TOP SECRET ORM + WARSPITE ONLY (Reverse AAR)

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

I notice that the Italian cruiser San Giorgio somehow ended up in Leghorn when it was ordered to La Spezia. I need to have a talk with the Captain.

warspite1

Really? Sorry about that - the instructions were clear so must have been lousy mouse control [&:]

No trouble at all. We all makes mistakes.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: warspite1


warspite1

The British will defend so we need another bomber.

2 x Stuka and Dornier vs Brussels
1 x Italian vs Antwerp

I think to much air against Brussels and to little against Antwerp. Perhaps you should save one Stuka for ground support instead?

The British may indeed defend. Better during the ground strike, I think, than during ground support. But I doubt that he will intercept both ground strikes.

Nailing that artillery is worth a lot. A Stuka gives 50% chance and then CW have something to ponder on. Should he intercept the Antwerp raid or not. With a lousy Italian I think he decides to not intercept. But then we are likely to miss.

warspite1

With the way the dice are going we need +2. That said, if I throw a 1 (or my usual 2 [8|]) on the land combat then it would not matter if we had +2 - it would still not be enough. I don't know, but fact is, Antwerp is not a threat (apart from the ART which we cannot guarantee hitting) but the French are.

I think Antwerp adds a complication because of the shortage of aircraft - so:

One Stuka over Antwerp
One Stuka and the Italian over Brussels

Looks awesome. I just have a last thought. Or pondering. If the Allies intercept the raid against Brussels the Italian bomber will be front bomber. So I would be more comfortable if the worst German bomber (Do 17M?) was added to this raid as a possible front bomber. Or if yet another Italian pilot hits the dust the Germans would consider some extra aid.

Anyway. You do as you think is best. I am just nervous.

[brian brian]

Probably too late for this but your best shot at Brussels is while there are still only two units there. The chit would get the hex right now. Failing that, a priority could be to flipthe ART before it can reach Brussels.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

Probably too late for this but your best shot at Brussels is while there are still only two units there. The chit would get the hex right now. Failing that, a priority could be to flipthe ART before it can reach Brussels.

warspite1

No - my nerves are so fragile at the moment that I think if we were guaranteed that result I might take it (though maybe not).

The problem is we are still not guaranteed the city - even with a chit - as the ground strike is not guaranteed.

[Orm]

The Italian air force in Belgium is under your control.

The 3 strength naval bomber, and the CVP on Kaga, ground strike the Chinese Army one hex NE of Nanning.

That is all before land movement.

Remember to try and have fun.

[brian brian]

It is a tough spot. It is worth being careful to take that hex, including doing some re-org on the flipped corps adjacent, and sending in a second wave of Ground Strikes if necessary. A hex worth HQ Support as well, though it is far easier to use with 2d10. One thing you have going is that the Allied re-org capacity is alteady used - so if you can break through, Gort is toast. The CW ATR is still around though, keep a FTR ready for that.

I like to break strong Allied defenses in Flanders by building Guderian on the first turn, and several pilots over the first two turns, and both new Stukas in J/F 40. Then in M/J, open with an Air Impulse and paste the Allies with 5 Stukas and re-organize all of them with one HQ-A and the ATR.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

The Italian air force in Belgium is under your control.

The 3 strength naval bomber, and the CVP on Kaga, ground strike the Chinese Army one hex NE of Nanning.

That is all before land movement.

Remember to try and have fun.

warspite1

What do you reckon on the fighters required over Brussels? They are bringing in a 4-strength Hurricane which leaves them a 3-strength fighter for the land combat.

We need that ground strike so I could therefore use 2 x 5-strength to get a +2 and leave one 5 left for the Tomahawk? We would still have three weaker fighters and fighter/bombers left for the French counter.

I think this makes sense, but given I couldn't win an air battle that included 2 x +4/-4, I'm not feeling confident so would welcome your input.

[Orm]

I think two 5 fighters sound good. Although the combat will be +2/-1 due to the rounding rule.

[Orm]

Do you plan to use the engineer special ability on the Brussels attack?

[warspite1]

Yes. I have to.

This gives 3:1 (36:11) and the CW can bring in another 4 points. The Germans can manage 11.

Realistically if just one bomber gets through then we can kiss goodbye to 4:1, but if not, then we should be able to get it. I was planning on bringing all three remaining bombers into play and using the two remaining single engine fighters if the Tomahawk is brought in.

