See you in Tokyo Bay - Apbarog(A) vs Walker(J) DBB-B Scen28

[apbarog]

There are always points of vulnerability. I've been using APAs and AKAs for my latest invasions, allowing me to unload all of my troops in one day, and then leave the next day. This lowers the vulnerability to that one day, making Walker guess where they are headed. He is so afraid of my carriers though. Every time we've had a carrier battle, he's come out on the short end. Some of this was luck, some was my moving unexpectedly and catching him unready. He's gotten gunshy, and is preserving his forces. I think he's reinforced Mindanao, so I went around it. I haven't given him a place to have a big land battle yet. The exception is about to be on Java, where I will be encouraging a battle to tie his forces down. We'll see how that goes.

Other opponents are certainly more aggressive, more aggressive than both of us. I've been generally well-prepared with my invasions, but that doesn't mean they aren't vulnerable. I've sent a slow battleship and a few destroyers to protect my landings. That wouldn't stand up to a big raiding battleship force. But my armada looks impressive and that has been enough to keep Walker away.

As I've said before, I believe that his chance was to stop me with my Darwin landing, and at Timor. After that, I had more directions to possible go than he can cover.

[apbarog]

20 Sep 43

Troops and supply continue to land on the invasion beaches. There is no interference.

Northwest of Luzon, sub Perch spots a tanker convoy, and gets 2 torpedo hits on medium tanker Marifu Maru. It is not loaded, but immediate sinking sounds say that it is sunk.

Slow battleship Nevada and a few escorts bombard Zamboanga. It probably wasn't necessary. I had 3 slow battleship task forces in the area for my invasions, and only used Nevada.

Tawau, northeast of Tarakan on Borneo, is invaded. It was empty and will be taken today. No interference.

P-47s, P-40Ks, and P-38s sweep Magwe. Results are good. 14 Zeros and 12 Oscars are downed, for the loss of 4 P-47s and 4 P-40Ks. No bombing today, and none tomorrow. The weather is bad and the bombers are still recovering from the previous raid.

Medium bombers hit enemy troops at Jolo and Zamboanga.

12 B-24s from Tabiteuea hit Makin for the first time, just because. Moderate damage to the airfield. Really nothing to see here.

Basilan, adjacent to Zamboanga, is invaded with an Australian brigade. Just a part of it landed, and since the base is empty, the ships with the rest of the brigade will not unload, and will proceed back to base.

Jolo is attacked by the 24th Infantry Division, supported by the 34th Cmbt Engineer Regiment and the 2nd USMC Tank Battalion. Lots of engineers and base support have landed also. Defending is the Bandasan SNLF and the 37 Const Co. The enemy is eliminated with a 164 to 1 attack, and the base is captured. Jolo is a size 3 airfield already. It needs a day or two of repairs before I'll fly in fighters. Combat forces here start to prep for a new target.

Zamboanga is captured with a 38 to 1 attack. The 1st Marine Division did most of the work, as other support units, like the 766th Tank Battalion, just arrived and did not participate in the attack. The enemy's 14th Naval Guard Unit and 64th Construction Battalion retreat to the east after suffering 1212 casualties. A P-40K squadron flys in to the undamaged airfield.

Today, most of the fleet will withdraw to the south, and start to prepare for the next invasions. I am going to stop detailing my future strategic moves. I think it may be making things more boring for the reader when the future attacks actually happen, but we all already know about them. Things have been going so smoothly lately. I'll keep the reader in some suspense for awhile.

The SigInt today was a bit more interesting than most days. The 79th JAAF was reported to be at Clark. This is the first report of a unit on Luzon that is not at Manila. Manila is heavily defended, but the rest of Luzon does not appear to be. That may be starting to change though.

CS Chitose is reportedly moving to Aparri. Probably escorting something, maybe a troop convoy reinforcing Luzon.

And an AMC is reported to be moving to Cocos Island. A portion of an infantry division has been there for forever. I'm guessing that it is being pulled out.

