Islands of Destiny: RA 5.0 Japanese Side

[John 3rd]

Luzon is solid presently. Have about 125,000 supply, Forts ranging from 3-6, and a good amount of Air Support. Three hexes have CD and there are 5 full strength IDs present.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

OK, Jeb Stuart, get OFF your damn horse!! [:-][:-]

No adventure in Burma. It would be like your landing in India in your epic game vs Dan back in old WITP days when I rescued your economy. Useless, but it had you doing something.

ANY operations or placement of these troops has to protect your economy and/or the Home Islands. Explain to the General Staff (me and others) how an adventure in the southern DEI would serve that purpose?? Placing or using them where you could be subject to intense bombardment from his Navy will not help unless behind massive forts (5 or larger).

Economics Minister Benoit:

Painful but good commentary.

If Burma--Thailand is useless then I come back to attacking the base of his salient. His Navy is ELSEWHERE and this is a backwater. I could unite the Fleet and stand a good chance of taking several of these locations. It, potentially, could force him to turn south and buy time elsewhere

OR

he could ignore it just as everything else and move forward...

[John 3rd]

It simply boils down to:

taH pagh taHbe'

Is that enough Klingon GEEK for you?!!

[JohnDillworth]

removed due to crankiness

[ny59giants]

Economics, Economics, Economics!!!

Any move now needs to be to preserve and prolong the use of yours OR make the Allies tend to their LOC (line Of communications). Right now his salient is not very wide and has required Dan to use DS to shepherd any sizable convoy up to Luzon. Plans would be to take advantage of that.

[John 3rd]

A serious attack from the south aimed at taking those bases back would serve to:

1. Draw his forces away where we could be prepared to launch a massed attack by land and sea at his main bases (Naga--Lepaspi) with the hopes of attriting his airpower AND damage those 100s of ship disbanded in port.

2. (If no response) then allow for the base of the salient to be cut FORCING him to add more escorts to fight any convoy through.

There are enough Japanese warships in the DEI to carry this southern attack forward while having the Kido Butai and EVERY other warship available ready to attack from the north. A logical waiting place that is close enough to threaten within 2 days would be Okinawa. He is unable to recon it as yet. Could gather AKE and support shipping under a protective fighter umbrella.

Might work...

[Chickenboy]

I think we can all work with John to explain calmly what his choices are. Then let him make his own choice.

This video at demonstrates the methodologies with which we need to present both sides of the argument and make our case. Objectively. Thoughtfully. Calmly. Please start at 0:42. Substitute the phrase "Mason" with "Japanese Fanboi" for the proper effect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dlpb_LWZIvg&sns=em

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
Is there an angle that I am not seeing here? Serious question.

PS Chickieboy: PLEASE keep up your commentary. It is ALWAYS welcome.

You are running on scant mobile reserves for the theatre. Putting them 1000 miles from the critical front is, in essence, locking them out of meaningful action for several months. You might not get them back at all.

If Luzon is locked up so tight, then use them to destroy his bastions on Cebu or Leyte or some of the other central PIs. Crush them, extricate and repeat. At least this way your mobile arm will be nearby enough to quickly introduce them, let them kill the enemy LCUs and get them out.

Narrow Dan's front further by getting him down to a small handful of bases in the PIs. That would make them bases that he'd have to defend with his fleet and air. Bases that you could bombard on a regular basis. As it is now, he can rotate his bases around after building them up at his leisure.

Keeping a reserve in the area of Luzon-Okinawa-Formosa to act on immediate threats is a basic as I see it. What do you have there ready to respond to an Allied grab of some of the islands in the Luzon strait? The Chinese coast? Vietnam, including a coup de main on CRB?

I'm sure you recall some of his previous predilections at capturing a Chinese port city and dumping 1.0x10^6 supplies and men on it? If he does that and the Chinese can trace an LOS, you've got a can of worms with the Chinese now too.

None of these contingencies can be effectively countered with the cream of your LCU crop bogged down in Burma-Thailand.

There are still options to capture and kill some of his LCUs in a closer region. Doing this can also keep your forces close at hand for rapid response.

