FIFTY SHADES OF WiTE: SILLYFLOWER V BRIANG

[sillyflower]

POST 1000 [:)]

Unless someone responds to what I've written above whilst I type this. Many thanks to all those who have contributed to this by posting. I will try to make this one interesting.

As a mainly R player, I have concluded that almost all my G opponents attack either for too long in '42 and/or too much in later years. I suppose that it may makes sense if the G player expects to resign early, but it won't help anyone playing the long game. The key issue is how I define what is too much G offensive action. The answer is simple and is easy for any player to spot.

The decisive success factor in virtually every game is the loss ratio between the 2 sides. I know that capture of factories inc. baby factories matters as does relatives OOBs. However these are all very dependent on the loss ratios. Kill large enough numbers of baddies whilst keeping your losses down will give you the ability to do the other things. Don't kill enough Russians in the summer '41 and the R army will stay strong enough so you won't get the terrain and factories you need. Losing too many germans in the first winter is more likely if you lost too many before then. By end Nov '41 killing 2.5M R for the loss of 500K axis is better than killing 2.7M for losses of 700K. 3M to 600K is obviously much better because 5:1 is a great loss ratio if you are the '1'. Lose too much by spring '42 and you will struggle to get anywhere in '42 unless the Rs are particularly weak.

My distinction between loss ratios and OOBs may seem a bit artificial in the early stages because it is hard for the G player to wreck the Wehrmacht in the 1st few months. However, if you look at Brian's 1st winter O, you will see that the loss ratios were bad for him so that in the spring of '42 I was relatively much stronger than him.

I will have to finish this tomorrow.............

[TunganNinja]

Looks like the Wehrmacht is in good hands this game. I find it fascinating that you have gotten to this level of stalemate with Brian. It is already Dec. 1943, and still it is anyone's game. I'm amazed at his recovery from his late '42 defeats, since he is still able to grind for land with his many armoured forces. Still, if you play a patient game, time is on your side. Wow, saying it outloud that's a really weird thing to say about G in WitE, heh.

Also thank you for the warm welcome. I've actually been following your game for at least a year, can't believe it has taken me this long to post. Hoping to see G in Penza this game. Maybe in '45.

Edit: When I say stalemate, I mean Brian can't get to Moscow, and when I say anyone's game, I mean you won this game by a landslide. Gotta give credit when it is due.

[sillyflower]

I have just spent 40 mins typing this post only to be timed out [:@], so am trying again with frequent saving, hoping that I can remember what I wrote....

loss ratios part 2

The hard part is knowing what a good loss ratio is. For G, 5:1 before the 1st blizzard is good, but that would be rubbish for the 1st 5 turns. My rule of thumb (which I have just invented for this post) is 4:1 is good for G in '42 and less than 3:1 is good for R. If your ratio is good, then obviously the higher actual totals the better, and the opposite applies if the ratio is poor. In '43, 2.5 to 1 is likely to be good for G. These numbers are roughly based on comparative replacement rates and should be seen only as a starting point. For example, for G, captives make HIWIs which add to G replacements which has the same effect as lowering G losses.

However, loss ratios are not everything even though they are usually the key to eventual victory. After all in chess (which is the game where the loss ratio probably matters more than in any other) the sacrifice of a piece may be the key to eventual victory.

The successful player then has to know when sacrificing the loss ratio will lead to greater benefits in this or subsequent turns. In my experience, players are much more likely to attack to much rather than too seldom so perhaps the trick is to understand better when not to attack.As a R player, there is nothing I like to see than G being too aggressive in '42 or '43 -or later but so few games get into '44. Attacking R inf, especially in forts, will produce almost always a v. poor loss ratio for G. Of itself, this just weakens the axis and makes my task of grinding my way to Berlin so much easier. Some may say there is a morale benefit for the G in doing this. I disagree. It helps my morale a lot, and the weakening of the axis makes it easier for me to attack successfully; thus it's the soviets who end up with the greater morale benefit.

So when is attacking after '41 any good?

1 When it will give a good loss ratio. That doesn't have to be every turn. The best pockets very often take 2 or 3 turns to create

2 when there is some other benefit such as gaining useful ground or lots of baby or other factories in the area. Not all ground is of use. Regaining ground to buy time may be sensible especially if time is tight for the Bolsheviks to get a win.

3 If you just like attacking and don't care that much about any long term downside. It's only a game so there's no point if you don't enjoy playing it.

[sillyflower]

deleted

[sillyflower]

So how do all of my ramblings of the last couple of days translate into a plan? Going back to Brian's 3 shortages (men,time and trucks) the plan is to

1. Try to ensure no pockets (especially of G units) with freeing them a priority whilst avoiding the trap of throwing good units after bad.