The most interesting thing to watch in the next turn is that I sent a cruiser task force from Zamboanga to Baybay on Leyte to bombard. Awhile ago, there were AKEs in Baybay's port. I'll see if I can catch something there. If not, it may have Walker scratching his head why I'd go there right now with a bombardment. The ships will return to Zamboanga, hopefully safely, then head south with the rest of the fleet.

[obvert]

You're probably completely aware of the lines, but you are getting close to kami activation distance. Sometimes it can happen unintentionally by rowboat corps (auto-flipping bases).

Here is a look at the PI islands that if in Allied hands and with at least a level 1 field will make kermis active as of 1/44. Distances are measured from Takao and Saigon.

[Dirtnap86]

Surprised that he hasn't converted Chitose to a CVL, especially with the losses he took early in the DEI campaign.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Dirtnap86

Surprised that he hasn't converted Chitose to a CVL, especially with the losses he took early in the DEI campaign.

that is not a done conversion for JFB. There is a lot of utility to get out of the CS for the whole game, and it spends a long time in port for the conversion. The CS can provide really good ASW coverage from a dot base when you are normally kind of low on AV support, or it can escort import convoys, or it can be stuffed with Rufes and Rex and provide meaningful low cap.

I think kamikazes have taken a nerf with all the improved flak out there. At least I really stink with them.

[apbarog]

Thanks for the kamikaze info, obvert. I don't think I'll be changing much when the kamikazes show up. I strongly support most of my big moves. Sometimes I'll sneak something around without support, and get away with it, since Walker is so used to seeing overwhelming forces. I don't think kamikazes will change much really.

Looks like no turn from Walker today. Hopefully one tomorrow.

[apbarog]

21 Sep 43

Off of Iba on Luzon, sub Sawfish spots a task force with CL Kinu, 4 destroyers, and an E boat. Probably a transport/cargo or tanker task force. Interesting, if it is, that Walker is escorting with cruisers now. Maybe the Fletcher raid accomplished something after all.

Sub Scamp spots an E boat task force off of Cam Ranh Bay, and torpedoes E W-12. Sinking sounds heard. This E boat was a minesweeper conversion.

4 Allied cruisers and 6 destroyers bombard Baybay. Damage is moderate, but AG J-3884 is hit by 2 shells in port. I was hoping for AKEs. Some B-24s then hit Baybay's port, finding a light ranged CAP, and get a bomb hit on that same AG.

Another B-24 squadron tries its luck at Cebu's port, but finds a bit stronger ranged CAP. No ground hits.

Walker makes a first major effort to bomb Chungking. There's one Allied fighter unit there, but it is on the ground resting. 21 Zeros sweep. Then 56 Helens and 21 Oscars are escorted by 14 Oscars. Then 15 Sallys are escorted by 14 Oscars. Then 17 Sallys arrive.

P-38s sweep Magwe. There is no CAP.

Allied medium bombers hit enemy troops on the road near Akyab. Decent results. An Allied ground attack is rough on both sides, with casualties for both around 1400. I'm trying to cycle units in and out, so I'm willing to continue. I'm able to keep my troops in supply most of the time, by shipping in supply to Cox Bazar. Walker is probably having more difficulty with supply, although this isn't shown in any of the battles so far. Time to rest a bit and try again.

Tawau on Borneo is taken. All objectives for this round of invasions are now taken. Most shipping is withdrawing to the south.

Something is spotted in the area between Sorong and Babeldaop. The spotting is poor. Can't tell if this is something to worry about or not.

CV Victorious is about to unload its aircraft at Balikpapan. The carrier is due to withdraw in less than 4 weeks.

[jwolf]

Those bases you just captured make a nice looking string of pearls. I think(??) you're set up well now to bypass Mindanao, if you want to do that, and proceed N or NW from that little island chain you just took. I wonder at what point Walker will have to contest your ops, even if the odds are not good for him, because the cost of doing nothing would be too high.

[apbarog]

Walker may send some surface groups in to bombard my new bases. Or he could remain fearful of my airpower. Quite often I withdraw just about all of my shipping after an invasion, as I'm doing now. I don't feel the need to leave a surface group at Zamboanga, just inviting a bigger group to come in and tangle with it, or encourage Walker to concentrate his airpower and make an overwhelming strike. So the bases are a bit open. Zamboanga has a fighter squadron. That's about it for now.