[John 3rd]

Basic issue with this thought is that if I keep a 'mobile reserve' as detailed above then HOW is it delivered? His 1.0x10^6 is unfightable. It is that simple. I could have 4 ID on ships READY TO GO with 500 planes on CAP and he would go right through it. Nearly EVERY fighting ship in the US and Allied Navies is present. Legaspi alone has nearly a dozen small STF sitting there protecting the base from attack by sea. Can you imagine what would be there at the POINT of attack?

HOW

DO

YOU

FIGHT

THAT??!!

Maybe I just cannot to the 'terrible math' but I don't see any chance of a reaction force surviving to land at some endangered point. It will be destroyed AT SEA and lost for no real reason or chance of success. How am I wrong here?

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I think we can all work with John to explain calmly what his choices are. Then let him make his own choice.

This video at demonstrates the methodologies with which we need to present both sides of the argument and make our case. Objectively. Thoughtfully. Calmly. Please start at 0:42. Substitute the phrase "Mason" with "Japanese Fanboi" for the proper effect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dlpb_LWZIvg&sns=em

This nearly made me spew my tea! Well done.

[AcePylut]

A serious attack from the south aimed at taking those bases back would serve to:

1. Draw his forces away where we could be prepared to launch a massed attack by land and sea at his main bases (Naga--Lepaspi) with the hopes of attriting his airpower AND damage those 100s of ship disbanded in port.




Why do you think it would draw his forces away?




2. (If no response) then allow for the base of the salient to be cut FORCING him to add more escorts to fight any convoy through.



Meanwhile - as you're wasting 5 ID in Burma, he's closing in on the Home Islands. That's where the war is going to be won or lost. Not Burma.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

A serious attack from the south aimed at taking those bases back would serve to:

1. Draw his forces away where we could be prepared to launch a massed attack by land and sea at his main bases (Naga--Lepaspi) with the hopes of attriting his airpower AND damage those 100s of ship disbanded in port.




Why do you think it would draw his forces away?




2. (If no response) then allow for the base of the salient to be cut FORCING him to add more escorts to fight any convoy through.



Meanwhile - as you're wasting 5 ID in Burma, he's closing in on the Home Islands. That's where the war is going to be won or lost. Not Burma.

No. I am saying in lieu of doing the Burma Gambit. Use the troops for cutting the bottom section of his salient off.

[adarbrauner]

My first leading thoughts (in your situation) would be:

- 1st: is Formosa and the WHOLE home Islands sufficiently protected and prepared?

- 2nd: where can I hit where his fleet is not present?

ALL (stressed) the rest, is clutter.

[AcePylut]

The way I see it - to cut off that salient, you're going to have to send troops across open terrain, far from a friendly airforce base. Not sure you're going to be able to cover your ground forces with enough CAP to prevent your troops from becoming slaughtered. Not to mention you only have like 1 or 2 air bases in range. If they get shut down, you have no air cover and will shortly have 5 trashed JAP ID's.

I don't see this attack gaining you any time or delaying the inevitable US advance one iota.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

A serious attack from the south aimed at taking those bases back would serve to:

1. Draw his forces away where we could be prepared to launch a massed attack by land and sea at his main bases (Naga--Lepaspi) with the hopes of attriting his airpower AND damage those 100s of ship disbanded in port.




Why do you think it would draw his forces away?




2. (If no response) then allow for the base of the salient to be cut FORCING him to add more escorts to fight any convoy through.



Meanwhile - as you're wasting 5 ID in Burma, he's closing in on the Home Islands. That's where the war is going to be won or lost. Not Burma.

No. I am saying in lieu of doing the Burma Gambit. Use the troops for cutting the bottom section of his salient off.

John,

If I'm Dan, I couldn't give a rip about what you do in Ambon or the Vogelkopf head of P/NG at this point. The so-called 'base of the salient'. You're thinking very two dimensionally about his presence in the Philippines. Ambon is no longer a critical gateway to the Philippines and it's certainly not the answer to the existential threat his presence on Luzon now poses. Yes, at one time, it could have been a greater counteroffensive gesture. Now, it's largely superfluous.

