Rematch: Ragnarök - mind_messing (J) vs Lokasenna (A)

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Luzon can be bypassed by the Allies. I did that, only taking it as a backwater operation.

Even if it is relegated to a backwater clearing operation, I'm convinced that Luzon is worth the forts.

The Allied logistical is a wonder in 1945, but without a shipyard at hand, it's a trek back to Pearl for most Allied warships in 1945. Support ships and ARD's can mitigate this to some degree in regards to repairs, but not so for upgrades.

Manilla is the best candidate for the Allies for a late-war repair and upgrade shop. Saigon is on the cards too, but you can't get the bigger warships into the yards. Singers is the only other candidate, and that's about the same in practical terms as a trip to Pearl.

I see it as a supply investment to possibility reduce the number of ships the Allies have operating at peak capacity. Plus, it's more clicks, which is worth remembering in '45.

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

+1

I don't think you will take a drubbing in '43 no matter what you build ... because the allies are still very limited in fighter numbers except for F6F.

It is getting ready for '44 that has to happen as allied fighter numbers and quality start to really increase. Frank is critical to keeping pace. Getting it late '43 negates the allies P47 upgait nicely. [;)]

Where you are weak is the KB until you get A7M ... A6M is just not a match, in addition to everything else, the low DUR just doesn't hold up. F4U/F6F's are just too tough.

It takes a lot to get A7M in early '44, including luck. But you can and if you do, you can really surprise the allies. The Deathstar isn't a Deathstar in early '44 IF you have A7M's deployed in the KB .... particularly if you can CAP the KB with Frank/George. A full alpha strike can get through .... but you gotta trust your LBA CAP ... because I did say FULL ALPHA ... [;)]

As you can see from the "IJ NightMare" chart, after early '44, the KB can't touch the Deathstar. And truthfully, without the A7M, you can't touch it much after 9/43. But, with the A7M, and IF you have LBA cover ... well, you got a chance. After mid-44, I don't even see a chance. I have to keep the KB outta sight, it can only hit AFTER major LBA strikes (+4000 aircraft size) have hit it ...

I've came to realise that hunting CV's is pointless, at least fleet CVs. Planes can get through CAP, but it's slim odds that they get past flak. Once past that, it's slimmer odds still to hit a high MVR CV. Even then, it's even odds as to notable damage - the only recent example I had of a successful hit on a CV was on a Brit carrier, and all that did was make a nice mark on the paint.

Going after the CVE's and amphibs is a much more effective solution in my view, given the fact that they're pretty much dead meat once your past CAP. CVE's tend to burn nicely after the second kami hits, and loaded amphibs are simply the icing on the cake, and good VP's too!

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


I've came to realise that hunting CV's is pointless, at least fleet CVs. Planes can get through CAP, but it's slim odds that they get past flak. Once past that, it's slimmer odds still to hit a high MVR CV. Even then, it's even odds as to notable damage - the only recent example I had of a successful hit on a CV was on a Brit carrier, and all that did was make a nice mark on the paint.

Going after the CVE's and amphibs is a much more effective solution in my view, given the fact that they're pretty much dead meat once your past CAP. CVE's tend to burn nicely after the second kami hits, and loaded amphibs are simply the icing on the cake, and good VP's too!

I won't disagree, I wouldn't say I would hunt them ... but if it is early '44, I have the A7M deployed in the KB, and the allies are coming into the PI ... totally agree on the CVE/amphib portion. They are far easier targets, and accomplish the same result: get enough of them (CVE's would need to take down ~15-20) with some of the fast amphibs and I've done my job.

So, what I'm really saying is that in early '44 with the A7M and the right location, I can still take on the allies. Naval strike, I don't know what I'm gonna hit, I don't get that choice. But whether it is the CV's or the CVE's or the amphibs, I should be able to get through AND I have a reasonable chance to survive to fight another day. This is an alpha strike as I won't have kami's yet (most likely based upon date and geography in my example here). Plus in PI, very hard to get enough kami into range fast enough to attack in numbers. Too many places to land, too hard to see allies coming, too many kami have too short of range. But, I can have a lot of Frank/George that can LRCAP my KB ....

