The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[DW]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

From the map annotations: "But it looks like [John] is not yet ready to commit his carriers." I can understand his apparent reluctance at going against a presumably superior foe, but the relative balance of strategic power is not likely to improve for the Japanese at this point. And if Luzon is not the hill to die for, then what is?

I think John knows he needs an engagement where he achieves a wildly disproportionate victory to alter the strategic situation, and he's willing to give up important territory in the hope that an opportunity for such an engagement presents itself.

I think John is pursuing a forlorn hope as Canoe is too good of a player to make the sort of mistake that he would be required to make for such an opportunity to present itself, but I don't think it's an irrational strategy.

The only other option is to throw away his only hope for victory in a likely useless attack.

[paullus99]

I don't mean to be overly harsh.....John's got to be under a lot of self-induced pressure. He doesn't like to lose & now he's having to face the music of past choices.

It'll be interesting to see how the end-game plays out here.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

With regard to fighters escorting bombers, I see similar results whatever the quality of the fighter and fighter pilot. Corsairs get chewed up; Hellcats too; Lightnings too. Thunderbolts perhaps not quite as bad, but it doesn't make sense to accept 1:1 Thunderbolt results on escort missions when they would score 2:1 or 3:1 by sweeping.

Do you sweep with individual squadrons CR, or try to assign LRCAP to support your sweeps? Are you facing subpar resistance in terms of radar and layered CAP. I can only imagine getting 2:1 or 3:1 with P-47 sweeps.

[Canoerebel]

Joseph, I'm not positive I understand your question, but I'll answer as best I can.

I do not mix LCRCAP with sweep missions intentionally, but rarely I might end up with that combination (usually after I've set LRCAP over ground troops and a few days later decide to sweep the hex).

I don't worry about maximizing sweep numbers. Usually my fighter squadrons go in individually or broken up or somewhat combined. I might have 25 Thunderbolts followed by 18 Corsairs followed by 3 Thunderbolts followed by 6 Lightnings, etc.

You'd think that 25 Thunderbolts going up against 100 Franks and 20 Georges would be a bad equation, but it doesn't work that way. Those Thunderbolts tend to hold there own, wearying the defenders and performing decently - usually at least 1:1. Then the later arriving squadrons or elements feast on the tuckered-out enemy fighters, scoring much higher kill ratios.

I keep my Spitfires low - usually anywhere from 10k to 15k, with 12k the norm; Thunderbolts usually take the middle ranges - from 15k to 25k. Lightnings and Corsairs usually (but not always) fly higher, from perhaps 20k to 30k. I seldom have sweeping fighters set higher than 30k.

I may be facing subpar resistance, but I can't say for certain since I don't ask John and he doesn't tell me. I suspect that the biggest factor is pilot quality - I know mine has been good since late 1942, almost always outperforming enemy pilots in good planes. Airfield size might be a factor - I'm almost always flying from big fields with lots of aviation support; I suspect, but I'm not positive, that John may often have supply or aviation support issues.

I'm also willing to allow my 4EB to absorb losses - sometimes heavy losses. I imagine the JFBs reading John's AAR revel in the number of kills he gets. From a pure ratio standpoint it may look that way, but usually there are many layers to the strategy. For example, once I used 4EB daily for about eight months to keep Port Moresby suppressed. That helped turn the area into a vortex that drew John's rapt attention far, far longer than it should have. We know that he kept KB posted in the Solomon Sea while the Allies were (relatively speaking) unopposed in the DEI. I lost a lot of 4EB in that campaign, but I am persuaded that the net results were decisively favorable to the Allies. The number of 4EB I lost were a truth, but far from the whole truth.

[Canoerebel]

6/18/44

The Great Race: Mini Death Star and The Herd are midway through the Gulf of Carpentaria. KB is at Saipan and Mini KB at Soerabaja. I think KB is out of position to try for a block at this point, but I'll know for certain tomorrow. Once Mini Death Star nears the big Allied airfields in the DEI (Boela and Sorong) it should be relatively safe.

So what are Mini KB and KB doing at this point? Four days ago, the former is making for Miri and the latter appears to be making for the South China Sea. Now they've headed in the opposite direction. Mini KB is not strong enough to take on Mini Death Star. John got an eyeful of high detection today, so he may be doing all these calculations.

Major on-site reinforcements have finished loading at Boela and Sorong, commence loading tonight at Manokwari, and begin loading at Morotai the day after tomorrow. Three divisions plus some HQ and support. One div. is bound for Luzon, two for Mindanao.

