enemy unit at Manado.

For me, on this turn a huge armada of ships will move adjacent to Jolo, mostly covering 2 hexes, with CVEs in one and the fleet CVs in the other, mutually supporting. No invasion on this turn, but very soon. Paras are getting ready too.

My goal is having troops on Luzon by the end of '43, and free access to the South China Sea.

[jwolf]

I do wonder sometimes if this war is a bit boring for the reader.

Absolutely not!! Please keep it up!

If you take Jolo and the other bases along that line such as Zamboanga, plus Palawan, would that clear the way for you into the South China Sea? I'm wondering, if both Mindanao and northern Borneo are strongly held, how much do you need to have control over a good sea lane through there.

[Dirtnap86]

Nice. I'm assuming a landing at Zamboanga, Jolo, Puerto Princess, North East Borneo, Panay and then on Luzon proper to open up the passageway?

[apbarog]

Taking such bases, jwolf, wouldn't ensure safety necessarily into the South China Sea, but once those bases have big airfields and can suppress any enemy airbases nearby, then yes. I do think that taking Palawan will clear the way for raiding task forces and carriers into the South China Sea. That risk will be something that Walker will have to take into account.

Dirtnap86, yes to Zamboanga and Jolo, as well as nearby islands. Puerto Princess and North East Borneo is later but soon. And an island or two east towards Manila. Then Luzon.

I don't think I've done anything too dramatic. No huge landings in the enemy rear. I've stayed fairly close to friendly air bases, although I haven't always waited for them to be built up much. Once the dominoes started falling, I've just continued on. Walker will have to be more aggressive soon. Well, in my opinion, it's already too late. But it will get worse for him.

[apbarog]

18 Sep 43
Walker has returned from his travels, so the war continues.

Subchasers go after I-124 near Jolo, but do just minor damage.

On the Rangoon to Singapore route, sub Balao finds a big xAKL convoy near Victoria Point, and sinks one. It is not loaded with troops.

CL Trenton and some DDs move to Jolo to bombard it, but find I-35 there, and sink it in the shallow water. The base is then bombarded, causing minor damage.

Dadjangas, south of Davao on Mindanao, is bombarded by a cruiser task force. Damage is very minor. This is a diversion.

Cagayan is swept and bombed heavily. All of my P-38s squadrons participate, and the they fly in before the bombers. CAP is very heavy, and P-38 losses are heavy too. This is bad in a PDU off game. My P-38Gs have no replacements and won't upgrade to the J model for awhile. But the mission is important: to shut down the biggest airbase on Mindanao and aid the Zamboanga landings. Bombers follow up and do well, but don't catch many fighters on the ground.

13 Bettys escorted by 13 Nicks attack the big carrier task force. CAP is over 250 fighters. No enemy survives. Then 33 Nells escorted by 26 Zeros attacks. The Zeros do rather well, holding off the F6Fs for quite awhile, but are eventually overwhelmed. One Nell drops its torpedo, but misses. Heavy, if not complete, enemy losses.

I attacked Magwe's oil and airfield today. 28 Liberator II's arrived first, and paid the price. No sweeps were planned. I don't know if this was an oversight or planned. Heavy bombers then arrived and did light to moderate damage to the oil. Oil at Magwe is now 69 undamaged and 232 damaged, according to mouseover.

Bombing of Jolo shows the Bandasan SNLF there. I should be landing enough.

I bombed the enemy troops on the road near Akyab. I'll do the same today, and combine with a land attack.

Zamboanga and Jolo will be invaded today. Tawi Tawi will have Aussie paras drop on it. With enemy carriers move west to the northwestern tip of Borneo, my landings are safer for at least a day. I have to be alert to the possibility of Walker moving his carriers down the west side of Borneo, to get in behind my forces. I don't think this will happen, given the size of my airbases on Celebes. It would be ugly for him.

[Dirtnap86]

Good luck shutting down Cagayan. PDU off means he can't jump everyone to Tojos right?

[apbarog]

Yes, it is PDU off, so we both have to make do with lots of plane types that a PDU game would disregard. I much prefer PDU off now, after trying it. The game is so much more interesting with varied combat, instead of both side's best plane going up against each other everywhere. Lots of issues to deal with. Like the low replacement rates of P-38s that I'm dealing with now.

[apbarog]

19 Sep 43

Near Zamboanga, sub Pompano finds heavily damaged RO-105, but misses with 2 torpedoes. Near Taytay, enemy subchasers get minor hits on sub Tinosa. Tinosa was transiting though the island chain, in the shallows, on the way back to base, already with minor damage.

Zamboanga was bombarded with minor effect. Troops then began to unload. The same for Jolo. Lots of friendly non-combat troops are disabled in the landing, as I landed them with the invasion at Jolo. I wanted to land quickly here. Maybe I should have waited. Followup troops, as well as some attackers like armor, haven't arrived at Zamboanga yet.

