The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

I also just watched that documentary

That historians little antidotes have always been my favorite part.

Shelby Foote. I have his three volume set history of the war, but I have never managed to finish them all. He's great on camera.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Repairing LI at this point makes no sense at all because it eats 1000 supply per. It's not about the break even calculation per se at this point, getting back a few points per turn for a few thousand consumed makes no sense.

I disagree. The break-even argument is long-standing on the forum. It's only one dimension. Alfred long ago made excellent arguments about opportunity cost being the proper lens to look at repairs through. I support that.

You can spend/expense the thousand locally, sure. Combat, replacements, air missions, etc. Then it's gone. At that point the logistic structures have to swing into action to bring more. Ships, fuel, ship damage and subsequent repair time and resources consumed, risk of ship loss and lost VPs. Transit time. Player workload overhead. Tying up ships that could be doing other things. Once a pile is brought to the receiving port, distribution time and possible transit loss.

If Resources are transit-free (and they are pretty much everywhere the Allies go), the only consideration is 1000 now for 1 per day forever per repaired point. Thirty per month forever, per repaired point. Of supply with no risk and no cost. You also get into a "charitable curve" where formerly repaired LI helps fund succeeding 1000s at an accelerating rate.

Right now almost all of CR's attention is focused on using DS to get his log through from far away at risk of loss and opportunity cost of having DS tied up for at least many weeks. All to bring supply to the PI for strat bombing, and China for land ops. When both land masses make a lot of supply for free. Maybe none is damaged; I don't know. But if any is it makes sense to me to fix it at a one-time cost rather than pay until the end of the war for expensed supply from SF. Location has great value.

[paullus99]

When Shelby died, we lost a great historian.

I'll treasure his work for the rest of my life & have them on my kids' reading lists for when they get older.

[Canoerebel]

Shelby Foote was the historian who wrote something to this effect: "For every southern boy, there comes a day when it's noon on July 3, 1863."

He was referring to the fact that most of us were raised with a knowledge of, and reverence for, the Civil War...and that Picket's Charge represented the penultimate moment of that great conflict.

He was right...in 1900 and 1940 and 1970. But that's no longer the case. High school curriculums, and social sensibilities, have minimized instruction on that war and many other things that seemed significant to prior generations. A 30-year-old friend who interned here - one of the smartest young people I've ever known - has never heard of Pickett's Charge (or the Bismarck, for that matter). He has a master's degree in Chinese and is very well read. But mention the Civil War and, for him, crickets chirp.

[Canoerebel]

You guys have launched into an interesting discussion on supply generation. At the moment it's way over my head. I hadn't even considered what might be involved in generating supply locally. I don't even know what it takes to generate supply. The best I can come up with is that it involves oil (or is it resources?) and heavy or light industry.

I'm not asking you to bring the discussion down to my level; rather, it's up to me to jump on this good idea and figure out what's involved and whether it makes sense to do this.

I don't know where I have heavy/light industry. I do have some accumulated oil and resources at some of the bases I've taken. On a few occasions, I've even shipped oil from Boela and Babo to generate fuel in Australia.

[Canoerebel]

8/14/44

KB, DS, Mini DS Play Chicken: A complicated and interesting game of Chicken has developed in the DEI.

[Lowpe]

You guys have it set in your mind that John is playing the VP game, well until now...it is kind of sad.[8|]

Sure the VP are there, and important, but there are many other reasons why Japan is doing what it is doing. I know I am fairly clueless about Allied considerations in the late game. I am not saying John is right or wrong or hurting himself (or not) because he isn't doing the anticipated Allied course of action.

You have just now keyed into another possible explanation for his actions, and that is to buy time. But there are others, even more important explanations that I suspect only a JFB can appreciate.

He is basically playing the endgame for the first time himself and is doing imho, very well. He has not thrown up his hands and quit. He has not thrown away the KB in a futile clash with the Deathstar.

Japan's behavior is not wrecking the game...simply because Japan is not behaving the way you want it to do. And who is to say how Japan would have reacted irl, given the the same circumstances that John finds himself in.

