Shannon versus Z

[Centuur]

Double...

[Shannon V. OKeets]

It's been a while - sorry about that. But you wanted me to be working on the code anyway - right?

Also I wanted the game to progress much farther before giving my thoughts about my decisions. We are now in Jul/Aug 1940, Impulse 3, so I guess it is safe to do a retrospective on the first two turns of 1940.

===
Here's Finland.

Note the typical standoff in Murmansk. I probably screwed this up and should have moved the 6-3 Finn into Murmansk directly. The weather was Snow so I could have done that. With the Finnish air units on the map, I could have taken 4 Finnish land units out of Finland. As I said, stupid on my part. The ski unit set up with the 6-5 and ignoring the ZOC, moved directly to Novgorod. The 5-4 circled around Leningrad, crossed over Lake Ladoga (which was frozen) and made good penetration into Russia. The HQ wanted to stay in supply (risky) but the change in weather put it OOS. The idea was to move it further into Russia in the next impulse without disorganizing it. Then it could reach Novgorod if all went well. Taking the path across the lake would have accomplished the task much pore expeditiously. Another forlorn hope was for the HQ to keep the 5-4 in supply so it could go charging off to Pskov without becoming disorganized.

In summary, even moving 4 units with no enemy units in the way offers a lot of different possibilities - and opportunities for taking risk (and/or being dumb).

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Here's the rest of European Russia.

You can see where Z placed all his reserves that were free to arrive in any city.

I have already railed 3 units into east Prussia. The HQ arrived first, which created a 'station' for the other two units. At this point I am thinking of DOWing Lithuania and having the 6-3 move to Kaunas to conquer it (at the end of the turn). That will make Kaunas a secondary supply source starting next turn for operations hereabouts. von Leeb can perform the same function with his mobility providing flexibility.

The 3 units around Brest-Litovsk have just killed off a garrison unit (OOS and disorganized = 1 combat factor). The river didn't matter so 18 factors versus 1 was a sure kill despite the +1 for the city and the +4 for Snow. The mountain unit gained -1 against the Snow modification. +32 on the 2D10 if you are keeping score.

The 7-4 will help out against the 3-4 Cav. That's because the river will halve 2 of the attackers.

This is the Align Minors phase and I am about to align Hungary.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

End of Turn 3, Jan/Feb 1940. The turn ended on something 5 or less, which isn't bad luck. But the Allies moved first and last, so the Initiative shift to Axis +1.

Not much change in Russia from the previous post. The Germans have cleaned up the Cav unit next to Brest-Litovsk and brought in the Hungarians. I am planning on moving the 3-3 Hungarian into Poland to act as a garrison. However, that plan is a bust because the Hungarians cannot enter Chechoslovakia - not even to simply pass through (stupid program enforcing the rules I don't remember.[:@]

I haven't DOWed Lithuania because I wanted decent weather to guarantee taking out Kaunas. The weather has been crummy, but that is to be expected in Jan/Feb. Note the German 4-4 Inf next to Krakov. It is within 3 hexes of two supply sources but the supply path in the North Temperate was 2 for the entire turn. So there it sits. I don't want to disorganize it because I want it to count against partisans.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

The Baltic is going to be interesting - in the negative sense.

The Netherlands Sub arrived last turn and did no damaged. But the mini-fleet in Frederickshaven is going to be a pain. The Commonwealth doesn't have anything else to do so Churchill sends out navy to mess with the German convoys. The full German fleet is in Stetin, but it is doubtful that they will want to go to sea - Land Actions are all the rage in Germany. I placed the German Nav in Finland to harass the Russian ships in Leningrad, but it looks like it is going to have other tasks. It would be better placed in German within reach of Frederickshaven - at least until the Brits rebased fighters to Denmark.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

End of turn Jan/Feb 1940.

So what about Belgium?

Once the Para unit arrives in Mar/Apr, 1940, the Germans will be ready to take out all the Belgian units on the first impulse of Fine weather in the North Temperate with a guarantee of no losses (not even a unit disorganized).

That is my plan.

In Russia, I intend to have the Finns (and maybe a German unit or two) wander around, being careful that they are OOS at the end of the turn so the USSR doesn't gain a +0.25 on its Production Multiple. But definitely no attacks in the USSR proper (which adds another +0.25 to the USSR PM). I expect to DOW the Baltic States, one at a time, and set up a line of units along the Russian frontier. That will involve taking Lvov, but there are enough units available to do that. von Leeb may have to drift south to provide supply for the attack. A couple Hungarian units are there to take any hits.

But Z fogs his builds!!!

Because Germany DOWed the USSR, the USSR has unlimited builds of all gearing types. I expect him to build a stack of infantry - mostly Militia that he will rail to the front over the next few turns. Instead, he builds one (i.e., 1) Inf, which won't arrive for 2 turns.

So, screw Belgium and France. The Germans are heading east.

Another key element to this decision is that the French and British units are all about defense. The 5 French fighters aren't going to intimidate the Germans holding the West Wall. Nor are those 4-3 Inf and AA/At units. The French have only 1 bomber. The Brits have a bunch of bombers, and fighters, but they won;t be able to provide Ground Support for any French attacks.