See map.

Fun House: Aussie shock attack at Miri just barely fails to take the base (the base fell during the Sync Bug version of the turn). The Aussies will have to rest for at least two or three days. John is bringing in a battalion, either by air or fast transport. He may well be able to stabilize the situation. It'll only be temporary, though. Once Death Star and Mini Death Star merge, I can attend to Miri.

I thought I stood down the army at Manila, but failed somehow to give comprehensive orders. At least a few infantry units attacked. These guys will need a few days rest prior to the next attack. 6th Div., in particular, is beat up.

I'll post a separate map of this area later.

Burma: IJA unit on the Tavoy road evaporates. The army advancing on Rahaeng has made 31 miles - perhaps three more days to go.

I'll post a separate Burma map later.

[Canoerebel]

It looks like KB may have 650 or so aircraft...and Mini KB about 300. If those numbers are accurate, John made a major mistake in separating the two forces and keeping them separated for so long. This would explain why he hasn't employed KB against Death Star, even after his subs inflicted major damage on two CVs and sank a CVE.

KB and Mini KB united would have 1,000 aircraft (or more if the totals show on the map are incomplete). I think Death Star currently has roughly 1500 aircraft. John undoubtedly hoped to combine his LBA into an attack, but the chances have been few...and his carriers were out of position (I think).

Mini Death Star has 500+ aircraft, so merging with Death Star will create a carrier force that can take on KB nearly any place on the map. I'll need to watch out for the big airfields on Formosa...but areas without big airfields (Borneo is one such place, the Vietnamese coast is another) are relatively free from major LBA threats.

[Lowpe]

Quite the intelligence coup there CR, someone needs a raise!

[Canoerebel]

Yes, it was (you can see the SigInt report about Shokaku near the top of this page). If I was relying solely on sub detection levels to pinpoint KB's likely location, the pucker factor would be pretty high as Mini Death Star moves west. But with KB pinpointed, no pucker (yet, anyhow).

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Joseph, I'm not positive I understand your question, but I'll answer as best I can.

I do not mix LCRCAP with sweep missions intentionally, but rarely I might end up with that combination (usually after I've set LRCAP over ground troops and a few days later decide to sweep the hex).

I don't worry about maximizing sweep numbers. Usually my fighter squadrons go in individually or broken up or somewhat combined. I might have 25 Thunderbolts followed by 18 Corsairs followed by 3 Thunderbolts followed by 6 Lightnings, etc.

You'd think that 25 Thunderbolts going up against 100 Franks and 20 Georges would be a bad equation, but it doesn't work that way. Those Thunderbolts tend to hold there own, wearying the defenders and performing decently - usually at least 1:1. Then the later arriving squadrons or elements feast on the tuckered-out enemy fighters, scoring much higher kill ratios.

I keep my Spitfires low - usually anywhere from 10k to 15k, with 12k the norm; Thunderbolts usually take the middle ranges - from 15k to 25k. Lightnings and Corsairs usually (but not always) fly higher, from perhaps 20k to 30k. I seldom have sweeping fighters set higher than 30k.

I may be facing subpar resistance, but I can't say for certain since I don't ask John and he doesn't tell me. I suspect that the biggest factor is pilot quality - I know mine has been good since late 1942, almost always outperforming enemy pilots in good planes. Airfield size might be a factor - I'm almost always flying from big fields with lots of aviation support; I suspect, but I'm not positive, that John may often have supply or aviation support issues.

I'm also willing to allow my 4EB to absorb losses - sometimes heavy losses. I imagine the JFBs reading John's AAR revel in the number of kills he gets. From a pure ratio standpoint it may look that way, but usually there are many layers to the strategy. For example, once I used 4EB daily for about eight months to keep Port Moresby suppressed. That helped turn the area into a vortex that drew John's rapt attention far, far longer than it should have. We know that he kept KB posted in the Solomon Sea while the Allies were (relatively speaking) unopposed in the DEI. I lost a lot of 4EB in that campaign, but I am persuaded that the net results were decisively favorable to the Allies. The number of 4EB I lost were a truth, but far from the whole truth.