I have news for you too...Formosa is a glass cannon. Once Orchid Island was taken, Formosa was doomed. There isn't a single runway that isn't on the beaches. Now that Foochow is taken, it is doubly doomed. So it is either a POW camp or the target for the next invasion whatever CR decides...but isn't it great that John is forcing CR to make difficult decisions still at this late date?

It is what makes the game great...and for taking Tokyo as a victory condition...I think that is a horrible idea, as it is limiting to the strategies and tactics both sides take. If you want Tokyo...then go for it, but why handicap late war strategies with such a handcuff?

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Shelby Foote was the historian who wrote something to this effect: "For every southern boy, there comes a day when it's noon on July 3, 1863."

I think in "The Civil War" he quoted that line and said it was Faulkner who originated. From memory.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You guys have launched into an interesting discussion on supply generation. At the moment it's way over my head. I hadn't even considered what might be involved in generating supply locally. I don't even know what it takes to generate supply. The best I can come up with is that it involves oil (or is it resources?) and heavy or light industry.

I'm not asking you to bring the discussion down to my level; rather, it's up to me to jump on this good idea and figure out what's involved and whether it makes sense to do this.

I don't know where I have heavy/light industry. I do have some accumulated oil and resources at some of the bases I've taken. On a few occasions, I've even shipped oil from Boela and Babo to generate fuel in Australia.

It's a couple of short sections in the manual in the Production chapter. LI needs only Resources. They flow to the LI factories. LI is all over the place. Each base screen shows it on the bottom row of icon, or you can look at the Industry tab on the tool bar. Hotkey "I" I think.

AFBs don't need to do a lot of this, but some. Especially when the distances from CONUS get extreme.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

I also just watched that documentary

That historians little antidotes have always been my favorite part.

Shelby Foote. I have his three volume set history of the war, but I have never managed to finish them all. He's great on camera.

I have the audio book version that he read himself, unabridged. Great for car trips. I bet it is on youtube or somewhere...his voice has lulled me to sleep in the passenger seat many a time...which of course is reason to rewind and play it again.

[Canoerebel]

8/14/44

Manila Light Industry & Resources: Both are present.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/14/44

Manila Light Industry & Resources: Both are present.

You're good at Manila. No damage.

Each of the 100 LI factories uses 15 Resources a day (1500 per day total) to make 100 Supply per day in total.

If you look at bases with connections to Manila you'll find other Resource producers. I don't have the game open now. Many Resource producing bases have no other industry, so the Resources flow to where the demand is.

China is more important to me. Where do you have organic supply (supply that "just happens" with no LI or HI present.) Where are you making LI supply? China is riskier to supply than the PI now.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/14/44

Manila Light Industry & Resources: Both are present.

100 supplies per day until those 45K Resources are finished.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I have the audio book version that he read himself, unabridged. Great for car trips. I bet it is on youtube or somewhere...his voice has lulled me to sleep in the passenger seat many a time...which of course is reason to rewind and play it again.

It's on Netflix right now. Also Ken Burns' "The War", about WWII. I'm re-watching it at the gym on my phone.

[Lowpe]

I vote with Bullwinkle and think the supply generation should be repaired if damaged. Plus oil and refineries depending upon the total number of refineries available.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

You guys have it set in your mind that John is playing the VP game, well until now...it is kind of sad.[8|]

Sure the VP are there, and important, but there are many other reasons why Japan is doing what it is doing. I know I am fairly clueless about Allied considerations in the late game. I am not saying John is right or wrong or hurting himself (or not) because he isn't doing the anticipated Allied course of action.

You have just now keyed into another possible explanation for his actions, and that is to buy time. But there are others, even more important explanations that I suspect only a JFB can appreciate.

He is basically playing the endgame for the first time himself and is doing imho, very well. He has not thrown up his hands and quit. He has not thrown away the KB in a futile clash with the Deathstar.

Japan's behavior is not wrecking the game...simply because Japan is not behaving the way you want it to do. And who is to say how Japan would have reacted irl, given the the same circumstances that John finds himself in.

