The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

In the map annotations you wrote of part of the KB being between Truk and Saigon, but I suppose that is really Saipan?

The Japanese army at Manila is in awful shape. At this point he would need multiple fresh divisions to make any attempt to hold there. I would guess that is not reasonably possible, though I admit I don't really know just how much the Japanese have to work with at this point.

Japan's best units, three tank divisions and about a dozen IJA 43 squad heavy infantry divisions are what you want to find.

I assume a portion of those would be the fast reserve forces available. Last I heard the 2nd Tank was in Vietnam.

John is charting new territory in defense. He seems very comfortable splitting his forces in front of a superior foe. It all depends if he can accomplish whatever it is he is trying to accomplish.

[Canoerebel]

Oops, yes, I meant "between Saipan and Truk."

2nd Tank Div. is in Indochina. 1st Tank Div. is in China. I don't know where 3rd is.

A lot of Japanese divisions have been battered or destroyed in '44, including: 5 in Burma (12th is still there, cut off), 5 on Luzon (15th and 19th beaten down to 0 AV), one in central Philippines (56th), one (6th) mostly lost at sea trying to reinforce Miri, and one or two beaten up pretty badly in the DEI during Big Tent. That's not crippling to John from a sheer manpower standpoint (it is a down payment), but the way he's played his defenses, it has left him scrambling to find new units to plug leaking dikes.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

... it'll probably also give John heartburn watching Manila crumble the way it has....very similar to what happened in Burma...

It's probably hard for John to see Manila's defenses crumble. Manila is a key hex in the game. Things are going pretty bad for Japan when it falls...and moreso when it falls too easily and/or too early. On a subconscious level, at the very least, this must be tough times for him (I felt the same in early '43 while watching Sumatra fail, at least before I came up with my Plan B).

John isn't showing much interest in his AAR at the moment. He's been very busy at work, but it has been months since he's really searched for cracks to fit in turns. (The last time was when he was jazzed about the Celebes counterinvasion.) He's still doing turns regularly, and I'm very thankful for that. But the excited, energized, Banzai-master who once flipped three to five turns a day hasn't been seen in several months.

[Lowpe]

Most AARs focus on good happenings...which are few and far between as Japan in 44. Any day I had a positive VP day, was a very special day indeed!

So much of the turn is watching bombing runs; moving troops, fortifying, rebuilding shattered squadrons. Not sexy at all.

[Canoerebel]

I can imagine (sort of). John's been undergoing daily massive air raids in Burma since January and on Luzon for a couple of months. Sometimes 30 to 40 strikes a day, every day, on and on. It's gotta get really old.

[Canoerebel]

Have the Chinese created an effective stoppage of the overland transport of oil...or not?

[BBfanboy]

Select the Lang Son hex and press the 5 key to see the propagation from there. That might help you get a view of the supply/resource paths.
Bear in mind it can take the computer up to a minute to do all its calculations and display the flow numbers.

[GetAssista]

Doubt that fuel will seep through there - that's two jungle hexes to traverse around blocks. It has enough trouble coming from Singers if roads are perfectly clear.

Is it possible to keep Japan divisions somewhere on Luzon (Burma/Thai too) in an encirclement forever so that he can't rebuild them in Japan? Is it viable tactics at all for the Allies?

[Canoerebel]

A few notes in follow up:

1. I selected Lang Son and pressed the 5 key...after a minutes or so the map generated some yellow dots in some hexes, all meaningless to me. I'll try again later this morning.
2. John can "suicide" isolated troops if he wants to (advancing them into hexes with Allied troops and attacking, no matter how bad the odds). That'll suffice to destroy his units so that he can rebuild them. At this point in the game, I want him to do that. I need to destroy as many units as possible, (1) to weaken the IJ Army; (2) to affect his replacement pools; and (3) regenerating troops takes supply (I think), which will be a drain on his economy.
3. Australia now has 500k+ fuel; still growing, despite the fuel withdrawn for transport to Luzon. The Allied supply network seems to be functioning efficiently.
4. John has 150k troops on Luzon; of that number, 64k is at Manila. Most or all of the other bases have garrisons of brigade or less strength. What is John's plan for withdrawing? Or does he intend to fight to the bitter end?

[paullus99]

Based on what we've seen so far, he will probably attempt to withdraw cadres via air bridge & rebuild the units in Japan. I suspect that he'll also try to fast transport out units that he can, particularly those in northern Luzon (at least until you shut that down).

