The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

Interesting SigInt tidbits today (and pretty much every day).

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I can't see how you can't see it. So the failure lies in my "teaching" or explaining.

The convergence of Death Star and Mini Death Star is the biggest thing going right now. It's more important than the Battle of Manila, the Luzon Campaign, and the Indochina Campaign. Things are going well for the Allies at the moment, but this convergence will provide the men, supply, fuel and ships to ramp up things about five notches.

You don't see the significance of bringing in about eight divisions plus support to add to a campaign involving ten divisions? I'm getting an 80% increase in what I can commit to Luzon and future operations. That's huge.

Not your fault. Mine I am sure. [;)] I have played a few months of Armageddon with M-M and I was the Allies so I do know the Allied endgame somewhat.

From everything you have posted, Luzon is already done for in fact months ahead of schedule. If those fresh divisions were to unite with the Deathstar and take I don't know, you name it: Cam Ranh Bay (like WITPQS) or anywhere to the east of that all the way to Kyushu, well then I would see that too. And perhaps you will yet.

But go back a month, you basically had Japan cut in half with taking Vinh. Japan's western Army north of Moulmein was trashed. Instead of securing Vinh you took Puerto and Miri and made great strides for Manila.

I guess I was just expecting something on a grand scale that could justify not securing Vinh.

[BBfanboy]

Grand scale moves require DS support and prepped units.
DS is tied to supporting the Philippines/DEI LOC until KB can no longer intervene while DS is away.
Had the big carrier battle happened (with KB defeated) before Vinh was recaptured by the IJA, I am sure things would have been different in the South China Sea.

[Canoerebel]

Vinh was just deception. I took it with a para-unit and had no hope of holding it. But it got John's attention and focused him on Vietnam, where he's still focused, I think. As BBfanboy notes, there were complex practical reasons that detaching Death Star with troops to secure Vinh didn't make sense, long term. You'll probably see why later.

I think, Lowpe, that you're under the impession that the army coming in from the DEI is slated for Mindanao. It isn't. Of the eight divisions + support inbound, two of those divisions will be committed to Mindanao. They've long been prepping for the targets and the targets are worthwhile, for the reasons stated in previous posts.

Of the remaining six divisions, one is prepped for Manila (and has been for a long, long time; it may or may not be needed there). The other five are prepped for Peep Show, the next major operation. Originally I envisioned them assisting with Luzon, a campaign I expected to last through the summer months. They may or may not be needed in that capacity. But Peep Show probably won't take place until Luzon is a fate accompli. Then, roughly six to ten divisions will be available for Peep Show, the next big thing.

I could have lept around, dropping the Luzon campaign to strive for a Vietnam campaign, but in my judgment that was risky and potentially wasteful. It is hard to sustain massive operations deep inside enemy lines. To have Luzon unsecured, and to then move across the South China Sea to engage in yet another major operation, would've been too risky. It would've been "A Bridge Too Far." But taking Puerto Princesa and Miri were in proximity and within my "sphere of influence." No real danger there.

Now, certain players with vision might've done things differently and way better than I've done; but others would gotten too frisky and ended up skewering themselves.

Bottom line: I know what I'm doing and why I'm doing it. I am the python strangling the lame potbellied pig.

[MakeeLearn]

I am the python strangling the lame potbellied pig.

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

I am the python strangling the lame potbellied pig.

< image redacted >

That was pure gold [:D][:D][:D]
Also

ORIGINAL: HansBolter
Everyone posting should try to remember that John will eventually get to read this AAR when the game is finished.
I would recommend showing a bit of deference when it comes to criticizing his decision making and game play.
Better not to foster hard feelings later.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Bottom line: I know what I'm doing and why I'm doing it. I am the python strangling the lame potbellied pig.

I knew I should not have mentioned Vinh.

I am not trying to imply that you don't know what you are doing. Far from it. And I know that the troops aren't bound strictly for Mindanao...you have mentioned Peep show often.

I understand your reasons for not going to Vinh.

To me, the Allies doubling their strength on a deep invasion in mid 44 is normal so I don't take it as anything more than to be expected. I see why you were nervous crossing Horn Island. I don't see it necessarily as an existential threat to Japan....but understand my perspective. I had 20 Allied divisions on Hokkaido at June of 1944. To me this just seems normal...and I hope I am not implying that you are doing poorly or anything.