In the meantime, I'm off playing the logistical game again, getting this ready for the next event. My forces are completely prepped for the next landings. My limiting factor is wanting to use all of my APAs for part of those invasions. Other units continue to prep for what comes after that.

Looks like no turn from Walker today.

[apbarog]

No turn again today from Walker. There should be one tomorrow. I spent some time on more planning. Ships are on the way to embarkation points for the next invasion set. I've juggled the order of the invasions after that, based on preparation values and overall advantages. I'd like to accelerate things, but the next landings are big and will take every APA that I have.

I do have plans on using more xAPs for followup troops. I may get burned with this change, but I want to land lots and lots of troops quickly, and all of the APAs aren't enough for a big landing on Mindanao or Luzon.

Taking some more time with planning has been worthwhile. I'm pretty good with the logistics for the "next" invasion, but I sometimes get too focused there and don't look at future landings soon enough. An example is that I have been using Darwin as the primary staging area for my troops. As the front is moving north, Darwin is getting further and further away. I am going to start moving units for future landings to bases closer to their ultimate destination.

[apbarog]

22 Sep 43

Just north of Babeldaob, sub Tunny spots RO-42 and torpedoes it once. It probably sank, but I don't have any confirmation of that.

SBDs at Namlea, next to Ambon, spot a couple of AKs and an E boat at Sorong. Sorong's airfield has been damaged for ages. The base was strongly defended, but although the unit count is still high, the troop count is much reduced. Probably another place that Walker has extracted troops. There is no CAP there, and 32 SBDs bomb the 3 ships, getting 5 or 6 1000 pound bomb hits on each. One AK is not confirmed as sunk, but probably will. The other 2 ships are sunk. There were no troops loaded, but I think the ships just got to Sorong.

Medium bombers from India bomb the oil at Magwe. There is no CAP. Mouseover now shows just 50 oil undamaged. Damage was heavy to the bombers from flak. A couple of planes hit baloons, which was interesting. With thunderstorms moving in, the bombers will rest and return when the weather improves.

US carriers start refueling at Balikpapan. The process is slow, with the port being just a size 4. I'm not in a big hurry. I don't mind the carriers being seen here, and I want to take advantage of the newly captured fuel source.

CV Victorious unloads its planes at Balikpapan and starts to head to Sydney to withdraw. The big CVE task force has refueled and moves to Makassar to await future activities.

[apbarog]

23 Sep 43

Sub Trident spots a big xAKL task force near Phuket, Thailand. Looks a lot like the xAKL task force spotted near Victoria Point about a week ago. It's probably returning from Rangoon.

No other combat. A bunch of enemy search planes downed over Balikpapan, thanks to all of my carriers there.

We're in a bit of a lull as ships move to embarkation points for the next invasions. It will be about 3 days until loading begins. Half of the carriers have refueled at Balikpapan, and started moving away.

One interesting note: very heavy SigInt at Saipan. I've known that Walker has been building Saipan and Guam. Today I "see" over 100 ships in Saipan's port. It's certainly become the center of defense for that area. I'm not going that direction, though.

Today I've moved a bunch of B-24s to Balikpapan. They will bomb Miri's oil for the first time, hopefully preceeded by some F6F sweeps.

[apbarog]

24 Sep 43

BB Oklahoma and escorts bombards Ambon. Ambon is just a target of opportunity, as Oklahoma repositions for future operations. It heads to Lautem for refueling and rearming.

Sub Tuna spots a tanker convoy passing between Formosa and the Philippines. I think the ships are headed westbound. No engagement occurred.

Mid-ocean between Thailand and Borneo, a big xAK convoy is spotted by sub Cabrilla. 4 torpedoes are fired at xAK Mansei Maru, with 3 hitting. The ship is loaded with fuel, and is certainly sunk. With this spotting, and Tuna's, Walker is still using mid-ocean convoy routes from Singapore to Japan.

Bad weather at Miri prevents my big B-24 strike targeting oil.

Recon of Singapore shows lots of enemy carriers. I'll continue to watch here. Singapore is only a couple of days from the action now.