Fighters sweep Magwe. 2 P-47 squadrons and a P-40K squadron sweep, and do well. Then P-38s show up but find no remaining CAP.

Friendly medium bombers hit enemy troops on the contested road hex near Akyab. Heavies hit the oil at Magwe again. Magwe oil is now shown as 61 intact and 240 damaged.

Mediums bomb enemy troops at Jolo and Zamboanga.

For the first time, B-24s from the Aleutians bomb the Kuriles, hitting Paramushiro-jima. Damage is very light, and there is no CAP. This is a diversion.

P-38s sweep Cagayan. Then my carriers launch a small strike against a task force at Butuan. 16 SBDs are escorted by 35 F6Fs, but find portions of 6 enemy squadrons on CAP. Some are depleted units from the sweeps at Butuan, but they take a toll on the Allied planes. And the strike was against a tiny minesweeper, which is sunk. I feared a strike like this, into a strong CAP, but I didn't want to restrict my naval strike range in the vulnerable location I was in. If enemy carriers had appeared, I would have regretted that. These things happen.

Nabire, on the east coast of New Guinea, is taken by the Australian 20th LH Motor Regiment, which crosses the 2 hexes from the west coast at Timoeka. Defending the dot base of Nabire was the 8th Indpt SNLF Company, a tiny unit.

The 1st Australian Para Battalion dropped on an empty Tawi Tawi, and captured it. A support unit will land by ship today.

In Burma, the Allies attacked on the road between Cox Bazar and Akyab. Heavy losses for both sides, with 1106 enemy and 1417 friendly casualties. One enemy unit was destroyed. This was a good result considering. Allied units are still in pretty good shape, and just need a few days of rest. The enemy does show movement out of this hex.

Jolo is defended by the Bandasan SNLF and the 37th Construction Co. The 24th Infantry Division, with support of tanks and combat engineers, should take the base today. At Zamboanga, defenders include the 14th Naval Guard Unit and the 64th Construction Battalion. The 1st Marine Division, with a combat engineer unit and the XI US Corps HQ, will attack. The base should fall, although terrain and forts could delay things a bit. A slow battleship for each target will bombard Jolo and Zamboanga.

[jwolf]

This looks like really great progress in the Celebes Sea and Sulu Sea areas. Once you get to January 1944 do you think you could cut off the entire flow of oil and fuel from the SRA?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

This looks like really great progress in the Celebes Sea and Sulu Sea areas. Once you get to January 1944 do you think you could cut off the entire flow of oil and fuel from the SRA?

I checked the scenario -- #28. Since the Allies are ahead historically, things start to snowball on the Japanese - sadly. Troops don't spawn where they are supposed to and get delayed...there isn't enough troops, PPs, AA, AV support, better air frames available.

It just looks grim for Japan. Compare and contrast this with CR & John's game which is a full year later and Japan is/was uber strong.

I have no clue what the Allies will do next, not really, but I am looking forward to it. I always thought that 1st time Allied players with a fair bit of Japanese experience are really difficult. Not so true for 1st time Japanese with Allied experience.

[apbarog]

I think that Walker has lost some of his enthusiasm for the game. His latest comments include that the Allies can pretty much do whatever they want, if massing their carriers and using heavy bombers, preceded by P-38/P-47 fighter sweeps. There is some truth to that, but I replied that a way to stop the heavy bombers is to prevent them from having big bomber bases in range. Easier said than done, I know, but I don't think it is quite that easy in 1943. Facing 200 fighters at Cagayan means heavy losses to the P-38s, which is what occurred. I also mentioned the low replacement rate for the P-38s. Right now the 2 P-38G squadrons are half strength and getting no replacements, and must wait for the J model.

We can't forget that Walker still has a strong navy. Losses for both sides have been unusually light. He's lost some carriers, but still has most of them. He's lost one battleship at most, and it may not have sunk. When he brings it all together in a counter-strike somewhere, it will be tough. My last landings are in the heart of his bases. He sent small strikes of Bettys/Nells, and my 200 fighters on CAP dealt with them easily. If it had been 100 Bettys and 150 escorts, combined with KB, things would have been different. And it still may be different. It's just a matter of when and if Walker responds aggressively.

[jwolf]

ORIGINAL: apbarog

We can't forget that Walker still has a strong navy. Losses for both sides have been unusually light. He's lost some carriers, but still has most of them. He's lost one battleship at most, and it may not have sunk. When he brings it all together in a counter-strike somewhere, it will be tough. My last landings are in the heart of his bases. He sent small strikes of Bettys/Nells, and my 200 fighters on CAP dealt with them easily. If it had been 100 Bettys and 150 escorts, combined with KB, things would have been different. And it still may be different. It's just a matter of when and if Walker responds aggressively.

I've been wondering about this ... in an area like the Moluccas and Philippines, with lots of sea passages and very many bases in every direction ... I would expect some Japanese surface forces to stage some quick hit and run type missions against your landing TFs. Granted these would be risky, but so is the opposite strategy of doing little or nothing.