Mayhemizer vs AllenK: The resurrection!

[TeaLeaf]

Both axis and allies were receiving some bad luck so far but yeah, making +4 attacks is just asking for it, if you ask me [;)].
Let alone making a habit of it, but this game is still young [:)]. If one side can win by making lots and lots of low-mod attacks that side is just lucky!

The only exception to not making low-mod attacks would be (for me personally) if I have a superiority in land forces but cannot get high-mod attacks (for whatever reason, including persisting bad luck with ground strikes) resulting in a sitzkrieg. Even then, I've seen more than one German Barbarossa halted because the best them Germs could get was +8 and attacked.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I've never considered a 0.5 factor attack before. If you round up before calculating odds, there is no point in adding Shore Bombardment unless you add aerial Ground Support - begging a question of a similar case -- 1.5 : 1 is 2:1, or 3:2 ?

Yes, I've learned that lesson. Adding a last 0.5 to odds that are at *.5 does nothing since factors are rounded up anyway. But adding a last 0.5 to *.0 does make a difference.

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I've never considered a 0.5 factor attack before. If you round up before calculating odds, there is no point in adding Shore Bombardment unless you add aerial Ground Support - begging a question of a similar case -- 1.5 : 1 is 2:1, or 3:2 ?

I believe 1.5 would round up to 2, so the odds would be 2:1 or +4 before any other modifications. My understanding is that attack odds are calculated as the ratio of two whole numbers (i.e., A/D, where both A and D are integers).

[AllenK]

Rage against the dice having abated for the time being, back to trying to play sensibly. The land attacks as they should have been declared.

[AllenK]

In the Netherlands Germany could have opted for Blitz but go with Assault in order to avoid a potential ARM or MOT loss. It scrapes home.

[AllenK]

The invasion goes okay as well.

[TeaLeaf]

0.* attacking 0 combat factors is still automatic. Notionals tend to have 0 combat factors if they are out of supply (and not next a friendly corps or in a city or their own home nation hex).

1.5:1 would be 3:2, because that is actually a column in the CRT. 1.5:2 would round to 1:1. Or, with 1.5 ground support and 1.5 shore bombardment, 4.5:2->5:2. On the 1d10 CRT.
On 2D10 I'm not sure, but I believe it remains 4.5:2 = 2,25:1 = 4.5 mods which then rounds to 5 modifiers. But this may only work like this because I play with fractional odds.

[AllenK]

Two CP's are destroyed, two escape along with the CA's. I send them to Belfast as that looks a useful port bordering 2 sea zones and they can't go to Liverpool due to the Polish CP.

A Bf-109 E-1 rebases to just inside the Dutch border.

No reorganisations.

Back to Allies.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: TeaLeaf

0.* attacking 0 combat factors is still automatic. Notionals tend to have 0 combat factors if they are out of supply (and not next a friendly corps or in a city or their own home nation hex).

1.5:1 would be 3:2, because that is actually a column in the CRT. 1.5:2 would round to 1:1. Or, with 1.5 ground support and 1.5 shore bombardment, 4.5:2->5:2. On the 1d10 CRT.
On 2D10 I'm not sure, but I believe it remains 4.5:2 = 2,25:1 = 4.5 mods which then rounds to 5 modifiers. But this may only work like this because I play with fractional odds.

1.5:1 would be 2:1 because of the rule cut in below.

Cut from RAC:
11.16.5 Resolving attacks
Add up the attacking units’ (modified) combat factors, shore bombardment and ground support. Round the
total to the nearest whole number (rounding 0.5 up). Total the defending units’ factors in the same way.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: AllenK

The German attack is as dismal as the previous Japanese one.

Edit: Revised to lose HQ instead.

The HQ should have been part of this attack - adding HQ support. That would have changed the +13 to a +15. The chance of success would increase from 90% to 97%. Even a 4 would have taken Lodz.

===

My thought on whether to use the HQ in this case is: The HQ isn't going to do anything else this turn. There would be an oil cost to reorganize it. The primary goal for Germany in the first turn is to eliminate Poland. Failing to do that is bad news for the Axis.

