Hypothetical Question

[Korvar]

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

There are many reasons why Guam is the perfect Pacific stronghold. Mostly due to "the goldilocks factor". It's small enough to defend , large enough to hold a tremendous number of troops. Apra harbor is a great deal larger than the Gorn realizes. Not only COULD it hold the bulk of the US fleet, after August 1944 , it DID! There were 4 massive airfields built, and several smaller. There could have been more. And the strangest reason is a secret hidden within it's name. According to Chamorro's (the native people of the Marianas) Guam's name was derived from Guuham. Litterly "We have water". It may sound like a chamber of commerce slogan , but Guam has lots and lots of water. Most Pacific island have enough for the locals , but not much more. Guam could easily export it. Not a bad thing to have when you have over a million troops on the island. (Which they could...apologies to the ill informed congressman who thought 5,000 Marines would make the island flip over. For many years the island held a quarter of a million PERMANETLTY assigned troops.)

The point is ANY base can be taken , if everything around it is taken. EVENTUALLY. Pearl Harbor could have been in that fix. But instead of seeing Guam as a "Ft. Apache", surrounded and cut off, planners of the day saw it as a forward deployed beach head capable of menacing Japan with aircraft , surface ships and most of all submarines. As it did shortly after "Liberation day" in July 1944, when SUBPAC, PACKFLT and Nimitz moved their head quarters there. And Guam became the biggest supply base in the Pacific (a position it held till after the Vietnam war).

Excellent analysis. I suppose you once being based there has something to do with that? [:D]

Your point on a fresh water supply really hits the nail on the head. There are other bases that might give Guam reasonable competition as far as anchorage/land mass/etc. go, but this quote from Beans, Bullets, and Black Oil illustrates the point very well:

"Water became a major problem in the middle of the largest of all oceans. There was little or no fresh water on many atolls while the demands for it on islands with some supply were too great for the local sources. Another major factor in water requirement was the fact that hundreds of small vessels were not equipped with their own distilling apparatus or found their tank capacity insufficient when at sea for extended periods. To supply water, several new tankers of the oiler and gasoline tanker types were employed for more than a year solely in transporting pure water from supply points at Oa'hu, Guam, and Manus to anchorages where the fleet was temporarily based [...]"

(emphasis mine)

We all know from playing WitPAE how precious the TK and AO types are. That really says something that 1) some of these vessels were employed for more than a year(!) to deliver fresh water and 2) there were only three(!) viable sources in the Central Pacific, one of those being Pearl itself.

I think the shortcomings of Guam were:

1) the relative lack of security and navigability of the harbor:

"Squadron Twelve, nicknamed 'harbor stretcher,' had been commissioned in March 1944 for the primary purpose of increasing depths in channels and harbors where major fleet units would anchor, or where coral reefs and shallow water created serious navigational hazards.By far the largest operation Twelve undertook was at Guam"

I'm guessing the "Glass Breakwater", as well as (I assume) a deepening of the harbor, part of that effort?


2) its defensibility considering how far it was from the US (i.e. the need for fortifications and storage to hold it long enough until naval reinforcements could arrive in quantity from CONUS)

Both of these could be largely solved by throwing money at the problem, and Guam had enough going for it in all the other categories to make a plausible argument why such an expenditure would be warranted. The Depression-era spending cuts and treaties put an end to the development needed to make it truly a viable base before the US entered the war.

[Korvar]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

...and communications. How easy is it to isolate what is your main naval base? Surely that is a consideration?

I don't quite buy Guam as THE main base of the Pacific, even though the OP set the scenario that way. Even if the Philippines were out of the running, there is still Pearl Harbor. There is a really good argument for Guam as a forward operating base, but I don't think it would ever seriously compete with Pearl as the main base.

You bring up a really good point though - SIGINT could be a 'strategic quality' where Guam would shine - it's centrally located to pick up a lot of radio transmissions, which would be very helpful even during peacetime (material to break codes and such).

As far as the SLC, those are ultimately going to be decided by who has naval superiority. I think it was certainly possible to build Guam up to withstand a temporary siege, but that wasn't happening in the political and economic climate of the time.

