Beans, Bullets and Black Oil :: obvert (A) vs Lowpe (J)

[Encircled]

Lowpe strikes me as the sort of person who revels in a crisis!

Its got to be curiosity and the possibility of "what if I can do it?"

Bit like his West Coast Invasion against Jocke

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Encircled
Lowpe strikes me as the sort of person who revels in a crisis!

Its got to be curiosity and the possibility of "what if I can do it?"

Bit like his West Coast Invasion against Jocke

I think his earlier pick up game against tiemanj is even better example. Previous Japan player got Allies on his doorstep in early 1944, and Lowpe showed feats of resourcefulness and cunning in his defence of HI[&o]

[Bullwinkle58]

One time about two years ago (?) I counted up the Soviet infantry levels at the start and got something like 31 divisions and division equivalents. From memory. As you say, decent supply, and a lot more arty than China. Everybody always talks about how their air force is so weak, but Japan's level bombers aren't strong. If you move the fighters back out of the way and never confront him except with AA and forts I don't see how he begins to have enough land force to fight the USSR AND China, AND Burma, AND do the perimeter requirements.

And he works with a knife at the back of his neck every day.

I also think he wanted to do this "just to see." Not because he thinks it's a winning move.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

One time about two years ago (?) I counted up the Soviet infantry levels at the start and got something like 31 divisions and division equivalents. From memory. As you say, decent supply, and a lot more arty than China. Everybody always talks about how their air force is so weak, but Japan's level bombers aren't strong. If you move the fighters back out of the way and never confront him except with AA and forts I don't see how he begins to have enough land force to fight the USSR AND China, AND Burma, AND do the perimeter requirements.

And he works with a knife at the back of his neck every day.

I also think he wanted to do this "just to see." Not because he thinks it's a winning move.

+1 [&o] Kudos to Lowpe!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

One time about two years ago (?) I counted up the Soviet infantry levels at the start and got something like 31 divisions and division equivalents. From memory. As you say, decent supply, and a lot more arty than China. Everybody always talks about how their air force is so weak, but Japan's level bombers aren't strong. If you move the fighters back out of the way and never confront him except with AA and forts I don't see how he begins to have enough land force to fight the USSR AND China, AND Burma, AND do the perimeter requirements.

And he works with a knife at the back of his neck every day.

I also think he wanted to do this "just to see." Not because he thinks it's a winning move.

The main issue is replacements. None come until 44 for the Soviet air groups. So it'll be a 3-4 month shot and a lot to training time for the next 18 months. I'm curious to see how the Soviet AA performs. It looks tough on paper, with about half of the heavy units sporting the 88mm guns and lots of 37mm that work up to 7k.

I just counted up the industry, and it looks like ~600 supply from HI/LI on map with the 1,400 from Soviet base off map and the 4,000 "magic" supply from the same base. That's ~6k a turn, or 180,000 a month!! [X(]

I'll be trying to shift a bunch froward early and of course try to get some into China. The fuel will eventually run out unless I repair and use Oka wells to transport and refine in Komsomolsk. That seems both too complicated and too much of a gift to Japan. They'll see those fields as ripe if they are in working order. I wonder if Urumchi fuel will flow in Soviet off-map and back around?

[CaptBeefheart]

Lowpe likes a challenge. Kudos to the guy for pushing the game to its limits.

Cheers,
CC

[Lokasenna]

6k supply per day doesn't actually sound like that much to me.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

6k supply per day doesn't actually sound like that much to me.

It's not when you factor in needed fort-building. Still, better than China.

Another reason to minimize the air war and focus on the ground with the Reds. For two years. [:'(]

[obvert]

[font="Times New Roman"]Jan 21, 1942[/font]

---

SOVIETS ARE ACTIVE!!!

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]SOVIETS: [/font] This was a pretty conservative beginning for the Soviets. A few troops moving, some real, some maskirovkas. Some shoring up weak points and moving to the rear.

A few strikes go in over the night as recon tries to sort out what bases are defended most heavily. Only two Oil hits on Shikuka, but those take out 8 points of oil. Nice!! [8D]

In the day the DB-3T hit Kushiro for 17 resource point hits. While this seems less than important, actually Kushiro, Sapporo and Sakhalin resources are critical to the economy functioning well throughout the war, and will he actually repair resource point damage? Probably not. I will try to hit oil, but this seemed a god start, and does yield strat VPs. A reported 58 gained today!

I'll move quickly and try to get troops into forward x3 positions just beyond the border forts. Many divisions still filling out disabled. Annoying.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]SUBS: [/font]We've been tracking an escape by the damaged ships from Balikpapan. Interesting tactic to put them in a slow TF with a bunch of merchies and escorts. I like it. Except that it's working so far. Got some good attacks, but no hits to the cruisers. Still, the one failure of this method is that they're very easy to track, and they have a long way to go.