I am primarily worried about a double DOW on Belgium by the Allies. That will cost a minimum of 2 US Entry chits, maybe even 4 (1.2 for each DOW). Definitely high risk for the Allies. Now the US Entry Pool is flush at the present. The USSR did not claim the Baltic States, the Axis broke the Pact, and DOWed the USSR. I also had Italy DOW both France and the Commonwealth. Combined with good die rolls, there are 8+ chits in the US Entry Pool disgustingly early in the war. I refrain from looking at it - it's just too depressing.

Z decided to not DOW Belgium, but I am sure that thought will be on his mind for the rest of 1940.

Oh, we are not playing with unlimited divisions and with AMPH rules. That makes it difficult for France and the Commonwealth to put together invasion troops.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Still end of turn Jan/Feb.

Manchuria.

The Russians are moving right along. The weather has been terrible and half the Russian army appears to be divisions or weak cavalry. Facing them are a scattered mixture of Japanese and Manchurian units. The Mongolian cavalry is getting in on the act, but it is always OOS, so it only moves once per turn.

The really scary units are the Russian bombers. If they all go to Vladivostok, they can threaten the Japanese home factories. - or even more easily, the Manchurian factories. +17 is a nasty column on the strategic bombing table. So, the Japanese are sending a couple of fighters to Manchuria. There is already a bomber there to offer defensive ground support should the need arise.

In response, I built a Japanese fighter with a range of 13 which will arrive in 2 turns.

The Japanese are sending one or two corps to Manchuria every turn - much to the relief of the Chinese.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

End of Turn Jan/Feb.

Northern China.

The Communist Chinese have been reduced to 4 units and are scurrying west to the mountains. The Nationalists are a little more robust, having taken Wuhan (I never even noticed it was vulnerable[>:]). Next turn they are bringing in a 4-2 to occupy it.

What is most interesting here is that the Japanese have brought up the 8-4-3 HQ from down south and are positioning the transports to take up the two marine corps.

I lost one of the Japanese transports in the first turn, leaving several naval units in Shanghai without any land units and a partisan arrived to overrun them. Getting units from Japan to China is even more difficult than usual.

Note the placement of the 5-3-2 Japanese HQ. It is two hexes from a rail hex (not in an enemy ZOC) so it is going to be OOS for the entire next turn. Supply will be 2 hexes and the HQ will need a 3rd hex to go overseas to Japan. The 8-4-3- HQ will limp along to help, 1 hex per impulse.

Things in northern China are always slow in the winter, but this is/will be ridiculous.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

End of Turn Jan/Feb 1940.

Southern China.

Weather is great (as usual for southern China in the winter) but Japan doesn't have enough troops to do anything.

In the normal course of events the Japanese attack in the north in the summer and in the south in the winter. I was prepared to do that but the marines needed to go retake Shanghai and the best HQ was wasted in the south if there were insufficient land units. I had planned on having the reinforcements arriving in the south round about now, but they are all going to Manchuria.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

End of Turn Jan/Feb 1940.

Destroyed Pool.

Not much happens in the winter. The French and Italians slugged it out in the Western Med. The French got the better of the exchange, slightly. As always, the Italians can't afford to take losses because there is the British fleet to deal with as well.

Things were quiet in eastern Asia.

The Germans killed off a couple of OOS disorganized units around Brest-Litovsk.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

End of Turn Jan/Feb 1940.

Last in this series.

Reinforcements for Mar/Apr 1940.

This is what I saw when I looked at the USSR builds. No Russian infantry in Mar/Apr and only 1 in May/Jun. Which means only 2 in Jul/Aug and 3 in Sep/Oct. Z will have to choose between building regular Inf or Militia. The later arrive faster, but then there will be no regular infantry the next turn. Militia also have the annoying habit of arriving in central Asia and needing to be railed to the front.

There are some very nice Russian units coming in in Jul/Aug. But that may be too late.

Germany has already built both armor HQ, which will be very useful.

The trick is going to be getting the German units from the west to the east. Rail moves and air rebases: 3 and 4 respectively with a Land Action. 1 and 6 with a Combined.

[Jagdtiger14]

I think Mayhemizer started an AAR on this theme...forget France, go east immediately.

Putting aside the military aspects of this strategy, the economics are terrible. Besides the 7 pact resources, the Belgian/French resources are expected by the end of M/J or J/A...plus the Spanish resource.

The Allies will have little threat to their convoy lines, produce well, build interesting units, bomb German/Italian factories, mess with the Baltic, devise devious strategies, etc, etc...

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

I think Mayhemizer started an AAR on this theme...forget France, go east immediately.

Putting aside the military aspects of this strategy, the economics are terrible. Besides the 7 pact resources, the Belgian/French resources are expected by the end of M/J or J/A...plus the Spanish resource.

The Allies will have little threat to their convoy lines, produce well, build interesting units, bomb German/Italian factories, mess with the Baltic, devise devious strategies, etc, etc...