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

...and communications. How easy is it to isolate what is your main naval base? Surely that is a consideration?

On theory , ANY island can have it's communications cut off. The UK COULD have in theory been cut off in two separate world wars. YES you can cut it off. But how much of your fleet are you willing to tie up on blockade duty and for how long? Again , at the time period ,most of the war colleges were saying amphibious landings were dead ( due largely to Gallipoli ). So that leaves blockade. Even in the Russo-Japanese war proved that to be impractical. The Russian base (Port Arthur) was taken by land action from the land side. (At a tremendously heavy cost). So reducing an island fortress was not particularly easy to do. And would remain that way till air power grew up (probably say late 1930's?).

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: Korvar

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

There are many reasons why Guam is the perfect Pacific stronghold. Mostly due to "the goldilocks factor". It's small enough to defend , large enough to hold a tremendous number of troops. Apra harbor is a great deal larger than the Gorn realizes. Not only COULD it hold the bulk of the US fleet, after August 1944 , it DID! There were 4 massive airfields built, and several smaller. There could have been more. And the strangest reason is a secret hidden within it's name. According to Chamorro's (the native people of the Marianas) Guam's name was derived from Guuham. Litterly "We have water". It may sound like a chamber of commerce slogan , but Guam has lots and lots of water. Most Pacific island have enough for the locals , but not much more. Guam could easily export it. Not a bad thing to have when you have over a million troops on the island. (Which they could...apologies to the ill informed congressman who thought 5,000 Marines would make the island flip over. For many years the island held a quarter of a million PERMANETLTY assigned troops.)

The point is ANY base can be taken , if everything around it is taken. EVENTUALLY. Pearl Harbor could have been in that fix. But instead of seeing Guam as a "Ft. Apache", surrounded and cut off, planners of the day saw it as a forward deployed beach head capable of menacing Japan with aircraft , surface ships and most of all submarines. As it did shortly after "Liberation day" in July 1944, when SUBPAC, PACKFLT and Nimitz moved their head quarters there. And Guam became the biggest supply base in the Pacific (a position it held till after the Vietnam war).

Excellent analysis. I suppose you once being based there has something to do with that? [:D]

Your point on a fresh water supply really hits the nail on the head. There are other bases that might give Guam reasonable competition as far as anchorage/land mass/etc. go, but this quote from Beans, Bullets, and Black Oil illustrates the point very well:

"Water became a major problem in the middle of the largest of all oceans. There was little or no fresh water on many atolls while the demands for it on islands with some supply were too great for the local sources. Another major factor in water requirement was the fact that hundreds of small vessels were not equipped with their own distilling apparatus or found their tank capacity insufficient when at sea for extended periods. To supply water, several new tankers of the oiler and gasoline tanker types were employed for more than a year solely in transporting pure water from supply points at Oa'hu, Guam, and Manus to anchorages where the fleet was temporarily based [...]"

(emphasis mine)

We all know from playing WitPAE how precious the TK and AO types are. That really says something that 1) some of these vessels were employed for more than a year(!) to deliver fresh water and 2) there were only three(!) viable sources in the Central Pacific, one of those being Pearl itself.

I think the shortcomings of Guam were:

1) the relative lack of security and navigability of the harbor:

"Squadron Twelve, nicknamed 'harbor stretcher,' had been commissioned in March 1944 for the primary purpose of increasing depths in channels and harbors where major fleet units would anchor, or where coral reefs and shallow water created serious navigational hazards.By far the largest operation Twelve undertook was at Guam"

I'm guessing the "Glass Breakwater", as well as (I assume) a deepening of the harbor, part of that effort?


2) its defensibility considering how far it was from the US (i.e. the need for fortifications and storage to hold it long enough until naval reinforcements could arrive in quantity from CONUS)

Both of these could be largely solved by throwing money at the problem, and Guam had enough going for it in all the other categories to make a plausible argument why such an expenditure would be warranted. The Depression-era spending cuts and treaties put an end to the development needed to make it truly a viable base before the US entered the war.

