The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

7/14/44

Siege of Bataan: Promising combat results today. The troops will rest a day and then attack again.

[paullus99]

Not for too much longer, by the looks of it.

[Canoerebel]

7/14/44

Fun House: Things look good on Luzon, where this operation is nearing wind-down phase.

Peep Show: I'm taking a hard look at Formosa. It's doable, I believe...but do I wanna do it or do I wanna select one of the other options?

[paullus99]

I'm not necessarily advocating for one area over the other, but here's my thoughts:

1) Any major invasion that doesn't get you additional bomber bases within range of the HI is a step backwards, not a step forwards.

2) Do your targets allow you to shut down all Japanese shipping from the DEI to the HI?

3) Are you willing to accept having the Death Star on extended station, given that John could go "raiding" again, perhaps in an attempt to sever your narrow supply line?

4) Can you hit your target with overwhelming force & take bases immediately, without the need to stop and start again?


These aren't necessarily in any order or totally related to each other, but just some nuggets I wanted to get out there.

[Canoerebel]

1) Peep Show has always been configured with strategic bombing airfields in mind. There are three alternative versions, with various pluses and minuses.

Troops are prepping or are fully prepped for all three, and most have now reached the minimal prep percentages needed for invasion.

2) Yes, all three versions impose a lockdown on the IJ LOC from the DEI to the Home Islands.

3) Yes, I'm willing to risk raids into my LOC. Most of that LOC is vast oceans with few ships, so not a target-rich environment for him. His best targets are the DEI and the Torres Strait regions, but big Allied airfields make those dangerous for him. He hasn't chanced them yet, and he'll probably remain reluctant, at least for split-up KB divisions.

4) Formosa is no hit and run and shock and awe target. It's strongly defended...but in some ways that strength makes it a worthwhile target. Killing enemy troops is a worthwhile activity at this point. The two alternatives are more weakly held...at last glance...and I'll illuminate them again when the Peep Show armada leaves Manila (I don't want to tip my hand right now). Formosa will probably be a three- or four-month campaign, but worth every bit of that and more.

[Lowpe]

You don't have to take all of Formosa. At least not all right away.

[Jellicoe]

How far ahead are you on your Fun house schedule? i.e. have you created the time to take on Formosa as well as your other Peep show targets. 14 divisions in theatre provides plenty of oomph!

[paullus99]

Or does he let John stuff Formosa to the gills & then bypass it?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Or does he let John stuff Formosa to the gills & then bypass it?

That happened in a wargamr/njp game where 5 divisions plus support were all left at Formosa, starving, while the Allies raced thru Honshu. Certainly a valid strategy, and which makes me think (like my post several days ago) that Okinawa and the Japanese Islands are the real target.

I think the short term goal of the Allies should be to break the back of the Japanese fighter strength to allow strategic bombing....I think this might take a while, and some invasions to accomplish.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, that's a possibility: "Let John stuff Formosa to the gills and then bypass it."

Yes, that's a possibility: "You don't have to take all of Formosa."

Regarding the Fun House schedule: Originally, I figured that to take through about September. So it's winding down more than eight weeks ahead of schedule (...and Peep Show got an head start with the snap invasions of the three islands north of Luzon).

When Peep Show was conceived in the autumn of '43, the objective was to seize airfields in proximity to the Home Islands, in order to implement the final big offensive of the war: strategic bombing. At that time, I figured there might be time after Peep Show for another move: against or near the Home Islands. That's still a possibility but not a certainty.

At this point, one path to victory might be to allow Peep Show to run it's course: to seize big airfield bases and to implement strategic bombing...and all the while, then moving south in strength to address Singers and the other big bases. Part of this objective would be to eliminate ever safe port on the map and finish off the Japanese navy and merchant marine.

That's just one possibility. Another would be to pick a Home Island an invade in strength: Shikoku, Hokkaido, whatever.

And there are others.

I have a lot of flexibility at this particular moment because I don't have to move on Formosa or any other single target at this moment. The quarterback may call some audibles at the line, depending on what Just In Time reconnaissance shows.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, that's a possibility: "Let John stuff Formosa to the gills and then bypass it."

Yes, that's a possibility: "You don't have to take all of Formosa."

Regarding the Fun House schedule: Originally, I figured that to take through about September. So it's winding down more than eight weeks ahead of schedule (...and Peep Show got an head start with the snap invasions of the three islands north of Luzon).

When Peep Show was conceived in the autumn of '43, the objective was to seize airfields in proximity to the Home Islands, in order to implement the final big offensive of the war: strategic bombing. At that time, I figured there might be time after Peep Show for another move: against or near the Home Islands. That's still a possibility but not a certainty.