John is in a good position. He kept the SRA fuel flowing till June of 1944. He has a KB (but I guess in truth he really started with 2). He has a nice VP margin. His economy, to the best of my knowledge, is intact with the exception of a port strike on Hong Kong. He is losing Luzon, but mid 44 that is to be expected for Japan, even a Japan as seriously over modded as his is. If he wasn't losing at Luzon, he would be losing at the Marianas, or the Kuriles, or the SRA.

You pulled off a brilliant conquest of Luzon, so far. From your tone I simply thought the mini DS heralded an immediate fait accompli.

I guess I am a hopeless JFB and can't clearly communicate.[:)] Not like MakeeLearn! What a master, and your colorful description must be inspired somewhat by Scott's Civil War strategy. Well done to you both.[&o]

[Canoerebel]

The Allied effort was, as I've said, front-loaded. The idea was that the whittling of the Japanese navy would pay off in the end. It is. I think John's situation is far more precarious than your synopsis would suggest. And one of the most aggressive players hasn't felt able to use his carriers or combat ships in seven months. He's wobbling.

[Canoerebel]

6/20/44

A busy day across the map, from CenPac to Thailand. I'm going to post a series of smaller maps before concluding with the Fun House Map.

[Canoerebel]

6/20/44

Lots going on in the DEI.

[Canoerebel]

6/20/44

Important attacks to take place tomorrow at Miri and Manila.

[Canoerebel]

6/20/44

Indochina: Promising Allied river crossing and shock attack at Rahaeng.

[CaptBeefheart]

Things are looking good. Pescadores is interesting. There probably is a hefty CD unit here (at least there is in Ironman), so beware of that, but taking that and one or two lightly held bases on the Chinese coast nearby is about as good as taking Formosa. And don't forget that nice shipyard at Hong Kong.

EDIT: Regarding islands with big CD units but no infantry, I like doing big para drops on them. I'm not sure Pescadores would fit that bill, but it's a cheap way to take those kind of bases. Also, prep level for para drops doesn't seem to be a huge factor. Someone please correct me if they've seen otherwise.

Cheers,
CC

[Canoerebel]

Wouldn't a shock attack by paratroopers fully prepped for the target achieve these two things: (1) AV of the unit doubled for prep, and (2) defensive strength halved?

I'm going from memory here on the effects of prep and para-assault, but I think that's right.

The Aussie paratroops are only 33 AV, so doubling that isn't a big deal. But halving defensive strength is (and halving is true whatever the prep level, I realize).

The Aussies were stationed at Kodiak for something like nine months, fully prepped for Attu Island much of that time. Early in 1944, they switched prep to Manila and withdrew from Kodiak. Their transports caught up to the tail end of the Fun House invasion forces just shy of Oz. So they've been basically "training" for more than a year, always a bridesmaid.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wouldn't a shock attack by paratroopers fully prepped for the target achieve these two things: (1) AV of the unit doubled for prep, and (2) defensive strength halved?
Developers came out and said that is a myth.

I'm going from memory here on the effects of prep and para-assault, but I think that's right.

The Aussie paratroops are only 33 AV, so doubling that isn't a big deal. But halving defensive strength is (and halving is true whatever the prep level, I realize).

The Aussies were stationed at Kodiak for something like nine months, fully prepped for Attu Island much of that time. Early in 1944, they switched prep to Manila and withdrew from Kodiak. Their transports caught up to the tail end of the Fun House invasion forces just shy of Oz. So they've been basically "training" for more than a year, always a bridesmaid.

[Canoerebel]

Zoiks. Was the myth originally in the rules? I thought so, but I read the rules eight or nine years ago. That's the kind of thing that sticks pretty well.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Zoiks. Was the myth originally in the rules? I thought so, but I read the rules eight or nine years ago. That's the kind of thing that sticks pretty well.

It was a surprise to me when it was debunked. It was the longest-standing WITP myth taken down that I know of. I don't recall the details of whether it was once that way in WITP or only a myth then, nor if it was ever in the rules (but I think not).

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, players even commonly used a house rule allowing paratroop use only if prep was high (some might've required 100%), in order to prevent abuse of the "halving" rule (or myth, as it turns out). I've always erred on the side of moderation (extreme moderation, really) in using paratroops, for that reason. In this game, I bet I've used them against occupied targets only once or twice.

[Lowpe]

Drop them anyhow, there still maybe some positive effect.

[Canoerebel]

The orders were entered, and the turn sent, last night. So 1st Aussie Paratroops go in at 100%. I "assume" that the AV will be doubled from 33 to 66, so there's that. It certainly won't hurt to have them.

But from now on, I guess I'll mainly use paratroops to take dot hexes and unoccupied bases.