I lived there 1998 to early 2001. I was already retired from the Navy and was following my wife who was stationed there. To keep myself from going completely nuts , I worked at the Marianas Military Museum (then located at "Big Navy") and spent as much time touring the battlefields and talking to people who'd been there during the war years. From all three sides. Some of the most interesting people that I got to talk with there included the navigator that lead the land B-29 raid on Tokyo, a survivor of the Sumay massacre, The daughter of Tojo and the son of Rear Admiral Yamaguchi. It really was an amazing opportunity. The plans to fortify Guam had been of particular interest to me. [:)]

[DOCUP]

Great discussion guys. I was hoping for this.

Again, I'm sorry for not expressing myself in my first two posts. I only get a little time around my kids bedtime to get on here and read or post.

Yes, I said the main Pacific base, I should of said the main Far East base.

AW1Steve: Has mentioned most of the things I have read and not expressed very well. From what I have read and will try to express here. SLOC to the China market went through Pearl, Midway, Johnston, Wake, Guam, Philippines. Yes, Guam was isolated, but as AW1Steve said it was in the Goldilocks zone. Guam also had a lot going for it as Steve mentioned above. In the 20s and 30s a big base at Guam would be able to keep SLOC to the PI, and was mentioned that a big base could help protect the PI.

Ok I will have to get back to this.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: warspite1

...and communications. How easy is it to isolate what is your main naval base? Surely that is a consideration?

On theory , ANY island can have it's communications cut off. The UK COULD have in theory been cut off in two separate world wars. YES you can cut it off. But how much of your fleet are you willing to tie up on blockade duty and for how long? Again , at the time period ,most of the war colleges were saying amphibious landings were dead ( due largely to Gallipoli ). So that leaves blockade. Even in the Russo-Japanese war proved that to be impractical. The Russian base (Port Arthur) was taken by land action from the land side. (At a tremendously heavy cost). So reducing an island fortress was not particularly easy to do. And would remain that way till air power grew up (probably say late 1930's?).

warspite1

Well quite but the UK didn't choose its geographical location - mother nature kind of took care of that... whereas this would be a conscious decision to base the entire fleet at Guam.

Amphibious landings and taking the fortress are by the by. The point is, if this is the main base - so far from home, and with all assets in one basket - it is vulnerable to blockade and any ships damaged during any sea battle to break the blockade etc will likely have only one home to go to. And that home is being blockaded.

And what if some crises arises on the Atlantic seaboard? The Pacific Fleet assets could hardly be any further from the US. As the USN main Pacific base this makes no sense to me whatsoever - but is that really what they meant by 1st Class Base?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

Yes, I said the main Pacific base, I should of said the main Far East base.

warspite1

The main Far East base is a totally different issue. The PI was the main Far East base in 1941 - and we know what naval assets were placed there. So if Guam was given that role instead then no doubt the assets placed within would have been little different. But that is a completely different discussion. Please ignore my comments above as they were in response to:

DOCUP

Guam is the major US base in the pacific.

[Lecivius]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

As the USN main Pacific base this makes no sense to me whatsoever - but is that really what they meant by 1st Class Base?

I believe this is the misunderstanding. Guam could have become a major forward based military installation without becoming the home port of the Pacific Fleet. Just like the P.I., it could have had something along the lines of the Asiatic Fleet, some cruisers and destroyers. Support infrastructure. A serious ( not necessarily major, but still hefty) air field. Radio communication, or even a cable if that was in the budget. It wouldn't be Pearl Harbor. More like The Rock [;)]

[afspret]

In my mod I made based on Ironman I beefed up Guam by adding a naval base force thats more or less a USMC Def Bn with a few light tanks, naval and air support, plus created a separate unit called the Chamorro USMC Bn (similar to the Samoan unit at Pago Pago). I also added a VMF det of 6 F2A-3, a VMSB det with 8 SB2Us and small USN VJ unit with 4 SOCs. In addition I based two subs there along with a YO and 2 YPs. I initially took Trenton and the DDs from the TF they start the game in and placed them at Guam, but after running a couple of tests they were all sunk within three turns by air attack from Truk and Tinian/Saipan, so I put them back into their original TF.

