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[Mayhemizer_slith]

I just tested how Barbarossa would start if we get initiative and fine weather.

Not very good, they have good defense. Germany gets only 6 automatic attacks during first impulse.

[AllenK]

I'm surprised it's as much as 6. I think the 'Lightning War' phase has probably passed the Axis by now [:(].

I hope we get initiative. I could have done with one more impulse last turn for Japan.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

I get 6 units but I need to use 2 planes in Lithuania. Germany gets over river line.

[Centuur]

But it's better than if you wait for the hammer to fall. If you can DoW the Soviets in an impulse with fine weather, I would do so. It's better to align the Rumanians before the Soviets make the decision to DoW them (and bomb the oil fields into a huge pile of rubble during the surprise impulse).

[AllenK]

I'm with Peter on this one. 6 units, somewhere between 12 and 18 BP's for no loss, would be a great result for the Axis at this stage. Short of some unlikely disastrous moves by USSR, this isn't a grand campaign of conquest. It's about killing as many Soviet units as possible so production is spent on rebuilding rather than getting stronger and taking ground to buy time. Hopefully you can get to a decent river line to hold.

It' wasn't that long ago near suicidal attacks were being launched in Spain. I suppose this new caution is a consequence.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Yes, Germany attacks as soon as we get fine weather and Aligns Rumania right away.

Germany leaves 2 fighters to protect oil fields.

[AllenK]

Forwards. If not to victory, then let's make our defeat glorious.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: AllenK

Forwards. If not to victory, then let's make our defeat glorious.

That's the spirit. However: advance with caution...

[AllenK]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: AllenK

Forwards. If not to victory, then let's make our defeat glorious.

That's the spirit. However: advance with caution...

Easy to be spirited when it's not my troops in the firing line [:D]

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Game 1.

If Allies win initiative, should we reroll?

I say yes. We are doing so bad anyway. BoB will be almost empty of surface ships, submarines may put northern Spain OOS.

[AllenK]

Certainly a re-roll. As well as Biscay, Japan needs to go first to at least attempt to rescue a looming problem in China.

[Centuur]

The more you ask for a reroll, the less impulses you will get. The higher the Axis initiative, the less impulses the Allies will get in later turns...

Make your calculations very carefully before deciding on this. Take into account the chances of getting bad weather too, before making a decision. And than take into account that you have exactly the same percentage of success as on the first die rolls made...

I've often concluded that asking for a reroll was foolish, because of this effect. If the Allies win the die, let them go first...

[AllenK]

You've lost me a bit on this one.

Asking for a re-roll affects the initiative track. How does that translate into number of impulses?

Edit: Factoring in the potential weather does make sense.

Edit 2: From Japan's perspective, I've a HQ-INF, INF and MIL that can be put back in supply and possibly take out a CAV Div if the Axis win the initiative. If they lose, those units will probably be pocketed and no immediate prospects of relief. In those circumstances, I'd go for the re-roll every time.

[Centuur]

It's all about turn length. The advance of the impulse number gives you the chance of the turn to end. So, the side which has the initiative and moves first, has the highest chance of getting 1 impulse more than his opponent. This is what almost every new player thinks and acts on. So, new players tend to ask for rerolls a lot.

However there comes the initiative track. This track is changes by the following occurrences:

It's moved in your opponents favour, if you got both the first and the last impulse in the turn. The chance if you get an impulse more than your opponente if you move first is pretty high...
It's moved in your opponents favour, if you ask for a reroll.

Thing is, as the Axis, you want stay as high as possible in the initiative track. Why? Because it gives you the opportunity to force the Allies to follow your decisions on who moves first. It gives you the opportunity to move first in turns when it really matters (first turn of Barbarossa in 1941, or first turn of war with Japan against the CW/US, f.e.) and it gives you the opportunity to say to your opponent: "well, it's winter, weather is probably going to be very bad, you go first", since I want to use the +2 modifier in the coming summer.

If you make a statistical calculation on the number of impulses you will get, when you always go first if you win the initiative die rolls, you find yourself with a lesser number of impulses if your opponent simply accept the die rolls and makes his decision on the fact: "if it doesn't matter, my opponent goes first". It almost comes back on average on 3 impulses each year. That's a lot. That comes with the modifiers on the initiative die rolls.

When I play the Allies, I always make my decisions on initiative by following the die rolls. Only if things look like I need to go first to prevent a double move and things might really get me in trouble I might think about rerolling. I let the Axis go first, whenever it's save to do so. Why? I want that +2 modifier in the turns when it really matters. In 1944 and 1945, when I'm pressed for time. Same with the Axis. If the Axis have got a modifier in 1944, that really helps against an Allied double move and might save the day at the bitter end...

[Mayhemizer_slith]

German plans for impulse

No DoW during rain (I assume USSR can't DoW on Germany, correct me if I'm wrong).

Germany takes combined

TRS and AMPH to Baltic Sea box 3. MAR loaded on TRS and strongest 4 moving INF on AMPH. When we attack I will invade and paradrop behind USSR lines.

Germany sends FW190 and Bf110 to BoB box 2, NAV intercepts.

No ground strikes in Spain unless they are OOS, in that case I need to take a look what I do. Germany needs 1-2 rebase missions in East Prussia.

No rail moves.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

I'm ready continue game 1 (assuming latest patch fixed all problems) if you give instructions. German instruction are above if you start our impulse.

[AllenK]

We need Orm to update to the latest version and redo from the reinforcements step. From my test run through, the problem with factory repair seemed to have been resolved in the latest hot patch. I'd do it myself but the instructions left on the game thread don't include Orm's Major Powers and there isn't enough information to know how he placed his pilots and reinforcements.

It looks like Orm will be offline for a couple of days.

Once the new file comes through I will still need to correct the disorganised Jap FTR but that will be pretty straight forwards.

I'd rather do it this way than continuing with the game save file where I manually changed the factory status as, although it appeared to work, I can't be sure I have changed everything I needed to.

If everything that needed to be changed hasn't been, we don't know whether or not we are storing up problems for later.

[AllenK]

Okay, now we're back up and running, what are the Barbarossa plans once the weather is fine.

Looking at Orm and Warspite's game, I think the advice given about concentrating on one front and making it the southern one, due to the weather, looks sound.

What do you think?

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Yes. Game is lost but I try to kill as many units as possible.

Para drop and invasion to Estonia to force USSR react. After first impulses (I cross some riverlines in north) tanks will drive to southern front.

[AllenK]

Sounds a good plan.