On the other side of the DEI Sargo gets a shot to hit from a spread of four fish on CL Isuzu. This may be critical. No sign of her after the attack either.

A Dutch sub also finds the BBs heading to Singers. They are protected by a lot of DDs, and KX goes for DD Urakaze but misses.

KVII does hit xAP Yoshino Maru with 2 torps and some troops also look to go down with the ship near Dongala. Nice!

Plunger also strikes an AKE and it shows heavy damage near Simushiri-Jima.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]DEI: [/font] Another bombardment looks imminent at Singers. BBs make it to within 4 hexes. A sacrificial TB goes in and hits a mine. Might sink. I'll lay more mines overnight. Hope the CD guns finally show up here.

The 4Es hit Samarinda for 6 oil point hits, yielding another 12 or so damage to the oil. We do lose a B-17E flying a bit too low for a DBB game. I'll get back to 7k for tomorrow's action. Going for Palembang!!

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]PACIFIC: [/font] The CVs will head back to Pearl for some upgrades and to refill air groups. I need more CVs to be dangerous here, and I will move back North soon. I'd like to force the KB into open water where subs can be most effective away from LBA ASW.

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]CHINA: [/font] The AVG continues to sweep Canton, again taking out a few Nates with no losses. Chipping away. Next the SB-III went in to hit the industry here. Got 1 HI point hit.

[font="Trebuchet MS"][/font]
[font="Trebuchet MS"]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jan 21, 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ASW attack near Donggala at 68,97

Japanese Ships
DMS W-16
CA Suzuya, heavy damage
CL Kiso, heavy damage
DD Shikinami, heavy damage
PB Nagata Maru
SC Ch 3
xAK Tyoko Maru
xAK Argun Maru
xAK Matsukawa Maru
DD Okikaze
PB Shonan Maru #17
PB Nikkai Maru

Allied Ships
SS KVIII

SS KVIII launches 2 torpedoes at DMS W-16
KVIII diving deep ....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submarine attack near Muntok at 50,89

Japanese Ships
CL Isuzu, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS Sargo

CL Isuzu is sighted by SS Sargo
SS Sargo launches 4 torpedoes at CL Isuzu

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Donggala at 70,96

Japanese Ships
CA Kako, heavy damage
CA Suzuya, heavy damage
CL Kiso, heavy damage
DD Shikinami, heavy damage
PB Nagata Maru
SC Ch 3
DMS W-16
xAK Hakusika Maru
xAK Kosin Maru #2
xAK Yamagiku Maru
DD Okikaze
PB Shonan Maru #17
PB Nikkai Maru

Allied Ships
SS Sturgeon

SS Sturgeon launches 4 torpedoes at CA Kako

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Billiton at 53,92

Japanese Ships
DD Urakaze
BB Mutsu
BB Kirishima
CL Abukuma
DD Minazuki
DD Kasumi
DD Natsugumo
DD Kuretake
DD Yunagi
DD Ayanami
DD Samidare

Allied Ships
SS KX, hits 1

SS KX launches 4 torpedoes at DD Urakaze
KX bottoming out ....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 61 encounters mine field at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Ships
TB Kiji, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submarine attack near Donggala at 68,97

Japanese Ships
xAP Yoshino Maru, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS KVIII

Japanese ground losses:
41 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

xAP Yoshino Maru is sighted by SS KVIII
SS KVIII launches 4 torpedoes at xAP Yoshino Maru

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Air attack on Shikuka , at 126,43

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 26 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
DB-3M x 4

No Allied losses

Oil hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x DB-3M bombing from 6000 feet
City Attack: 10 x 100 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submarine attack near Shimushiri-jima at 131,48

Japanese Ships
AKE Kiyama Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS Plunger

AKE Kiyama Maru is sighted by SS Plunger
SS Plunger launches 2 torpedoes

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Canton , at 77,59

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 28 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 7

Allied aircraft
H81-A3 x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-27b Nate: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
24 x H81-A3 sweeping at 20000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Canton , at 77,59

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid spotted at 25 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 3

Allied aircraft
H81-A3 x 13
SB-III x 28

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
SB-III: 4 damaged

Heavy Industry hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x SB-III bombing from 10000 feet *
City Attack: 3 x 100 kg GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Kushiro , at 123,53

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 47 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 16 minutes

Allied aircraft
DB-3T x 49

No Allied losses

Resources hits 17

Aircraft Attacking:
24 x DB-3T bombing from 2000 feet
City Attack: 2 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Samarinda , at 65,96

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 11 NM, estimated altitude 3,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 29

Allied aircraft
B-339D x 4
B-17D Fortress x 4
B-17E Fortress x 13

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-17D Fortress: 1 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 6 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 1 destroyed by flak


Aircraft Attacking:
7 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 2000 feet *
City Attack: 4 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Samarinda , at 65,96