In the PI I created some small CD units and put them at the traditional AI landing points and I beefed up some of the LCUs as well as putting the 70th PS/35th PG at Cagayan. I have also turned Cebu into a medium sized USMC base with relocated fighter, dive bomber, recon and naval patrol assets.

Long story short, the AI still took Guam, but it took 3 turns to do it instead of one and it rolled over the small CD units in the PI. Most fell in one turn, but one held on for 2 turns, and the only advantage I've noticed so far is the AI is suffering some damage to naval assets involved, the LCUs are suffering a few more casualties and its taking a couple of extra turns to capture a hex.

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Proposals to built Guam up to "a 1st rate base" were submitted in 1919 , 1930 by the Hepburn committee, and again in 1938. Funding was denied for the last one by congress, the 1919 proposal sunk by the WNT , and the Hepburn report was examined , and PARTS of it were acted upon, particularly the Build up of Midway, Johnson and Wake islands.

warspite1

What is the definition of a 1st Rate Base? The OP spoke of Guam being the US Naval base in the Pacific (and what I have been basing my comments on). Is that what was submitted in 1919?

1st class base? Damned if I know. I'd say from the time period somewhere between Pearl Harbor and Norfolk VA.

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: Lecivius

ORIGINAL: warspite1

As the USN main Pacific base this makes no sense to me whatsoever - but is that really what they meant by 1st Class Base?

I believe this is the misunderstanding. Guam could have become a major forward based military installation without becoming the home port of the Pacific Fleet. Just like the P.I., it could have had something along the lines of the Asiatic Fleet, some cruisers and destroyers. Support infrastructure. A serious ( not necessarily major, but still hefty) air field. Radio communication, or even a cable if that was in the budget. It wouldn't be Pearl Harbor. More like The Rock [;)]

I would suggest that if desired Guam could be built up to something akin to what it was in 1945. A full fleet base in every regard. A HUGE Naval hospital (actually several) 4 B-29 sized air fields , and 4 smaller. A massive Harbor (which became the headquarters of the US Pacific fleet). A naval shipyard with one permanent and several floating dry docks. A submarine base, rest camp and refit facility (along with several tenders). The central supply hub for the Pacific fleet was there. The Pacific Seabee command and main facilities were there. Pearl Harbor became pretty much a backwater. over 250,000 men and women were stationed (permanently) on the island. The only thing Guam couldn't do was construction of large fleet units (they could build small craft).

It was homeport for the 3rd and 5th fleets (on "Admiral's row" were five houses for four stars and above. Nimitz, Halsy and Spruance had permanent quarters there (you can see two of the houses which have survived repeated Typhoons) up on "Nimitz hill" today.

So I'd have to say to the question "what could they have built on Guam if they wanted to?" Pretty much anything they pleased.

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: afspret

In my mod I made based on Ironman I beefed up Guam by adding a naval base force thats more or less a USMC Def Bn with a few light tanks, naval and air support, plus created a separate unit called the Chamorro USMC Bn (similar to the Fijian unit at Pago Pago). I also added a VMF det of 6 F2A-3, a VMSB det with 8 SB2Us and small USN VC unit with 4 SOCs. In addition I based two subs there along with a YO and 2 YPs. I initially took Trenton and the DDs from the TF they start the game in and placed them at Guam, but after running a couple of tests they were all sunk within three turns by air attack from Truk and Tinian/Saipan, so I put them back into their original TF.

In the PI I created some small CD units and put them at the traditional AI landing points and I beefed up some of the LCUs as well as putting the 70th PS/35th PG at Cagayan. I have also turned Cebu into a medium sized USMC base with relocated fighter, dive bomber, recon and naval patrol assets.

Long story short, the AI still took Guam, but it took 3 turns to do it instead of one and it rolled over the small CD units in the PI. Most fell in one turn, but one held on for 2 turns, and the only advantage I've noticed so far is the AI is suffering some damage to naval assets involved, the LCUs are suffering a few more casualties and its taking a couple of extra turns to capture a hex.