At this point, one path to victory might be to allow Peep Show to run it's course: to seize big airfield bases and to implement strategic bombing...and all the while, then moving south in strength to address Singers and the other big bases. Part of this objective would be to eliminate ever safe port on the map and finish off the Japanese navy and merchant marine.

That's just one possibility. Another would be to pick a Home Island an invade in strength: Shikoku, Hokkaido, whatever.

And there are others.

I have a lot of flexibility at this particular moment because I don't have to move on Formosa or any other single target at this moment. The quarterback may call some audibles at the line, depending on what Just In Time reconnaissance shows.

That is why the game is at a great decision point! What kind of game do you want to pursue till the end. They are all available to you:

HI invasion
Kyushu or Hokkaido invasion
Strategic bombing campaing
Liberating China
Activating Soviets

Combination of the above...

[Lowpe]

OT: Civil War note on this day:

5/2/1863

During the battle of Chancellorsville three Confederate Infantry divisions, under the command of General Thomas J. Jackson, launched a crushing attack on the right flank of General Oliver O. Howard's XI Corp. The attack pushed General Howard's men back a mile and a quarter. Later in the Evening, General Jackson and his staff were fired on by troops of their own army. Jackson was hit. He would die 8 days later from complications from his wounding.

[MakeeLearn]

5/2/1863

As the days' fighting was settling down and a moonlit night encompassed Chancellorsville


In front of 18th North Carolina Regiment, Lane's brigade...

"Cease firing, cease firing," Hill's voice rang out

"Cease firing", Morrison yelled, as he ran toward the lines, "you are firing into your own men!"

"Who gave that order?" a voice shouted back. "It's a lie! Pour in into to them, boys!"

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

OT: Civil War note on this day:

5/2/1863

During the battle of Chancellorsville three Confederate Infantry divisions, under the command of General Thomas J. Jackson, launched a crushing attack on the right flank of General Oliver O. Howard's XI Corp. The attack pushed General Howard's men back a mile and a quarter. Later in the Evening, General Jackson and his staff were fired on by troops of their own army. Jackson was hit. He would die 8 days later from complications from his wounding.

It was on that day, at that place, and under Jackson's command, that my avatar guy (Col. Emory F. Best) led his regiment in battle...and took part in events that would lead to his court martial and dismissal from the Confederate Army.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

...I think the short term goal of the Allies should be to break the back of the Japanese fighter strength to allow strategic bombing....I think this might take a while, and some invasions to accomplish.

Towards that end, see the air loss screen for the day - pretty good number of Franks killed in two relatively small clashes (I didn't have many fighters on sweep today, and none of my Jugs).

Unless John is holding his best fighter pilots back, the air war has definitely been swinging in favor of the Allies. He could be holding his best back, especially if he's getting that advice from good JFB readers. On his own, I doubt John would hold them back.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

OT: Civil War note on this day:

5/2/1863

During the battle of Chancellorsville three Confederate Infantry divisions, under the command of General Thomas J. Jackson, launched a crushing attack on the right flank of General Oliver O. Howard's XI Corp. The attack pushed General Howard's men back a mile and a quarter. Later in the Evening, General Jackson and his staff were fired on by troops of their own army. Jackson was hit. He would die 8 days later from complications from his wounding.

It was on that day, at that place, and under Jackson's command, that my avatar guy (Col. Emory F. Best) led his regiment in battle...and took part in events that would lead to his court martial and dismissal from the Confederate Army.

That was the scene of his 3rd and 4th charge of "Cowardice and Disgrace before the Enemy".

http://196thovi.tripod.com/23rdgeorgiai ... /id33.html

[crsutton]

Formosa gives you at least four level nine airfields. It is just a great place to stage for invading Japan. But quite frankly you need to be closer in to provide fighter cover for your bombers.

[Canoerebel]

Agreed. That's why Formosa wasn't the original Peep Show target.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

...I think the short term goal of the Allies should be to break the back of the Japanese fighter strength to allow strategic bombing....I think this might take a while, and some invasions to accomplish.

Towards that end, see the air loss screen for the day - pretty good number of Franks killed in two relatively small clashes (I didn't have many fighters on sweep today, and none of my Jugs).

Unless John is holding his best fighter pilots back, the air war has definitely been swinging in favor of the Allies. He could be holding his best back, especially if he's getting that advice from good JFB readers. On his own, I doubt John would hold them back.

Frank B! Cool plane that isn't seen in many pbem, especially in summer of 44.

[Canoerebel]

Tell me why it's "cool," 'cause I have no idea. Is it better than the A? Does John get a lot of them? Do I need to be making adjustments in my thinking? Should this tell me something about his research work? See, I don't know these things. I probably need an aide-de-camp.