The next turn from Walker will probably not be before Thursday. He's been busy, and has been out of town again. I'll tinker with this turn for awhile. There's always more that can be done, getting shipping moving to needed locations.

The next invasions will be interesting. It won't be a massive one-day landing. It will be a limited first-day landing, hoping to provoke Walker to react with ground units. Then the hammer will fall, with a big landing. The location of the big landing is not set in stone. I have a preferred location, but it just depends on how Walker reacts. The big landing may become a followup landing to a quick, small landing behind the lines, if the small landing finds an empty base. I won't land my big stack at an enemy occupied base that isn't the one I've prepped for.

[apbarog]

24 Sep 43 - Solomons

[jwolf]

It won't be a massive one-day landing. It will be a limited first-day landing, hoping to provoke Walker to react with ground units.

That's an interesting plan. Diabolical, too. I'm very curious to see how and where this plays out.

[apbarog]

24 Sep 43 - Invasion of Java

Here's the details on the next landings. I've spoken a bit about this before. My Java plans are all about timing and opportunity.

Enemy defenses are weak at Banjoewangi, at the eastern tip of Java. There are 2 units there, and forts are building, no doubt. It is clear terrain however. On occasion, when I've had lots of shipping nearby, Walker has moved a sizable unit into Banjoewangi quickly, and then when no landing occurred, moved it back out. So he has a quick reaction force waiting for a landing. Soerabaja has about 20,000 troops. Malang is well defended, and is a strategic bottleneck between a landing at Banjoewangi and getting to Soerabaja, since it is a mountain hex. I think there is an enemy division here, and that's plenty to stop an advance from the east. Finally, I know there is an tank division at Batavia.

My plan will unfold in phases, and these phases are contingent on Walker's responses.

Phase 1 - Banjoewangi landing. US 41st Infantry Division with armor and artillery, all fully prepped, should take the base fairly easily. There is some risk of Walker using a rapid reaction force to reinforce before I can take the base. With the clear terrain, I'd encourage any enemy reinforcement here. I can pound the enemy troops heavily by air and by sea in the clear terrain. I don't think Walker will reinforce here though. Supporting engineers and base units will land with the attackers.

Phase 2 - All of the other red-circled bases have units prepping for them. A large force, with a huge Chinese corp and 2 Indian divisions, along with lots of support, are fully prepped for Soerabaja. The other targets have a unit or two prepping for it. An Indian LRP para unit is fully prepped for Tjepoe. An armor unit is prepped for Loemadjang. A small para unit is prepped for Semarang. A small unit is prepped for Probolinggo.

I will wait some amount of time after the Banjoewangi landing before proceeding. I want to see what Walker's reaction is. I expect to see a movement to the mountainous hex of Malang, to cut off the eastern tip of Java. I would like to see units move out of Soerbaja to do this. I could see other units arrive, maybe even the tank division at Batavia. I need to see what happens before proceeding.

My goal is to take Soerabaja. If the defenses there are weakened, I want to land the Chinese and Indian units directly on Soerbaja. Other bases will be invaded to prevent further reinforcements of the area.

In summary, I want to see Walker reinforce the Malang area and weaken Soerabaja. If this doesn't happen, I'll make my big landing at a base that I've already captured. My goal is not to overrun Java quickly. I don't think that I'm landing enough troops to make this possible. I want to see enemy troops tied down on Java, and maybe even more sent to Java. I do want to capture Soerabaja. The shipyard would be very handy. So I'm hoping to "steal" the base with a quick surprise landing there.

APAs are visible on the map just south of Waingapoe. They are proceeding at best speed to Port Hedland, where the Chinese and Indian units, and support, are waiting. I will start loading for the Banjoewangi landing in the next turn. I will be using the less efficient xAPs for that landing, counting on my air support and combat ships to guard the landing. All APAs are committed for the big followup attack.

After all landings are complete, Java will become a war of attrition. Invasion shipping will immediately go to the next ports of embarkation for the next invasions, which will follow quickly. Walker should be focused on Java at that point. In the meantime, I'm moving troops for these later invasions to bases closer to the action. I want the landings to occur back-to-back, as quickly as possible.