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

So, what I'm really saying is that in early '44 with the A7M and the right location, I can still take on the allies. Naval strike, I don't know what I'm gonna hit, I don't get that choice. But whether it is the CV's or the CVE's or the amphibs, I should be able to get through AND I have a reasonable chance to survive to fight another day. This is an alpha strike as I won't have kami's yet (most likely based upon date and geography in my example here). Plus in PI, very hard to get enough kami into range fast enough to attack in numbers. Too many places to land, too hard to see allies coming, too many kami have too short of range. But, I can have a lot of Frank/George that can LRCAP my KB ....

Wow, that is exciting, hopeful...and then harsh reality crashes down on me. To get the Sam in early 44 is almost an 18 month acceleration. [:(]

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
To get the Sam in early 44 is almost an 18 month acceleration. [:(]

I know, tough to do and takes a bit of luck ... as I said ...

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
To get the Sam in early 44 is almost an 18 month acceleration. [:(]

I know, tough to do and takes a bit of luck ... as I said ...

I have not followed any Japanese player that allocated that amount of resources to get the Sam that early. In fact the opposite is true, most JFB currently seem content to have the A6M8.

[Xargun]

I see you are concerned with the allies having the repair yards at Manila, what about Hong Kong?

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Xargun

I see you are concerned with the allies having the repair yards at Manila, what about Hong Kong?

Hong Kong is less of an issues for several reasons.

- With Formosa in Japanese hands, it's very close to the frontline and hard to properly secure from Japanese attack.
- The capture of Hong Kong requires significant Allied land units to be committed to China - which are units not easily redeployed for amphib ops.
- Plenty of Japapanese airbases in range to pester naval operations.
- It's x3 terrain, so even with level 6 forts it can be a significant redoubt, even if held by weaker IJA units.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
To get the Sam in early 44 is almost an 18 month acceleration. [:(]

I know, tough to do and takes a bit of luck ... as I said ...

I have not followed any Japanese player that allocated that amount of resources to get the Sam that early. In fact the opposite is true, most JFB currently seem content to have the A6M8.

I know.

My playing and testing has convinced me that the stats on the two planes accurately reflect the outcomes. 42mph and 2x20mm more shows up big. A6M8 can barely holds its own against F6F, beyond that (F4U, F7F, F8F) its just VP's for harvest. A7M isn't stellar, but it can hold it own against that group.

Yep, I play only the AI or Head2Head. But before you write me off, remember that I'm talking about logistical strategy and in PBEM its the same as AI. Why? The allied logistics is fixed and known. They will get such and such unit on this date, so many aircraft then. period. Thus, the IJ economic and logistical strategies developed against the AI have considerable merit irrespective of the game type, because effectively you are playing the allied AI in terms of the economies, the allied player has NO control. My opinion. Everyone can go where they want.

I believe most players settle for the A6M8 because they simply are not willing to invest, and I understand that. IT takes a BIG investment AND a little luck to pull that aircraft in 15 - 18 months. I've played enough games from various starting points, and a lot of endgame scenarios that I'm now pointing at '45. I'm not worried about 42/43. It hardly matters what you build until late '43 BECAUSE you can build more than the allies by a wide margin. If you have 2:1 odds in a dogfight, plane performance is overshadowed by the numbers unless the disparity is huge (F6F vs Claude huge). Until late '43 the IJ can always have 2:1 if the player chooses. The allied fighter pool is fixed AND known to most players. It is simple math to build more, and overall even the Oscar in '43 is better than the AVERAGE allied fighter. The allies don't only build TBolts, right? Mohawks, Martletts, Fireflys, Beaufighters, Buffalos, etc. Even the first spits are just on par.

To me, the trick is how thin can you run until about mid 44 as IJ so that you have been able to pile up this massive war chest of reserves to use from 6/44 to 6/46? 30 months of saving to finance 24 months of going full bore.

For the IJA, Frank is pretty obvious and simple. For the IJN, to me, it is also clear just not nearly as simple: A7M. That's me though.

[Aurorus]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo



I know, tough to do and takes a bit of luck ... as I said ...

I have not followed any Japanese player that allocated that amount of resources to get the Sam that early. In fact the opposite is true, most JFB currently seem content to have the A6M8.

I know.

My playing and testing has convinced me that the stats on the two planes accurately reflect the outcomes. 42mph and 2x20mm more shows up big. A6M8 can barely holds its own against F6F, beyond that (F4U, F7F, F8F) its just VP's for harvest. A7M isn't stellar, but it can hold it own against that group.

