The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[BBfanboy]

Beautiful voice and a beautiful lady, but they only seemed to use one verse of the song. Compare with Tennessee Ernie Ford's version:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khxx3sCVhtE

[Canoerebel]

8/6/44

Peep Show: Allied forces continue to make progress in China and in closing Formosa's airfields.

I think Amoy will fall in two or three days. At that point, I have a big decision to make: (1) retire Death Star to replenish and then escort supply into theater; or (2) if KB remains in the DEI, move immediately to invade Formosa at one or two places, since the Allies currently control the theater and all airfields are suppressed.

I always think John has no choice but to commit KB....and John never commits KB. But, dang, if he doesn't now, he's giving me a lot of freedom to hit him I the vitals.

[Canoerebel]

8/6/44

KB & the DEI: Interesting game within the game going on in the DEI, where John has full KB in position to overwhelm Allied defenses at Boela.

Purely from a Victory Point +/- accounting standpoint, this mission probably makes sense; from an opportunity cost standpoint, I think it doesn't make sense; from a military positioning and advantage standpoint, it makes zero sense.

[Lowpe]

That is how you do it...Japan's initial strength in the air gone, and the planes are destroyed on the ground. I wonder if he evacuated the pilots or if you are killing some pilots with each airfield strike?

I suspect you might be better served either cutting China in half and hooking up with the Chinese or picking targets closer to Honshu....but since I don't know troop strengths in that area I am simply speculating.

With no KB around, I might want to look at how could I activate the Soviets.

[Canoerebel]

8/6/44

SEAC: Allied momentum in Indochina is complementing Peep Show.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

That is how you do it...Japan's initial strength in the air gone, and the planes are destroyed on the ground. I wonder if he evacuated the pilots or if you are killing some pilots with each airfield strike?

I suspect you might be better served either cutting China in half and hooking up with the Chinese or picking targets closer to Honshu....but since I don't know troop strengths in that area I am simply speculating.

With no KB around, I might want to look at how could I activate the Soviets.

Activating the Soviets is one of three major possibilities I'm considering now. It's probably third on that list, only because it's something I know the least about.

I think I'd have to put enough Western Allied troops in Manchuria to negatively tilt John's garrison requirements. I don't have any idea how much cushion he has at the moment, so I don't know if the task is easy, feasible or long shot.

Before pulling the trigger on any operation that will follow Formosa, I definitely have to bring in supply. I'm down to a theater reserve of 60k aboard ships (the rest is already unloaded at various bases and therefore "committed.")

Supply is really an issue now. I think I have enough with that 60k to pull off a quick move against an isolated and battered Formosa....if KB stays away. As long as KB is away, my bombardment TFs and bombers can pulverize John's positions. And now my troops are highly prepped for three targets: Takao, Taichu and Taihoku. Most units are in the upper 80s or low 90s.

[paullus99]

Operationally, you're in great shape. Without those airfields & a contested China, John isn't going to be able to save Formosa - even with the KB.

He doesn't have enough carriers left to support that type of defense against your armada. At this point, better to work on getting supply to your troops and planning the next op - and, of course, get your bombing campaign off the ground.

Everything else is a sideshow - he's trying to nibble around the edges for VPs, but once the bombing campaign starts in earnest, he'll be wishing he had done more to keep you away from the HIs.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

That is how you do it...Japan's initial strength in the air gone, and the planes are destroyed on the ground. I wonder if he evacuated the pilots or if you are killing some pilots with each airfield strike?

I suspect you might be better served either cutting China in half and hooking up with the Chinese or picking targets closer to Honshu....but since I don't know troop strengths in that area I am simply speculating.

With no KB around, I might want to look at how could I activate the Soviets.

Activating the Soviets is one of three major possibilities I'm considering now. It's probably third on that list, only because it's something I know the least about.

I think I'd have to put enough Western Allied troops in Manchuria to negatively tilt John's garrison requirements. I don't have any idea how much cushion he has at the moment, so I don't know if the task is easy, feasible or long shot.

Before pulling the trigger on any operation that will follow Formosa, I definitely have to bring in supply. I'm down to a theater reserve of 60k aboard ships (the rest is already unloaded at various bases and therefore "committed.")

