Cheating and Historical Turn 1

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
This is simply a sad, sad thread.[:(]

I had to look at the thread title. For a minute, I thought this a spoiler for the Mandrake/Sprior AAR. [:D]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: paradigmblue

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

OK, I finally understand what you're saying here... Basically, that the IJ player can run their historical first turn any number of times against a dummy password, saving a fresh copy each time prior to the Allied password setting, until they got a result they liked. Then, that file would be sent to the Allied player. This is rendered moot if you are playing with historical first turn set to off, as the Allied player would enter orders after the Japanese player last touched the turn.

This relies entirely on the seed being set when the Japan player loads the scenario for the first time, and not when the Allied player enters their password. You could be right, but I'm not so sure. From observation, the seed seems to be set either when the Allied player closes out their turn or when the Japanese player loads the turn and generates the replay after receiving the turn from the Allied player (this observation comes from lots of experience with sync bugs, and running over 1200 PBEM Japan turns thus far*). Why would the first turn be any different?

Yep, as I've said before, this could be an absolutely moot point, if the allied player is the one that sets the seed. I suppose what I need to do is a test where I run a dummy turn, record the results, then restart the computer and run a dummy turn again - haven't the devs said before that the two ways of changing the seed were a) changing orders b) restarting the computer?

I'll try that after work today.

You don't need to restart your computer.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

No matter what happens on Turn 1, in the long run it doesn't matter.

There's also this.

[Miller]

I have noticed in PBEM games with "historical" turn one the IJN always get better results at PH than if it were "non historical".

However, as the IJN I'd rather attack Manila harbour on turn one and therefore have the KB in position to dominate in that area from day 1. Those old US BB's are good for bombardments and nothing else in the game and at least half will die to subs and a/c torpedoes long before they get in range of the homeland.....

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Miller

I have noticed in PBEM games with "historical" turn one the IJN always get better results at PH than if it were "non historical".

However, as the IJN I'd rather attack Manila harbour on turn one and therefore have the KB in position to dominate in that area from day 1. Those old US BB's are good for bombardments and nothing else in the game and at least half will die to subs and a/c torpedoes long before they get in range of the homeland.....

I actually find that the historical results are better than the crapshoot you get by actually running the turn. At least against the old BBs, and therefore for VP purposes.

[Jorge_Stanbury]

For me, because I only play DaBabes, running historical turn is no-no as the low altitude flak is murderous... you can easily kill 40 to 60 Japanese veterans

[chemkid]

.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Miller
However, as the IJN I'd rather attack Manila harbour on turn one and therefore have the KB in position to dominate in that area from day 1. Those old US BB's are good for bombardments and nothing else in the game and at least half will die to subs and a/c torpedoes long before they get in range of the homeland.....

I agree.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

No matter what happens on Turn 1, in the long run it doesn't matter.

There's also this.

Meh.

I think there's some pretty clear evidence that what a player does on turn 1 can matter in the long run.

Does it matter in the game outcome ("Will the Allies likely still win if the game makes it to 1945?") if it goes the distance? Probably not. An extra sunk BB at Pearl on turn one here or there isn't going to translate into a different 'end game' or outcome just by itself.

Can a crushing turn one make a difference in games where the Japanese player is trying for autovictory? Possibly. An extra 500-600 VPs and diminished Allied ability to resist in 1942 may allow the Japanese more leeway in getting-and keeping-a VP margin sufficient to drive the game to autovictory on January 1, 1943.

Will what allegedly happened in *this OPs example* likely make a difference in the long run of this game? Almost certainly. Allegations of impropriety seldom bode well for trust and long-term commitment. I would bet really-o truly-o money that this game never sees 1945. Or 1944. Even money that 1943 never gets visited either. Not that a lot of games make it there to begin with, but the stink of accusations like this-whether substantiated or not-likely impact the 'long run' of this game and diminish the already low probability that this game goes the distance.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Not that a lot of games make it there to begin with, but the stink of accusations like this-whether substantiated or not-likely impact the 'long run' of this game and diminish the already low probability that this game goes the distance.