Yep, I play only the AI or Head2Head. But before you write me off, remember that I'm talking about logistical strategy and in PBEM its the same as AI. Why? The allied logistics is fixed and known. They will get such and such unit on this date, so many aircraft then. period. Thus, the IJ economic and logistical strategies developed against the AI have considerable merit irrespective of the game type, because effectively you are playing the allied AI in terms of the economies, the allied player has NO control. My opinion. Everyone can go where they want.

I believe most players settle for the A6M8 because they simply are not willing to invest, and I understand that. IT takes a BIG investment AND a little luck to pull that aircraft in 15 - 18 months. I've played enough games from various starting points, and a lot of endgame scenarios that I'm now pointing at '45. I'm not worried about 42/43. It hardly matters what you build until late '43 BECAUSE you can build more than the allies by a wide margin. If you have 2:1 odds in a dogfight, plane performance is overshadowed by the numbers unless the disparity is huge (F6F vs Claude huge). Until late '43 the IJ can always have 2:1 if the player chooses. The allied fighter pool is fixed AND known to most players. It is simple math to build more, and overall even the Oscar in '43 is better than the AVERAGE allied fighter. The allies don't only build TBolts, right? Mohawks, Martletts, Fireflys, Beaufighters, Buffalos, etc. Even the first spits are just on par.

To me, the trick is how thin can you run until about mid 44 as IJ so that you have been able to pile up this massive war chest of reserves from 6/44 to 6/46? 30 months of saving to finance 24 months of going full bore.

For the IJA, Frank is pretty obvious and simple. For the IJN, to me, it is also clear just not nearly as simple: A7M. That's me though.

For PDU:On, George and/or Jack seem a better investment than going so heavy into Sam. The scenario that you lay out... of investing large amounts of supply into Sam research and then trying to get Sam in early 44... and then trying to attack allied CVEs could work... if Japan still has all of its aircraft carriers. That is unlikely, however.

With regard to 43 and using whatever aircraft is available, what you want, in addition to keeping allied fighter pools dismal, is to maintain high pilot quality well into 1944, while preventing the allies from building a cadre of elite pilots. That is where Tojo and Tony shine above Oscar. It is bad enough trying to battle P-47s, et al, if your pilots are consistently worse than allied pilots. If you pilots are better, however, well... then the odds are evened up.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Aurorus


For PDU:On, George and/or Jack seem a better investment than going so heavy into Sam. The scenario that you lay out... of investing large amounts of supply into Sam research and then trying to get Sam in early 44... and then trying to attack allied CVEs could work... if Japan still has all of its aircraft carriers. That is unlikely, however.

With regard to 43 and using whatever aircraft is available, what you want, in addition to keeping allied fighter pools dismal, is to maintain high pilot quality well into 1944, while preventing the allies from building a cadre of elite pilots. That is where Tojo and Tony shine above Oscar. It is bad enough trying to battle P-47s, et al, if your pilots are consistently worse than allied pilots. If you pilots are better, however, well... then the odds are evened up.

Except you get all of those with no RnD in '43 anyway.

You want Tojo/Tony against TBolt. NP. your game, your choice.

I want Frank against TBolt.

You settle for George against TBolt. I want A7M against TBolt, because I want it also on the KB ...


Its a players choice. I'm often the counter-current thinker here. I'm only offering my opinion, no one has to use it. In fact most don't. [8D]

Finally, remember, just because I don't research something doesn't mean don't build it. George/Jack is better than A6M for LBA groups, so build it. But the main focus for me is to get the groups to A7M.

[Xargun]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Going to show my ignorance here.. So what does this chart show?

[PaxMondo]

number of allied aircraft on CV/CVL/CVE by date ...
so early '44, they can have up to about 2000, and then it grow sharply as all those Essex and CVE's get added... by end game they have over 5000 aircraft onboard. nightmare for IJ players

[mind_messing]

December 7th, 1941

An unusual first turn of the war.

At Pearl, I decided to let the Zeros fly Port attack at 8000ft with the rest of the KB, with the results being pretty surprising.

Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 119 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 44 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 90
B5N2 Kate x 116
D3A1 Val x 134

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 4 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed by flak
B5N2 Kate: 1 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed by flak
D3A1 Val: 11 damaged
D3A1 Val: 4 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
BB Maryland, Bomb hits 15, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Pennsylvania, Bomb hits 15, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Arizona, Bomb hits 7, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 10, heavy fires
DD Hull, Bomb hits 1, on fire
BB Nevada, Bomb hits 11, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
AM Bobolink, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
BB California, Bomb hits 13, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Tennessee, Bomb hits 8
DD Bagley, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CA San Francisco, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires
BB Oklahoma, Bomb hits 14, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires
CL Honolulu, Bomb hits 3
CA New Orleans, Bomb hits 2
AVP Avocet, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Phelps, Bomb hits 1
CL Phoenix, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1
SS Dolphin, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
AR Vestal, Bomb hits 1
DM Breese, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CL Raleigh, Torpedo hits 1
DD Blue, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CL St. Louis, Bomb hits 1
SS Cachalot, Bomb hits 1
CM Oglala, Bomb hits 1

Repair Shipyard hits 14
Port hits 27
Port fuel hits 2

We'll stick about for two days more - heavy sweeps on the 8th and a big final strike on the 9th.

SRA

Usual day 1 invasions and sweeps over Manila.

The only combat of note was the Houston nabbing a small convoy trying to rush a Naval Guard unit forward to Borneo. I had wanted to capture a base here as a floatplane station for naval search, but ran in to disaster.

Day Time Surface Combat, near Balabac at 70,83, Range 19,000 Yards

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
F1M2 Pete: 6 destroyed

Japanese Ships
DMS W-4, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
PB Eiko Maru, Shell hits 9, and is sunk
AV Sagara Maru, Shell hits 18, and is sunk
xAK Gosei Maru, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
xAK Meiten Maru, Shell hits 15, and is sunk
xAK Nojima Maru, Shell hits 10, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CA Houston, Shell hits 2

Japanese ground losses:
3328 casualties reported
Squads: 73 destroyed, 96 disabled
Non Combat: 77 destroyed, 74 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 36 (20 destroyed, 16 disabled)

The good news from this is that the Houston is likely low on ammo, and I know where it is. Now for the Boise...

[mind_messing]

General Strategy


Now that the game is actually started, here's a rough outline of my general plan.

North Pacific

No expansion up here at all. I might send a single ship fast transport in with a fragment to flip the bases, and maybe move in an AV and some floatplanes, but otherwise I'll be keeping to the Kuriles.

Based on my recent experiences, there will be a big investment into Sakhalin as the strong backstop to the Kurile Islands, as well as strong garrisons on all the islands with the potential for large airbases.

I think the correct way to defend the Kuriles is not from Hokkaido, but from Sakhalin.

At any rate, any excess engineers and aviation support that arrive as reinforcements will be diverted here to get to work.

China

My thoughts on China are that it needs to be smashed, and quickly. This game, I'm going to see just how quickly I can bottle the Chinese up in Chungking.

There will be a big air and ground investment to break the Chinese fighting power as quickly as possible, and I've already started moving the majority of the tanks, heavy artillery and a few crack divisions from Manchuria to Central China.

On top of that, I've some paratrooper assaults planned for China throughout December to disrupt Chinese lines of communication in the first few months.

The overall strategy is simple - it's a race for the mountain passes to Burma. If I can close them off quickly, and reinforce them to the point that the Chinese cannot re-open them, then I can bottle up the Chinese and prevent the mass exodus to India that happened last game.

On the tactical level, I'm going to try and brute force my way through Changsha, and thence to the Chungking plain while paratroopers and air-transported IJA units do thier best to contest the mountain passes.

While the eventual reduction of Chungking will take some time, I want operations resolved by 6/42 so I can start to filter IJA units from China to other theatres.

Central Pacific

My overall game plan here is one of cautious optimism. I'll take what I can in the early months with minimal troops, and get what use I can out of the islands as floatplane bases.

Canton Island, the Ellice Islands, Christmas Island and the other Line Islands are all on the menu.

If they're retaken during 1942, I'm not fussed. I'm taking them simply to maximise the inconvenience of transporting material to Australia.

South-West Pacific

My big gambit is here.

I want Noumea and Fiji. Both.

I may even go as far as Samoa, depending on the situation on the ground.

I'm going to couple this move with a strategic bombing campaign of industry for VP purposes.

The capture of Noumea, as well as Lord Howe and Norfolk Islands, will give me a nice arena with which to bomb industry with impunity.

The capture of Fiji will act as a breakwater for the 42/43 counterattack, and has the additional benefit of forcing the Allies back to either New Zealand or the islands east of Fiji to base any counter-offensive from.

The general concept of this strategy is that I want to capture a position that enables me to bomb industry with minimal risk. The VP bleed from industry attacks will force Loka to direct his counteroffensive at my position in SWPAC, rather than at a place of his own choosing. I will, of course, fortify my position to make this as difficult as possible for him.