[AllenK]

From where the HQ started the impulse, I couldn't get it into the attack without taking something else out. Logically that 5-4 INF would be the one, so the odds would have been the same. The +1 HQ support would have made a difference though, with 2 units lost to the resulting 19. With the reorganisation there still could have been a reasonable attack this impulse but the weather put paid to that.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I've never considered a 0.5 factor attack before. If you round up before calculating odds, there is no point in adding Shore Bombardment unless you add aerial Ground Support - begging a question of a similar case -- 1.5 : 1 is 2:1, or 3:2 ?

There is a way to play Fractional Odds called "Straight Fractionals" without anything rounded, ever. So is 3.5 : 7 a straight 1:2, or is it a 1:2 with a chance on an extra die to raise it to 1:1 ?

And then there is the mind-bending question of how Fractionals work below 1:1 anyway.


Rounding up first is a nice little bump for the micro-attack.

RAW:

Add up the attacking units’ (modified) combat factors, shore
bombardment and ground support. Round the total to the nearest
whole number (rounding 0.5 up).
Total the defending units’ factors in the same way.

And:

Option 41: (Fractional odds) Round to a whole number in favour of
the defender, then work out how far to the next odds ratio you are.
Round this in favour of the defender to the next 10%. Roll a die just
before rolling the combat die (you could roll it with the combat die
if you want), to see if you find the result on the lower odds or the
higher odds. If you roll the percentage or less, you resolve it on the
next higher odds, otherwise on the lower odds.
Example 1: 12:7 rounds to 3:2. But you have a spare 1.5 factors.
This is 42.9% of the way to 2:1 (i.e. 1.5/3.5). So you get a 40%
chance (i.e. a roll of 1-4) of resolving the combat at 2:1.
Example 2: 35:6 is 5.83:1 which rounds down to 5:1 but with an
80% chance of resolving the combat at 6:1.

So the calculation made by MWIF is correct, since the odds are always calculated using whole numbers and do not take into account fractions of those, even when using the fractional odds rule.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: AllenK

From where the HQ started the impulse, I couldn't get it into the attack without taking something else out. Logically that 5-4 INF would be the one, so the odds would have been the same. The +1 HQ support would have made a difference though, with 2 units lost to the resulting 19. With the reorganisation there still could have been a reasonable attack this impulse but the weather put paid to that.

The HQ would negate one of the city defenses, hence the +2.

[AllenK]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: AllenK

From where the HQ started the impulse, I couldn't get it into the attack without taking something else out. Logically that 5-4 INF would be the one, so the odds would have been the same. The +1 HQ support would have made a difference though, with 2 units lost to the resulting 19. With the reorganisation there still could have been a reasonable attack this impulse but the weather put paid to that.

The HQ would negate one of the city defenses, hence the +2.

I've never noticed that before. Thanks Steve, you live and learn.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

S/O 39 Allied 7

No DoW, but USSR is happy to announce, that they claim Bessarabia according to secret plan. Does Germany allow that? US has 2 chits in Ge/It pool, so it is perfectly safe for Allies [:)]

[Mayhemizer_slith]

I redo everything if Germany declines the claim. I move on.

CW naval, China land, others combined.

Naval air
CW Battle to BoB box 0.

Naval moves
French BB to West Med box 1.

CW sends 4 CP's from Greenland to North Atlantic, 3 CW CP's returns to Gibraltar and Liverpool.
5 Dutch CP's from Caribbean to CSV and 1 CP to East Coast.
2 BB's to BoB box 0.
CA from Gibraltar to CSV box 1.
CW fleet (CV and 5 CA's) from Aden to Egypt, Alexandria.
Dutch TRS to East Coast, loading Canadian TER.
Dutsch sub to Central Atlantic box 0.
One CW sub from Malta to Italian coast box 3.

CW TRS (loaded with MOT) from BoB enters to North Sea. Is Germany going to intercept?

[AllenK]

Good call on Bessarabia.

Yes please, intercept.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

With FTR or NAV?

[AllenK]

Let the Bf-110 have a go.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

On a 10 TRS sails to Amsterdam.

CA from Liverpool loaded with INF div enters to North Sea. Is Germany going to intercept that one too?

[AllenK]

May as well.