The Battle for Hans Island (no Xen2xen) please move to the AAR section

[palioboy2]

Hello all, sorry if this has been covered (I am sure it has) but my searches were coming up pretty fruitless.

My question is, what sort of aircraft production (namely fighters but all types would be interesting) has my opponent likely achieved at the start of Sept 1942 as the Japanese.

The intel screen tells me I have shot down (I know these numbers are subject to fog of war)

1100 A6M2's
600 Ki-43c's (plus around 120 a's and b's)
150 Ki-44-IIa
100 A6M3's

Which totals around 2200 fighters, which as of Sept 1 means he is losing around 275 fighters a month. Even if you cut that number in half to say 140 that seems like a lot. Am I doing enough damage to his air arm? What sort of losses can he absorb before he loses effectiveness?

Any info would be very interesting and helpful, thanks!

[PaxMondo]

In '42 the IJ can build all the fighters she wants. The impact of over building fighters in '42 will not be felt until '45 when he has to fight your P47's with Tojo's ...

[palioboy2]

Okay, so fighting hard is worth it at this point even though he is totally wearing my fighter force down? I am fighting defensively over Australia so I am not losing to many pilots and I a. developing some very high quality ones.

I have been leaving the higher quality pilots on the front line, since he now has some slightly better fighters to play with I figured I would use my pilots skill levels to help compensate for the fighter qualities.

Is this a good ideal, or should I stash them away for when I have some better crates for them to fly?

Am I creating enough causalities on his side that it should start to effect his pilot quality at all? How many pilots can the IJN and IJA realistically train to a decent standard per month?

[Aurorus]

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

Hello all, sorry if this has been covered (I am sure it has) but my searches were coming up pretty fruitless.

My question is, what sort of aircraft production (namely fighters but all types would be interesting) has my opponent likely achieved at the start of Sept 1942 as the Japanese.

The intel screen tells me I have shot down (I know these numbers are subject to fog of war)

1100 A6M2's
600 Ki-43c's (plus around 120 a's and b's)
150 Ki-44-IIa
100 A6M3's

Which totals around 2200 fighters, which as of Sept 1 means he is losing around 275 fighters a month. Even if you cut that number in half to say 140 that seems like a lot. Am I doing enough damage to his air arm? What sort of losses can he absorb before he loses effectiveness?

Any info would be very interesting and helpful, thanks!

The numbers appear to be on the high for Japanese naval figher losses. The IJA fighter losses appear to be quite acceptable for this point in the war. There are really many variables here: too many to give you an accurate estimation of the effect that these losses will have on pilot quality. I would suspect he will struggle with naval pilot quality for the duration of the war. He probably has a reasonable pool of army fighter pilots. Again, however, there are so many variables that it is difficult to say. Some depends upon how much continuous pressure you are able to place on him in 1943, when your own pools will be short for a few months. In 1944, you will have an enormous advantage in numbers and pilot quality will not be the determing factor in many air battles.

[palioboy2]

Thanks for the info all. This is my first PBEM, and it is a different beast then playing the AI that's for sure.

Any sort of advice and information is greatly appreciated!

[Aurorus]

I will say one thing about those losses. The A6M2 factories do not upgrade to a better model plane. Therefore, in my opinion, he has overproduced the A6M2 if he is able to sustain that level of losses. How much he has done so, I cannot say. For example, in 10 months of war, 1100 A6M2 losses is 110 per month, which is about 50 more than I like to produce per month in 1942. Some Japanese players do set their Zero production a little higher, however, and mine is on the low end. This will eventually have some effect on his production of later-war fighter models. The A6M2 can start off carrying the burden for Japan, when the allied pilot quality is poor. Eventually, however, the IJA should be the arm that bears a larger share of this burden.

[belfry]

I would have expected to see A6M3a by now so it may be that he's simply overproducing A6M2. If he has built up his production factories significantly then it will cost a lot of supplies only to see it wasted when better allied fighters come into play. If he hasn't got an aggressive (and supply expensive) program of r and d to get better Jap planes he will find that his current models will perish significantly in 43 and onward. He'll have access to Jacks and Georges by late 43 so they might start pulling down some of your bombers but until he gets Franks, Tonys and later on navy Sams he'll struggle against your fighters and even then ....he'll struggle...against numbers and quality. Just my take.

[palioboy2]

Thanks again for the great info. In his air attacks over my bases I am drawing more then 1 to 1 loses or greater very consistently. It seems worth it to keep defending in force until my fighter pools give out.

[rustysi]

Yeah, he should have the A6M3a's by now. Also his army bombers should be Helen IIa's by Sept, easily. His losses seem rather high and should be difficult to sustain. Especially for the IJN. I don't know what your opponent is up to, but you mentioned Australia. Could be he's overstepped. I like to try to limit Japan's early losses and think it can be done if Japan sticks to her strength's. How many losses have you taken. I mean against the AI I can easily get 4:1. In a PBEM I hope to approach roughly 2:1 in the early going. After that I'd be happy to get near 1:1, although I doubt it.

[PaxMondo]

+1 to the model mix and likely production issues.

As the allies, just fight to hold the line until '43. don't worry too much about what you lose unless there is auto-vic in your game.

as for pilots/pilot quality: if he has a good training program in place, he will have ample pilots. after 2/42 I never lack for fighter pilots ... I 'graduate' them in droves. IJN bomber pilots take until 5/42 that I have enough as they need multiple skills generally ...
now whether your opponent has such a process in place is unknowable, but he could. assume he does and you are safe.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

Okay, so fighting hard is worth it at this point even though he is totally wearing my fighter force down? I am fighting defensively over Australia so I am not losing to many pilots and I a. developing some very high quality ones.

