You Are The One

[davidachamberlain]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

Maybe the best idea here is to switch to 2D10 and never worry about rolling a 1 for land combat ever again.

The odds still can bite you.

I've had air battles destroying planes on both sizes with extreme low rolls multiple times in a row. Works well for the one with better production.

Dave

[TeaLeaf]

Humans and statistics mingle badly .
Too often have I heard a human yell at the dice "that is impossible! What are the odds of that!"

Speaking about biting odds; how about Allies loosing 8 FTR out of their 12 total available in one theatre against the axis loosing no air at all.
This happened during exactly 1 phase (4 ground strikes). AtA Odds were divided evenly, from +2/-2 to -2/+2 for both sides over the field.

Also during that game the axis naval searches found 80% of the time from '2' or '3' box and the allied searches only 30% of the time from '3' or '4' boxes.

Only thing the allied dice could manage to do is winning initiative...
Luck to average out is a myth kept alive by the lucky dice rollers .

[rkr1958]

Hey, I've a got a joke that's appropriate.

How do you save a statistician from drowning?

[rkr1958]

You stop holding his head under water. [:D]

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: davidachamberlain

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

Maybe the best idea here is to switch to 2D10 and never worry about rolling a 1 for land combat ever again.

The odds still can bite you.

I've had air battles destroying planes on both sizes with extreme low rolls multiple times in a row. Works well for the one with better production.

Dave

The only claim I'm making is the prevention of '1's in ground combat.

[brian brian]

There can be only one!

But wait, there can be sequels. And then Television series, two. Somehow.

[paulderynck]

Yes but the sequels are very seldom any good at all.

[Courtenay]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

Maybe the best idea here is to switch to 2D10 and never worry about rolling a 1 for land combat ever again.

[:)]

[GaPete_slith]

I used the Paris attacks as an example because it illustrated what was going on. It isn't about being fair, the random number generator was not being random for two games in a row. What I wanted to know was there some modifier I missed in the rules or, had anyone else encountered this strange thing. Most rolls were ones and I didn't get a single roll over three, for two games in a row. Didn't matter who was attacking or where. This past game I dropped the single dice and went to the other chart and I'm getting random results again. This is also not the only weird thing that has happened since the last update. In this game, that I am playing now, US Navy carrier planes are changing between turns. It's happened three times, and even with those not currently based on a carrier. I'll have the fleet filled up with aircraft, and when I start the next turn and look back on them, all of the aircraft are older models, and the carriers are not even filled to capacity. Not trying to bitch here guys, looking for information, and possible fixes. At the least, that the next update will fix these problems.

[paulderynck]

The only way to possibly track down the issue with the CVPs is to provide before and after saved game files.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

The only way to possibly track down the issue with the CVPs is to provide before and after saved game files.

Yes. At a minimum, the before GAM files.

[GaPete_slith]

If it happens again I will be ready for it and have the saved files. The first time it happened I had to wonder if I was imagining things. By the third time I knew absolutely it was real but had not saved the file. If it happens again, I'll have it.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: GaPete

...

In this game, that I am playing now, US Navy carrier planes are changing between turns. It's happened three times, and even with those not currently based on a carrier. I'll have the fleet filled up with aircraft, and when I start the next turn and look back on them, all of the aircraft are older models, and the carriers are not even filled to capacity. Not trying to bitch here guys, looking for information, and possible fixes. At the least, that the next update will fix these problems.

At the start of a new year the carrier air units may get 'reduced' so they fit on smaller carriers. See Players Manual Volume II, page 143. Also see Players Manual Volume I, page 193.

[Dabrion]

@fair etc..

there is a common notion that the MST-prng has a tendency to be streaky, thereby causing sequences that do not agree with the expected conditional means. I have some evidence and it is somewhat concerning.. , but it is by no means predictable and therefore not attackable. Statistically it is by all standards (still) random.

For my personal judgement that is the measurement to apply. If my opponent can predict my die roles I feel exposed.. if my die roles are streaky but unpredictable I dont. I just fell bad .. for my-self that is..

Coming from that point, I dont think that a "better" source of entropy is a remedy to the perceived notion of unfairness.

p.s.: If it helps at all, I have received the most brutal results not by pseudo-random-generated dice.. but by dice-towers when my opponent looked me right into the eyes