From your screenshot on the previous page, I count 19 Allied bases in the Philippines in the limited screenshot you've provided. That's not including anything in the southern DEI. These include Puerto Princessa to the West (on Palawan) and several islands around Leyte and Luzon. Most of these can be built up to size 5+ AF and port. Within a couple months-tops-he'll have an impenetrable web of mutually reinforcing bases from which to either springboard further onto the Asian mainland, Formosa, Okinawa or the other usual suspects in the area.

These 19 bases (+others) cannot all be heavily garrisoned-yet. Once they are, however, they will be inextricable as a group.
At that point, he need not venture into the narrow waters of the southern DEI to supply troops there. He can crawl up the Eastern / Northern side of P/NG or even come into the Philippines from due East and the Philippine sea, side-stepping the Marianas, Palau, Truk and Rabaul. Yes, the Southern DEI route would be *easier* if he still held it. But with his overwhelming naval strength escorting the supply runs (which don't need to come in that often, by the way), you'd be hard-pressed to challenge the supply runs before they closed within air cover of the now-built Philippines.

Maybe once upon a time, the Southern DEI was more critical to a springboard action into the Philippines. But the Philippines are now largely lost, John. He's got them. The baseline just changed. The line got moved. You've got a number of troops stuck in the wrong place and putting MORE troops in 'wronger' places won't change the enemy's positions meaningfully.

Start putting your head together about a meaningful defense in depth close to home. If you fritter away your defensive opportunities by casting your troops further abroad, you will make the same mistake that the Japanese did IRL-having hundreds of thousands of their ablest warriors stranded from where they are most needed. Failure to buttress your defenses closer to home will hasten the end of this war and meaningful resistance.

[adarbrauner]

Dear John,

I don't come to disqualify or discourage you in this planned "Ardennes" offensive, but we read you despaired a little.

Don't despair.

You don't know what to do with your prized reserves divisions and how to capitalize them?

I would suggest to send a good number of them at Luzon, and start land attacks. Not with the goal to win the battles. But with the goal to start attriting his units and array.

I would accept even higher losses from my side - even on the air. Yes, full air support- at least with caps. I'd rotate the weared down units with fresh ones, and attack continously. If he uses his air support, so then he's not using it somewhere else. This would eat up more and more and more supply from Dan. You have the advantage that you can rotate your forces, air and land, much more easily than Dan.

I would go and on and on, without respite, and in spite of losses in the land and the air. At the end, Dan would be placed in unconfortable position, very unconfortable, with a terrible burden to massively resupply. That shall halt his advance also.

Meanwhile, the KB would remain alert, staring from distance, ready to dive on pray. I'd base it even southern, at TRuk, letting Dan knowing it very well.

I'd keep the mini KB more western, something around northern Borneo or Makassar-Surabaya(now we have it,isn'it?).

You'd like to reconquest some lost territories southern more and dispose of enemy's garrisoning air and land forces, do you?
Me too. You have the islands in Makassar Strait, and in southern DEI. They are close, damnly close to his resupply path. I don't know why haven't you handled them already. Main US Carrier Fleet is not there, isn'it? It is far from it. just keep an eye and watch on her whereabouts and be alert.

Your opinion?

[Chickenboy]

Puerto Princessa is most troubling. From there, he can interdict most of your traffic through the South China Sea, unless it's very heavily escorted. All it would take would be a springboard from there onto Hainan island or the Vietnamese coast to secure the other side, block your railway to China and completely strangle oil and fuel transshipments. Were I to look at a particular locale needing gaijin-removal services, this would be my first stop. Before it gets too strong.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

Dear John,

Gawds, worst words ever [:-]

[BillBrown]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

Dear John,

Gawds, worst words ever [:-]

My name is not John but I got two of those letters.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

Dear John,

Gawds, worst words ever [:-]

My name is not John but I got two of those letters.

Sorry to hear that, Bill. By chance, did either of them contain the phrase, "it's not you, it's me?"