[jwolf]

I would bet really-o truly-o money that this game never sees 1945. Or 1944. Even money that 1943 never gets visited either.

You're out of date already. [;)] From the AAR thread I believe the game was called off before it even got to 1942.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

I would bet really-o truly-o money that this game never sees 1945. Or 1944. Even money that 1943 never gets visited either.

You're out of date already. [;)] From the AAR thread I believe the game was called off before it even got to 1942.

A one turn Japanese victory![&o]

In wrestling there is the 10 second club, where you pin your opponent in less than 10 seconds.[;)]

[Sundowners]

I've been playing WitpAE since 2009 and have played numerous smaller PBEMS and AI campaigns under a different user name (cward31548) and had to start a new account recently due to a major bomb when trying to get a "unified" Slitherine logon to work correctly. Anyway, yesterday tomamars and I started Scenario 001 with Historic First Turn and Pearl Harbor Surprise on (My Choice). I don't mind my new opponent seeing this, so these are the results:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Dec 07, 41
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Midget Sub attack inside harbor of Pearl Harbor!!!

Japanese Ships
SSX Ha-24

Allied Ships
BB West Virginia, Torpedo hits 1



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Pearl Harbor , at 180,107

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 92 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 30 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 68
B5N2 Kate x 144
D3A1 Val x 126

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 11 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 12 destroyed by flak
B5N2 Kate: 11 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 2 destroyed by flak
D3A1 Val: 13 damaged
D3A1 Val: 2 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
B-17D Fortress: 49 damaged
B-17D Fortress: 2 destroyed on ground
P-40B Warhawk: 61 damaged
P-40B Warhawk: 11 destroyed on ground
A-20A Havoc: 15 damaged
A-20A Havoc: 4 destroyed on ground
P-36A Mohawk: 31 damaged
P-36A Mohawk: 5 destroyed on ground
PBY-5 Catalina: 129 damaged
PBY-5 Catalina: 19 destroyed on ground
B-17E Fortress: 15 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 2 destroyed on ground
B-18A Bolo: 71 damaged
B-18A Bolo: 5 destroyed on ground
F4F-3 Wildcat: 7 damaged
F4F-3 Wildcat: 3 destroyed on ground
SBD-1 Dauntless: 31 damaged
SBD-1 Dauntless: 8 destroyed on ground
O-47A: 6 damaged
O-47A: 1 destroyed on ground
R3D-2: 1 damaged
R3D-2: 1 destroyed on ground
C-33: 2 damaged
C-33: 1 destroyed on ground
SNJ-3 Texan: 1 destroyed on ground
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
AV Wright
BB Arizona, Bomb hits 5, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
BB Maryland, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Oklahoma, Bomb hits 8, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB West Virginia, Bomb hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CL St. Louis, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 2, on fire
CL Phoenix, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
BB California, Bomb hits 7, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB Nevada, Bomb hits 8, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DMS Wasmuth, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
DMS Perry, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Conyngham, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD MacDonough, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
AV Curtiss, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
AV Tangier, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Monaghan, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
CL Detroit, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
BB Pennsylvania, Bomb hits 9, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
BB Tennessee, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 5, and is sunk
xAKL Hirondelle
DD Reid, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DM Pruitt, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Ralph Talbot, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
CM Oglala, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CA New Orleans, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
CL Helena, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Patterson, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SS Narwhal, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
CL Honolulu, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CL Raleigh, Torpedo hits 1
DD Jarvis, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD Shaw, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Mugford, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CA San Francisco, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
AD Rigel, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Dale, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
AD Dobbin, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DM Gamble, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DM Sicard, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Tautog, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
DMS Zane, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Allied ground losses:
16 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Repair Shipyard hits 2
Airbase hits 47
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 106