3:1 = 60% chance of success
4:1 = 80% chance of success

With the ART free to move into Brussels, its now or never [&:]

[Orm]

Then is it not possible to let the ENG support the 9-4?

And since the ENG is forced to be the first loss is a 5-4 really needed as a possible second loss? Getting a stronger infantry to the attack gets a few percentages closer to 4:1.

[Orm]

Italy ponders on capturing Tunis. And maybe advance the TERR a bit towards Algiers. However, by moving the TERR it becomes disorganized and it is OOS so it will become wide-open for counterattacks if CW should transport a unit to North Africa.

Any thoughts on this?

Italy plans to rebase their ATR to the German paratrooper to assist it should the need arise. And also suggest that the German ATR transport the German MTN to Olbia. The transport to Olbia needs a air move and I am not sure there is a enough German air moves at the moment.

Should the Italian NAV transfer North where it can either port strike CW TRS. Or harass the British navy?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Then is it not possible to let the ENG support the 9-4?

And since the ENG is forced to be the first loss is a 5-4 really needed as a possible second loss? Getting a stronger infantry to the attack gets a few percentages closer to 4:1.

warspite1

The 5-4 is to be used as a second loss. Replacing this with another unit (haven't checked if there is a 7-strength spare) does not materially alter the situation if the CW continue to get lucky in the air.

I thought the ENG had to be stacked with the unit to give the benefit? If not then there is no reason not to.

[Orm]

And maybe the 88 should attack instead of the 3 strength ART? It could attack and fire against possible CW air support.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

Then is it not possible to let the ENG support the 9-4?

And since the ENG is forced to be the first loss is a 5-4 really needed as a possible second loss? Getting a stronger infantry to the attack gets a few percentages closer to 4:1.

warspite1

The 5-4 is to be used as a second loss. Replacing this with another unit (haven't checked if there is a 7-strength spare) does not materially alter the situation if the CW continue to get lucky in the air.

I thought the ENG had to be stacked with the unit to give the benefit? If not then there is no reason not to.

My point is that if a second loss is needed then it might as well be a 7 strength infantry. Every point might count.

The ENG must stack with the unit it gives benefit to. However, I thought the 9-4 could be moved to the same hex as the ENG.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Italy ponders on capturing Tunis. And maybe advance the TERR a bit towards Algiers. However, by moving the TERR it becomes disorganized and it is OOS so it will become wide-open for counterattacks if CW should transport a unit to North Africa.

Any thoughts on this?

Italy plans to rebase their ATR to the German paratrooper to assist it should the need arise. And also suggest that the German ATR transport the German MTN to Olbia. The transport to Olbia needs a air move and I am not sure there is a enough German air moves at the moment.

Should the Italian NAV transfer North where it can either port strike CW TRS. Or harass the British navy?

warspite1

I'll take a look tomorrow as I need to turn in. Tunis move is good if Brussels falls and the CW have other things to worry about. Sadly if Brussels holds out then, as you say, the Allies can destroy the Italian with little trouble. Sadly we won't know (a) before committing to (b)...

[Orm]

Or if Brussels falls they might not want to move additional units to France...

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

Then is it not possible to let the ENG support the 9-4?

And since the ENG is forced to be the first loss is a 5-4 really needed as a possible second loss? Getting a stronger infantry to the attack gets a few percentages closer to 4:1.

warspite1

The 5-4 is to be used as a second loss. Replacing this with another unit (haven't checked if there is a 7-strength spare) does not materially alter the situation if the CW continue to get lucky in the air.

I thought the ENG had to be stacked with the unit to give the benefit? If not then there is no reason not to.

My point is that if a second loss is needed then it might as well be a 7 strength infantry. Every point might count.

The ENG must stack with the unit it gives benefit to. However, I thought the 9-4 could be moved to the same hex as the ENG.

warspite1

That depends on there being units spare - without the game set up I cannot check tonight.

[Orm]

The situation is more complicated in China than I thought so I will delay the final decision for the Japanese movement until tomorrow as well.

Turns out that I should have made a Japanese rail move. [:D]

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Or if Brussels falls they might not want to move additional units to France...

warspite1

Possibly - but I don't think they've gone to the trouble of two HQ in France just to bail out at the first sign of trouble.