2. Focus on kicking his armour (which now sort of includes the cav xxx) whenever it sticks its nose out. Secure pockets will be almost impossible unless Brian gets very rash, so the focus has to be on routing them or at least to cause ZOC to ZOC retreats. These can of course lead to routs if over-stacking leads to retreats of more than 1 hex. I will only go after the inf xxx if necessary to cut off penetrations (most effective in blizzard when inf xxx move slowly) or to enable armour-whacking. This strategy should also make the R player more cautious, but who knows if Brian will be affected........

3 Keep a paranoid eye over loss ratios, but at the same time try to maximise R casualties.

4 Ignore my plan if a better option emerges at any point. It was Pitaman who told me about the frustrations of a Russian general trying to teach US army doctrine to soviet officers. The general said it was rather pointless because Americans don't follow their own doctrine, and nobody cares when they don't.

[Stelteck]

your position is really good currently. All you light are green.

You could of course probably secure a victory by conservative play, strong monitoring of looses and cautious actions, but maybe you will get bore of that.

Maybe you should think big and try an aggressive and ambitious plan to completely destroy the soviet army by all out offensive. Whatever it succeed or not it would be a great time for everyone (you, your opponent, and all the fans reading this AAR [;)]).

Aim to the sky !!!

[sillyflower]

You write as a true Frenchman Stelteck, and I mean that in a good way: not suggesting that you want the Englishman to be defeated [;)].

However, I am a mere Anglo-Saxon with only a very small amount of french ancestry. You will know from your history books that we prefer to win by fighting defensively.

[Stelteck]

Ha ha true !!!
Victory or defeat is not important, what is matter is to be superbe / magnificent [:D]

[sillyflower]

Ah yes, that famous Russian actor as he now is [:D]*, and I'm delighted to learn that your national sports teams and their supporters don't care if they win or not, as long as they look good.


* Editor's note: Mr Depardieu became a Russian citizen a few years ago to escape the French tax system. I dare not say more otherwise I risk falling foul of the 'no politics' rule.

[sillyflower]

Anyway, I carry on in my boring English way.

T127 con't. Still 1 inf xxx, 1 cav xxx and 1 mech x in the pocket (picture on previous page [:(] ) as I make another attempt to wipe them out. I meant to take screenshots of losses but forgot, but I think they were approx 26K to 85K; air 200 to 700 (I forgot to turn off ground support at the end of my previous turn). Over 2K AFVs destroyed and 2K trucks captured. Only other news: I spotted 2 rocket xx participating in an attack. I still haven't seen any regular arty divs, but that may be just inadequate study of Brian's attacks.

[Michael T]

This game must surely go in to record books as one of the longest (in real time terms) in the history of WITE AAR's. I commend your resolve David.

[sillyflower]

Thanks Michael but the real credit must go to Brian - and to the rule change giving the Russians virtually free unit returns which made it possible for him to survive. I think the game also has the most AAR posts ever - over 1800 so far so our readers must also have a lot of resolve [&o]

[sillyflower]

T128. A bit behind hand as Brian is doing his T131, but here goes



Groundhog day as the Brianites re-open the pocket and I re-close it as strongly as I can. Combat screen shows how expensive it can be even to do a soak-off. Nothing much if anything going on out of sight from this screenshot.

[sillyflower]

losses - sorry it looks slightly strange but I had saved in the wrong format initially



Very happy with these figures even if not quite as good as last turn in which I think the Bolsheviks lost over 2000 AFV types and had over 2K trucks captured. I don't know what the capture:loss ratio is for trucks but losing over 3K in 3 turns must hurt.

I just need to be able to keep it up but it will get harder as the combat losses show the Brianites are getting better equipment in greater numbers. The soviets lost about 3K+ AFVs etc in 3 weeks but I'm sure there are inexhaustible reserve pools. However, hammering the tanks will keep the combat power of those units down as they lose morale and experience.

[Crackaces]

I for one am very appreciative that this game continued. WitE has gone through multiple revisions -- especially to the combat system. This AAR documents "Unentschieden" (battle lines with limited breakout) with 1.11 software behavior.
Even if the "mildly capitalist" lose decisively .. there are lessons for the rest of us . and I bet Brian is enjoying the journey ..

Anyway thanks for keeping the AAR up.

[sillyflower]

air losses

[sillyflower]

T138 OOBs



Re manpower G are down 30K and R up by the same amount in the last 12 turns, but some of the G change is probably due to withdrawls.

[Stelteck]

365 T-34 destroyed in one normal week of battle

[sillyflower]

That's nothing. It was 900+ on T137 when the baddies lost 2K AFVs

[sillyflower]

T129





As the Brianites managed to break the pocket again after countless attacks (something at which he excels), I am forced to rout the trapped units out otherwise they would just be rescued and free to walk out. The red air force paid a high price though.