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 10 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 21

Allied aircraft
B-339D x 4
B-17E Fortress x 6

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged

Oil hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 2000 feet *
City Attack: 4 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Samarinda , at 65,96

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 13

Allied aircraft
B-339D x 1
B-17D Fortress x 1

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-339D: 1 destroyed
B-17D Fortress: 1 damaged

Oil hits 1

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x B-17D Fortress bombing from 5000 feet *
City Attack: 4 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Samarinda , at 65,96

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 4,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 9

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 9

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 2 damaged

Oil hits 3

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 2000 feet *
City Attack: 4 x 500 lb GP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/color][/font]

---

[font="Trebuchet MS"]It's not Doolittle, but very fun to hit the Home Islands so early with no losses!!! [8D][&o][/font]

---

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

6k supply per day doesn't actually sound like that much to me.

It's not when you factor in needed fort-building. Still, better than China.

Another reason to minimize the air war and focus on the ground with the Reds. For two years. [:'(]

All forts have been building since Dec 8, so pretty much everything is on the way to level 4. I'd guess forts will be done in the next two months at most critical bases. I might build some over 6, but the terrain is good enough I shouldn't have to except for a few critical bases in the clear.

I think 6k a day sounds like quite a lot. Consider we make so much out of the Burma road to China, which is 500/day. And that is significant for China doing well in game.

Vlad also has a good stockpile to begin at 220k, and other bases are in full supply. Soviet base has 120k as well. So I'm not too concerned about supply yet, and Bull is right about the air force. Once it's apparent there is no benefit to using them forward, I'll just sit back and train pilots, let the AA do it's work, and occasionally maybe strike at industry where there is an opening.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: obvert

I think 6k a day sounds like quite a lot. Consider we make so much out of the Burma road to China, which is 500/day. And that is significant for China doing well in game.

Vlad also has a good stockpile to begin at 220k, and other bases are in full supply. Soviet base has 120k as well. So I'm not too concerned about supply yet, and Bull is right about the air force. Once it's apparent there is no benefit to using them forward, I'll just sit back and train pilots, let the AA do it's work, and occasionally maybe strike at industry where there is an opening.

I'm fighting in China in a stock 1 game in May 1942. Burma Road closed, but I'm still able to do a fair bit without it due to organic supply, and Sian still pumping fuel. I'd be like a pig in . . . mud . . . with 6000 a day though.

I think Forts 6 is plenty almost everywhere. Vlad is a linchpin and should get 9 if possible.

Hitting his oil now has to be infuriating. And strat VPs in 1/42 . . . man. Certainly psyops fodder. In a nice way of course. [:)]

AE is such an airplane-centric game that few players can imagine operating for long periods with air power mostly a non-factor. In the USSR it can be. Let him batter his 2E force against your AA. Later, Soviet AA is just monstrous, and mobile. (In 1945 I think there are AA DIVISIONS if I remember correctly.) Just train pilots and thumb your nose at him now. He's going to find what Napoleon and Hitler found--Russia eats up troops. It's immense.

If this game goes past 1/1/44 it'll be a miracle.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

6k supply per day doesn't actually sound like that much to me.

It's not when you factor in needed fort-building. Still, better than China.

Another reason to minimize the air war and focus on the ground with the Reds. For two years. [:'(]

I think 6k a day sounds like quite a lot. Consider we make so much out of the Burma road to China, which is 500/day. And that is significant for China doing well in game.

Vlad also has a good stockpile to begin at 220k, and other bases are in full supply. Soviet base has 120k as well. So I'm not too concerned about supply yet, and Bull is right about the air force. Once it's apparent there is no benefit to using them forward, I'll just sit back and train pilots, let the AA do it's work, and occasionally maybe strike at industry where there is an opening.

I don't [:'(].

So you have 2 stockpiles totaling 340K supplies, and get 6K per day production right now. Production - not surplus. Will you even have any surplus once fighting begins in earnest? How long will those stockpiles last once you no longer have any surplus production and are in the red?

Asking the real questions here.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58




It's not when you factor in needed fort-building. Still, better than China.

Another reason to minimize the air war and focus on the ground with the Reds. For two years. [:'(]

I think 6k a day sounds like quite a lot. Consider we make so much out of the Burma road to China, which is 500/day. And that is significant for China doing well in game.

Vlad also has a good stockpile to begin at 220k, and other bases are in full supply. Soviet base has 120k as well. So I'm not too concerned about supply yet, and Bull is right about the air force. Once it's apparent there is no benefit to using them forward, I'll just sit back and train pilots, let the AA do it's work, and occasionally maybe strike at industry where there is an opening.

I don't [:'(].

So you have 2 stockpiles totaling 340K supplies, and get 6K per day production right now. Production - not surplus. Will you even have any surplus once fighting begins in earnest? How long will those stockpiles last once you no longer have any surplus production and are in the red?

