The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[paullus99]

Via the maps, it appears John is trying to contain you in China & may even have thoughts of a counter-attack. I'm not sure, again, that he realizes just how dangerous a re-supplied and re-equipped Chinese Army is.

If you can continue to dump supplies through Rangoon or even closer to the front, then it becomes the Chinese Army doing most of the heavy lifting in pinning down John's troops & then you just bombing the hell out of anything that enters clear terrain.

Have fun!

[Canoerebel]

There are two key aspects to the ground war in China that will determine how things play out into the medium term:

1) Supply is coming in from Rangoon in moderate amounts now, but most of the Chinese units are in non-base hexes. So they aren't eligible to upgrade to '43 squads. To this point, that hasn't been an issue, because the supply faucet has only just turned on. But as units begin to upgrade in bases, I'll move them forward while replacing them with "lesser" units rotating back. That's just happened at Chungking, where a big Chinese corps has gone to '43 squads. As soon as a replacement garrison unit arrives, that corps will move forward. It's prepping for Canton. But the changeover to '43 squads will be sporadic and protracted - it isn't going to have an impact for quite some time.

2) The bigger question is whether John maintains a viable defensive line that keeps the western Allied units in Vietnam from linking up with Chinese units in China. If the western Allies bust through at Hanoi/Haiphong/Lan Song, then they can move on Canton in strength or move to break the main Japanese MLR in the Nanning to Changsha sector. Either way, the balance of power would tip dramatically, I think, in China.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Via the maps, it appears John is trying to contain you in China & may even have thoughts of a counter-attack. I'm not sure, again, that he realizes just how dangerous a re-supplied and re-equipped Chinese Army is.

If you can continue to dump supplies through Rangoon or even closer to the front, then it becomes the Chinese Army doing most of the heavy lifting in pinning down John's troops & then you just bombing the hell out of anything that enters clear terrain.

Have fun!

In my experience Chinese troops aren't that great on attack...especially where the Japanese have had a chance to dig in and fortify. Where they do seem to do well is once supply is gone for Japan, and also if you can attack Japanese garrison troops -- the light divisions lacking in artillery.

Another option would be to do a broad front attack and everywhere and then follow up on the weak areas or just to start a huge bombardment campaign. And let us not forget about the Allied strength in the air....what does the Chinese Air Force look like?

There are so many fascinating tactical options open for both sides in this game...it is great to watch it unfold.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There are two key aspects to the ground war in China that will determine how things play out into the medium term:

1) Supply is coming in from Rangoon in moderate amounts now, but most of the Chinese units are in non-base hexes. So they aren't eligible to upgrade to '43 squads. To this point, that hasn't been an issue, because the supply faucet has only just turned on. But as units begin to upgrade in bases, I'll move them forward while replacing them with "lesser" units rotating back. That's just happened at Chungking, where a big Chinese corps has gone to '43 squads. As soon as a replacement garrison unit arrives, that corps will move forward. It's prepping for Canton. But the changeover to '43 squads will be sporadic and protracted - it isn't going to have an impact for quite some time.

2) The bigger question is whether John maintains a viable defensive line that keeps the western Allied units in Vietnam from linking up with Chinese units in China. If the western Allies bust through at Hanoi/Haiphong/Lan Song, then they can move on Canton in strength or move to break the main Japanese MLR in the Nanning to Changsha sector. Either way, the balance of power would tip dramatically, I think, in China.

My view of China is that once you are on the ground in force with a beachhead that can be supplied and defended then there is really no 'line' the Japanese can create that you cannot bypass with naval transport.

[paullus99]

Or need to for that matter.

And to clarify my remarks about the Chinese Army - they can absorb the losses & a beefier Chinese Corp can take quite a bit of punishment.

[Canoerebel]

There is an unusual set of circumstances that limits what I can do in China. Logistics and supply are at the heart of the matter.

The western Allies have taken Foochow and Amoy in great shape with a strong army of six divisions. If I had lots of supply, I'd simply turn this in to the next big campaign, dumping supply and troops and moving to isolate and destroy John's army and them go north.

But I'm at the end of a year-long campaign and at the far end of an LOC that stretches from San Francisco to Oz to the DEI to Manila to Foochow. It takes time and a great deal of resources, at some risk, to push supply that far forward.