I have news for you too...Formosa is a glass cannon. Once Orchid Island was taken, Formosa was doomed. There isn't a single runway that isn't on the beaches. Now that Foochow is taken, it is doubly doomed. So it is either a POW camp or the target for the next invasion whatever CR decides...but isn't it great that John is forcing CR to make difficult decisions still at this late date?

It is what makes the game great...and for taking Tokyo as a victory condition...I think that is a horrible idea, as it is limiting to the strategies and tactics both sides take. If you want Tokyo...then go for it, but why handicap late war strategies with such a handcuff?

First, I agree about Tokyo. That would cause ALL sorts of torqueing late-game moves by Japan. Uber-uber stacks, etc.

And we got a surrender without setting foot on the HI. The VP system is near-genius. It works.

The rest . . .

I agree playing for time is smart. It's the best move by Japan because, as I say until I'm just tired, the Allies can't win by ANY other means but auto-victory. And that has time limits built in.

But. John isn't doing that either. To me he's "milling about smartly." He's not cracking on down south to harvest VPs and apply great pressure on LOCs. He's not maxing damage to the fleet up north. A mission kill is fine for Japan at this point. It's what kamis were for. And they worked well for that. Sacrificing the KB to put 2/3 of the DS in the yards would be a great move. Once he's out of fuel it's useless anyway. Crunching DS makes everything else Allied more vulnerable to air attack, including kamis. But he isn't going that either.

I'm not sure what he's doing. But CR has total visibility of his important fleet units. CR's maps just amaze me every day compared to what I can see of Japan in my Lokasenna game. It's like CR has Keyhole sats. John is not throwing chairs and tables in CRs' path. Landing after landing. When is the last time CR worried about mines? I don't know.

No, he hasn't quit. But sometimes I get the feeling he's up here in the bleachers with us, watching CR move.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I vote with Bullwinkle and think the supply generation should be repaired if damaged. Plus oil and refineries depending upon the total number of refineries available.

You guys are wrong. Doing so is very situation dependent. In this case, how is the Allied supply stockpile going to be destroyed? He is so far maintaining air superiority protecting from both air and naval bombardments and certainly land attacks will not seize the stockpiles.

The notion of repairing supply generation when that will not pay back pertains when the supply stockpile is in danger of being destroyed or captured, or dispersed undesirably by the game engine. Those things will not happen on Luzon or Formosa.

On the mainland dispersal will only start to happen when LOCs are established with the Chinese Army.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
You guys are wrong. Doing so is very situation dependent.

These two statements are in opposition.

Supply is "destroyed" by use. All I'm arguing is to secure production right here, with no time lag, where possible, while the supply pile is un-used by combat . . yet.

I wouldn't repair LI in Melbourne. I would in HK.

[Canoerebel]

8/14/44

Peep Show: Formosa's airfield look to be in a bad way. Allied stack knocks back battered enemy stack towards Swatow. I don't think John has anything to fight with closer than Kukong. I'm not going much further on this side of China, due both to supply considerations and to the fact that a goodly number of my divisions are highly prepped for Formosa.

Indochina: The southern Allied army will begin arriving at Saigon the day after tomorrow. The northern army took Vinh today. The road to Hanoi/Haiphong looks open. John could be hiding a stiff little army somewhere in Indochina, but I don't see it.

What happens next? (1) on the Malaya front, I'm establishing a little MLR SW of Bangkok, meant to hold until (one day, three or so months from now) I'm finished in China and ready to move on Singapore; (2) the combined southern and northern components of the Allied armies in Indochina will move on Hanoi/Haiphong and then into China. I hope this will be sufficient, when combined with Chinese troops and the Peep Show lodgments, to break John's back in China. I can foresee a day when there's one front in China, with Chinese infantry handling most of the ground war and the Western Allies handling the air war. As soon as that's the case, the western Allied troops that came up from Indochina will move south for the Singapore campaign (I think).

[Canoerebel]

8/14/44

Resources in the Philippines: Looks like 400k+ spread between three bases in the Central PI. Barges will begin transporting that to Legaspi.