Thanks CR. You're response was just what I was hoping for. My sweeps just don't perform as well as yours or many other AARs, which is the source of much of my frustration. When I send individual sweeps, they get crushed. If I send a squadron of P-47s with 23 aircraft for example, I come back with 9. I get entire squadrons almost wiped out after sweeping. I really think it comes down to my opponent, he knows the air model inside and out. I do not get results like anyone else on the forum having to face low CAP. It's a game winner in my opinion, and right now I have no counter to it. Nothing I do against it gets better results than 1:1. In my game, your example of 25 P-47's going up against 100 Franks and 20 Georges results in wiped out P-47 squadrons. Anyway, thanks for the post...I just wish I was experiencing the success others seem to have with the best Allied planes and pilots. Mine just get slaughtered. Using my 4Es is no better...I lose 50% of my bombers every raid against a strong CAP, in three attacks I'd be out of bombers. I wish I knew the answer, but I don't so I will continue to lose the air war.

[Canoerebel]

6/18/44

The situation in Indochina.

[Canoerebel]

6/18/44

Fun House: see map for details.

[Canoerebel]

6/19/44

The biggest open question has been answered: John has not committed KB to prevent Death Star and Mini Death Star from uniting in the DEI.

See map for details.

[Lowpe]

You still have me baffled. I can't figure out what the big deal is with taking Mindanao. It is just a POW camp, isn't it?

I understand you have a plan. You are sticking to your plan. But, I just don't get it.

I will wait though.

[paullus99]

I suspect he'd like to eliminate potential kamikaze bases in his rear, as he moves closer to the HI...if he can take those bases without taking big risks or committing lots of troops, all the better.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I suspect he'd like to eliminate potential kamikaze bases in his rear, as he moves closer to the HI...if he can take those bases without taking big risks or committing lots of troops, all the better.

Can't see that as being so all fired important. Just a nuisance really.

He flew some Judy out of there not so long ago...but it seems that can be countered easily enough.

From the combat report CR posted Manila is hanging on by a thread. Once Manila falls, the rest of Luzon can't be long.

He had a foothold in Vinh...and didn't pursue it. If you don't want Vinh, then you most likely don't want Samah.

That leaves:

Formosa/Ishigaki/Okinawa/Daito line.

I see the importance of those. I see the importance of Hokkaido and the Jima's. Scratch Jimas' since Saipan is Japanese. And why go after Marianas when you have Luzon?

So, basically I see two ways forward, the other way CR has had ample opportunity to take, and the rest is mop up.

Was it all just one big ploy hoping to draw out the KB? I just don't get it.[8|]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

You still have me baffled. I can't figure out what the big deal is with taking Mindanao. It is just a POW camp, isn't it?

I understand you have a plan. You are sticking to your plan. But, I just don't get it.

I will wait though.

SLOC to free up his CVs from having to escort ships past potentially dangerous large airfields.

The things you don't think about when you never play as the Allies, Lowpe [;)]

[Canoerebel]

paullus has it right. My LOC is a long, narrow one from Luzon to DEI to Oz. It's vulnerable to attack by sea and air, and Mindanao gives John multiple air bases for strikes and patrols. I have the time and the troops to commit there, so I'll proceed. By time, I mean that Peep Show will not begin until all of Luzon is conquered. Originally I figured that would take until August or September, so that I had a couple of months to deal with Mindanao. Luzon may fall sooner, but I should still have time.

[Canoerebel]

Loka has it right too. Both he and paullus are more succinct than I am.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

You still have me baffled. I can't figure out what the big deal is with taking Mindanao. It is just a POW camp, isn't it?

I understand you have a plan. You are sticking to your plan. But, I just don't get it.

I will wait though.

SLOC to free up his CVs from having to escort ships past potentially dangerous large airfields.

The things you don't think about when you never play as the Allies, Lowpe [;)]

I can well understand the huge supply and fuel requirements that the Allies need on Luzon. I do see the narrow path he has.

I just don't understand the shattering importance that Japan prevents the mini DS from making it to the DS. It seems like yesterday's battle.

[Canoerebel]

I can't see how you can't see it. So the failure lies in my "teaching" or explaining.

The convergence of Death Star and Mini Death Star is the biggest thing going right now. It's more important than the Battle of Manila, the Luzon Campaign, and the Indochina Campaign. Things are going well for the Allies at the moment, but this convergence will provide the men, supply, fuel and ships to ramp up things about five notches.

You don't see the significance of bringing in about eight divisions plus support to add to a campaign involving ten divisions? I'm getting an 80% increase in what I can commit to Luzon and future operations. That's huge.