[jwolf]

I admire your careful thought and preparation for this op. How long until the first landing?

[apbarog]

A day or two of loading at Makassar. Then one day to approach Java, then another to start landing. So, about 4 days till the first landing. Still hoping for a turn today.

[apbarog]

25 Sep 43

There is now heavy air ASW working the west coast of Luzon, particularly west of Manila. Many Lilys there now looking for my subs.

Sub Wahoo spots a small task force near Taytay. 2 torpedoes miss xAK Syoka Maru. This task force went to one of the bases on Palawan (forget which one). 3 ships were spotted during the day. I won't place naval bombers in the area to get them, since enemy bases on Mindanao are closer, and heavily capped.

Near the China coast, not far from Formosa, sub Aspro spots a cruiser task force, but 4 torpedoes miss DD Akatsuki.

Sub Runner is tracked by a patrol boat near Bataan. No hits. A reengagement occurs, and 2 torpedoes miss PB Eguchi Maru #4.

I sent a tiny minesweeper to Tarakan. AM Dubbo starts to slowly sweep mines at the enemy base.

2 F6F squadrons from Balikpapan sweep Miri. There is no CAP. Lots of B-24s hit the oilfields at Miri. Mouseover shows 135 damage from today alone. 166 are undamaged. We'll go again. It was a bit tempting to leave the oil undamaged, and work on capturing the bases myself, but I don't plan on going that direction on Borneo in the near future.

Loading for the first Java invasion begins today at Makassar. Other followup troops begin loading at Darwin. Carriers are gathering around Makassar.

The interesting development for today is that there are suddenly 133 enemy fighters at Hansa Bay on New Guinea, when there were about 20 yesterday. Only 100 at Rabaul now, so most, if not all, came from Rabaul. I wonder what is going on here. Could be that Walker sees my ground troops starting to maneuver to block his possible attempt at rescuing his trapped troops. But what could a bunch of fighters do? Only thing I can come up with is that he could have noticed my many task forces leaving the Solomons and heading toward Horn Island on the way to Darwin. If he moves in bombers, these task forces could be vulnerable. Maybe he'll use the fighters for escort. I don't know really. I don't think he's seen very many of those task forces.

[Macclan5]

ORIGINAL: apbarog
The interesting development for today is that there are suddenly 133 enemy fighters at Hansa Bay on New Guinea, when there were about 20 yesterday. Only 100 at Rabaul now, so most, if not all, came from Rabaul. I wonder what is going on here. Could be that Walker sees my ground troops starting to maneuver to block his possible attempt at rescuing his trapped troops. But what could a bunch of fighters do? Only thing I can come up with is that he could have noticed my many task forces leaving the Solomons and heading toward Horn Island on the way to Darwin. If he moves in bombers, these task forces could be vulnerable. Maybe he'll use the fighters for escort. I don't know really. I don't think he's seen very many of those task forces.

Nice update - thanks.

Assumption: Once an IJN player has lost strategic initiative (as you opponent has) the biggest challenge is to counter punch and regain a portion of strategic initiative to make the Allied player react - divert forces and supplies - buy time for the development of defenses and or deployment of new Carriers.

Do you have good RECON on those Japanese Force trapped inland in Northern NG ? Are there entire divisions ? Still out of supply ? As I recall they have been there for some time? Is he flying in supplies to them ?

1) Noted South West movement from Madang
2) Massive air cover to Hansa
3) Currently from IJN spotting (speculation)- lots of troop withdrawals from the Coral Sea and convoys of transports on the way through past Horn...

If I were an IJN player having lost significant carrier assets (to repair or sunk) I think my best and only hope to seize the strategic initiative is to counter punch back to Port Moresby once again. Liberate or save troops, supply them, and try to interdict your pipeline to Darwin and /or Java Sea. Perhaps the Coral Sea in general... he obviously has the air assets to do so.....

He probably cannot seize the initiative back in Borneo and can only dig in in the Philippines...

He doesn't look to loose anything in the very near term in Burma i.e Rangoon et al. He is on the defensive but your skirmishes are still at the edges.....