It may take the savaging of a convoy or two to make him give up on that idea and settle for what he can airlift out.

I believe, at this point, he's struggling to figure out what his (and yours) next move will be - his first instinct is always to counter-punch, though the bloody nose at Miri and collapse in Burma has probably been what has kept him from making a more decisive move.

Your next move should force his hand - either go all in for some kind of counter-attack or withdrawn to the final perimeter and try to bleed you as you move forward.

[Lowpe]

The 5 key doesn't provide as much information in pbem, simply because it is too much information.

[Lowpe]

Japan does and doesn't have replacement pools like the Allies. Pools like the Allies have does exist for certain items like Mines.

Most ground devices are manufactured by converting armaments into devices. This does cost supply. Unless Japan has done something screwy with their armaments production during the course of the game it is not usually a constraint till mid 45 or later. However, supply generally does turn out to be a major constraint for most Japanese players, but not all.

The manufacture of armaments does need heavy industry. Heavy industry can become a constraint depending what Japan did with expansion of factories that consume heavy industry.

However, once the Russians activate (if the game gets that far) the drain on armaments becomes really, really large and at that point it might become a problem.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

...It may take the savaging of a convoy or two to make him give up on that idea and settle for what he can airlift out.

I believe, at this point, he's struggling to figure out what his (and yours) next move will be - his first instinct is always to counter-punch, though the bloody nose at Miri and collapse in Burma has probably been what has kept him from making a more decisive move.

Your next move should force his hand - either go all in for some kind of counter-attack or withdrawn to the final perimeter and try to bleed you as you move forward.

I forgot to note in the last update that land-based SBDs whacked an merchant TF at Aparri, sinking a half-dozen good xAK and xAP, no troops aboard. John has lost a fairly large number of merchantmen the past few months, but I "assume" he has plenty left at this point in the game.

The next move should trigger a response. He'll have a chance to use LBA combined with KB, if his carriers are in position. That's one reason I'm interested in seeing where Mini KB is off to. It's possible that Peep Show could get underway in a week (more likely two or three weeks). He's not fighting with his complete arsenal if that many carriers are off raiding somewhere.

[Canoerebel]

6/24/44

Battle of Manila: Allied bombers of all kinds hit the Japanese army at Manila, followed by a strong artillery bombardment at the end of the day. The Allies will attack tomorrow, reinforced by a combat engineer unit that is still reduced from the Battle of Batangas. The odds are better than 50/50 that Manila falls tomorrow.

[Lowpe]

If the 2nd Marine 766th Tank Bn and 5th USMC Tank have good prep, I would consider shock attacking with them.

[Canoerebel]

2nd Marine Div. and 5th USMC Tanks are indeed 100% prepped for Manila. So is XI Corps HQ and a couple of arty units. Your partial shock attack idea is a good one. I think I'll do that.

9th Aus. Div. is 91% prepped, but I don't think it'll make it to 100 before the fall.

[Canoerebel]

6/24/44

Fun House: Manila could well fall tomorrow. The Japanese position in Luzon should then become untenable, as Allied air power will maul enemy positions.

Carriers: Mini KB is near Timor; KB (or a significant part thereof) is SW of Iwo Jima and probably heading NW, towards Okinawa. There's a small chance John is vectoring to attack Death Star, which is SE of Mindanao. I can't imagine why he'd choose to attack now, now that DS and Mini DS have merged, so I think the odds are pretty low.

[Lokasenna]

You control the hex sides that the road goes through, so yes - you have stopped anything flowing from Nanning to Lang Song (and points further, in each direction) along that major road.

[BBfanboy]

I can only rationalize the movements of the IJN carriers as covering withdrawal and re-deployment of his troops to prepare for the end game. He has used a lot of fuel on indecision otherwise.

[Canoerebel]

John is moving a heckuva lot of troops around, retrieving them from the DEI and the Pacific and sending them to Indochina, Formosa, Okinawa, and probably other points. That activity has ramped up considerably over the past two months, so he understands the gravity of his position.

Perhaps his carriers are providing protection, but the Mini KB foray still strikes me as unusual. I haven't hit anywhere along his withdrawal corridor, and he knows that Mini Death Star just vacated the area. So I can't imagine he is worried about threats in the Timor area.

He has his reasons, of course. I just can't put my finger on them.