Australia/DEI

I'll likely not bother with Northern Oz, given my focus on SWPAC. I'll see what the situation is once the oil is secured.

If I do decide to go for it, it will be a very limited operation. Land at Darwin, take down to Daly Waters, then get back on the boats. I'll take all the smaller bases along the Northern Oz coast, but only for floatplane bases.

The keystone of the Eastern DEI defence will again be Timor, but I intend to pick my strong points in this game a bit better than I did last game.

As for the Western DEI, let's just say the importance of Sumatra and Malaya has been made apparent to me in recent months...

Burma

Bargain basement effort in Burma from me. I hate this theatre. If it wasn't for the oil in Magwe I'd not bother about anything north of Prome.

Nevertheless, for 1942, I'll secure it all, all the way up to Myitkyina. Lots of flak will get thrown in to Magwe, but my frontline will run through the jungle on the Prome-Toungoo-Taung Gyi-Lashio axis. This takes advantage of the best of the terrain and roads, while still holding most of the key positions.

The Andaman Islands will serve as a floatplane station, and I'll keep a sizable reserve in the Burma panhandle for any late-war landings in the rear.

Thoughts?

Maps will follow, if they're wanted?

[Lowpe]

Take and hold Horn Island...the reefs there multiply mine effectiveness, and you can build the bases behind it to really support Horn...making an invasion there require CVs.

The island to the south west can be used to bomb Cloncurry.

Good plans...I would grab Adak in the winter early...I suspect Lok will look four times at an early Kurile campaign if you don't. But perhaps you want that?

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Take and hold Horn Island...the reefs there multiply mine effectiveness, and you can build the bases behind it to really support Horn...making an invasion there require CVs.

The island to the south west can be used to bomb Cloncurry.

Good plans...I would grab Adak in the winter early...I suspect Lok will look four times at an early Kurile campaign if you don't. But perhaps you want that?

Horn Island is on the agenda, but I doubt I'll hold it in any strength. It's nice, but it's open terrain (I'm fairly sure, anyways), which means 4E's from Oz will plaster the defenders without much trouble.

That said, I will look to contest it from Port Moresby and Merakue.

As for Loka in the Kuriles version 2.0, I don't think he'd do it again for a start, but I'd love it if he did, especially before '43. A war of attrition in the air in close proximity to my main source of supply would be a dream.

I intend to make ready for it from the start anyways. If he decides to go NORPAC he'll be walking into a tar pit.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


Good plans...I would grab Adak in the winter early...I suspect Lok will look four times at an early Kurile campaign if you don't. But perhaps you want that?

Adak is a good news/bad news thing. Yes, it's very valuable for several reasons. But it's expensive to hold. It has to be well-supplied if it has the division-plus it must have to stand after circa June 1942. The Aleutians are the single best place for the USN to operate in 1942 in an integrated way. The geography is a tunnel, there is incredibly strong backing to the rear. Adak is great to have if you have infinite Japanese resources. But you don't, and for that reason, were I Japan, I'd throw any Adak investments at Noumea, Fiji, and Pago Pago. Noumea and Fiji are the single WORST USN operating environment in 1942. And the VP take there dwarfs Adak.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


Good plans...I would grab Adak in the winter early...I suspect Lok will look four times at an early Kurile campaign if you don't. But perhaps you want that?

Adak is a good news/bad news thing. Yes, it's very valuable for several reasons. But it's expensive to hold. It has to be well-supplied if it has the division-plus it must have to stand after circa June 1942. The Aleutians are the single best place for the USN to operate in 1942 in an integrated way. The geography is a tunnel, there is incredibly strong backing to the rear. Adak is great to have if you have infinite Japanese resources. But you don't, and for that reason, were I Japan, I'd throw any Adak investments at Noumea, Fiji, and Pago Pago. Noumea and Fiji are the single WORST USN operating environment in 1942. And the VP take there dwarfs Adak.

That's the argument that has convinced me. My commitment to the Aleutians will be minimal in every sense of the word. We're talking about an AV, and APD and some float planes.

The Kuriles is another matter. Engineers and troops on those islands is paying off a loan early. The charges to pay early might be steep, but there's no interest to pay come '44 and '45.

[MakeeLearn]

Ships moving in a cold zone are twice as likely to be damaged.

BRRRRR!!!

[Bif1961]

Good luck and enjoy, looking forward to the action.