Peep Show took place with only about 100k supply - not enough to sustain a major campaign in China. Even when the next influx of supply arrives, I don't want to dump it at Foochow only to have it dribble out into the countryside.

Instead, Peep Show I was purposefully designed to take Foochow for strategic bombing purposes. I'm building the base big and will keep it well supplied. Peep Show II targets Formosa, where supply won't dribble away. Formosa gives me additional big airfields, denies them to John, and allows me to work on a major part of the Japanese army.

I want most of the supply and ground troops in the coming China campaign to come from Rangoon (the supply) and the western Allies (moving up from Indochina).

Once Formosa is in hand, the Allies will focus on two things for the balance of 1944: taking another strategic bombing platform closer to Japan (northern China, Korea, Home Islands, whatever); cleaning up the rear, taking important points/resource bases like Singapore, Batavia, Soerabaja, Balikpapan, Port Moresby and maybe Rabaul.

By the end of 1944, John's DEI holdings will be fragmented and essentially worthless. The Home Islands will be under seige by air, if not by land and sea also.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There are two key aspects to the ground war in China that will determine how things play out into the medium term:

1) Supply is coming in from Rangoon in moderate amounts now, but most of the Chinese units are in non-base hexes. So they aren't eligible to upgrade to '43 squads. To this point, that hasn't been an issue, because the supply faucet has only just turned on. But as units begin to upgrade in bases, I'll move them forward while replacing them with "lesser" units rotating back. That's just happened at Chungking, where a big Chinese corps has gone to '43 squads. As soon as a replacement garrison unit arrives, that corps will move forward. It's prepping for Canton. But the changeover to '43 squads will be sporadic and protracted - it isn't going to have an impact for quite some time.

2) The bigger question is whether John maintains a viable defensive line that keeps the western Allied units in Vietnam from linking up with Chinese units in China. If the western Allies bust through at Hanoi/Haiphong/Lan Song, then they can move on Canton in strength or move to break the main Japanese MLR in the Nanning to Changsha sector. Either way, the balance of power would tip dramatically, I think, in China.

Supply will start to heal disruption and low morale as well. Not to mention replacements.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There is an unusual set of circumstances that limits what I can do in China. Logistics and supply are at the heart of the matter.

The western Allies have taken Foochow and Amoy in great shape with a strong army of six divisions. If I had lots of supply, I'd simply turn this in to the next big campaign, dumping supply and troops and moving to isolate and destroy John's army and them go north.

But I'm at the end of a year-long campaign and at the far end of an LOC that stretches from San Francisco to Oz to the DEI to Manila to Foochow. It takes time and a great deal of resources, at some risk, to push supply that far forward.

Peep Show took place with only about 100k supply - not enough to sustain a major campaign in China. Even when the next influx of supply arrives, I don't want to dump it at Foochow only to have it dribble out into the countryside.

Instead, Peep Show I was purposefully designed to take Foochow for strategic bombing purposes. I'm building the base big and will keep it well supplied. Peep Show II targets Formosa, where supply won't dribble away. Formosa gives me additional big airfields, denies them to John, and allows me to work on a major part of the Japanese army.

I want most of the supply and ground troops in the coming China campaign to come from Rangoon (the supply) and the western Allies (moving up from Indochina).

Once Formosa is in hand, the Allies will focus on two things for the balance of 1944: taking another strategic bombing platform closer to Japan (northern China, Korea, Home Islands, whatever); cleaning up the rear, taking important points/resource bases like Singapore, Batavia, Soerabaja, Balikpapan, Port Moresby and maybe Rabaul.

By the end of 1944, John's DEI holdings will be fragmented and essentially worthless. The Home Islands will be under seige by air, if not by land and sea also.

And the question really is-is there any need for a campaign at all in China. From here on the focus will be on taking airbases big enough and close enough to attack Japan directly. The road to victory leads to Tokyo. Central China really does not matter if you hold key positions on the coast. South Korea might be more significant. If I recall I got enough supply from Rangoon to supply my interior Chinese troops. Once I retook Chunking that is. That was enough to tie up a lot of Japanese troops in China.

[Mike McCreery]

The only real goal of any China campaign is to hold as many troops on that continent and thus make a conquest of the Home Islands much easier.

If CR's end game goal is the strategic bombing he is indicating he plans on doing then it would be a distraction.