In my Mod's "Richardson's war" and "The Flying squadron" Guam is pretty well built up. Large forts and ports (level 5 and 6) , the USMC regiment from the PI and CD and BF units. Also a Vindicator USMC squadron , a fighter squadron and a PBY squadron. With the same air groups on Wake and Midway. And several DM's. On all 3 bases , mines are your best friends. [:D]

[rustysi]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

One thought on this that springs to mind (and ignoring any restrictions that would perhaps be imposed retrospectively by the WNT). Why would the US seek to turn Guam into a major naval base? Just a look at a map of the Pacific and the distance from the US to Guam. France, the British Empire and, more realistically from a threat point of view, Japan, are relatively right on Guam's doorstep. The possibility of Guam being surrounded and cut-off would surely be too big a risk?

+1

Not having read all the to and fro beyond this point, I'm just going to inject my .02 at this point.

It would be an exercise in futility to try and build up any/all these 'dot bases' to an 'impregnable' state given their exposed positions.

I also doubt the U.S. had the 'constitution' to undertake such an effort at the time. Building huge military bases all over the map was simply not in the picture. Let us try and remember that at the start of the European war in 1939 the U.S. Army consisted of roughly 136,000 men. This at a time when a blind man could see that the continent 'over there' was going to implode once more. Not to mention the war in China was going on in one form or another for several years by this point. We simply didn't want to get into another war, no matter how blindly naive that may have been.

OK, I've got that off my chest. Talk amongst yourselves.[:D]

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

ORIGINAL: warspite1

One thought on this that springs to mind (and ignoring any restrictions that would perhaps be imposed retrospectively by the WNT). Why would the US seek to turn Guam into a major naval base? Just a look at a map of the Pacific and the distance from the US to Guam. France, the British Empire and, more realistically from a threat point of view, Japan, are relatively right on Guam's doorstep. The possibility of Guam being surrounded and cut-off would surely be too big a risk?

+1

Not having read all the to and fro beyond this point, I'm just going to inject my .02 at this point.

It would be an exercise in futility to try and build up any/all these 'dot bases' to an 'impregnable' state given their exposed positions.

I also doubt the U.S. had the 'constitution' to undertake such an effort at the time. Building huge military bases all over the map was simply not in the picture. Let us try and remember that at the start of the European war in 1939 the U.S. Army consisted of roughly 136,000 men. This at a time when a blind man could see that the continent 'over there' was going to implode once more. Not to mention the war in China was going on in one form or another for several years by this point. We simply didn't want to get into another war, no matter how blindly naive that may have been.

OK, I've got that off my chest. Talk amongst yourselves.[:D]

There's your trouble![:-][:D]

We were discussing Pre-Washington Naval Treaty plans....as a "what if?" question. In 1919 there was not only a will , but indeed a plan. By 1939 it was too late , and a much lower priority. Wake, Midway and Johnson came 1st , and the Philippines would be independent in 1944.

[rustysi]

In 1919 there was not only a will , but indeed a plan.

Maybe a plan, but I doubt the 'will' was fully there even in 1919. Its still an exercise in futility to try and build such 'stand alone' bases and think for one iota that they can exist on their own indefinitely.

Edit:

Wake, Midway and Johnson came 1st , and the Philippines

And none could be defended against a determined Japanese attack.

[AW1Steve]

ORIGINAL: rustysi

In 1919 there was not only a will , but indeed a plan.

Maybe a plan, but I doubt the 'will' was fully there even in 1919. Its still an exercise in futility to try and build such 'stand alone' bases and think for one iota that they can exist on their own indefinitely.

Edit:

Wake, Midway and Johnson came 1st , and the Philippines

And none could be defended against a determined Japanese attack.

Probably. So what's your point? When you are building "A Navy Second to None", what's surprising about building bases to keep it at? And no one ever built "impregnable" bases before. Like Gibraltar, Odessa or Singapore. No one ever thought bases could survive indefinitely. But survive "long enough". Your confusing "planning" with "reality". Don't forget...no war ever planned by politicians ever lasted past Christmas. It was always a "short , victorious war". What's wrong with you guys? Next your going to expect nations to maintain a balanced budget! [:D]

Reality is poor stuff compared to dreams , and war planning is generally sheer fantasy. [:'(] [:D]