Supply is really an issue now. I think I have enough with that 60k to pull off a quick move against an isolated and battered Formosa....if KB stays away. As long as KB is away, my bombardment TFs and bombers can pulverize John's positions. And now my troops are highly prepped for three targets: Takao, Taichu and Taihoku. Most units are in the upper 80s or low 90s.

I'm only reading this side to enable me to comment freely. Obviously John knows Formosa is at risk, but I wonder what is his assessment of its status as an Allied target: does he think an invasion is pending or that it will be bypassed for now while the Allied invasions move northward?

As far as moving farther north in China, it's just difficult and resource intensive. I don't mean to suggest that it's a bad idea, but it will reduce what you have available elsewhere so it is very much a strategic level decision.

[Lowpe]

I would say China would suck supplies away from the coast...but here the Burma road is open and there are no exclamation points in Chinese held bases.

[Lowpe]

Japan has to keep a garrison, if it falls below the garrison requirement then a roll is made -- so it isn't automatic. It has nothing to do with the amount of your troops present.

I have no clue what your two other options are, but I suspect activating the Soviets early would be the toughest as you need to destroy/disable enough AV to cause Japan to drop below the garrison requirement, and then get the die roll. That is what makes the strategy attractive.[:)]

However, with an active China....

[Canoerebel]

Supply is arriving at Rangoon in pretty large amounts now. The Chinese bases and units in China are fully supplied. Some Chinese units are beginning to fill out.

But I don't plan to expand the ground war in China. I'll take Amoy. I may move on Swatow, just to keep up the appearance of a major offensive (I'm seeing a lot of movement dots on John's MLR with today's new turn, so John is reacting sharply now - I want to keep him thinking that way).

The importance of Formosa is so obvious that John will have to engage in mental gymnastics to reconcile himself to losing it. He poured 150k troops into it during the lead-up to Peep Show and he really worked its air defense hard. So, at one time he rated Formosa very highly.

If he keeps KB in the DEI with the Allies biting off chunks of China and Formosa, he's neutered himself as a general; he's too much in love with his Navy to expend it; he's fallen into the trap that General Lee spoke of (something to this effect: A good general must love his men but must be willing to lose his men; he must be willing to destroy that which he loves). Is John so in love with his navy that he's lost the ability to use sound military judgment?

[paullus99]

Yes.

And to expand slightly, for John, it's always about the Navy, balanced with a desire to kill as much as he possibly can (a very offensive-minded fellow, by all indications).

It appears the desire to keep his remaining fleet intact is a lot more important than keep you from ranging in on the home islands

[witpqs]

Is John so in love with his navy that he's lost the ability to use sound military judgment?

Turkey trots to water.

[Canoerebel]

8/7/44

Peep Show: No CAP over Formosa again today. If Allied bombers close Taichu (they should soon), his closest airfields will be Wenchow (level 3) and Okinawa. In other words, he won't have the ability to contest the air battle over Formosa.

Meanwhile, the Allies will have to big airfields (Amoy and Foochow) in close proximity, and Orchid Island went to level two today.

A mixed brigade arrived at Amoy today, in time to spoil the Allied deliberate attack, though forts dropped to 3. But I think this unit was his biggest defense force on the coast. If, as I expect, Allied bombers manhandle it, and if the next Allied attack overwhelms the defenses, John's position in coastal China collapses.

With this turn, I suddenly see lots of movement dots on his MLR today. So he's reacting sharply - perhaps even panicking a bit.

[Canoerebel]

8/7/44

SEAC: Signs that John is drawing down his MLR in China and pushing up big units from Indochina; this is understandable but ultimately may contribute to the avalanche, as Allied units may be able to press forward more freely....eventually moving into China and linking up with the Peep Show troops.

[Canoerebel]

8/7/44

KB: John's carriers are in position to do something....but haven't done anything yet.

[Canoerebel]

8/7/44

Aircraft Losses: John's losing a lot of good aircraft on the ground every day.

[paullus99]

Better he lose those Franks on the ground than you having to face them in the air....It appears that John didn't consider just how vulnerable Formosa is to bombardments.

[Panther Bait]

He might have thought the rail network on the island would help, but not when CR can shut all the fields down at the same time.

[DRF99]

John pounded CR in Sumatra with constant bombardments. Now it's payback time.