[paullus99]

Agreed - keep as many of those divisions tied down will pay dividends. John can't afford to just give up potential airbases at this point.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Via the maps, it appears John is trying to contain you in China & may even have thoughts of a counter-attack. I'm not sure, again, that he realizes just how dangerous a re-supplied and re-equipped Chinese Army is.

If you can continue to dump supplies through Rangoon or even closer to the front, then it becomes the Chinese Army doing most of the heavy lifting in pinning down John's troops & then you just bombing the hell out of anything that enters clear terrain.

Have fun!

In my experience Chinese troops aren't that great on attack...especially where the Japanese have had a chance to dig in and fortify. Where they do seem to do well is once supply is gone for Japan, and also if you can attack Japanese garrison troops -- the light divisions lacking in artillery.

Another option would be to do a broad front attack and everywhere and then follow up on the weak areas or just to start a huge bombardment campaign. And let us not forget about the Allied strength in the air....what does the Chinese Air Force look like?

There are so many fascinating tactical options open for both sides in this game...it is great to watch it unfold.

They don't do well against fortifications, but they can cause casualties against the Japanese just fine. And VP-wise, they're only worth half as much... The entire Chinese army is kind of like a giant barbed/weighted net. It holds the IJA down at least or constrains their movements/forces other movements, and at best it can actually capture places. They're only lacking in combat engineers and tanks, so those are the observable consequences. When supplied and with 1943 Chinese squads, and even Exp around 50-55, a Chinese Corps of 400+ AV is about equal to an IJ ID. And you get more of them. And they go up into the 700s on AV if you do it right.

Now that CR has tanks and such on the coast, I would expect the IJA to crumble. It's only a matter of time - will it be sooner or later?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There is an unusual set of circumstances that limits what I can do in China. Logistics and supply are at the heart of the matter.

The western Allies have taken Foochow and Amoy in great shape with a strong army of six divisions. If I had lots of supply, I'd simply turn this in to the next big campaign, dumping supply and troops and moving to isolate and destroy John's army and them go north.

But I'm at the end of a year-long campaign and at the far end of an LOC that stretches from San Francisco to Oz to the DEI to Manila to Foochow. It takes time and a great deal of resources, at some risk, to push supply that far forward.

Peep Show took place with only about 100k supply - not enough to sustain a major campaign in China. Even when the next influx of supply arrives, I don't want to dump it at Foochow only to have it dribble out into the countryside.

Instead, Peep Show I was purposefully designed to take Foochow for strategic bombing purposes. I'm building the base big and will keep it well supplied. Peep Show II targets Formosa, where supply won't dribble away. Formosa gives me additional big airfields, denies them to John, and allows me to work on a major part of the Japanese army.

I want most of the supply and ground troops in the coming China campaign to come from Rangoon (the supply) and the western Allies (moving up from Indochina).

Once Formosa is in hand, the Allies will focus on two things for the balance of 1944: taking another strategic bombing platform closer to Japan (northern China, Korea, Home Islands, whatever); cleaning up the rear, taking important points/resource bases like Singapore, Batavia, Soerabaja, Balikpapan, Port Moresby and maybe Rabaul.

By the end of 1944, John's DEI holdings will be fragmented and essentially worthless. The Home Islands will be under seige by air, if not by land and sea also.

And the question really is-is there any need for a campaign at all in China. From here on the focus will be on taking airbases big enough and close enough to attack Japan directly. The road to victory leads to Tokyo. Central China really does not matter if you hold key positions on the coast. South Korea might be more significant. If I recall I got enough supply from Rangoon to supply my interior Chinese troops. Once I retook Chunking that is. That was enough to tie up a lot of Japanese troops in China.

In my experience, what I call "central China" (the area around Changsha) is probably necessary for good propagation of supplies to airbases on the coast - the bases near Shanghai, for example - from which to bomb Japan. Without the good roads/rails from up there, supplies seem to move slowly.

Dropping supplies on the coast at a Foochow-like area does do wonders, though.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There is an unusual set of circumstances that limits what I can do in China. Logistics and supply are at the heart of the matter.

The western Allies have taken Foochow and Amoy in great shape with a strong army of six divisions. If I had lots of supply, I'd simply turn this in to the next big campaign, dumping supply and troops and moving to isolate and destroy John's army and them go north.