Some of the Pact resources (3 non-oil and 2 oil) are offset by the 2 build points. With a German production multiple of 0.75, the build points consume ~3 resources: net loss to Germany of 1.75 BPs. On the other hand, the USSR has a PM of 0.25, so the 2 Pact build points are a gain for them. Also they have more resources than factories. All-in-all it is close to a wash.

But you are right about the other impacts.[:(]

Now, how about reducing the USSR to 14 BPs starting Jan/Feb 1941? That is with a USSR PM of 1. Germany also gains some resources just getting to the Volga. If they make it to the Caucasus, then there are 10 more resources pouring in. The two front war it going to be tough for the Germans though. On the other hand, the USSR is going to have problems with Japan (they are losing Vladivostok in Jul/Aug 1940) and have made only limited progress in Manchuria.

From the position I found the Axis in, Japan was going to have a fistful of difficulties if the Germans hadn't moved east in 1940.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

I think Mayhemizer started an AAR on this theme...forget France, go east immediately.

Putting aside the military aspects of this strategy, the economics are terrible. Besides the 7 pact resources, the Belgian/French resources are expected by the end of M/J or J/A...plus the Spanish resource.

The Allies will have little threat to their convoy lines, produce well, build interesting units, bomb German/Italian factories, mess with the Baltic, devise devious strategies, etc, etc...

Some of the Pact resources (3 non-oil and 2 oil) are offset by the 2 build points. With a German production multiple of 0.75, the build points consume ~3 resources: net loss to Germany of 1.75 BPs. On the other hand, the USSR has a PM of 0.25, so the 2 Pact build points are a gain for them. Also they have more resources than factories. All-in-all it is close to a wash.

But you are right about the other impacts.[:(]

Now, how about reducing the USSR to 14 BPs starting Jan/Feb 1941? That is with a USSR PM of 1. Germany also gains some resources just getting to the Volga. If they make it to the Caucasus, then there are 10 more resources pouring in. The two front war it going to be tough for the Germans though. On the other hand, the USSR is going to have problems with Japan (they are losing Vladivostok in Jul/Aug 1940) and have made only limited progress in Manchuria.

From the position I found the Axis in, Japan was going to have a fistful of difficulties if the Germans hadn't moved east in 1940.

It will be a very tough fight, that's for sure. One thing helps for Germany, that is the fact that the USSR is at war with Japan too. But US entry is probably going skyhigh.
Don't underestimate the French. Sure, they have a lot of crappy units and they can't cooperate with the CW. But if the USA decides to start sending over build points to the French (and resources), the French can start building the airforce and with the Luftwaffe in full action in the East, the Allied fleet can start doing all kind of nasty things against the Italians...

[Jagdtiger14]

In this scenario as the Allies, I would look to force my way into the Baltic (Denmark, Norway). Keep Germany from getting the 3 Swedish resources (and Finn resource), force Germany to garrison the Baltics...slow German progress eastwards with just the threat...if not taken seriously perhaps landing in the Baltics, and/or take out Finland.

[Courtenay]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

It's been a while - sorry about that. But you wanted me to be working on the code anyway - right?

Right! [:)]

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

In this scenario as the Allies, I would look to force my way into the Baltic (Denmark, Norway). Keep Germany from getting the 3 Swedish resources (and Finn resource), force Germany to garrison the Baltics...slow German progress eastwards with just the threat...if not taken seriously perhaps landing in the Baltics, and/or take out Finland.

The Allies have no invasion units (no AMPHs, no marines, no paras, no infantry divisions) at the present (something I took into consideration). By the time they are available it will be winter in the North Temperate and Arctic. So those operations will have to wait until spring 1941.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

I didn't make enough saved games for the Mar/Apr and May/Jun 1940 turns, but I was able to dig up enough to show what happened.

I was counting on going first (84% probability) because the Allies started and ended the last turn and the Initiative was at Axis +1. I lost both the first roll and the second roll. Arghh.[:@]

Then there was the weather, ...

[Shannon V. OKeets]

If the Axis had moved first I was planning to put an Italian transport loaded with an 4-3 Inf in the Eastern Med along with a supporting naval fleet. First the fighter/bomber would have ground struck Alexandria.

Then I would have landed the 4-3 Inf on Balbo and most likely have had the 2-2 Art move up for a 15:6 attack, with some Shore Bombardment points and Balbo throwing in his support, making it a +7 Assault minimum. A really dangerous attack: if it fails the Italian are toast; if it succeeds, there would be no Allied unit in Egypt.

An alternative was to move the 4-3 Inf due east 1 hex, and keep him out of the attack. That way, the 4-3 would have been available to move on Cairo next impulse.

None of that was to be. The British and French navy was too powerful in the 3 Mediterranean sea areas for such risky Italian adventures.[:(]

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Mar/Apr 1940 Impulse 3 (Axis to move).

Here are those imposing British and French naval forces. All of the French have put to sea, but the British still have units on call in Gibraltar. Note the two transports - which are going to quickly take the land units to Egypt in the next Allied impulse.