Asking the real questions here.

I'll be trying to see how much the Soviets use per day and per week, but to tell you the truth, I have no idea right now. With 5,400 of this supply generation happening off map it does seem like a lot, since so much can't be lost.

Have you done some math? Do you know something I don't? [;)]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert





I think 6k a day sounds like quite a lot. Consider we make so much out of the Burma road to China, which is 500/day. And that is significant for China doing well in game.

Vlad also has a good stockpile to begin at 220k, and other bases are in full supply. Soviet base has 120k as well. So I'm not too concerned about supply yet, and Bull is right about the air force. Once it's apparent there is no benefit to using them forward, I'll just sit back and train pilots, let the AA do it's work, and occasionally maybe strike at industry where there is an opening.

I don't [:'(].

So you have 2 stockpiles totaling 340K supplies, and get 6K per day production right now. Production - not surplus. Will you even have any surplus once fighting begins in earnest? How long will those stockpiles last once you no longer have any surplus production and are in the red?

Asking the real questions here.

I'll be trying to see how much the Soviets use per day and per week, but to tell you the truth, I have no idea right now. With 5,400 of this supply generation happening off map it does seem like a lot, since so much can't be lost.

Have you done some math? Do you know something I don't? [;)]

I can tell you that you can look at the supplies required numbers for your units and divide that by 30, then round up to the nearest integer. That will give you a supply usage number per unit, per day.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna




I don't [:'(].

So you have 2 stockpiles totaling 340K supplies, and get 6K per day production right now. Production - not surplus. Will you even have any surplus once fighting begins in earnest? How long will those stockpiles last once you no longer have any surplus production and are in the red?

Asking the real questions here.

I'll be trying to see how much the Soviets use per day and per week, but to tell you the truth, I have no idea right now. With 5,400 of this supply generation happening off map it does seem like a lot, since so much can't be lost.

Have you done some math? Do you know something I don't? [;)]

I can tell you that you can look at the supplies required numbers for your units and divide that by 30, then round up to the nearest integer. That will give you a supply usage number per unit, per day.

Cool. I'll try that.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I also think he wanted to do this "just to see." Not because he thinks it's a winning move.

That's why I like Lowp.

I've considered most of his stunts myself at one point or another. Whereas with me, they tend to get binned at the paper stage as being impractical, Lowpe will do it.

In doing so, he's gaining an insight into the game that very few players will get on the PBEM stage.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I also think he wanted to do this "just to see." Not because he thinks it's a winning move.

That's why I like Lowp.

I've considered most of his stunts myself at one point or another. Whereas with me, they tend to get binned at the paper stage as being impractical, Lowpe will do it.

In doing so, he's gaining an insight into the game that very few players will get on the PBEM stage.

Very few players, but ALL of his opponents! [&o]

I'm pretty excited to play this game even though it's a tough one.

[obvert]

Still haven't gotten the next turn back. Jeff's real life and the events in his Jocke game keeping him more than busy. I think he realises too that these turns are critical and doesn't want to screw anything up right now.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


I can tell you that you can look at the supplies required numbers for your units and divide that by 30, then round up to the nearest integer. That will give you a supply usage number per unit, per day.

So I went through the numbers. It looks like about 1850/day in supply usage for all units. That is adding a bit extra requirement in too.

Adding in groups flying CAP and bombing runs I'm sure it's another 500-800 depending on the day.

Without intense combat there should be some significant surpluses. I will have to be careful to keep a good amount of the surplus in the Southern areas in case of a rail cut. I'll be trying to max out al of those bases in supply soon. A few bases have high fort levels already, and won't need to build much if any more. I will just keep building to level 6 in most locations though.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


I can tell you that you can look at the supplies required numbers for your units and divide that by 30, then round up to the nearest integer. That will give you a supply usage number per unit, per day.

So I went through the numbers. It looks like about 1850/day in supply usage for all units. That is adding a bit extra requirement in too.

Adding in groups flying CAP and bombing runs I'm sure it's another 500-800 depending on the day.

Without intense combat there should be some significant surpluses. I will have to be careful to keep a good amount of the surplus in the Southern areas in case of a rail cut. I'll be trying to max out al of those bases in supply soon. A few bases have high fort levels already, and won't need to build much if any more. I will just keep building to level 6 in most locations though.

No need to add "a bit extra" - I had large sample sizes made up of many days looking at individual units. The divide by 30, round up to integer, holds. E.g., required 315 = 11 supplies per day. Required 31 = 2 supplies per day. Etc.

You could add up your CAP and whatnot, and engineers building forts.

I'd say a surplus of 3700 per day before engineers wouldn't be unreasonable, although I wouldn't do much bombing. The Soviet bombing units are lackluster and the terrain is not favorable. Just enough to keep him honest, nothing more.