But I'm at the end of a year-long campaign and at the far end of an LOC that stretches from San Francisco to Oz to the DEI to Manila to Foochow. It takes time and a great deal of resources, at some risk, to push supply that far forward.

Peep Show took place with only about 100k supply - not enough to sustain a major campaign in China. Even when the next influx of supply arrives, I don't want to dump it at Foochow only to have it dribble out into the countryside.

Instead, Peep Show I was purposefully designed to take Foochow for strategic bombing purposes. I'm building the base big and will keep it well supplied. Peep Show II targets Formosa, where supply won't dribble away. Formosa gives me additional big airfields, denies them to John, and allows me to work on a major part of the Japanese army.

I want most of the supply and ground troops in the coming China campaign to come from Rangoon (the supply) and the western Allies (moving up from Indochina).

Once Formosa is in hand, the Allies will focus on two things for the balance of 1944: taking another strategic bombing platform closer to Japan (northern China, Korea, Home Islands, whatever); cleaning up the rear, taking important points/resource bases like Singapore, Batavia, Soerabaja, Balikpapan, Port Moresby and maybe Rabaul.

By the end of 1944, John's DEI holdings will be fragmented and essentially worthless. The Home Islands will be under seige by air, if not by land and sea also.

And the question really is-is there any need for a campaign at all in China. From here on the focus will be on taking airbases big enough and close enough to attack Japan directly. The road to victory leads to Tokyo. Central China really does not matter if you hold key positions on the coast. South Korea might be more significant. If I recall I got enough supply from Rangoon to supply my interior Chinese troops. Once I retook Chunking that is. That was enough to tie up a lot of Japanese troops in China.

In my experience, what I call "central China" (the area around Changsha) is probably necessary for good propagation of supplies to airbases on the coast - the bases near Shanghai, for example - from which to bomb Japan. Without the good roads/rails from up there, supplies seem to move slowly.

Dropping supplies on the coast at a Foochow-like area does do wonders, though.

Amoy has that great first-class road going north all the way to link with the one to Changsha and Hangchow. That is why I think Amoy is the key to the whole area.

[Canoerebel]

8/13/44

Carrier Games: KB is moving SW, staying ahead of Death Star, which stayed in place near Mindanao....and today John caught wind of Mini DS in the Gulf of Carpentaria. What's he doing to do?

[Canoerebel]

8/13/44

DS & KB: Death Star seems to have "pushed" KB to the south, far from "relevance." If John shows any inclination to send his carriers to Formosa, I'll use DS to block the way, if possible. At some point he may get an opportunity, as DS will have to refuel. If he does get a window, I don't mind that much, as long as KB doesn't have more than a few days on station near Formosa before DS returns. IE, keeping Formosa's airfields suppressed or mostly so is the highest priority now.

[Canoerebel]

8/13/44

SEAC & Peep Show: Indochina continues to look good.

[BBfanboy]

IME, I have never seen a sub attack in a hex with more than two sub TFs present - I put it down to the AI being unable to compute what coverage they have in the hex. All those subs in front of Miri should spread around a little more IMO.

Nice job on those 60+ Jills at Ternate!
John may have figured out how to build oodles of aircraft but I have to wonder if his pilot losses are now getting critical ...

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, BBfanboy. I've made adjustment to sub distribution.

[Canoerebel]

I changed my mind and took some risks with the next turn.

I believe there's a 50% chance John will send KB NW, to the South China Sea, and a 50% change he'll send it SE, towards the Allied Mini Death Star in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Mini DS is just 15 hexes from Boela, and I've decided to move it forward to port. This is based upon a gut feeling that John might try one flank-speed move but not two. If he did the latter, his fuel and SYS damage issues would be pretty dramatic. If he does move flank speed SE tomorrow, I'll probably divide my TFs into slow and fast, moving the latter at flank speed to Boela and dispersing the former to a number of bases and dot hexes fairly close to Boela.

In the meantime, Death Star will leave the Sulu Sea and hug the Mindanao coastline. I've reduced aircraft ranges to four to avoid a CAP trap at Manado.

There is some risk in doing these things, but I think my analysis is correct. The payoff is that the combined Death Star and Mini Death Star will be in much better position to return to Formosa as soon as possible. That's the key consideration here. Beat John back there...or at least return so quickly that KB doesn't have time to gain an advantage should it get there first.

[BillBrown]

Decisions, decisions, decisions. [8D]