I have been leaving the higher quality pilots on the front line, since he now has some slightly better fighters to play with I figured I would use my pilots skill levels to help compensate for the fighter qualities.

Is this a good ideal, or should I stash them away for when I have some better crates for them to fly?

Am I creating enough causalities on his side that it should start to effect his pilot quality at all? How many pilots can the IJN and IJA realistically train to a decent standard per month?

You should be killing Japanese aircraft at about a 3-2 rate at this point. Not because you are better but because you are playing defense. Air to air should be about 1-1 but you should be shooting down a lot of bombers and his OP and AA losses should be a lot more than yours.

[palioboy2]

He is basically only bombing in China. Where I haven't really been able to establish any sort of fighter defence. I have been pushed out of the Perth area and have a defensive parameter around Brisbane holding strong. He rarely Flys bombers anywhere where I can put up aircraft in defence. He is mainly sticking to sweeps. Im pretty sure I am drawing at least 3-2 loses but I would have to look it up to be sure.

[palioboy2]

So yesterdays losses were 58 fighters for me and 86 fighters for him. He only flew sweeps, no bombing missions. The following day he flew no fighters out of his bases around Brisbane. His loses were mainly A6M2's and 3's.

I feel like I am doing a good job, but I if he can maintain this pace eventually he is just going to wear me down to the nub. My fighters pools are already basically empty.

Are there any tips on how I can maximize my cap against fighter sweeps?

[palioboy2]

Today's fighter loses were 59 for him, 51 for me. His loses for the last 3 days are 145, can he sustain these loses for long? I have lost 109 fighters so I can't really hold these loses up for long.

[Insano]

All of the losses you posted in your first post look normal to me except the A6M2 which is very high. I would guess he is using partially trained pilots in these A6M2 frames without regard to their loss in order to wear down your fighter pools. 145 losses over 3 days is quite a butcher's bill for this date in the war. If this fighting is over your bases without his ground units or ships in the same hex then you can expect 145 fighter losses to be 100 pilot losses. Actually probably more than 100 pilot losses because he is using partially trained rookies.

I'll make another guess in that he didn't realize the A6M2 factories do not upgrade to A6M3. The A6M2 is starting to look quite dated at your stage of the war.

Positives for you:
1. You are applying serious pressure to his Navy fighter pilot pools. This is hitting him in his weakest spot as Navy pilots are always in short supply for Japan.
2. In a long term view every A6M2 he builds now will be a Frank or Sam that he doesn't build in 1944.

Negatives for you:
3. You are not applying pressure to attrition his fighter frames - especially Army fighters.
4. IJA pilot pools look to be good.
5. Your own fighter pools cannot sustain these losses.

Overall I'm going to say this situation is a draw.

[palioboy2]

No sweeps today. Again thanks for the info. I think I am going to keep posting results in this thread as much for my own tracking as anything else. If a mod feels like it is best to move it to another sub forum feel free to.

[InfiniteMonkey]

I feel compelled to jump in here and say that the supposed pressure on IJN pilot pools is overstated. With appropriate emphasis on a training program, every pilot you are seeing on sweeps would be 50exp/70air/70def. By 9/1/1942, the IJN has 4700 pilots to burn through before it drops below the 35 national average: 1700 in air groups at start, 1700 in the Replacement Pool, and 9 months x 150/month ~1300. Most of the 1700 starting pilots exceed 50 Exp and there is ample time and resources to train the remaining to a 50Exp/70skill1/70skill2 standard. The most recent 3 months graduates (450 pilots) of the off map training are still getting to that standard, but that leaves 4250 pilots you need to kill to drop his pilots below 50 exp. If total IJN losses are less than 4250, you should assume his pilot pool is unaffected. This all assumes you have no house rule severely restricting resizing.

The disproportionate losses are in fact probably because
1) the A6M2 has been his best fighter for the war to date, and
2) IJN pilots are easier to train than IJA pilots due to resizing.

The real question is "How good is his training program?"

[palioboy2]

Thanks again for the info. Another day of no sweeps. He launched a bombing raid against Brisbane itself that was escorted by around 75 fighters. I am not overly worried about damages to Brisbane so I had no cap overhead. He took quite a few loses to my flak and my fighters got another day of rest so it's a win win for me. His planes and pilots do seem as worn out as mine so hopefully he won't be able to maintain his pace of operations.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: InfiniteMonkey

I feel compelled to jump in here and say that the supposed pressure on IJN pilot pools is overstated. With appropriate emphasis on a training program, every pilot you are seeing on sweeps would be 50exp/70air/70def. By 9/1/1942, the IJN has 4700 pilots to burn through before it drops below the 35 national average: 1700 in air groups at start, 1700 in the Replacement Pool, and 9 months x 150/month ~1300. Most of the 1700 starting pilots exceed 50 Exp and there is ample time and resources to train the remaining to a 50Exp/70skill1/70skill2 standard. The most recent 3 months graduates (450 pilots) of the off map training are still getting to that standard, but that leaves 4250 pilots you need to kill to drop his pilots below 50 exp. If total IJN losses are less than 4250, you should assume his pilot pool is unaffected. This all assumes you have no house rule severely restricting resizing.

The disproportionate losses are in fact probably because
1) the A6M2 has been his best fighter for the war to date, and
2) IJN pilots are easier to train than IJA pilots due to resizing.

The real question is "How good is his training program?"

My post #10 above ...

[InfiniteMonkey]

ORIGINAL: PaxMundo
My post #10 above ...

Yup. Just reinforcing your point since I saw a couple comments about IJN pilot shortages in this situation and what I regard as potentially misleading info on pilot quality differences between IJN and IJA. I find IJA a lot harder to train than IJN. I think his opponent's IJA pilot situation is likely to be far more precarious than the IJN.