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x A6M2 Zero bombing from 100 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 60 kg GP Bomb
9 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
27 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
10 x A6M2 Zero bombing from 100 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 60 kg GP Bomb
1 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
City Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
25 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
4 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 15000 feet
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
City Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
18 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
4 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 15000 feet
8 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
18 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
15 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
27 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
5 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
27 x B5N2 Kate bombing from 9000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
City Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
9 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
7 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
7 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
7 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
9 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
1 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
5 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
3 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
11 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Airfield Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
City Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
City Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Port Attack: 1 x 250 kg GP Bomb

----------------------------------------------------
(Combined attack results for 2 separate air attacks on Force Z)
BC Repulse, Torpedo hits 4, on fire heavy damage
BB Prince of Wales, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
----------------------------------------------------

The results seem very good to me with 41 different vessels hit, but not necessarily impossible. Now that I have kibitzed away my damage reports, you can all see my very weakened position. Hoping for a good match.

[tomamars]

You'll probably kick my butt eventually but it's nice to see game start good for Japan, as it historically did, btw. This is my third opening on those settings and I can justify that those are the results Japan gets on those settings, give or take. You loose a lot more planes and pilots but sunk / damage a lot more ships in PH / Si. Certainly more historical than Manila strike.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

I would bet really-o truly-o money that this game never sees 1945. Or 1944. Even money that 1943 never gets visited either.

You're out of date already. [;)] From the AAR thread I believe the game was called off before it even got to 1942.

So does this mean that you won't take my bet? [:D]

[Sundowners]

Agreed, the PBEM Historical First turn and Pearl Surprise on show PH getting clobbered pretty consistently with those settings. Now for the challenge to try and get to summer of '43. Looking forward to a sound thrashing upon the IJN

[Revthought]

Having played a number of opponents and the AI, I always regarded the historical first turn as benefiting both sides for different reasons. The Japanese player gets far more historical Pearl Harbor results--let's face it, replicating the real damage done at Pearl Harbor [s]almost never[/s] never happens without the KB spending multiple days around Hawaii. This happens at the cost of a lot more pilots.

That being said, I have always been of the opinion that if you want to start with an "historical" first turn, you should really just be playing the December 8th scenario, which granted is not available for every mod.

But if you're playing the stock game, I personally would of said no to the "historical first turn" and instead gone with the December 8th start.

[Lowpe]

The POW is alive on a Dec 8th start....

[Revthought]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The POW is alive on a Dec 8th start....

I am usually playing the Allies, so I don't mind. [:D]

[Aurorus]

ORIGINAL: Quixote

Aurorus is correct about the potential exploit. Instead of arguing back and forth about what should happen when starting a new game with the same Japanese seed turn, try actually doing it. I did, and the result of the same Japanese seed turn, when sent to two Allied opponents with completely different passwords, was two exactly identical turns. These weren't similar results or close results factoring in fog of war, they were identical. Each Allied player lost exactly the same ships, exactly the same number of aircraft, and suffered exactly the same amount of damage to each and every ship hit. The experiment is easily repeatable if you care to try.

Note that this potential exploit only applies to Historical Dec 7th starts, and still may not mean his opponent was knowingly cheating. It's certainly possible his opponent simply re-used an already prepared first turn without knowing about the exploit (since none of the veteran players here seemed to know about it either), but Aurorus isn't crazy to have at least considered the possibility.

Thank you. As I stated, I have no evidence that in this particular instance, the opponent cheated. I was suspicious, however, that both of his last two attacks on Pearl resulted in enormous loss. That is what prompted me to test when the RNG generates the results for the turn and whether the results would be identical without any "entropy" or other input data.

The primary purpose of this entire thread was to call attention to a potential exploit in the game. Otherwise, I would not have bothered posting it in the forum, since it is, as Lowpe observes, an uncomfortable topic.

The problem is not so much in the WiTP engine as in how computers generate random numbers. They cannot, in fact, generate "random" numbers. Most RNGs rely on input data from users to set the process by which random numbers are generated in motion.