Islands of Destiny: RA 5.0 Japanese Side

[Lowpe]

I think if there is a potential area of improvement for John in his next game I would think it would be more attention to the economy and more attention to the late war plane builds.

Here we are 4th quarter 1944 and Japan's economy is strong but short on pools.

There still is a strong IJN and Japan's fighter strength is not yet broken although, alas, no Frank R, no Ki94 or Shinden, no George 5 or Ki83

VP ratio is strong.

Very hard to find any fault with John's prosecution of the war with the exception of pools and late war plane builds.

Of course all this can change in the blink of an eye....maybe.

Balance those accomplishments against the advantage of a significantly stronger IJN than in a scen 1 game.

[John 3rd]

Nice summary Lowpe. I would go the same way in thinking about this match. I've spoken frequently that I've never truly gone this deep into a match. It is all a learning process. NEXT game will be far different. You can take that promise to the bank.

On the late-war planes, I focused planes for the end of 1944 and NOT 1945. Vert short sighted of me.

[John 3rd]

October 5, 1944

Single FIXED purpose. That is a description of my opponent.

With a little risk, a huge, fat plum hung from low-lying branches and he didn't deviate from his escort mission one iota. That is impressively stubborn!

The Tankers get through. Simply put I can load 350,000 more fuel/oil starting in about 5 days.

Order all the slower 12 Knot TKs at Saipan to move towards the DEI. We'll bring them to load up as well.

We're not concentrating ALL TKs into one or two big TFs and then running them through. As fast as they can be loaded, we'll gather them and shoot them through the Mindanao--Celebes Gap.

A Tanker Convoy is presently leaving Balikpapan carrying 125,000 Fuel. It will cross the Gap in 2-3 days.

Now we shoot as many TKs back as fast as possible. Every 100,000 buys about half a month of production. We shall continue the Tanker Convoy numbers rolling. The one coming out of Borneo shall be TK-7.

[John 3rd]

Shifting those Night-Fighters to be BELOW the B-29s attacks at night has been pretty effective. He has concentrated on attacking locations in Kyushu and I have managed to up my AA in the threatened area. His raids come in, do little damage (so far), and then get hit by the combined NF and AA. Results are pretty good. Here is October 5th:

[adarbrauner]

Is present b 29 loss rate sustainable?

[Kitakami]

ORIGINAL: adarbrauner

Is present b 29 loss rate sustainable?

If things have not changed, the USAAF gets 58 B-29s a month. 17 lost in a day is not a tempo he can maintain.

[John 3rd]

Great!

[Bearcat2]

US gets 18/month until 11/44; when it increases to 40/month in this scenario

[John 3rd]

SWEET!

[JohnDillworth]

That is the replacement rate. New units show up in bunches too. Still, that rate of loss is not sustainable

[Bif1961]

40% loss rate in one raid is never sustainable.

[BillBrown]

But, behind the FoW, how many did he really lose?

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

That is the replacement rate. New units show up in bunches too. Still, that rate of loss is not sustainable

If I recall, there are about 30 squadrons of the first b29 with between 7 and 10 planes each, and the 2nd b29 starts rolling in with new squadrons in Nov or Dec. Nov I think.

not to rain on the parade but in truth the allies have almost unlimited 4E bombers to throw at you...you just need to keep shooting them down and not let them break your fighter back or destroy your industry without extracting a price.

the power of the b29 is their range as they stretch your fighter defenses leaving you vulnerable to the shorter range 4E beasties. Wait till he uses the deathstar to sweep during the day followed by 4E daytime raids. Very devastating....

[palioboy2]

Also can those sort of loses be replicated. If this is an outlier and the norm is 1 or 2 then it could be sustainable.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

But, behind the FoW, how many did he really lose?

a lot less...but damaged b29s are pretty good. You are trying to slow the bombing campaign down.

I don't think the Allies have flown in a 200 plane strike yet (maybe Singers during the day)..and it seems to me Japan is vulnerable to that. 600 Plane raids aren't out of the question...

jocke v Obvert is a great, perhaps the greatest AAR on NF and strategic bombing in AAR land...and started off with a HR against it just like in this game....and those HR always come back to bite Japan the hardest.

If the Allies pursue a dedicated night bombing campaign against Japan...

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

Also can those sort of loses be replicated. If this is an outlier and the norm is 1 or 2 then it could be sustainable.

usually the math is one NF for one b29....lets face it the Nick D and irving Sa are very slow, and if you don't match the altitude just right...it gets ugly fast. Also when you get 10-15 waves over the target those last couple of waves with no opposition really lay waste to the city.

[John 3rd]

It has been rather heartening to get to this point and have the industry intact.

Other observation is that Dan has not decided what to focus on with his attacks. Mostly he has been hitting Manpower in Kyushu. Occasionally he has hit resources but that is about it for the moment.

Using the 1.0x6^10 against the Mainland, means pulling it off of glorified convoy escort duty. He hasn't shown that sort of work/inclination for a year in time. Not saying it won't happen just saying it isn't likely in the foreseeable future. When it does happen life will get very tough for Japan.

[John 3rd]

October 6, 1944

Allied Subs have not been much of a factor in this game. This day nearly changes that. The USS Sea Poacher is sailing near the Marianas when the Shokaku-Class CV Ryukaku fills its sights. The Commander orders a full spread of TTs fired! Three pass ahead of the big CV, one does hit just aft of the bow, the fifth is a DUD (thank goodness), and the sixth passes astern. Six Moon-Class DDs pound the sub as the TF moves away heading for Saipan.

Examination of the damage reveals: NOTHING! OK. A bit of an exaggeration. SYS 5, FLOT 1, and ENG 2--That is all.

NICE!

[Lowpe]

Love the names of your new ships...even the class names.[&o]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

That is the replacement rate. New units show up in bunches too. Still, that rate of loss is not sustainable

If I recall, there are about 30 squadrons of the first b29 with between 7 and 10 planes each, and the 2nd b29 starts rolling in with new squadrons in Nov or Dec. Nov I think.

not to rain on the parade but in truth the allies have almost unlimited 4E bombers to throw at you...you just need to keep shooting them down and not let them break your fighter back or destroy your industry without extracting a price.

the power of the b29 is their range as they stretch your fighter defenses leaving you vulnerable to the shorter range 4E beasties. Wait till he uses the deathstar to sweep during the day followed by 4E daytime raids. Very devastating....

A lot of players don't take advantage of the tweak in the last official patch which makes carrier raids much more easier to pull off. You can now target a city before your carriers are in range-allowing for a fast undetected run in to hit a oil center or lightly defended industrial target. What with the number of planes he can throw at you-backed by replenishment groups a 200 fighter CAP could easily be overwhelmed. Don't know whey he does not try it. I would. Likewise he could run in a carrier groups and send sweepers and long range CAP at a target to support a B29 raid in daylight. Daylight raids if they hit home will pretty much one shot a target. One thing is sure in this mod, you can't bomb without good fighter support. He could put 300 fighters over a target and still have massive CAP over his carriers.